Justin Lowe: 40 Big Ones
I'll admit when I'm wrong. In a blog from August 2018, I predicted the Blackhawks goals by forwards.

Obviously, this was just for fun and fully knew it would bite me in the butt. I had Alex DeBrincat at 25 goals, which was a slight decrease from his 28 in his rookie season. In my brain, the rationale was that the Hawks were short on offensive firepower and with "The Cat" being one of the go-to weapons up front, opponents would hone in on him and take away a lot of space. Also, after a 28 goal rookie campaign, he was now a known commodity and teams wouldn't be overlooking his 5'7 frame.

First

2nd

Entwistle was voted best defensive forward in the OHL West by the OHL coaches.

If AA goes away this summer, does Entwistle have an outside chance to take over at 3C?

Justin Lowe: 40 Big Ones

I'll admit when I'm wrong. In a blog from August 2018, I predicted the Blackhawks goals by forwards.

Obviously, this was just for fun and fully knew it would bite me in the butt. I had Alex DeBrincat at 25 goals, which was a slight decrease from his 28 in his rookie season. In my brain, the rationale was that the Hawks were short on offensive firepower and with "The Cat" being one of the go-to weapons up front, opponents would hone in on him and take away a lot of space. Also, after a 28 goal rookie campaign, he was now a known commodity and teams wouldn't be overlooking his 5'7 frame.
- Justin Lowe

All hail, Adb!

Thanks for the continued prospect updates.

On the topic of DeBrincat, what will his next contract look like in terms of term and dollars?

Do the Hawks go just 5 years like the Leafs did with Matthews? Or so they look to lock him up for 7 or 8? I’d go longer than 5 with DeBrincat if possible.

For money I think DeBrincat will get $8 million. The Hawks don’t have to sign DeBrincat this season, but there are two guys who are RFAs this summer that will be used as markers for him - Boeser and Connor. In Vancouver the talk is of Boeser getting at least $7 million. Connor will get more than Boeser and DeBrincat should get more than Connor.

DeBrincat will be expensive, but worth it.

Didn't realize he is a center? and he has size too ! Hope he can someday help our PK?

Entwistle was voted best defensive forward in the OHL West by the OHL coaches.

If AA goes away this summer, does Entwistle have an outside chance to take over at 3C?
- scottak

He was playing RW last night.

He was playing RW last night.
- DarthKane

Yes, you’re right, my mistake. Hockey dB lists him as a RW too. I could have sworn I saw him playing center for CAN at world juniors.

On the topic of DeBrincat, what will his next contract look like in terms of term and dollars?

Do the Hawks go just 5 years like the Leafs did with Matthews? Or so they look to lock him up for 7 or 8? I’d go longer than 5 with DeBrincat if possible.

For money I think DeBrincat will get $8 million. The Hawks don’t have to sign DeBrincat this season, but there are two guys who are RFAs this summer that will be used as markers for him - Boeser and Connor. In Vancouver the talk is of Boeser getting at least $7 million. Connor will get more than Boeser and DeBrincat should get more than Connor.

DeBrincat will be expensive, but worth it.
- DarthKane

Does Strome fall in the $5-6 mil range?

I see Adb making $7-8 mil, but I don't want that type of money on bridge term of years. I want them for the full term.

He was playing RW last night.
- DarthKane

OK, now I’m not sure. The Guelph Storm website has him listed as a center.

Hey, OHL fans, is Entwistle a center or wing?

Didn't realize he is a center? and he has size too ! Hope he can someday help our PK?
- CTblackhawkfan

Speaking of our PK...why is it so bad? We have some pretty good PKers in Toews, Saad, Kruger, AA, Keith, Seabs, Kampf, Murphy... is it the scheme? The mix of players? I don't get it. If it is the scheme, at what point do the players take control? After being ridiculously bad all year, why don't Toews and Keith get together and fix it, then go to JC and tell him they want to do something different. You can't tell me that if those two go to Colliton, he won't listen.

Speaking of our PK...why is it so bad? We have some pretty good PKers in Toews, Saad, Kruger, AA, Keith, Seabs, Kampf, Murphy... is it the scheme? The mix of players? I don't get it. If it is the scheme, at what point do the players take control? After being ridiculously bad all year, why don't Toews and Keith get together and fix it, then go to JC and tell him they want to do something different. You can't tell me that if those two go to Colliton, he won't listen.
- tvetter

Here are my guesses: the names you listed are the common culprits. Remove one and that weakens the unit, if it's a center, then we aren't winning faceoffs. Then there are the frequent 5 on 3's we've been on. Also, they take penalties at in opportune times, and last night, taking frequent penalties. With that constant workload, that tires out the pkers a lot quicker, and Crow has to be awesome.

OK, now I’m not sure. The Guelph Storm website has him listed as a center.

Hey, OHL fans, is Entwistle a center or wing?
- scottak

For Guelph he has mainly played wing. He did play C for Canada in the WJC and from what I recall did fine at the dot and was defensively responsible.

For sure can play on the PK and seems like he will do whatever the team and coaches need him to do.

On the topic of DeBrincat, what will his next contract look like in terms of term and dollars?

Do the Hawks go just 5 years like the Leafs did with Matthews? Or so they look to lock him up for 7 or 8? I’d go longer than 5 with DeBrincat if possible.

For money I think DeBrincat will get $8 million. The Hawks don’t have to sign DeBrincat this season, but there are two guys who are RFAs this summer that will be used as markers for him - Boeser and Connor. In Vancouver the talk is of Boeser getting at least $7 million. Connor will get more than Boeser and DeBrincat should get more than Connor.

DeBrincat will be expensive, but worth it.
- DarthKane

I'm fully on the side of shorter contracts (for anyone). 5 years max, especially if there is any inclusion of a NTC/NMC. I get that he is an amazing goal-scoring talent (and I'm not blind to the fact that those are not easy to find), but don't put yourself back in the same predicament after finally getting out of it. If he keeps up the performance, yes you have to pay out more when you try to re-up him, but you also protect yourself against being stuck with him for an extra three years if something goes wrong.

If he follows up next year like this year, my guess is he gets 7-7.5 per (AAV).

Two vanity points last night for another move down the draft ladder....

As an early ADB doubter, I am happy to eat crow and celebrate his accomplishments. But so will he come contract time.

$7-8MM not at all unreasonable at this point for him, but why is everyone so quick to discount Strome's deal in the $5-6MM range?

Wishful thinking.

One could easily argue that ADB's ascension went hand in hand with the chemistry he has with Strome. I also think we have yet to see the best of either player. That said, I could see a "buddy deal" happen where they both get the same money. Let's be conservative and suggest they each get $7MM.

They also will get NMCs to protect them from the expansion draft. The expansion draft - this is also another consideration with respect to building the roster back. They need to protect their up and comers from selection as well.

So, ADB/Strome will be at least a $14MM cap hit. Do the math assuming something like that goes down, and give the next two years 3% cap growth.

Aint gonna be ANY free agents signed for at least the next two years unless any new FA deals expire in one or two years and they total under $4MM. That money is not going to get a top four D guy or a top six forward. trades of current assets won't make the team net better.

Next year won't look a lot different from this year unless some kids suddenly become NHL ready. Maybe Joki makes it in. He will be slotted as a #2 when he is really a #3/4 with upside to develop. Beyond him I just don't see much coming from the farm until two seasons from now where you might get one or two more guys. Since they are stuck with 2/7 for their duration, might as well have them around to teach the new kids....really the only way you can spin that.

Maybe it is just best to set expectations based upon reality instead of fantasy and accept that there are no more cup runs with the veterans in the cards and the true rebuild really is on in spite of the spew from McD.

Let's just hope that rebuild is not built on a false strategic premise that going all in on speed and hands is enough to overcome the concurrent need for some balls on the walls. Much of what ails this team is the inability to gain and maintain possession of 50/50 pucks.

Saw that about Entwistle and wrote about that a few blogs ago.

I would say it's a long-shot. Playing centre in the NHL is really, really hard. I suspect he heads to Rockford for a season or 2.

Also, not sure if Entwistle ends up as a C in the NHL. He will need to prove he's quick enough.

quite impressive what the young cat has accomplished...never thought 40 with him this year..

the hawks have really fallen in love with that cross ice back door play...time to get another tactic in their arsenal; teams and goalies are prepared with that...

the hawks should go for 5-6...i suspect he and his agent would be amenable to that...he would be 28 at that point with hopefully whole of big numbers behind him...

I'm hoping this dude Cole Caulfield (https://www.eliteprospect...ayer/316168/cole-caufield)
slides down on draft day and the pens retain their first pick and get him.

This guy plays an awful like debrincat and teams will hesitate based off his size, but he's putting up ridiculous totals for the USTNDP (surpassing Matthews/Eichel &co)

quite impressive what the young cat has accomplished...never thought 40 with him this year..

the hawks have really fallen in love with that cross ice back door play...time to get another tactic in their arsenal; teams and goalies are prepared with that...

the hawks should go for 5-6...i suspect he and his agent would be amenable to that...he would be 28 at that point with hopefully whole of big numbers behind him...
- bogiedoc

Back in the day, Sharp had the dot on that back door play. Opponents caught on and took it away (witness game 7 OT PP in 2011 against Luongo).

AdB will be able to figure out and adjust, I think - can Colliton?

On the topic of DeBrincat, what will his next contract look like in terms of term and dollars?

Do the Hawks go just 5 years like the Leafs did with Matthews? Or so they look to lock him up for 7 or 8? I’d go longer than 5 with DeBrincat if possible.

For money I think DeBrincat will get $8 million. The Hawks don’t have to sign DeBrincat this season, but there are two guys who are RFAs this summer that will be used as markers for him - Boeser and Connor. In Vancouver the talk is of Boeser getting at least $7 million. Connor will get more than Boeser and DeBrincat should get more than Connor.

DeBrincat will be expensive, but worth it.
- DarthKane

Isn't he too small and have a terrible attitude to be "worth it"?

Back in the day, Sharp had the dot on that back door play. Opponents caught on and took it away (witness game 7 OT PP in 2011 against Luongo).

AdB will be able to figure out and adjust, I think - can Colliton?
- StLBravesFan

Plenty of teams use that play (Look at Laine, Ovechkin, Panarin, etc.). Its not necessarily that they catch on to it or not. Most if not all teams know it is coming. They also have to contend with Kane having the puck on the other side and Toews down low (and apparently now Gus roving and having an accurate shot. You can't just take away the backdoor play, or Kane will ruin your day.

It all comes down to maintaining movement and Cat actually finding the opening. we see it over and over again, when the PP is stagnant and guys don't move their feet, they get embarrassed.

A couple corrections: Kurashev is on Quebec and Red Deer lost their series 0-4.

Yes, you’re right, my mistake. Hockey dB lists him as a RW too. I could have sworn I saw him playing center for CAN at world juniors.
- scottak

I think he's good on faceoffs. I think he was playing center before he was traded to Guelph. To your previous question I hope he spends some time in Rockford to play against men and play in a professional environment before he makes the step to the NHL. I think all players, except the elite, benefit from time in the AHL.

Saw that about Entwistle and wrote about that a few blogs ago.

I would say it's a long-shot. Playing centre in the NHL is really, really hard. I suspect he heads to Rockford for a season or 2.

Also, not sure if Entwistle ends up as a C in the NHL. He will need to prove he's quick enough.
- Justin Lowe

Thanks!