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Forums :: Blog World :: Aaron Musick: Avs rebound in Minnesota
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Steve-B
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Ann Arbor, MI
Joined: 07.20.2011

Mar 5 @ 12:43 AM ET
I really think what is more interesting to think about is not particular players such as suter but to think about what matter in this situation.

I think its not whether we can afford to spend money or whether having 3 top 2 centers is a good or bad thing. How much should you pay a player by the position he plays.

Stastny this year was untouchable because there really wasn't anything that would make our team better right now if we traded for him. He is still a great player.

However, O'reilly is looking like: our future captain, the avs best center this year, and as great as he is defensively he is no longer a 3rd liner. Peca was a 3rd liner, Raydar is just too skilled and has great chemistry with the avs best winger in Landeskog. Also, you don't draft a player #3 overall in Duchene and play him as a winger or give him 3rd line minutes. He is a top 2 center. We also have Hishon as a prospect who is great friends with the aforementioned.

Stastny has been inconsistent, older and on a team with amazing depth at center. He is just the odd man out and has great Trade value.

I think Stastny just isn't in the long term future of the avs. That doesn't mean we have to move him anytime soon.

If a team offers up a Suter or a package of a high 1st and a prospect on the level of Armia, you really can't pass that up.

- Meeqsb


I don't want to be the Oilers.. Not trading our most experienced center for more prospects and picks. So that we can continue to tank every year because there is not an ounce of experience on the roster. Management has also said when asked everything to the contrary of what your saying.

As good as the west is becoming.. and as deep as true contending teams are. I think we need to get off the old "3rd" line/ Bottom 6/ Top 6 mentality.

Screw that.. As long as you can fit it within the cap.. Be as good at every single position as you possibly can be. There are always injuries and there is 82 games every year with hits getting harder and harder.
Steve-B
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Ann Arbor, MI
Joined: 07.20.2011

Mar 5 @ 12:46 AM ET
Landeskog when he is up for a contract will most likely be seeing numbers near 5 or 6.

Also as good as Sherman is at signing contracts, you think the avs agents will let the avs get away with deals like that.

- Meeqsb


Get away with deals like that? Have you seen how much power a 21 year old RFA has? lol
Meeqsb
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Denver
Joined: 10.13.2011

Mar 5 @ 12:47 AM ET
Here is a question. Take a look at teams around the league and tell me which one you want the avs too resemble, then take a look at their distribution of the cap.

A team like ANA with no depth? A team like NJ who overpaid for a FA? A team like Chi with no wiggle room with so many of their core locked up for so long? A team like the Pens who's money spent down the middle has made it hard to bring in wingers?

Aaron Musick
Colorado Avalanche
Location: NCC-1701. No bloody A, B, C OR, CO
Joined: 12.17.2007

Mar 5 @ 12:49 AM ET
Here is a question. Take a look at teams around the league and tell me which one you want the avs too resemble, then take a look at their distribution of the cap.

A team like ANA with no depth? A team like NJ who overpaid for a FA? A team like Chi with no wiggle room with so many of their core locked up for so long? A team like the Pens who's money spent down the middle has made it hard to bring in wingers?

- Meeqsb


That's easy, the New York Rangers. They always spend but now they spend smart to keep their prospects and bring in the occasional free agent to help them.

Rangers or Bruins are the best examples of how to set your team up for the cap
Steve-B
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Ann Arbor, MI
Joined: 07.20.2011

Mar 5 @ 12:52 AM ET
Here is a question. Take a look at teams around the league and tell me which one you want the avs too resemble, then take a look at their distribution of the cap.

A team like ANA with no depth? A team like NJ who overpaid for a FA? A team like Chi with no wiggle room with so many of their core locked up for so long? A team like the Pens who's money spent down the middle has made it hard to bring in wingers?

- Meeqsb


Boston.. Or Pit..

Actually a combination of both. We don't have two 8+ million dollar contracts.. So we have more room than they do.

I think we have a little more potential for pure skill and speed than Boston does. So like I said.. A combination of both.

Oh and both won the Cup within the last what 3 years?

That's easy, the New York Rangers. They always spend but now they spend smart to keep their prospects and bring in the occasional free agent to help them.

Rangers or Bruins are the best examples of how to set your team up for the cap

- martok2309


Exactly..

Meeqsb
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Denver
Joined: 10.13.2011

Mar 5 @ 12:56 AM ET
I don't want to be the Oilers.. Not trading our most experienced center for more prospects and picks. So that we can continue to tank every year because there is not an ounce of experience on the roster. Management has also said when asked everything to the contrary of what your saying.

As good as the west is becoming.. and as deep as true contending teams are. I think we need to get off the old "3rd" line/ Bottom 6/ Top 6 mentality.

Screw that.. As long as you can fit it within the cap.. Be as good at every single position as you possibly can be. There are always injuries and there is 82 games every year with hits getting harder and harder.

- Steve-B


The top and bottom 6 is still the best way to go. Just more of a top and bottom 6 that the Bruins have maybe?

And its not "if you can fit within the cap" but "how long". Don't forget about our prospects such as elliot/seimens/barrie/hishon. How much do you think they will get.

How much are you going to pay players like downie, Mcginn, a backup like giggy, Mueller, ect ect.

HAving cap space is a good thing. We could spend a little here or there, its just to vague to really know.

The avs can do anything they want, but they are there because they haven't overpaid for UFA's and have a ton of younger players, who as years go along are going to be getting paid more and more.

I really think, talking about cap space is like "money burning a hole in your wallet" and that its not be your motive for making a decision.
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Mar 5 @ 12:59 AM ET
Stastny stays, simple as that. I think if he was traded it would be tough on the teams make up and mentality. Wouldn't be well received around the team and could really hurt the long term development of some of the kids. Its not all about the numbers in cap and production that showcases a players worth to the team.

Steve-B
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Ann Arbor, MI
Joined: 07.20.2011

Mar 5 @ 1:04 AM ET
The top and bottom 6 is still the best way to go. Just more of a top and bottom 6 that the Bruins have maybe?

And its not "if you can fit within the cap" but "how long". Don't forget about our prospects such as elliot/seimens/barrie/hishon. How much do you think they will get.

How much are you going to pay players like downie, Mcginn, a backup like giggy, Mueller, ect ect.

HAving cap space is a good thing. We could spend a little here or there, its just to vague to really know.

The avs can do anything they want, but they are there because they haven't overpaid for UFA's and have a ton of younger players, who as years go along are going to be getting paid more and more.

I really think, talking about cap space is like "money burning a hole in your wallet" and that its not be your motive for making a decision.

- Meeqsb


I am not only talking about now and I have showed that.. If your team looks like..

Parise - Stastny - Jones

McGinn - Duchene - Mueller

Landeskog - O'Reilly - Downie

------ Jay McC --------

EJ - Suter

Do you think any goalie will get a contract like Depietro or Luongo again?

There is nothing wrong with letting your prospects play in the AHL and as young as the team is some of those guys could be on the team for 10 years or more. As well as the cap going up over those years for inflation.

Trust me I am taking into account.. Cap space, length of contracts, raises, Cap movement, and player's ages. As well as prospects..

Oh.. I am also taking into account. Winning with a good team, the fact that usually your home grown talent signs for cheaper than most of the UFA pay days, Signing wingers to compliment the center skill we have, and how much I actually think two high caliber UFA's cap hit's would be.. (No one has gotten an 8M cap hit I am pretty sure since the lock out as a UFA. Like I said even Kovalchuk's cap hit is 6.6M)
Meeqsb
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Denver
Joined: 10.13.2011

Mar 5 @ 1:10 AM ET
Ok sweet so Boston has depth, but uses the top and bottom 6 idea very well. They get great players who are role players for bottom 6 and spend money mostly on their top 6 and D. They don't overpay and have a good number of prospects because of deal like kessel(we have stastny) and a Gm that makes smart trades. We have a clever GM as well. The similarities are certainly there.

If you look at them over the past few years, they did have to put Savard on IR to afford to have the depth that they do as well as have rookies such a Seguin and Hamilton that one day will need quite a pay raise.

If you look at the 3 top 2 center system that the pens have, you will notice that their centers will never have the wingers that are on the same level as the centers they play with, I.E dupius(or however you spell it) and kunitz to play with crosby.

So would you take the penguins method and have Duchene play with players like Mcginn and Connoly who are not top 6 wingers and risk that we might not be getting all we can out of him, or trade stastny for some picks and prospects (or another Dman) like the kessel deal from Boston and use the cap to help even out the skill and make us more of a depth team.

The idea of the cap is that you can't have everything in essence. So how do you want the cap to be spent.

Right now we only have 2 top 6 wingers in Lando (who will get 5-6M eventually) and Mueller, who if he can stay healthy and put up top 6 numbers will get 4.

Also if seimens and elliot continue on pace they will both get 3-4.

This cap space the avs have will disappear quickly and is just an illusion of many of our core players being on rookie level contracts.
Meeqsb
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Denver
Joined: 10.13.2011

Mar 5 @ 1:11 AM ET
Stastny stays, simple as that. I think if he was traded it would be tough on the teams make up and mentality. Wouldn't be well received around the team and could really hurt the long term development of some of the kids. Its not all about the numbers in cap and production that showcases a players worth to the team.
- DDM-Coga


Stastny doesn't have that many points offensively, and you can get leadership from players making much less than 6.6mil.

I dont think he gets traded this year, but I think in 2-3 years there is no way he is still here.
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Mar 5 @ 1:15 AM ET
Stastny doesn't have that many points offensively, and you can get leadership from players making much less than 6.6mil.

I dont think he gets traded this year, but I think in 2-3 years there is no way he is still here.

- Meeqsb


in 2 years his contract is up and he can resign at a more reasonable cap hit.
Steve-B
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Ann Arbor, MI
Joined: 07.20.2011

Mar 5 @ 1:16 AM ET
If you look at the 3 top 2 center system that the pens have, you will notice that their centers will never have the wingers that are on the same level as the centers they play with, I.E dupius(or however you spell it) and kunitz to play with crosby.

So would you take the penguins method and have Duchene play with players like Mcginn and Connoly who are not top 6 wingers and risk that we might not be getting all we can out of him, or trade stastny for some picks and prospects (or another Dman) like the kessel deal from Boston and use the cap to help even out the skill and make us more of a depth team.

The idea of the cap is that you can't have everything in essence. So how do you want the cap to be spent.

Right now we only have 2 top 6 wingers in Lando (who will get 5-6M eventually) and Mueller, who if he can stay healthy and put up top 6 numbers will get 4.

Also if seimens and elliot continue on pace they will both get 3-4.

This cap space the avs have will disappear quickly and is just an illusion of many of our core players being on rookie level contracts.

- Meeqsb


None of our centers will cost 8M plus per year.. Not the same thing. (You continue to ignore this)

The cap will change by the time they need raises and other guys will be locked up past that time. Years later when Duchene + O'Reilly need raises it again will not be that much. But the movement in cap would again cover it.
Steve-B
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Ann Arbor, MI
Joined: 07.20.2011

Mar 5 @ 1:17 AM ET
Stastny doesn't have that many points offensively, and you can get leadership from players making much less than 6.6mil.

I dont think he gets traded this year, but I think in 2-3 years there is no way he is still here.

- Meeqsb


This is another argument entirely..

In two years either Stastny's contract goes down by a couple million or he has respectable wingers and is back to a 70 point pace. Do you think he is going to walk if he is playing that good and winning with the guys on his wing?
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Mar 5 @ 1:29 AM ET
Ok sweet so Boston has depth, but uses the top and bottom 6 idea very well. They get great players who are role players for bottom 6 and spend money mostly on their top 6 and D. They don't overpay and have a good number of prospects because of deal like kessel(we have stastny) and a Gm that makes smart trades. We have a clever GM as well. The similarities are certainly there.

If you look at them over the past few years, they did have to put Savard on IR to afford to have the depth that they do as well as have rookies such a Seguin and Hamilton that one day will need quite a pay raise.

If you look at the 3 top 2 center system that the pens have, you will notice that their centers will never have the wingers that are on the same level as the centers they play with, I.E dupius(or however you spell it) and kunitz to play with crosby.

So would you take the penguins method and have Duchene play with players like Mcginn and Connoly who are not top 6 wingers and risk that we might not be getting all we can out of him, or trade stastny for some picks and prospects (or another Dman) like the kessel deal from Boston and use the cap to help even out the skill and make us more of a depth team.

The idea of the cap is that you can't have everything in essence. So how do you want the cap to be spent.

Right now we only have 2 top 6 wingers in Lando (who will get 5-6M eventually) and Mueller, who if he can stay healthy and put up top 6 numbers will get 4.

Also if seimens and elliot continue on pace they will both get 3-4.

This cap space the avs have will disappear quickly and is just an illusion of many of our core players being on rookie level contracts.

- Meeqsb


Why is Mueller going to get 4? He will do the same 2 year 2 mill a season contract. Its fair for both sides.

And why does Landy automatically get 5-6? Just because some teams handed out some bad out of entry level contract doesnt mean every player will now. They might compare him to Dustin Brown and his similar 3.5 contract. None of us really know how these negotiations/comparisons really work.

Seimens hasnt even stepped foot on NHL ice yet. Yeah sure he probably will get that if he pans out and develops, but you are worrying about this teams cap way way into the future.

Cap keeps on rising and who knows contracts might roll back with the new CBA, you just never know until after this summer.
Meeqsb
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Denver
Joined: 10.13.2011

Mar 5 @ 1:31 AM ET
I am not only talking about now and I have showed that.. If your team looks like..

Parise - Stastny - Jones

McGinn - Duchene - Mueller

Landeskog - O'Reilly - Downie

------ Jay McC --------

EJ - Suter

Do you think any goalie will get a contract like Depietro or Luongo again?

There is nothing wrong with letting your prospects play in the AHL and as young as the team is some of those guys could be on the team for 10 years or more. As well as the cap going up over those years for inflation.

Trust me I am taking into account.. Cap space, length of contracts, raises, Cap movement, and player's ages. As well as prospects..

Oh.. I am also taking into account. Winning with a good team, the fact that usually your home grown talent signs for cheaper than most of the UFA pay days, Signing wingers to compliment the center skill we have, and how much I actually think two high caliber UFA's cap hit's would be.. (No one has gotten an 8M cap hit I am pretty sure since the lock out as a UFA. Like I said even Kovalchuk's cap hit is 6.6M)

- Steve-B


There will be no more deals like Kovi's that cheat the cap (unless you want us to lose our 1st rounder to the league like the devs will this year.)

Varly will still get a 5 ish year deal worth 4.5-5M if he proves to be the real deal.

Also WHY ARE YOU THINKING ABOUT THE NOW AND NOT THE FUTURE! The avs aren't going to win the cup this or next year, so what good does it do to try and make us the best now instead of in a few years when we are ready for a cup run.

Lets take this team and look at the players once they get out of their rookie level deals. Also we can't plan them around having very low contracts as its unrealistic. Parise and Suter will be overpaid as there are no circumventing contracts anymore by adding in 4 years at the end being paid at league minimum.

Lets say 4 years from now or what ever:

Cap hit:

Parise(8 mil) - Stastny(4M) - Jones(2.5M) even though i dont think jones will still be here

McGinn(1.9M) - Duchene(5.5) - Mueller(4M) also Duchie will eventually get at least 6-6.5 at some point in his carrer such as a kane or toews deal

Landeskog(6M) - O'Reilly(4M) - Downie(2.75M) Raydar will at least get 5-6M at this pace.

Malone(1M) Jay McC(1.9M) Cody Mac(.9M)

EJ(5M-5.5M)- Suter(7.5M) EJ could possibly make 6M and Sutter will make a poop ton as UFA's do just like parise

Seimens(4M) Elliot(3.5M)

Obyrne(1.8M) Wilson(2M) Who knows who our 5-6 dman will be

Varly(4.5M)
Giggy(2.5) or any back up.

With that you get 73.25 and thats way over the cap. Its much harder to get rid of cap than it is to add it. You cant assume the cap ceiling will go up especially with teams like Nash and Pho ect having trouble making money, if anything it could also go down, who knows with the new CBA as well.

Also you cant run around and make a model that gives Mueller 2 mil and Varly 2.5. Its unrealistic.

It just doesn't work
Meeqsb
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Denver
Joined: 10.13.2011

Mar 5 @ 1:33 AM ET
in 2 years his contract is up and he can resign at a more reasonable cap hit.
- DDM-Coga


What makes you think another team wont pay him 6m a year? What makes you think he wouldn't want to go somewhere else where he can be the real #1
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Mar 5 @ 1:35 AM ET
What makes you think another team wont pay him 6m a year? What makes you think he wouldn't want to go somewhere else where he can be the real #1
- Meeqsb


Sometimes players like the city, the organization, and the direction of the team and willing to take a lesser role/money just to be apart of it all.
Meeqsb
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Denver
Joined: 10.13.2011

Mar 5 @ 1:36 AM ET
Why is Mueller going to get 4? He will do the same 2 year 2 mill a season contract. Its fair for both sides.

Seimens hasnt even stepped foot on NHL ice yet. Yeah sure he probably will get that if he pans out and develops, but you are worrying about this teams cap way way into the future.

Cap keeps on rising and who knows contracts might roll back with the new CBA, you just never know until after this summer.

- DDM-Coga


EVERYTHING I talk about is a few years out. The right now doesn't matter and is only to build to the point in the future where we can win the cup.

If Mueller can stay healthy and become a top 6 winger he will be paid like one.

This year and next year the avs wont win the cup so spending a lot of cap during that period would be foolish unless it translates well.

Every plan should be at least for the next 4 years if not in the avs case next 6. If not then you are just Buffalo and spending money cuz players are good.
Meeqsb
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Denver
Joined: 10.13.2011

Mar 5 @ 1:37 AM ET
Sometimes players like the city, the organization, and the direction of the team and willing to take a lesser role/money just to be apart of it all.
- DDM-Coga


Yes, but you shouldn't count on that. I am not saying it doesn't, but an extra 2M a year is quite a bit.
Meeqsb
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Denver
Joined: 10.13.2011

Mar 5 @ 1:39 AM ET
Why is Mueller going to get 4? He will do the same 2 year 2 mill a season contract. Its fair for both sides.

And why does Landy automatically get 5-6? Just because some teams handed out some bad out of entry level contract doesnt mean every player will now. They might compare him to Dustin Brown and his similar 3.5 contract. None of us really know how these negotiations/comparisons really work.

Seimens hasnt even stepped foot on NHL ice yet. Yeah sure he probably will get that if he pans out and develops, but you are worrying about this teams cap way way into the future.

Cap keeps on rising and who knows contracts might roll back with the new CBA, you just never know until after this summer.

- DDM-Coga


Also Lando is a MUCH better player than Brown. I think Lando is a very special player and become one of the best in the league as well as be one of the avs best players, if not THE BEST one they have.
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Mar 5 @ 1:39 AM ET
EVERYTHING I talk about is a few years out. The right now doesn't matter and is only to build to the point in the future where we can win the cup.

If Mueller can stay healthy and become a top 6 winger he will be paid like one.

This year and next year the avs wont win the cup so spending a lot of cap during that period would be foolish unless it translates well.

Every plan should be at least for the next 4 years if not in the avs case next 6. If not then you are just Buffalo and spending money cuz players are good.

- Meeqsb


you also have 15mill of cap space locked up to 2 players that probably are never going to happen, so a long argument about how cap management is key right now is kind of pointless. See where they sign in the summer then we can have this lecture again
Meeqsb
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Denver
Joined: 10.13.2011

Mar 5 @ 1:41 AM ET
This is another argument entirely..

In two years either Stastny's contract goes down by a couple million or he has respectable wingers and is back to a 70 point pace. Do you think he is going to walk if he is playing that good and winning with the guys on his wing?

- Steve-B


You can't have 3 centers that make 5m average and get stastny the wingers you are thinking of.

And how much do you think his contract goes down by. If he hit ufa, he will still get large offers.
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Mar 5 @ 1:42 AM ET
Also Lando is a MUCH better player than Brown. I think Lando is a very special player and become one of the best in the league as well as be one of the avs best players, if not THE BEST one they have.
- Meeqsb


im not doubting his abilities, hes a complete stud, but come on man its 3/4 of a season and you already have the cheque book out. You can wait till he is done another 2 years and then really assess his worth/contract. He isnt going away so dont worry
Meeqsb
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Denver
Joined: 10.13.2011

Mar 5 @ 1:43 AM ET
you also have 15mill of cap space locked up to 2 players that probably are never going to happen, so a long argument about how cap management is key right now is kind of pointless. See where they sign in the summer then we can have this lecture again
- DDM-Coga


Yes, if we take them out, then we are still fairly close to the cap ceiling but then we have some very big holes. As time goes on the avs will get better, and pay their core players well. We will hit a point where we need some depth or have a large hole in our roster that needs to be fixed and I think stastny will just be the one that ends up being shipped out.
Meeqsb
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Denver
Joined: 10.13.2011

Mar 5 @ 1:48 AM ET
im not doubting his abilities, hes a complete stud, but come on man its 3/4 of a season and you already have the cheque book out. You can wait till he is done another 2 years and then really assess his worth/contract. He isnt going away so dont worry
- DDM-Coga


He is a #2 overall pick and he has only gotten better. Historically its about as safe of a bet that you can make for a player in his position. I also haven't seen a player like him in the league in a very long time. This is still 2 more seasons out so it is a guess. He wont get 6 right away but if feel at some point in his career he absolutely will. His next contract will prolly be between 3.8-5.

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