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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Blackhawks Free Agency Flop
Author Message
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 3 @ 1:50 PM ET
Perhaps on July 1, or earlier, there would have been a better market for Leddy than right before training camp.
- StLBravesFan

Bowman waited so long because he didn't want to trade Leddy. Lots of insiders were reporting that he was trying to move other pieces so the Hawks could keep Oduya and Leddy, but it did not work out. Idk if I fault him for that necessarily. Return did suck.
HawksHype
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.08.2011

Jul 3 @ 1:55 PM ET
Perhaps on July 1, or earlier, there would have been a better market for Leddy than right before training camp.
- StLBravesFan


True... I will give you the point by saying Bowman didn't help himself.
Murph76
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 12.07.2011

Jul 3 @ 2:00 PM ET
Between Custance and Powers articles about Larkin and Schmaltz's new contracts, here is a table of comparable players.



They believe Larkin and Schmaltz will get similar deals because their PPG is the same and they have the same agent. Schmaltz has a slightly weaker argument since he's played and scored less as well as being on a team where he is not the 1C / star vs Larkin.

Quotes on projections for both:

Craig Custance has written a lot about Larkin’s next contract the past few months. In his latest story, Custance projected Larkin’s AAV to be $6.7 million. Matt Cane projected six years with a $6,320,945 cap hit. Larkin will likely sign for 6-8 years.

The length of the deal will factor into Schmaltz’s asking price. Overhardt will want to make sure Schmaltz is receiving a competitive salary with the rest of the league if he’s signed for 5-8 years.

- L_B_R
One league source believed Schmaltz could ask for $5.5 million-$7.5 million depending on the length. Another league source thought $36 million over six years would be fair.


If Bowman gives Schmaltz 6 Mil/per for 6 years (36Mil total) he is officially the worst GM in the league. This will be his first NHL contract, no way in hell he deserves that kind of $...but this is Bowman we're talking about.
HawksHype
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.08.2011

Jul 3 @ 2:07 PM ET
If Bowman gives Schmaltz 6 Mil/per for 6 years (36Mil total) he is officially the worst GM in the league. This will be his first NHL contract, no way in hell he deserves that kind of $...but this is Bowman we're talking about.
- Murph76


Just for fun.... Schmaltz can get a 6/6 from another team. Bowman says no, we lose Schmaltz. You're happy because we didn't pay him then?
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 3 @ 2:08 PM ET
If Bowman gives Schmaltz 6 Mil/per for 6 years (36Mil total) he is officially the worst GM in the league. This will be his first NHL contract, no way in hell he deserves that kind of $...but this is Bowman we're talking about.
- Murph76


I guess it doesn't matter what he "deserves" - or, more precisely, he "deserves" what he can get.

What happens if he gets a 70 point season and becomes an acceptable (not even star) top-6 center? Does the 6X6 become 7X7 next summer? Does it become a Panarin-type bridge and UFA after that?
Murph76
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 12.07.2011

Jul 3 @ 2:09 PM ET
Just for fun.... Schmaltz can get a 6/6 from another team. Bowman says no, we lose Schmaltz. You're happy because we didn't pay him then?
- HawksHype

For that kind of money? Hell yes! You think the kid has done anything at all to earn that kind of money? I don't, that's what Saad makes and he has at least the history to prove he can be worth 6/6 (he wasn't last year, but potentially).
kmw4631
Location: CHICAGO
Joined: 02.27.2015

Jul 3 @ 2:11 PM ET
If Bowman gives Schmaltz 6 Mil/per for 6 years (36Mil total) he is officially the worst GM in the league. This will be his first NHL contract, no way in hell he deserves that kind of $...but this is Bowman we're talking about.
- Murph76


2 things good young players do not want bridge deals anymore. He was tied for 2nd on the team in points and is getting better not worse. I would like to see something more in the 5.5 range but the reality is at least is paying good money to a guy that should improve for a few years and then not decline during the contract.
Murph76
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 12.07.2011

Jul 3 @ 2:11 PM ET
I guess it doesn't matter what he "deserves" - or, more precisely, he "deserves" what he can get.

What happens if he gets a 70 point season and becomes an acceptable (not even star) top-6 center? Does the 6X6 become 7X7 next summer? Does it become a Panarin-type bridge and UFA after that?

- StLBravesFan


To be a top six center, he has to win some faceoffs first. Let's not get ahead of ourselves, the kid's no Panarin.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jul 3 @ 2:12 PM ET
https://blackhawkup.com/2018/07/02/chicago-blackhawks-defense-constructing-top-7-current-roster/

Yesterday, Blackhawkup had an article about who they think will be the starting blueline for the Hawks in 2018-19. Don't agree with some parts of their analysis (a lot of their articles make you scratch your head as to the credentials to be hired to write for them), but here is what they project so take it FWIW:

Keith - Jokiharju
Gustafsson - Seabrook
Hillman - Manning
Forsling

Before ending the article with their projected blueline, they mention Murphy as a given to be in the lineup assuming he's not traded yet he doesn't make the starting blueline projection.

- AEL_Fox


I would be surprised if this is the starting blue line.

IMO Manning will probably play on the left side and unlikely the Hillman would bump him out of the gate. I don't think they paid Rutta 2.3 million to not play and Jokiharju would have to be pretty darn special to enter the league playing on the top pair. Not impossible, but how man dmen come in and just play top pair and face the other teams tough competition? I could see him pairing with Keith if they have a shutdown pair like they used to with Hjalmarsson and Oduya, so that would take pressure off. A guy like Raddysh might be more NHL ready too and could start pushing for a chance to play on the Right-hand side.

I think it could be really hard to know, since it seems like the Hawks are probably going to move someone. Assuming they trade Murphy and demote/move Oesterle, I think the front runners for 1RD are gonna be

1) A new RD they pickup in trade (If they do)
2) Rutta
3) Seabrook

Again, hard to say until the dust settles, moves are made the guys get to camp, but I really don't see Jokiharju (who just turned 19) just entering the NHL as a top pair guy day 1.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 3 @ 2:12 PM ET
Just for fun.... Schmaltz can get a 6/6 from another team. Bowman says no, we lose Schmaltz. You're happy because we didn't pay him then?
- HawksHype

He would be an RFA, no? Requirement an offer sheet - which don't come to often in this league.

If it would, 6X6 would get the Hawks back a 1st, 2nd and 3rd next summer from a team that would still have their own picks to give up.
z1990z
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NW USA
Joined: 02.09.2012

Jul 3 @ 2:13 PM ET
I would be surprised if this is the starting blue line.

IMO Manning will probably play on the left side and unlikely the Hillman would bump him out of the gate. I don't think they paid Rutta 2.3 million to not play and Jokiharju would have to be pretty darn special to enter the league playing on the top pair. Not impossible, but how man dmen come in and just play top pair and face the other teams tough competition? I could see him pairing with Keith if they have a shutdown pair like they used to with Hjalmarsson and Oduya, so that would take pressure off. A guy like Raddysh might be more NHL ready too and could start pushing for a chance to play on the Right-hand side.

I think it could be really hard to know, since it seems like the Hawks are probably going to move someone. Assuming they trade Murphy and demote/move Oesterle, I think the front runners for 1RD are gonna be

1) A new RD they pickup in trade (If they do)
2) Rutta
3) Seabrook

Again, hard to say until the dust settles, moves are made the guys get to camp, but I really don't see Jokiharju (who just turned 19) just entering the NHL as a top pair guy day 1.

- breadbag


Raddysh deserves a look. Very solid season on Rockford. He strikes me as a TVR mold D. Solid if nothing else.
Murph76
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 12.07.2011

Jul 3 @ 2:14 PM ET
2 things good young players do not want bridge deals anymore. He was tied for 2nd on the team in points and is getting better not worse. I would like to see something more in the 5.5 range but the reality is at least is paying good money to a guy that should improve for a few years and then not decline during the contract.
- kmw4631

No more friggin' 5+ year deals for players who are still questionable, are we asking for Seabrook 2.0 here? He has one decent season in the NHL under his belt, decent not amazing, ONE!
kmw4631
Location: CHICAGO
Joined: 02.27.2015

Jul 3 @ 2:14 PM ET
For that kind of money? Hell yes! You think the kid has done anything at all to earn that kind of money? I don't, that's what Saad makes and he has at least the history to prove he can be worth 6/6 (he wasn't last year, but potentially).
- Murph76


If he goes for 70 this year which is very possible he is going to get 7 mil+ per season.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 3 @ 2:15 PM ET
To be a top six center, he has to win some faceoffs first. Let's not get ahead of ourselves, the kid's no Panarin.
- Murph76


I did say "what if...."

It's a gamble either way - my guess is that they do 6X6 him - may a little less - but that seems to be market for young players with still more potential than actuality.
TommyHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.23.2013

Jul 3 @ 2:15 PM ET
For that kind of money? Hell yes! You think the kid has done anything at all to earn that kind of money? I don't, that's what Saad makes and he has at least the history to prove he can be worth 6/6 (he wasn't last year, but potentially).
- Murph76

What do you need to see from Schmaltz? He took a huge step up from year one to year two when rookies typically have a sophomore slump. He’s absolutely a candidate for 60+ points this season at age 22 and there’s even more room for growth.

Locking him in at 6x6 is what Bowman SHOULD be doing. If Schmaltz explodes this season (70 points) he’s going to want even more. You lock in your young core early. That’s how contracts don’t become albatrosses.
Murph76
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 12.07.2011

Jul 3 @ 2:15 PM ET
If he goes for 70 this year which is very possible he is going to get 7 mil+ per season.
- kmw4631

Good, let him walk. We can get better for that kind of scratch!
kmw4631
Location: CHICAGO
Joined: 02.27.2015

Jul 3 @ 2:16 PM ET
No more friggin' 5+ year deals for players who are still questionable, are we asking for Seabrook 2.0 here? He has one decent season in the NHL under his belt, decent not amazing, ONE!
- Murph76


Seab was not a questionable player he was a declining player that got a Mil to much and 3 years too long. Very different.
Murph76
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 12.07.2011

Jul 3 @ 2:18 PM ET
What do you need to see from Schmaltz? He took a huge step up from year one to year two when rookies typically have a sophomore slump. He’s absolutely a candidate for 60+ points this season at age 22 and there’s even more room for growth.

Locking him in at 6x6 is what Bowman SHOULD be doing. If Schmaltz explodes this season (70 points) he’s going to want even more. You lock in your young core early. That’s how contracts don’t become albatrosses.

- TommyHawk


He doesn't suck, don't get me wrong. But that's too much too soon, maybe 4 mil/per for the next 3 years I could live with.
HawksHype
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.08.2011

Jul 3 @ 2:18 PM ET
He would be an RFA, no? Requirement an offer sheet - which don't come to often in this league.

If it would, 6X6 would get the Hawks back a 1st, 2nd and 3rd next summer from a team that would still have their own picks to give up.

- StLBravesFan


I guess my point is remove the RFA tag then. People love to bash because of contracts players get, but don't look at what else is out there. I'm sure Bowman knows more about contracts than we do. I know what this board thinks, but I don't think Bowman is throwing around an extra $1.5M just because.
kmw4631
Location: CHICAGO
Joined: 02.27.2015

Jul 3 @ 2:20 PM ET
Good, let him walk. We can get better for that kind of scratch!
- Murph76


SAAD scored 52 pts and got 6 X 6. (sal cap at 73mi not 79.5) BTW. the year prior he had 47 pts. Nick has 1 year left but can sign now if he wants.
HawksHype
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.08.2011

Jul 3 @ 2:20 PM ET
Good, let him walk. We can get better for that kind of scratch!
- Murph76


To me, this proves how much of a no win situation Bowman is in with some of this fanbase.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jul 3 @ 2:21 PM ET
To be a top six center, he has to win some faceoffs first. Let's not get ahead of ourselves, the kid's no Panarin.
- Murph76


Year over year his FO% went up 10% and he could improve more. It won't be a big issue if he moves into the 45% + range in the near future, not when you consider the pucks he retrieves with his speed and takeaways. He is still young and getting stronger, so that might come, but I don't think you can discount his contributions on line 2. He was a good PK guy last season and sparked a lot of offense at 5v5. He won't have a Panarin one timer, but there are already contributions he makes that Panarin did not.
Murph76
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 12.07.2011

Jul 3 @ 2:24 PM ET
To me, this proves how much of a no win situation Bowman is in with some of this fanbase.
- HawksHype

Dude, go blow the Bowman trumpet some place else. I think you're in the VAST minority on this board.
Murph76
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 12.07.2011

Jul 3 @ 2:25 PM ET
SAAD scored 52 pts and got 6 X 6. (sal cap at 73mi not 79.5) BTW. the year prior he had 47 pts. Nick has 1 year left but can sign now if he wants.
- kmw4631

If he has a better season this year I guess I'm cool with it, but WAIT and see how he does...no need to jump the gun!
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jul 3 @ 2:26 PM ET
Raddysh deserves a look. Very solid season on Rockford. He strikes me as a TVR mold D. Solid if nothing else.
- z1990z


I think the one thing everyone can agree on, the Hawks blueline is clear as mud at the moment. There are a lot of young guys that "could be" in the mix and a handful of vets that may or may not perform up to par and a few unknowns about who will be here. It was said around here recently, it used to be much more clear who was going t to be the top 4 or 5 Dmen for the Hawks, but that is not the case lately. I do like that they have options, but I'm glad I don't have to choose who will play.
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