Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Patience and Prospects

First! The reality of the situation is that they have a glut of forwards and they're going to have to trade some of them for either defense or a new goaltender after they buyout Bryz and the most likely candidates are Couturier or Schenn.

Great article Bill. You are by far the best reporter around the Flyers. Why you have not been hired by one of the newspapers or the Flyers themselves full time is beyond me. That being said, I do see a vast improvement in patient with Holmgren as opposed to Clarke. Holmgren gets bashed a lot, but IMO he has a keen eye for young talent and a willingness to play them thru growing pains. Matt Carle and now Luke Schenn are two examples of young struggling defensemen that he was willing to take a chance on believing better days were ahead. Clarke would have got an aging veteran defensemen or more than likely another forward.

On an organizational level, the Flyers' perpetual win-now philosophy has very much played into their chronic inability to develop homegrown defensemen and goaltenders (though one could also argue that the pre-NHL scouting assessments of the pool of players entering the organization at these positions have also left something to be desired). There is very little tolerance for living through protracted growing pains.

Unfortunately, the learning curve for defensemen and goalies is even steeper and more protracted that that of forwards.

Unless you are prepared to wait as much as five years on a young defenseman or goaltending prospect to develop -- accepting inconsistency as part of the price tag and understanding there's a risk that your patience will never pay off in potential turning into performance -- your organization is going to have a tough time filling these positions from within.

A big part of the reason why the Flyers perpetually find themselves bumping against the salary cap ceiling is that the entire defense corps and the starting goaltending has had to be acquired from outside the organization via trade or free agency. That inability to build premium positions from within drives up the expenditure of cap space as well as depleting trading assets (especially in a leaguewide sellers' market for defensemen).

That's the Flyers biggest weakness in a nutshell. A little patience on the backend would be a nice change of pace.

Great article Bill. You are by far the best reporter around the Flyers. Why you have not been hired by one of the newspapers or the Flyers themselves full time is beyond me. That being said, I do see a vast improvement in patient with Holmgren as opposed to Clarke. Holmgren gets bashed a lot, but IMO he has a keen eye for young talent and a willingness to play them thru growing pains. Matt Carle and now Luke Schenn are two examples of young struggling defensemen that he was willing to take a chance on believing better days were ahead. Clarke would have got an aging veteran defensemen or more than likely another forward.
- psuhockey

Really? Matt Carle was supposed to be the successor to Boyle and was traded when they realized he wasn't. The Flyers in that draft had elected to trade their 1st round pick for Steve Eminger instead of drafting a defenseman (Caps drafted Carlsson). Because of that huge miscalculation of giving up a 1st round pick for a 3rd pairing defenseman, a mistake they realized very early in the season they were forced to trade for someone else's defensive "mistake". All in all Tampa got Eminger, Downie and a 4th. In essence that represents 2 1sts and a 4th for Carle (a second pairing defenseman) when the better option would've been to select Carlsson with that pick.

Holmgren has had no choice but to go young with the forwards because of all the cap space spent and picks traded for defense and goaltending.

With the Flyers philosophy, if they didn't have a good track record with 1st round forwards and college free agents they'd be looking up at the islanders every year because you can't afford to buy your entire team through Free agency anymore.

Bill, (your words)
"However, to deal away Couturier or Schenn based solely on what they have or haven't done in this shortened season is extremely short-sighted"


don't know if "everyone's" idea is to deal one of these guys because of impatience in a shortened season, more so reasons of the balance that you mentioned, if Kimmo were 3-5 years younger & Mez wasn't the walking wounded, I would hold on to them, but you have to "give to get" in a trade, (see JVR), and again, being a little "center heavy" at the risk of having a shoddy defense next season is scary

personally I don't bash Courturier, but do we need both he & B Schenn when we have a potential hole on the back line next year?

First! The reality of the situation is that they have a glut of forwards and they're going to have to trade some of them for either defense or a new goaltender after they buyout Bryz and the most likely candidates are Couturier or Schenn.
- lar6767

yup!

Great article Bill. You are by far the best reporter around the Flyers. Why you have not been hired by one of the newspapers or the Flyers themselves full time is beyond me. That being said, I do see a vast improvement in patient with Holmgren as opposed to Clarke. Holmgren gets bashed a lot, but IMO he has a keen eye for young talent and a willingness to play them thru growing pains. Matt Carle and now Luke Schenn are two examples of young struggling defensemen that he was willing to take a chance on believing better days were ahead. Clarke would have got an aging veteran defensemen or more than likely another forward.
- psuhockey

Every case is different, but it's not hard to build an argument for the Flyers showing just as little patience during the Holmgren era as with Clarke. Let's look at their first round picks and some other major decisions where they pulled the trigger very quickly:

* Steve Downie was drafted in the first round in 2005. He spent about half of one year with the big club and then got dealt early the next year.

* The Flyers traded a first-round pick to acquire Steve Eminger from Washington. A few weeks into his first season, he and Downie got traded to Tampa for Matt Carle (a move that worked out for Philly, but an undeniable quick reversal of course).

* Luca Sbisa was drafted in the first round in 2008. He spent one year in the organization, being called a building block player. The next summer, he's part of the package to acquire Chris Pronger and take a run at the Cup in 2009-10.

* The Flyers signed Mike Richards and Jeff Carter to long-term contract extensions, signifying an intention to keep building around them for the long haul. Then they traded both of them away within a year. They may have been good moves that improved the team in the long haul, but that's not the point here. The point is the fact of a sudden reversal of direction.

* The Flyers signed James van Riemsdyk to a long-term contract extension after his run in the 2011 playoffs. One injury-plagued down year later, he's traded.

Brilliant evaluation of the short term mind set of the Toronto Maple Leafs. There are many differences between the Flyers and Leafs and overall the Flyers have performed at a higher level almost every year.

But, when it comes to ownership it is apparent that a lack of patience has been an ongoing ailment for both ownership groups.

Do not want to make this about the Leafs, really do appreciate the courtesy and tolerance Flyer fans have extended to me on this thread. But, my life as a Leaf fan flashed before my eyes as I was reading Bill's account.

Every case is different, but it's not hard to build an argument for the Flyers showing just as little patience during the Holmgren era as with Clarke. Let's look at their first round picks and some other major decisions where they pulled the trigger very quickly:

* Steve Downie was drafted in the first round in 2005. He spent about half of one year with the big club and then got dealt early the next year.

* The Flyers traded a first-round pick to acquire Steve Eminger from Washington. A few weeks into his first season, he and Downie got traded to Tampa for Matt Carle (a move that worked out for Philly, but an undeniable quick reversal of course).

* Luca Sbisa was drafted in the first round in 2008. He spent one year in the organization, being called a building block player. The next summer, he's part of the package to acquire Chris Pronger and take a run at the Cup in 2009-10.

* The Flyers signed Mike Richards and Jeff Carter to long-term contract extensions, signifying an intention to keep building around them for the long haul. Then they traded both of them away within a year. They may have been good moves that improved the team in the long haul, but that's not the point here. The point is the fact of a sudden reversal of direction.

* The Flyers signed James van Riemsdyk to a long-term contract extension after his run in the 2011 playoffs. One injury-plagued down year later, he's traded.
- bmeltzer

As usual Bill, I completely agree that it is an organizational philosophy that needs to change. For so long Mr. Snider has dictated to management what the team needs and it is usually after a failed playoff series/cup run. Going all the way back to the late 60s/early 70s Snider mandated the direction the team needed to headed in. Back then it was toughness and it worked out, but those teams has arguably the best goalie in the league at the time.
I've been stating in these blogs, that the Flyers need to revamp their European scouting department. So many good goaltenders and defensmen come from those leagues and the Flyers do a poor job drafting from there. Detroit would be a perfect model to follow from that perspective.

First! The reality of the situation is that they have a glut of forwards and they're going to have to trade some of them for either defense or a new goaltender after they buyout Bryz and the most likely candidates are Couturier or Schenn.
- lar6767

Bryz should not be a buyout candidate

If we end up with a top 5 pick and Jones is off the board I have zero issue with taking a forward like Drouin or McKinnon and moving B Schenn or Coots for a D man via trade, and I don't see how that would be short-sighted.

Bryz is running low on gas, and god forbid he gets injured but I'm definitely feeling a top 5 pick is on the way this year.

I think B. Schenn and Couturier could be excellent players in this league for some time, but I'm still not 100% sold on either, especially Couturier. Yes he did a marvelous job shutting Malkin down in the playoffs last year. His offensive numbers as a rookie were nothing to sneeze at either. Unfortunately this year, and I understand that we're seeing a very condensed sample, he has shown a propensity to make so many glaring mistakes. The turnovers he makes are ones that even in pee wee hockey they teach you not to. Struggling to finish is one thing, but the turnovers and how easily he gets knocked off the puck, loses board battles and quits on the play shows me he has more than confidence problems. I know I'm no professional hockey player, but even when I did struggle scoring at the college level, I made sure I didn't hurt the team by turning the puck over in scoring areas and I fought like crazy not to lose the puck and never ever quit on a play.

Bryz should not be a buyout candidate
- Just5

The problem lies in who do you replace him with?

First! The reality of the situation is that they have a glut of forwards and they're going to have to trade some of them for either defense or a new goaltender after they buyout Bryz and the most likely candidates are Couturier or Schenn.
- lar6767

Yeah, buy out Bryz, because there is a long line of readily available NHL-caliber goaltenders with Brodeur/Roy-level skills just waiting in the wings to be signed.

You're a genius.

The problem lies in who do you replace him with?
- aantny88

This offseason they could see what Ottawa wants for Bishop.

But I think they wait till summer 2014 and see who's available then. Six more years of Bryz after that with a NMC and a 5.67m cap hit is a scary thought.

I hope the flyers can sign one of the two top d college free agents

FACT: Bill is right.

FACT: The Flyers are not winning the cup this season. So any panic moves they make will hurt them long term by giving up growing youth in exchange for an in vain push this year.

FACT: This organization, for once in it's life, needs to stick to a plan, and make appropriate changes in the off-season, that will not negatively affect the young nucleus of this offense.

FACT: "Based on message board, Twitter and radio show fodder, it is crystal clear that a big segment of the Flyers fan base doesn't get the concept that: " - Most people on message boards and social networking sites don't understand much at all about building and growing a team, and are pissed when the GM doesn't land every all-star for a steal. I get so sick of hearing the Flyers being thrown in every time a player is rumored to be "available" for trade. Time to wake up to reality.

If we end up with a top 5 pick and Jones is off the board I have zero issue with taking a forward like Drouin or McKinnon and moving B Schenn or Coots for a D man via trade, and I don't see how that would be short-sighted.

Bryz is running low on gas, and god forbid he gets injured but I'm definitely feeling a top 5 pick is on the way this year.
- hereticpride

Take best available no matter what in the first round.

The problem lies in who do you replace him with?
- aantny88

Mike Smith is probably the Bryz haters flavor of the week at the moment. I don't know why people keep throwing his name out there tho. I'm pretty sure Phoenix will re-up the guy as their back-up options arent all that great.

The other option is trade assets away for a new goalie, which I shouldn't have to tell people makes no sense, but it seems like we're here saying it every day.

Take best available no matter what in the first round.
- Just5

If we're in the top 5 and Jones is gone I think that may end up being a forward then.

Bryz should not be a buyout candidate
- Just5

ever?

First! The reality of the situation is that they have a glut of forwards and they're going to have to trade some of them for either defense or a new goaltender after they buyout Bryz and the most likely candidates are Couturier or Schenn.
- lar6767

IMO they do not have a glut of forwards. They have at most 1 NHL caliber forward graduating to the NHL next year and that would be Laughton. If Briere get's bought out/traded then that's it. There's noone to replace Schenn or Couterier.

The Flyers were so desperate at forward this year they brought in Knuble and Fedotenko in the middle of the year. This depth the Flyers have to offset the loss of a forward, i'm not seeing it. In addition, Gagne is a UFA. While he has been useful for the Flyers, the Kings thank the Flyers for giving them a 4th round pick for a 3.5mill/yr healthy scratch. The last time Gagne was dealt in a salary dump the Flyers had to take salary back in the form of Matt Walker (who the Flyers are still paying in the minors). The Kings seem to be far better at dumping salary than the Flyers.

Every case is different, but it's not hard to build an argument for the Flyers showing just as little patience during the Holmgren era as with Clarke. Let's look at their first round picks and some other major decisions where they pulled the trigger very quickly:

* Steve Downie was drafted in the first round in 2005. He spent about half of one year with the big club and then got dealt early the next year.

* The Flyers traded a first-round pick to acquire Steve Eminger from Washington. A few weeks into his first season, he and Downie got traded to Tampa for Matt Carle (a move that worked out for Philly, but an undeniable quick reversal of course).

* Luca Sbisa was drafted in the first round in 2008. He spent one year in the organization, being called a building block player. The next summer, he's part of the package to acquire Chris Pronger and take a run at the Cup in 2009-10.

* The Flyers signed Mike Richards and Jeff Carter to long-term contract extensions, signifying an intention to keep building around them for the long haul. Then they traded both of them away within a year. They may have been good moves that improved the team in the long haul, but that's not the point here. The point is the fact of a sudden reversal of direction.

* The Flyers signed James van Riemsdyk to a long-term contract extension after his run in the 2011 playoffs. One injury-plagued down year later, he's traded.
- bmeltzer

Bill, as always...great read and excellent points in this reply.
I think that the sad reality is that what has kept Flyer fans so loyal for so long, the "WIN WIN WIN, NOW, NOW, NOW" attitude from Ed Snyder on down...means they can't get over the hump and really win.

And please lets not all forget Justin Williams and Patrick Sharpe in the "OMG" of Flyers trade history/givig up on youth.

FACT: Bill is right.

FACT: The Flyers are not winning the cup this season. So any panic moves they make will hurt them long term by giving up growing youth in exchange for an in vain push this year.

FACT: This organization, for once in it's life, needs to stick to a plan, and make appropriate changes in the off-season, that will not negatively affect the young nucleus of this offense.

FACT: "Based on message board, Twitter and radio show fodder, it is crystal clear that a big segment of the Flyers fan base doesn't get the concept that: " - Most people on message boards and social networking sites don't understand much at all about building and growing a team, and are pissed when the GM doesn't land every all-star for a steal. I get so sick of hearing the Flyers being thrown in every time a player is rumored to be "available" for trade. Time to wake up to reality.
- WarriorHockey21

FACT: Good post.