Brandon Smillie: What’s The Next Moves For GM Hughes?
First, thanks to Ek and Co. for leaving my blog spot open so I can come back and throw my thoughts into the void every so often!
Second, congrats to the B2B Stanley Cup Champs the Florida Panthers! They are deserving Champs with a great team and management group.
Well, that was an amazing season for GM Hughes and his Habs. I would suggest most people thought the Canadiens were a bottom 5-10 team before the season began, but a path back to competitiveness appeared to be just on the horizon. Surprise surprise! The Habs made a second half charge this season to vault themselves into the playoffs and gain some valuable experience for the young core. Some may have wanted one more high draft pick before the team fully turned the rebuild corner but if you aren’t picking in the top 2 this draft it’s a fairly mixed bag and no clear elite level players. It’s probably one of the weaker drafts in the last few years so trading a 5th overall pick in this draft for the experience of a playoff battle against the NHL’s greatest goal scorer is totally fine by me. The experience gave the core a chance to see how the playoffs game is played, the pressure that comes with it, and the reflection afterwards to internalize what they must do to level themselves up for the next round they get into.
All things considered, the NHL squad made some serious progress and gave a glimpse of what’s coming up.
I think moving forward the needs of the team are clear: top 6 Center, top 4 impact defensive Defenseman, perhaps a crafty vet presence in net for Monty (while Fowler cuts his teeth in the AHL). Montreal has some interesting F prospects (Beck and Hage) that might be able to help long term in that middle 6 C position but we’re talking 2-3 years before we can say for certain and that’s enough time to justify bringing in a quality top 6 C for a 3-5 year deal in the meantime. The worst move of Hughes term so far is unequivocally the disastrous trade for overrated Kirby Dach. I have never been a Dach fan as it was clear he wasn’t going to be an impact player even in Jr., he was just bigger than his peers in the moment and his size was too attractive to scouts. I was watching the draft when the trade was made and I instantly was disgusted. The fact that the pick we dealt for him was used to grab the ultra talented Frank Nazar (a prospect I was VERY high on) made it even more disgusting…. The time to dump his contract is now before he stumbles getting off the ice and blows another knee out, or back, or wrist, or shoulder. Kirby Glass has to go. Who can they get to replace him? Well, it will likely be a stinky end of a ugly deal for a 45-55 pt C but if it fits the timeline of 2-4 years it could be a good complimentary set up for the top 6. Rumors are VGK C Karlsson is available, same with CGY’s Kadri. I’m certain Seguin could be had out of Dallas but he will occupy way more cap than he’s worth and maybe put GM Hughes behind the 8-ball when trying to negotiate new deals for young guys who need them as they will no doubt point to that cap hit and production to make GM Hughes bend. Another option could be to bribe FLA C Sam Bennett with a $9.5-$10 mill per deal but I don’t know if that’s ideal either as I believe Bennett, while a great player, benefits greatly from the team and organization of Florida. If he became a defensively elite 45-50 pt C for 4 yrs of the 7 to start that might not be the best use of cap space and time with the core signed to these team friendly deals. Conversely, some could argue it’s the perfect time to overpay a top 6 niche player since the deals are so friendly for the core.
It will be interesting to see which direction GM Hughes goes in but I think that last seasons progress should be built upon and to do that the plan has to began to explore being aggressive in the pursuit supporting the team to find the next level. Need good depth for that and you need at minimum two top lines and then building a bottom six that drives teams crazy with their relentlessness and effectiveness. Tough task but Montreal is very close to making that happen. The key will be ensuring cap space flexibility for deadline acquisitions, utilizing LTIR (seems to be the key to playoff load up lately), and making SMART trades. Aside from the Dach completely unforced error GM Hughes has been an excellent deal maker. I think he can take the next step too in his role and will over the next couple seasons.
What about the defense? The Habs are weakest on D despite having current ROY Lane Hutson twirling around out there on the PP. Great skater and play maker, but may not have the shot to truly be the all around back end threat. Not having a point shooter is a massive hole. Solid NHL squads need 2-3 top level passers and at MINIMUM one top D man who’s shot MUST be respected, preferably 2. I think the development of Reinbacher this season will be the most important to support as he is the key to resolving the problem described above. He has everything needed to be a top pair, top PP shooter, all-round Defenseman that will become the D cores backbone. The injuries this past season are disappointing but he’s bounced back to return to a high level and even progress despite dealing with setbacks and to me that’s the key. Getting him acclimated to the NHL and growing his strength/conditioning to the next level is key so that should MTL find themselves in a playoff position again, Reinbacher is finding his groove at the right time going into spring hockey. The other option to improve from within on D is Mailloux who I think is a fantastic prospect who has been marred by a mistake as a teen. I believe Mailloux is a trade chip though and won’t be a long-term part of the plan for MTL. They are going to go all in on Reinbacher/Hutson/Guhle and support from there and I think that’s the best plan IMO. The rebuild has been great despite not landing a 1st overall generational talent (no offense Slaf!) like McDavid.
Who can the Habs bring in to support the D group and train the kids for the next levels? VGK Pietrangelo ($8.8 x 2 yrs remaining) is rumored to be on the block. There is also rumblings that BUF is open to moving former 1st overall pick Owen Power ($8.35 x 6) as well. 2 time Stanley Cup Champ Aaron Ekblad is a UFA this summer as well and would probably be ideal for the situation MTL is in as they get Reinbacher up to speed but seeing how fondly is spoke of the Panthers and teared up saying how bad the wants to stay with them for life, I think he’s taking a big discount to stay. Another big swing could be made to give them a PP shooter in picking up PITT’s Erik Karlsson ($10 x 2). GM Dubas is a clearly not as astute as his peers around the league so a deal could be relatively palatable for MTL and gives 2 seasons of one of the leagues most elite offensive D men. 2 seasons to help score goals and train the young players. That could be a huge win and then leave MTL with finding a top end bottom 4 impact defensive D.
This year will be a development year for F Ivan Demidov as well. Expectations should be tempered as moving from the KHL to the NHL is a MASSIVE leap. Give him time and let’s work towards a similar situation as Reinbacher. Develop and become an NHL pro all season and hit your stride in the spring. Be patient fans. It’s looking real good.
Let’s look at the draft. Habs have back to back picks at 16-17 overall and I’ve been wondering who they can target. I’ve concluded that unless there’s a massive slider like
