How about a bottom pairing oft injured defenseman instead? And then doubling down and signing that defenseman to a 5 year contract.
- TobyFlenderson

Perfect example!

Perfect example!
- Schmojo

How about a bottom pairing oft injured defenseman instead? And then doubling down and signing that defenseman to a 5 year contract.
- TobyFlenderson

Rumor that Canes may buyout Jesperi Kotkaniemi. I would expect Briere to have interest if this happens. He will only be 24 this summer. They can offer him a top 9 role and can show how Poehling improved after being an underperformig 1st rd pick.
- Trox88

I would take a gamble despite him not panning out so far. nothing to lose. Though does a player like that want to come play for a coach like torts?

If the flyers cant land a #1 center or someone with legit #1 potential (dont think they can) then they need to stand pat. Do not overpay to acquire a 2nd/3rd line center then prop him up to be a top line.

Are you joking?

Pietrangelo 4th
Makar 4th
Hedman 2nd
Doughty 2nd
Exblad 1st
Heiskanen 3rd
Dahlin 1st
Q. Hughes 7th

And there are several top selections that are showing promise from the last few drafts.

There are fewer busts from top 10 defenseman than there are forwards.

Additionally, it’s understanding the makeup of a draft. This year has as many as 5 defenseman that are seen to have #1 upside. Whereas there’s only 3 centers who have potential #1 upside. The wings beyond Demidov are not spectacular either. Centers and defenseman are much more valuable than wingers. Then you look at 2025, a draft that is said to be deeper at center and thinner on defense. So you have a smaller chance at an elite defenseman next year. All this points to moving up this year to take a defenseman.
- Schmojo

Looking through NHL rosters, with some subjectivity of course. Of players that I consider a #1 or have been in their careers a #1 defenseman. 16 were drafted in the top 10 and 13 were drafted outside of the top 10

https://en.wikipedia.org/...elphia_Flyers_draft_picks

Looking through NHL rosters, with some subjectivity of course. Of players that I consider a #1 or have been in their careers a #1 defenseman. 16 were drafted in the top 10 and 13 were drafted outside of the top 10
- MJL

what rounds were the 13 drafted in?

I wondered about this the other day,


If we traded Elis contract to a playoff team would he suddenly be healthy enough to play?

I would take a gamble despite him not panning out so far. nothing to lose. Though does a player like that want to come play for a coach like torts?

If the flyers cant land a #1 center or someone with legit #1 potential (dont think they can) then they need to stand pat. Do not overpay to acquire a 2nd/3rd line center then prop him up to be a top line.
- hello it's me 2050

Agreed. If he’s bought out he will likely sign on a short “prove it” contract where he’ll get a chance to play. Low risk and worth a shot. Perhaps he would love playing for Torts. If he doesn’t mesh with Torts, he’ll get several nights off with pay 😀

I wondered about this the other day,


If we traded Elis contract to a playoff team would he suddenly be healthy enough to play?
- Flyerloon

Name checks out. So what do you believe, he is sidelined due to the flyers record? His injury is career ending.

Are you joking?

Pietrangelo 4th
Makar 4th
Hedman 2nd
Doughty 2nd
Exblad 1st
Heiskanen 3rd
Dahlin 1st
Q. Hughes 7th

And there are several top selections that are showing promise from the last few drafts.

There are fewer busts from top 10 defenseman than there are forwards.

Additionally, it’s understanding the makeup of a draft. This year has as many as 5 defenseman that are seen to have #1 upside. Whereas there’s only 3 centers who have potential #1 upside. The wings beyond Demidov are not spectacular either. Centers and defenseman are much more valuable than wingers. Then you look at 2025, a draft that is said to be deeper at center and thinner on defense. So you have a smaller chance at an elite defenseman next year. All this points to moving up this year to take a defenseman.
- Schmojo

Duncan Keith, Kris Letang, John Carlson, Chara, Lidstrom all taken outside of the top ten with only one taken in the back half of the 1st round. Thats 10 of the last 18 Stanley Cup winning teams had a #1 defenseman taken outside of the top 10 picks.

Than add Karlsson, Burns, Subban, Fox, Giordano, and Josi as Norris winners outside of the top 10. In fact only 4 of the last 20 Norris trophy winners were drafted in the top 10.

Only 9 of the 19 Norris trophy vote getters from last year were taken in the top 10. https://www.hockey-refere...023.html#all-norris-stats

The best rookie defense this year Faber was a 2nd round pick.



Draft defensemen in bulk and hope to get lucky or trade up for a Hanifin or worst Provorov.

If MM comes over for the upcoming season, the flyers should stay the course and look at it as an unforeseen benefit that may accelerate their path to contention, but they should not accelerate their plan to get there. Much to be seen yet on how he acclimates to the flyers and the NHL.
- funmaster18

They're already at the cap ceiling because of Ellis, Petersen, Johansen, Hayes and Angelo so there's not much room to accelerate.

I blame torts and briere.. haha

Good series and i was surprised that Van city took them to 7. Maybe with Boeser they win that game 7.. who knows. Sure seems like Tocc is doing a great job there and I am pulling for him to succeed.

Wonder if Edm can get past Dallas after that war. I feel like DAL have an advantage in goal and they've beaten two strong teams (I really thought COL would win that series) to get here and Oilers have had an easier path on paper. Should be a good one.. Really hoping the Panthers can take out the rangers.. That will be a war.
- Hextall271

Dallas just looks like and is playing like they are destined to be in the finals.

Dallas just looks like and is playing like they are destined to be in the finals.
- WhiskeyMan

Yes. I agree. The oilers haven’t shown to be world beaters this playoffs. If skinner doesn’t steal a couple games vs dal, the oilers are going to lose.

Mcdonagh back to Tampa. Wonder if this mean Myers wont be back.....

I wondered about this the other day,


If we traded Elis contract to a playoff team would he suddenly be healthy enough to play?
- Flyerloon

Seriously?

Seriously?

- MJL

Seems like a silly question I agree. But the same thing just happened with RyJo. Comes to a non-playoff team and all of a sudden he is too injured to play?

Seems like a silly question I agree. But the same thing just happened with RyJo. Comes to a non-playoff team and all of a sudden he is too injured to play?
- mickel25

they want to bank on the LTIR loop hole

Seems like a silly question I agree. But the same thing just happened with RyJo. Comes to a non-playoff team and all of a sudden he is too injured to play?
- mickel25

RyJo didn’t want to play on the phantoms.

Seems like a silly question I agree. But the same thing just happened with RyJo. Comes to a non-playoff team and all of a sudden he is too injured to play?
- mickel25

Is it the same thing? Ellis hasn't played in how long?

I think Johanssen didn't want to play in the AHL

Duncan Keith, Kris Letang, John Carlson, Chara, Lidstrom all taken outside of the top ten with only one taken in the back half of the 1st round. Thats 10 of the last 18 Stanley Cup winning teams had a #1 defenseman taken outside of the top 10 picks.

Than add Karlsson, Burns, Subban, Fox, Giordano, and Josi as Norris winners outside of the top 10. In fact only 4 of the last 20 Norris trophy winners were drafted in the top 10.

Only 9 of the 19 Norris trophy vote getters from last year were taken in the top 10. https://www.hockey-refere...023.html#all-norris-stats

The best rookie defense this year Faber was a 2nd round pick.



Draft defensemen in bulk and hope to get lucky or trade up for a Hanifin or worst Provorov.
- psuhockey

First of all, nobody is saying only draft defenseman in the top 10 and never outside the top 10. That would be ridiculous.
2nd, you need to understand probability.

So let’s take a look at this:

Every year there are 10 top 10 selections and over 200 outside the top 10.

Then let’s use MJL’s comment above (so you don’t think I’m cherry picking) that of current NHL players, there are 16 former top 10 picks that at some point in their career were #1 defenseman. There are 13 former picks outside the top 10 that at some point were #1 defensemen.

The oldest of this bunch is Brent Burns in 2003. And let’s also consider it takes usually a minimum of 3 years for a #1D to develop.

So, that gives us 18 drafts from 2003 to 2020.

Over that time there were 180 top 10 picks.
Over that time there were ~3,628 picks outside the top 10.

That means there were 16/180 picks that became #1 defensemen from the top 10. That means 9% of the top 10 picks became #1 D.

That also means, 13/3,628 picks became #1D outside the top 10. That’s 0.35% of those picks became #1D. Less than half of 1%.

9% > 0.35%

Now this isn’t perfect because with more time we’d narrow down to actual defenseman selections as significantly more forwards are taken in the top 10. But it still illustrates why selecting in the top 10 is so valuable.

First of all, nobody is saying only draft defenseman in the top 10 and never outside the top 10. That would be ridiculous.
2nd, you need to understand probability.

So let’s take a look at this:

Every year there are 10 top 10 selections and over 200 outside the top 10.

Then let’s use MJL’s comment above (so you don’t think I’m cherry picking) that of current NHL players, there are 16 former top 10 picks that at some point in their career were #1 defenseman. There are 13 former picks outside the top 10 that at some point were #1 defensemen.

The oldest of this bunch is Brent Burns in 2003. And let’s also consider it takes usually a minimum of 3 years for a #1D to develop.

So, that gives us 18 drafts from 2003 to 2020.

Over that time there were 180 top 10 picks.
Over that time there were ~3,628 picks outside the top 10.

That means there were 16/180 picks that became #1 defensemen from the top 10. That means 9% of the top 10 picks became #1 D.

That also means, 13/3,628 picks became #1D outside the top 10. That’s 0.35% of those picks became #1D. Less than half of 1%.

9% > 0.35%

Now this isn’t perfect because with more time we’d narrow down to actual defenseman selections as significantly more forwards are taken in the top 10. But it still illustrates why selecting in the top 10 is so valuable.
- Schmojo

I enjoy and learn from both of your postings. The argument you make here is one I tend to make all the time but let me clarify what I think psuhockey is saying and not saying.

psuhockey is not saying that we should count on getting the 1D from outside the top 10. Nor is he saying that the chances of getting the top 1D outside the top 10 is comparable to the chances of getting it within the top 10.

He is rather saying that the cost of trading up is not worth it. Lets look at it from the trade that was suggested: "TK +" for a high pick to draft a D (and presumably our 12th as well). "TK+" is likely worth a mid first (can be used to draft a D man) and say another tier b prospect (say it is a young D).

So here is another way of looking at the tradeoffs. Whcih one gets you a better chance of landing a 1D:

(a) a single pick likely say 3-7
(b) Pick 12, another mid first and young D prospect with potential upside.

To me, that answer is not clear.

I enjoy and learn from both of your postings. The argument you make here is one I tend to make all the time but let me clarify what I think psuhockey is saying and not saying.

psuhockey is not saying that we should count on getting the 1D from outside the top 10. Nor is he saying that the chances of getting the top 1D outside the top 10 is comparable to the chances of getting it within the top 10.

He is rather saying that the cost of trading up is not worth it. Lets look at it from the trade that was suggested: "TK +" for a high pick to draft a D (and presumably our 12th as well). "TK+" is likely worth a mid first (can be used to draft a D man) and say another tier b prospect (say it is a young D).

So here is another way of looking at the tradeoffs. Whcih one gets you a better chance of landing a 1D:

(a) a single pick likely say 3-7
(b) Pick 12, another mid first and young D prospect with potential upside.

To me, that answer is not clear.
- PT21

In my opinion, he absolutely is saying that they should count on getting a 1D outside of the top 10. He has repeatedly said that you can and using that as his reason on why they shouldn't trade up.