Bob Duff: Howard Speculates On His Future Detroit Red Wings goaltender Jimmy Howard is in the last year of a contract that will pay him $4.25 million this season and could prove to be very attractive trade bait.

Remember when we had so much talent we were winning Cups with Ozzie in net. Now we have Howie on the back 9 of his career and Jon freakin Bernier and not a lot in front of them. Hard times be ahead in 18/19 Wings fans. Ugggh.

Remember when we had so much talent we were winning Cups with Ozzie in net. Now we have Howie on the back 9 of his career and Jon freakin Bernier and not a lot in front of them. Hard times be ahead in 18/19 Wings fans. Ugggh.
- Wingdings

Expanding on that a bit ...

One simple estimate of goalie-independent team strength that I like to use for rough comparisons is called "win threshold." Basically, a team's win threshold attempts to answer the question "How good does our goaltending have to be in order to allow exactly as many goals as we score?"

Since about half the teams make the playoffs, a net goal differential of zero should represent about a 50-50 bubble playoff team. So if you get better goaltending than your win threshold, you're likely in, and if you get worse goaltending than your win threshold, you're likely out.

To figure out a team's win threshold, all you need to know is how many goals they scored and how many shots they allowed. Then you can figure out what save percentage your team would need to average to have a net goal differential of zero.

Make sense? Good.

Anyway, here are Detroit's numbers for 2007-08 vs 2017-18.

2008:
252 goals scored
1935 shots allowed
Win threshold: .870.

To put that in perspective, since 2005-06 there have been a combined 628 instances of a goalie making at least 20 starts in a season, and 627 of them were better than .870. In other words, Detroit would have easily made the playoffs with even with AHL-quality goaltending, and been a powerhouse with even mediocre NHL tending (which, of course, they proved by being a powerhouse with ... a 35-year-old Osgood and a 43-year-old Hasek in net.)

2018:
212 goals scored
2613 shots allowed
Win threshold: .919

To put that in perspective, .919 is not an outrageous rate for an individual goaltender but it is very very good. And remember, the whole team COMBINED would have to average this, including backups and empty net situations. In other words, Detroit would need to get elite-level goaltending just to be a bubble team.

Here's another way of looking at it that maybe hammers the point home even harder:

In order to be as good as or better than the 2018 Red Wings (-42 goal differential), the 2008 Red Wings would have only needed .848 from their team goaltending. That is so bad there's no way for me to assess or contextualize it properly. I'm not 100% sure there's a professional or even semi-professional goalie playing at any level anywhere in the world who couldn't average .848 in the NHL. It wouldn't shock me at all if a good high school goalie or beer leaguer with a bit of college / junior / pro experience could do it.

In order to be as good as the 2008 Red Wings (+73), the 2018 Red Wings would have needed .947 from their goaltending. That basically stopping 19 out of 20 all season long. No single goaltender playing a full starter's workload has ever been that good -- not even Hasek in his prime.

Here's another way of looking at it that maybe hammers the point home even harder:

In order to be as good as or better than the 2018 Red Wings (-42 goal differential), the 2008 Red Wings would have only needed .848 from their team goaltending. That is so bad there's no way for me to assess or contextualize it properly. I'm not 100% sure there's a professional or even semi-professional goalie playing at any level anywhere in the world who couldn't average .848 in the NHL. It wouldn't shock me at all if a good high school goalie or beer leaguer with a bit of college / junior / pro experience could do it.

In order to be as good as the 2008 Red Wings (+73), the 2018 Red Wings would have needed .947 from their goaltending. That basically stopping 19 out of 20 all season long. No single goaltender playing a full starter's workload has ever been that good -- not even Hasek in his prime.
- Sven22

Gotta get the goals for up to the 245-250 range

Gotta get the goals for up to the 245-250 range
- Feds91Stammer

That sure would be nice.

Remember when we had so much talent we were winning Cups with Ozzie in net. Now we have Howie on the back 9 of his career and Jon freakin Bernier and not a lot in front of them. Hard times be ahead in 18/19 Wings fans. Ugggh.
- Wingdings

I will thoroughly enjoy watching this years team more than either of the last 2 years, I reckon.

The defense is going to be a train-wreck all year, though.

I will thoroughly enjoy watching this years team more than either of the last 2 years, I reckon.

The defense is going to be a train-wreck all year, though.
- ezekial

This x1000

Last year was brutal. Only could stomach maybe 10-15 games whereas I usually watch 70+ a season.

Are there any quality D coming up in their system????? Dekeyser and Ericsson are the only roster'd LD. Yikes

Are there any quality D coming up in their system????? Dekeyser and Ericsson are the only roster'd LD. Yikes
- bikeguy99

LOL

Except for Kronwall and Daley are both LHD

And yes Hronek and Cholowski. Plus Hicketts.

Gotta get the goals for up to the 245-250 range
- Feds91Stammer

Wasn’t far off from how I feel. We are getting our better players in the line up. Our drafting over the last three to four years are sneaking on to the ice and proving themselves or being cast off.

Last year sucked, but I got a good feeling that we should be fun to watch this year

LOL

Except for Kronwall and Daley are both LHD

And yes Hronek and Cholowski. Plus Hicketts.
- Feds91Stammer

Haha capfriendly had those boys listed as RHD but they shoot left so clearly thats an option. And ya that Hronek sure had a great AHL debut and probably deserves a crack at this years roster. Cholowski and Hicketts had some pretty low outputs, so I expect they play in the minors. McIlrath a total loss at this point?

Haha capfriendly had those boys listed as RHD but they shoot left so clearly thats an option. And ya that Hronek sure had a great AHL debut and probably deserves a crack at this years roster. Cholowski and Hicketts had some pretty low outputs, so I expect they play in the minors. McIlrath a total loss at this point?
- bikeguy99

Uh. Yeah. He was acquired to be an AHL player.

Also how did Cholowski have low outputs? Dude was around a point a game in the WHL last year.

You do have google right?

Haha capfriendly had those boys listed as RHD but they shoot left so clearly thats an option.
- bikeguy99

Actually I'm pretty sure capfriendly, for whatever reason, considers "left defense" and "right defense" as separate positions (akin to left wing and right wing), so LD and RD indicate the side they usually play rather than their handedness.

If you click into either player page, you'll notice it says "right defense" but also SHOOTS: Left.

Uh. Yeah. He was acquired to be an AHL player.

Also how did Cholowski have low outputs? Dude was around a point a game in the WHL last year.

You do have google right?
- Feds91Stammer

You are right. I shouldn't say low output. What I meant was a decrease ppg from his transition with the WHL. Slower second half but not by much. Hopefully he can develop, but if he ends up bottom pairing in grand rapids, it could slow the process. Would love to see Hronek get a some time in the show with top 4 minutes. There sure is alot of promise in the younger talent up front, and would love to see a pulse from the back end as well.