Jason Lewis: Is the LA Kings Key to Success Their Forward Depth?

#FreeSlava

Kopi and Toffoli are the only ones I could ink for production. Every one else are in the category "well, maybe" I was not all that impressed with Carter's season last year, but that's just me and I am kind of a d!ck

Carter was injured and still put up the second most points on the team.

I don't know about "success," but the depth forwards are going to be key to whether the team is just OK up front or in real trouble, IMO. Even if they're OK, though, I imagine that the stars are still going to have to carry the offense more than usual. In fact, a lot more than usual has to all come together this time around, IMO, which is why I'm skeptical, but would welcome being proven wrong.

BTW, a friendly note: I believe that you meant "complement(ary)."

Kopi and Toffoli are the only ones I could ink for production. Every one else are in the category "well, maybe" I was not all that impressed with Carter's season last year, but that's just me and I am kind of a d!ck
- MikeOxbyg

I actually agree with you. (not talking about your last line)
Didn't understand picking up Latta....they have Nolan to play that role?
Carter is getting old. As Maverick would say, "They have the need for speed ".

given the need for scoring punch on the bottom lines, it would make sense to have guys like mersch and dowd get extended looks for simply that reason. we already know what upside brown, lewis, king, andreoff, nolan and clifford bring. and i hope there's going to be a 10 game tryout for kempe at some point this season, just to see what the future could hold.

I don't know about "success," but the depth forwards are going to be key to whether the team is just OK up front or in real trouble, IMO. Even if they're OK, though, I imagine that the stars are still going to have to carry the offense more than usual. In fact, a lot more than usual has to all come together this time around, IMO, which is why I'm skeptical, but would welcome being proven wrong.

BTW, a friendly note: I believe that you meant "complement(ary)."
- Osprey

Good catch. Thanks!

...Point being is there was variability in the top 9 as a whole. The divide between top line producers and bottom line producers was not really that clear...

If that's the goal, which I agree it is...

When discussing the Forward lines, you really must consider the PK tandems. Sutter is on record as starting with a tandem, or a "two" to create lines, like Carter and Toffoli, or Kopi and Brown, or Stoll and Lewis in the past.

The ideal is to have the PK pairs play on the same lines, as during the Cup runs, especially 2012.

Sutter plans to roll 4 lines and builds those lines accordingly. He's not a Quenneville where 4th liners get scraps only, Sutter's 4th line predominantly is played in rotation like the rest of the lines.

Plus, Sutter has said he builds lines by starting with a "two" and adding the third forward to suit. Best case scenario is when those "twos" are the same as the PK tandems, again as in 2012. It's not something I made up, it's what Sutter does and has done.

So for me, it's Brown and Kopi, Carter and Toffoli as two main PK pairs. The match for Lewis is still undecided, although it evolved to Pearson much of the time because Shore didn't quite get "there" last year. Progress was made, and this year is make or break for Shore in my opinion. He has done every part of a 3C game really well at times, but not usually all in the same game. This year the parts need to become whole.
So to start I see this:
11 23
77 73
22

Then, since I like goals, and the Pearson Kopi Brown line has excellent stats, my third Forward for 11 and 23 is 70.

It seems clear that the third line Center should PK with Lewis. Shore was the candidate, and despite an uneven year I feel he showed progress in filling a very difficult role. So I pencil in Shore as a PK tandem with Lewis. Andreoff, or other, will be the 4th Center, maybe even swapping with Shore as to who gets the least minutes game to game.
70 11 23
77 73
21 22
15

Players left are Gaborik, King, Clifford, Purcell, Nolan and a Mersch or other.

The natural would be for Gaborik to play with Carter, but I want to roll 4 lines and I want offensive punch from all of them. Purcell is not strong enough defensively to play with Shore and Lewis, for me. He's okay at both sides, so that's a good thing.
If you get over the 4th line nomenclature and accept that balance is good (Pittsburgh with Kessel on a third line) you start looking openly for potential alignment of style and skills. Gaborik needs a partner, and his style and skills most closely match Andreoff.

Both Andreoff and Gaborik are fast, they even look the same as their strides are similar, they both can pass the puck, and Andreoff is showing signs of scoring and finishing touch. It may seem crazy but if you do plug in Andreoff and Gaborik just to see what is left, it suddenly works very well.
70 11 23
77 73
21 22
12 15 54

Players remaining are 74 and 13. King played a lot of time with 77 and 73 last year, and he can fill in on PK if needed. So you could conceivably rest Toffoli a PK without scrambling you lines by taking guys from different lines and playing them at the same time on a PK. If guys skate on different lines but PK together, your options are limited coming out of the PK because you could have two guys from two lines both too tired to take their shift. So you either skip one or even both of those lines to let them rest, or make up a new line by "frankensteining" from among rested players across
multiple lines. Not advisable. It's best to roll players every 4th shift, not sometimes the 4th, sometimes the 2nd or 3rd shift thru a game.
To say 13 and 74 are interchangeable is over-simplistic, but they can both move up and down lines. I prefer 74 with 77 and 73, out of existing familiarity. With the presence of Nolan, or Mersch/Dowd/other making it out of camp, we have flexibility with this starting alignment.
70 11 23
74/13/54 77 73
13/74 21 22
12 15 54/71

Voila. Balance. No discernible 4th line, instead it's two 3rd lines really. Centers go Left,Right,Right,Left. Pk pairs play on the same lines. Scoring tandems are kept intact except Gaborik and Kooi are split, but Pearson had better numbers than Gabo with 11 and 23. Gaborik and Andreoff can skate the first shift after a PK, with no line order interruption, and no adjustments to rest guys by making one-off lines.

If that's the goal, which I agree it is...

When discussing the Forward lines, you really must consider the PK tandems. Sutter is on record as starting with a tandem, or a "two" to create lines, like Carter and Toffoli, or Kopi and Brown, or Stoll and Lewis in the past.

The ideal is to have the PK pairs play on the same lines, as during the Cup runs, especially 2012.

Sutter plans to roll 4 lines and builds those lines accordingly. He's not a Quenneville where 4th liners get scraps only, Sutter's 4th line predominantly is played in rotation like the rest of the lines.

Plus, Sutter has said he builds lines by starting with a "two" and adding the third forward to suit. Best case scenario is when those "twos" are the same as the PK tandems, again as in 2012. It's not something I made up, it's what Sutter does and has done.

So for me, it's Brown and Kopi, Carter and Toffoli as two main PK pairs. The match for Lewis is still undecided, although it evolved to Pearson much of the time because Shore didn't quite get "there" last year. Progress was made, and this year is make or break for Shore in my opinion. He has done every part of a 3C game really well at times, but not usually all in the same game. This year the parts need to become whole.
So to start I see this:
11 23
77 73
22

Then, since I like goals, and the Pearson Kopi Brown line has excellent stats, my third Forward for 11 and 23 is 70.

It seems clear that the third line Center should PK with Lewis. Shore was the candidate, and despite an uneven year I feel he showed progress in filling a very difficult role. So I pencil in Shore as a PK tandem with Lewis. Andreoff, or other, will be the 4th Center, maybe even swapping with Shore as to who gets the least minutes game to game.
70 11 23
77 73
21 22
15

Players left are Gaborik, King, Clifford, Purcell, Nolan and a Mersch or other.

The natural would be for Gaborik to play with Carter, but I want to roll 4 lines and I want offensive punch from all of them. Purcell is not strong enough defensively to play with Shore and Lewis, for me. He's okay at both sides, so that's a good thing.
If you get over the 4th line nomenclature and accept that balance is good (Pittsburgh with Kessel on a third line) you start looking openly for potential alignment of style and skills. Gaborik needs a partner, and his style and skills most closely match Andreoff.

Both Andreoff and Gaborik are fast, they even look the same as their strides are similar, they both can pass the puck, and Andreoff is showing signs of scoring and finishing touch. It may seem crazy but if you do plug in Andreoff and Gaborik just to see what is left, it suddenly works very well.
70 11 23
77 73
21 22
12 15 54

Players remaining are 74 and 13. King played a lot of time with 77 and 73 last year, and he can fill in on PK if needed. So you could conceivably rest Toffoli a PK without scrambling you lines by taking guys from different lines and playing them at the same time on a PK. If guys skate on different lines but PK together, your options are limited coming out of the PK because you could have two guys from two lines both too tired to take their shift. So you either skip one or even both of those lines to let them rest, or make up a new line by "frankensteining" from among rested players across
multiple lines. Not advisable. It's best to roll players every 4th shift, not sometimes the 4th, sometimes the 2nd or 3rd shift thru a game.
To say 13 and 74 are interchangeable is over-simplistic, but they can both move up and down lines. I prefer 74 with 77 and 73, out of existing familiarity. With the presence of Nolan, or Mersch/Dowd/other making it out of camp, we have flexibility with this starting alignment.
70 11 23
74/13/54 77 73
13/74 21 22
12 15 54/71

Voila. Balance. No discernible 4th line, instead it's two 3rd lines really. Centers go Left,Right,Right,Left. Pk pairs play on the same lines. Scoring tandems are kept intact except Gaborik and Kooi are split, but Pearson had better numbers than Gabo with 11 and 23. Gaborik and Andreoff can skate the first shift after a PK, with no line order interruption, and no adjustments to rest guys by making one-off lines.
- PlayerX

No chance Brown starts out on the top line especially over Gaborik. Brown is a 3rd line winger at best on this team. And with Pearsons struggles last year, I don't see him on the top line either. I think Sutter tries to get That 70's line back together and working like it did in 2014 and if it doesn't, then I see them moving him back down to the third.

"No chance Brown starts out on the top line especially over Gaborik. Brown is a 3rd line winger at best on this team."

...Going forward: Gaborik is 34 years old and commands a $4.875-million cap hit through 2021, so he’s among the players who will be called upon to raise his production after a season in which there wasn’t much positivity. The Kings will afford him opportunity to do so; early correspondence has him penciled as the left wing opposite Dustin Brown on Anze Kopitar’s line, though there will be injuries and adjustments, and lines are never static... From Jon Rosen on the Gaborik evaluation,

http://lakingsinsider.com...nks-goalies-gaborik-eval/

The most resistance will be putting Andreoff with Gaborik, but I am hoping they end up together after a PK and it clicks, so Sutter tries it for a game to see it and it goes well.

I think that you can count on Kopitar-Gaborik and Carter-Toffoli being two tandems that'll be maintained up through opening night almost regardless of what happens during the preseason. The competition during training camp will be for who gets to be the 3rd guys on those two lines. We can pencil guys in, but that's kind of pointless, IMO, since it'll depend mostly on preseason performance.

For the first few preseason games, Kopitar-Gaborik and Carter-Toffoli will play with 3rd wheels that have almost no shot at staying there, most likely destined for the bottom lines or for Ontario. It'll be purely about giving them the best chance to succeed. The players who have the most likelihood of ultimately ending up in those 3rd spots on the top two lines--Brown, Purcell, Pearson, King, etc.--will get their own lines in preseason games and be the "veterans" that give other players chances to succeed. Whichever two perform the best in the first half of camp will probably be first in line to be tried on the top two lines in the second half, as the roster is trimmed.

In that sense, it may not make much sense to say that Brown doesn't belong on the top line, since that'll be rather moot if he performs better or no worse than the other candidates. In principle and if you have better options, yes, you wouldn't want him there, but the depth on the team is such that someone who probably would ideally be on the 3rd line is going to end up on the 1st line whether we're happy about it or not.

I think that you can count on Kopitar-Gaborik and Carter-Toffoli being two tandems that'll be maintained up through opening night almost regardless of what happens during the preseason. The competition during training camp will be for who gets to be the 3rd guys on those two lines. We can pencil guys in, but that's kind of pointless, IMO, since it'll depend mostly on preseason performance.

For the first few preseason games, Kopitar-Gaborik and Carter-Toffoli will play with 3rd wheels that have almost no shot at staying there, most likely destined for the bottom lines or for Ontario. It'll be purely about giving them the best chance to succeed. The players who have the most likelihood of ultimately ending up in those 3rd spots on the top two lines--Brown, Purcell, Pearson, King, etc.--will get their own lines in preseason games and be the "veterans" that give other players chances to succeed. Whichever two perform the best in the first half of camp will probably be first in line to be tried on the top two lines in the second half, as the roster is trimmed.

In that sense, it may not make much sense to say that Brown doesn't belong on the top line, since that'll be rather moot if he performs better or no worse than the other candidates. In principle and if you have better options, yes, you wouldn't want him there, but the depth on the team is such that someone who probably would ideally be on the 3rd line is going to end up on the 1st line whether we're happy about it or not.
- Osprey

Interesting about training camp, I never looked at it like that, thanks for the perspective.

I agree, as to your expectations mostly, in that you are quoting conventional wisdom, and Sutter was once even on record saying that he did not intend to break up Kopi and Gabo, but of course he eventually did.
I'm just hoping that circumstances lead to Gaborik and Andreoff together, after which it is seen as an option and perhaps a desirable option. Again, not only does that free up other lines and scorers while spreading the Offense around, but I also think it conforms to the Defensive commitment in the Kings game planning.