Todd Cordell: Zajac, Jagr Among NHL's Elite Duos

I always felt good when they were on the ice. Glad they found chemistry so early.

They obviously had good chemistry it was just most of the time Zajac looking like the new version of Elias staring into the rafters after he would miss and open net.

I think the Devils amazing advanced stats in 2013-14 yet still missing the playoffs tell you all you need to know about how important these advanced stats truly are.

I think the Devils amazing advanced stats in 2013-14 yet still missing the playoffs tell you all you need to know about how important these advanced stats truly are.
- jimbro83

It just shows the Devils poor goaltending (Brodeur) and how they cannot score from their chances, combined with their poor shootout record is the only reason they didn't make the playoffs.

So with a little more luck and, hopefully, better finishing on their chances, the Devils should be in the playoffs.

They obviously had good chemistry it was just most of the time Zajac looking like the new version of Elias staring into the rafters after he would miss and open net.
- Bowkes

Yep, the hope is that with Cammalleri as the third guy on that line instead of Zubrus significantly more of that possession dominance and chance generation will lead to goals.

I think the Devils amazing advanced stats in 2013-14 yet still missing the playoffs tell you all you need to know about how important these advanced stats truly are.
- jimbro83

Yeah, ignore 0-13 in shootouts and missing by five points and Brodeur's .901SV%. Just blame the advanced stats because one of, like, the top 13 possession teams missed the playoffs.

What if I told you I had a NYR/LA final predicted before the playoffs in part because of the advanced stats?

I think the Devils amazing advanced stats in 2013-14 yet still missing the playoffs tell you all you need to know about how important these advanced stats truly are.
- jimbro83

I think there's always going to be anomalies, and ultimately the best teams are the ones that can boast a great possession game AND great skill/talent (such as LA and Chicago).

I also definitely believe the possession game matters more in the playoffs. Team skill seems to matter more in the regular season. You have a team like Colorado last year, who rode through the regular season on their youth and skill only to be ousted in round 1. The Pens have been a bit of an example of this for awhile now. LA last year had a sort of "meh" regular season (considering who's on that team) only to thrive in the playoffs. LA had a VERY "meh" regular season in 2011-12 only to dominate the playoffs. The one year the Devils have made the playoffs under PDB they went to the finals. Etc.

I think the Devils amazing advanced stats in 2013-14 yet still missing the playoffs tell you all you need to know about how important these advanced stats truly are.
- jimbro83

They're part of the picture, not the whole picture.

As you point out, say what you want about corsi, 5on5, etc. NJ still missed the playoffs.

Advanced stats are not an indicator of team performance in a sense of who will/won't make the playoffs, team record is.

But advanced stats are being used as insight into player roles, strengths, weaknesses, and areas of strength/weakness as a team.

I don't think anyone would suggest stats can predict team performance. It's already a stretch to use them for forecasting player stats for a season without putting variables in for games played, avg games played per seasin, etc, which the advanced statistics community is doing a good job of adjusting and adding co-efficients for variables for instance, and trying to integrate real life variables into hockey analytics like TOI relevant to level of competition faced on average, statistically showing TOI is not equal for all.

But at this point advanced stats are anecdotal to real team performance.

You didn't need advanced stats to tell you NJ couldn't score last year or that Schneider was a better goalie than Marty. Unfortunately some people fixate on the statistic that fits their agenda.

For instance, just look at all the Marty apologists that focused solely on Wins. The other goalie performance statistics where irrelevant because they didn't paint Marty in a perfect light or as the better goalie. They completely discredited or ignored Cory's stellar GAA & SV% when compared to Marty. They even ignored his GPG in support.

Yeah, ignore 0-13 in shootouts and missing by five points and Brodeur's .901SV%. Just blame the advanced stats because one of, like, the top 13 possession teams missed the playoffs.

What if I told you I had a NYR/LA final predicted before the playoffs in part because of the advanced stats?
- Todd.Cordell

You would need to provide evidence with reasoning in addition to pure statistical analysis. I'd hope no one would take your word for it.

But, I predicted LA vs NJ in 2012, despite all attempts to try to not be a homer (of course I picked NJ to win) and I seldom pick NJ to win (mainly because that team had two top 10 scorers). I used no analysis other than the hated 'eye-test'.

Not saying my method is right & yours wrong, but that merely one year of a successful prediction is not a large sample size to suggest your method is accurate you'd need to successfully predict more often than not at a statistically significant rate over a period of time to give credence to your methodology.

Yeah, ignore 0-13 in shootouts and missing by five points and Brodeur's .901SV%. Just blame the advanced stats because one of, like, the top 13 possession teams missed the playoffs.

What if I told you I had a NYR/LA final predicted before the playoffs in part because of the advanced stats?
- Todd.Cordell

I think he meant that the stats themselves are meaningless when the other stats aren't great. You can't win on advanced stats alone.

Yeah, ignore 0-13 in shootouts and missing by five points and Brodeur's .901SV%. Just blame the advanced stats because one of, like, the top 13 possession teams missed the playoffs.

What if I told you I had a NYR/LA final predicted before the playoffs in part because of the advanced stats?
- Todd.Cordell

Todd, I realize you are the L Ron Hubbard of Corsi, but, the fact is that advanced stats don't need to be written about every single day.

I think he meant that the stats themselves are meaningless when the other stats aren't great. You can't win on advanced stats alone.
- leafer89

Absolutely, but I think most Devils' fans' point as to why NJ should be better next year is they do have phenomenal possession stats, they improved their goaltending with Marty leaving, they added some scoring with Camm, and all probability states they'll have an at least slightly better shootout record.

On the other hand, everything could go wrong and they could finish last.

#ConnorMcDevils

Yeah, ignore 0-13 in shootouts and missing by five points and Brodeur's .901SV%. Just blame the advanced stats because one of, like, the top 13 possession teams missed the playoffs.

What if I told you I had a NYR/LA final predicted before the playoffs in part because of the advanced stats?
- Todd.Cordell

I had that series picked on a gut feeling

#me

I had that series picked on a guy feeling

#me
- shvingter88

I'd like to see some advanced stats before the Rangers-Kings final that positively predicted there would be 3 overtime games, two of them in double overtime that showed the Kings would win all three.

I'd like to see some advanced stats before the Rangers-Kings final that positively predicted there would be 3 overtime games, two of them in double overtime that showed the Kings would win all three.
- jimbro83

No but I bet you could find some that predicted the Kings would win the series in less than 6 games.

I'd like to see some advanced stats before the Rangers-Kings final that positively predicted there would be 3 overtime games, two of them in double overtime that showed the Kings would win all three.
- jimbro83

I bet you would

No but I bet you could find some that predicted the Kings would win the series in less than 6 games.
- MannySilvers

how many of them would have analyzed Corsi, then because of advanced stats predicted 3 overtime wins for the Kings and also have predicted using those stats that the Rangers would hit at least one post in the overtimes of all three losses.

I'd like to see some advanced stats before the Rangers-Kings final that positively predicted there would be 3 overtime games, two of them in double overtime that showed the Kings would win all three.
- jimbro83

Also you're completely missing the point, no one's saying advanced stats literally tell the future, it's like anything else it's a tool. It's data that can be used to loosely predict things and used to analyze trends. Hockey will always be a chaotic game with lots left to chance, luck, momentum, whatever you want to call it. There will be occasions where a worse team beats a better team. But to say that all advanced stats are BS and tell you nothing is ignorant.

how many of them would have analyzed Corsi, then because of advanced stats predicted 3 overtime wins for the Kings and also have predicted using those stats that the Rangers would hit at least one post in the overtimes of all three losses.
- jimbro83

I'd say 0 of them predicted that because that's not how it works at all.

You're going to get very little sympathy from Devils' fans about losing in OT to the Kings in the SCF.

Also do you recall Game 4 where the puck literally was stopped from going in the net by a pile of snow twice? The Kings easily could have won that game and swept.

It goes both ways.

Also you're completely missing the point, no one's saying advanced stats literally tell the future, it's like anything else it's a tool. It's data that can be used to loosely predict things and used to analyze trends. Hockey will always be a chaotic game with lots left to chance, luck, momentum, whatever you want to call it. There will be occasions where a worse team beats a better team. But to say that all advanced stats are BS and tell you nothing is ignorant.
- MannySilvers

do you believe Todd Cordell thinks of them this way?

do you believe Todd Cordell thinks of them this way?
- jimbro83

Yes.

I'd say 0 of them predicted that because that's not how it works at all.

You're going to get very little sympathy from Devils' fans about losing in OT to the Kings in the SCF.

Also do you recall Game 4 where the puck literally was stopped from going in the net by a pile of snow twice? The Kings easily could have won that game and swept.

It goes both ways.
- MannySilvers

who is looking for sympathy? we are talking about advanced stats. I didn't bring up the Kings-Rangers final, Todd did

Yes.
- MannySilvers

so advanced stats are just some loosely based ideas that Todd has written about every single day since the season ended.

how many of them would have analyzed Corsi, then because of advanced stats predicted 3 overtime wins for the Kings and also have predicted using those stats that the Rangers would hit at least one post in the overtimes of all three losses.
- jimbro83

I thought we weren't allowed to talk about the Rangers in here? Or is it we are only allowed to if its praising them in a positive light?