James Tanner: John Carlson: Pending UFA Leads League in D Points

Basically a "Must Sign". Although I get the impression he really likes playing for the Caps. I can see him taking a bit of a discount for longer term

Basically a "Must Sign". Although I get the impression he really likes playing for the Caps. I can see him taking a bit of a discount for longer term
- Maverick1818

I honestly think it's better to let him walk rather than pay what he'll demand.

I honestly think it's better to let him walk rather than pay what he'll demand.
- james_tanner1

I don't think so. The Caps can't keep losing cornerstone players and he is their #1D. that would be like LA letting Doughty walk. It would just be a bad idea.

I don't think so. The Caps can't keep losing cornerstone players and he is their #1D. that would be like LA letting Doughty walk. It would just be a bad idea.
- Maverick1818

If you read the post, you'll learn how despite scoring a ton of points, he's not that helpful. He is in no way like Doughty. Also, the Capitals best defenseman is Orlov and their second best is Niskanen. John Carlson, despite scoring so much, is really only their third best defenseman. And since he causes as many goals to go in as he scores, I'm not sure he'd even be missed.

Certainly he isn't worth paying $7 million for, especially as he starts his 30s.

If you read the post, you'll learn how despite scoring a ton of points, he's not that helpful. He is in no way like Doughty. Also, the Capitals best defenseman is Orlov and their second best is Niskanen. John Carlson, despite scoring so much, is really only their third best defenseman. And since he causes as many goals to go in as he scores, I'm not sure he'd even be missed.

Certainly he isn't worth paying $7 million for, especially as he starts his 30s.
- james_tanner1

You think so? I did read the article.

I find he is the best D for setting up Ovi for "his shot" from the top left circle, more than any other D. For a team that is as offensive minded as the Caps, they need that chemistry

I bet he starts at $7M and the team starts at $5.5M and they end up somewhere around $6M with a longer term or $6.5M with a shorter term.

Every interview I've seen he seems to love playing in Washington and wants them to have success so I see no reason he wouldn't want to resign.

They can easily replace him with gormley and rundblad

We can trade you Alzner back for him

I think drawing the distinction of secondary assists not being valuable (or at least so much less valuable than primary assists) for a Dman is completely unfair and ignores a lot of reasons behind why a player might get secondary assists.

For example, is Calrson's role in ripping a wicked breakout pass that sets up a two on one where both forwards touch the puck not just as valuable as if the pass receiver were to snipe it himself? Has this been a trend in his career that has proven repeatable? I think there should be more nuance than just primary assists >>> secondary assists. It doesn't at all explore why a player might get fewer primary assists (good pass breakouts but poor skate outs).

Not necessarily gonna question your final conclusion of the player; just the part about assists.

Absolutely Carlson is a player you want to sign to a 7M deal into his 30's. No brainer.

Good morning everyone .can they front load a deal?..8..6.5 ..6.5 ..5 ..5....4...4..at 7years(as an example?) would bring him to 35. And depending on his conditioning... defense men at 34/35..years old doesn't seem unreasonable at 4mil a season ..plus being a good dman..they could unload him in year 4?..the first year and year two are what others are making in the free market..the market will dictate the price?..hopefully this will work out one way or another

If you read the post, you'll learn how despite scoring a ton of points, he's not that helpful. He is in no way like Doughty. Also, the Capitals best defenseman is Orlov and their second best is Niskanen. John Carlson, despite scoring so much, is really only their third best defenseman. And since he causes as many goals to go in as he scores, I'm not sure he'd even be missed.

Certainly he isn't worth paying $7 million for, especially as he starts his 30s.
- james_tanner1

Do you have any data to support that he causes as many goals to go in as he scores? What would the Caps record be without Carlson? Do you ever consider how one player taking on a role on a team helps another player to able to play in a role better suited for him? There are so many nuances to this game that you just don't get Tanner.

Do you have any data to support that he causes as many goals to go in as he scores? What would the Caps record be without Carlson? Do you ever consider how one player taking on a role on a team helps another player to able to play in a role better suited for him? There are so many nuances to this game that you just don't get Tanner.
- MJL

Agree. .that there are many variables to this decision (signing him)...could send a ripple affect. .if they don't have a replacement for his minutes/ points....leadership?

Do you have any data to support that he causes as many goals to go in as he scores? What would the Caps record be without Carlson? Do you ever consider how one player taking on a role on a team helps another player to able to play in a role better suited for him? There are so many nuances to this game that you just don't get Tanner.
- MJL

Yes, as quoted in the article, which you are free to look up yourself, he is a negative differential player in shot attempts, shots, scoring chances and goals.

I am open to new information, but no one has yet been able to explain to me how you can be a negative in all measurements and still contribute positively. I'm not saying it can't be done, but I haven't been able to grasp how.

As for how his role affects others, it's not as nuanced as you seem to be implying, because all that stuff is superseded by the contract he's going to sign. Let's say they lock him in until he's 35 at $7 per, which I think is a reasonable guess. That means that he's taking up that cap space, while he declines, all the while being paid for a season he can't possibly replicate.

It's exactly like last year when they signed Oshie.

I think drawing the distinction of secondary assists not being valuable (or at least so much less valuable than primary assists) for a Dman is completely unfair and ignores a lot of reasons behind why a player might get secondary assists.

For example, is Calrson's role in ripping a wicked breakout pass that sets up a two on one where both forwards touch the puck not just as valuable as if the pass receiver were to snipe it himself? Has this been a trend in his career that has proven repeatable? I think there should be more nuance than just primary assists >>> secondary assists. It doesn't at all explore why a player might get fewer primary assists (good pass breakouts but poor skate outs).

Not necessarily gonna question your final conclusion of the player; just the part about assists.
- MaximumBone

It's a fair thing to question, but I think secondary assists are awarded in the same way the NBA calls traveling for star players going to the rim - if it looks good, who cares?

Since they inflate point totals, it's something to use as a comparison when two players have similar totals. For instance, given his high shooting percentage (relative) and his high number of secondary assists, Carlson's 28 5v5 points aren't as good as Gardiners 28 5v5 points.

Do you have any data to support that he causes as many goals to go in as he scores? What would the Caps record be without Carlson? Do you ever consider how one player taking on a role on a team helps another player to able to play in a role better suited for him? There are so many nuances to this game that you just don't get Tanner.
- MJL

His individual shooting percentages (both personal and on-ice) are running hot compared to his established career average which accounts for a regression of somewhere in the range of 4-7 points. He's shooting at a noticeably higher rate this year than the last couple, but since precedent exists for this range of shot totals back in 2013-14, I'd suggest it's likely not an anomaly.

As for his possession numbers, his raw CF% (Corsi) is 48.8 which compares favourably to his team overall as he has a positive impact of 1.58% relative to his teammates when he's off the ice- though this could be related to who he's on the ice with most often (Ovechkin, perhaps). His team-relative FF% (Fenwick) and SC% (Scoring Chance) are statistically insignificant to the point where they're effectively even, but an area he shows some difficulty is team-relative GF% (Goals) where he underperforms relative to his team yet still pulls ahead of even at 50.5%.

This can be explained largely by Kuznetsov who is a prime example of a player who struggles to control shot differentials but still outproduces his opposition which- in combination with the team's lack of depth- might explain some of the team's overall lean in that regard. So while he's having a small but still noticeable positive impact on his team at 5-on-5, the fact that he:

a.) likely doesn't play with Kuznetsov as often as he does with Backstrom and

b.) plays a semi-regular shift with the 4th line on a team lacking forward depth

Likely explains his negative, team-relative impact on GF%.

I don't think Tanner does a good job laying it out clearly, but he's certainly not the sort of Dman to carry and drive results at 5-on-5 as the sole focal point on a blueline which I believe is more the crux of his point. He's likely to be paid as such which makes it a wiser investment to have moved on from him last year and retained Schmidt along with the substantial assets trading Carlson would've afforded the team.

It's a fair thing to question, but I think secondary assists are awarded in the same way the NBA calls traveling for star players going to the rim - if it looks good, who cares?

Since they inflate point totals, it's something to use as a comparison when two players have similar totals. For instance, given his high shooting percentage (relative) and his high number of secondary assists, Carlson's 28 5v5 points aren't as good as Gardiners 28 5v5 points.
- james_tanner1

I guess that's a valid point worth considering, though I'm not as certain as you are that there's any significant amount of inflating point totals. If the play or action was fundamental in creating the chance that led to the goal, so long as no one on the opposing team got full control of the puck before it went in, why not afford the assists?

As for your point regarding Carlson Vs Gardiner, I won't go in too hard on this point as I don't have anything against your boy Jake, but when directly comparing 5-on-5 output of a Dman (particularly one known as a significant offensive contributor) I think it's worth noting the forward talent they have access to at 5-on-5. While it's not their primary role, when sharing the ice with their respective team's 3rd and 4th lines is it not fair to suggest that Gardiner has a notable edge in skill and ability Jake gets to play with when compared to Carlson? Guys like Bozak, Kadri, sometimes Marleau, Brown and Kapanen are FAR superior to guys like Eller, Burakovsky, DSP, Chiasson and Stephenson so naturally Gardiner would score better in that time. Is Jake still producing more impressive outputs when both are on the ice with their team's best players (Matthews line Vs Ovechkin line)?

It also furthers my question earlier about what style of breakout does the team and player default to. More skate-out or pass-out? Long pass or short pass? To my admittedly limited knowledge, Gardiner seems to be a great skater with strong lateral mobility so he has the skillset to skate the puck out thus joining the rush. Meanwhile, Carlson seems like more of an average skater (again, based off limited viewings) so it's fair to suggest he likely passes out more often than he does skate it out thus acting as the trailer. I'm not certain that this would lead to anything of statistical significance in the long run, but I think it's worth considering.

You think so? I did read the article.

I find he is the best D for setting up Ovi for "his shot" from the top left circle, more than any other D. For a team that is as offensive minded as the Caps, they need that chemistry

I bet he starts at $7M and the team starts at $5.5M and they end up somewhere around $6M with a longer term or $6.5M with a shorter term.

Every interview I've seen he seems to love playing in Washington and wants them to have success so I see no reason he wouldn't want to resign.
- Maverick1818

I don't think any player who's been on a bargain contract for so many years is going to take a home town discount.

Yes, as quoted in the article, which you are free to look up yourself, he is a negative differential player in shot attempts, shots, scoring chances and goals.


- Feanor

Again you show your lack of understanding in what analytics are capable of telling us. There are 4 other skaters on the ice with him. There is no data to support your statement. The only way to tell that would be to watch the games and have a really good understanding if defensive zone coverages and who is truly at fault. A really good defender can still have all of those negative numbers.

I am open to new information, but no one has yet been able to explain to me how you can be a negative in all measurements and still contribute positively. I'm not saying it can't be done, but I haven't been able to grasp how.

As for how his role affects others, it's not as nuanced as you seem to be implying, because all that stuff is superseded by the contract he's going to sign. Let's say they lock him in until he's 35 at $7 per, which I think is a reasonable guess. That means that he's taking up that cap space, while he declines, all the while being paid for a season he can't possibly replicate.

It's exactly like last year when they signed Oshie.
- Feanor

The nuances of the game of hockey have zero to do with a future contract a player is going to sign.

They can easily replace him with gormley and rundblad

Sign both for 1.5 combined. Cap crunch averted.

1st and 2nd assists are meaningless...sometimes the player that gets no assists or goal made the goal happen....its worst then plus minus.

Edit: not saying youre wrong about signing JC.

Sign both for 1.5 combined. Cap crunch averted.
- leafsfann

2.2 and they could have Franson for an all world D

easily the best d option in FA. cap is going up... he will get offers close to subbans on the open market. what did tanner say... 7 mil a year? in peoples dreams. 8 X 7 is the starting point. and in silly season someone will pay it. could the caps get a hometown discount closer to 7 for 8 years? maybe.

I thought James was no longer responding to our comments? Did that stop so quickly?

Pretty much only thing James got right is Orlov is very quietly our all around best defenseman. Carlson was forced to play 29 mins a night for months and was saddled with a rookie partner. He belongs in Norris conversation but at his age i would offer 5 for 40 and let him walk