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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: The Good And Bad Of Nylander-Mania
Author Message
Nasty_Duck
Boston Bruins
Location: ON
Joined: 06.20.2012

Nov 21 @ 9:26 AM ET
“Currently leads the Leafs in scoring.”

It’s been 17 games.

You guys need to stop this madness.

I’d personally pay him no more than 9 million. And I wouldn’t even want to give him that much.

- Arctic_AARDVARK


Then get used to him playing on another team.

There's no way he's accepting 9M. Nor should he, based on what other players are getting.
Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Planet of the Leafs, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Nov 21 @ 9:28 AM ET
Then get used to him playing on another team.

There's no way he's accepting 9M. Nor should he, based on what other players are getting.

- Nasty_Duck


Or, to put in another way, you should get used to seeing him play for the Leafs.
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Space for Rent
Joined: 08.30.2006

Nov 21 @ 9:29 AM ET
Then get used to him playing on another team.

There's no way he's accepting 9M. Nor should he, based on what other players are getting.

- Nasty_Duck

that's exactly what he wants.
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Nov 21 @ 9:34 AM ET
So glad we traded lafferty for nothing.
- Fakepartofme


I'd rather have Lafferty - but he lost his job in camp to Gregor. They're similar. Having both over Reaves would be better - but new GM has made a few gaffes.

When comparing Gregor to Lafferty, please remember that Gregor has had to have David Kampf as his centre almost all year, save for about 10 minutes with Holmberg. Kampf is where offense goes to die. He's also averaging about 10 minutes per game compared to the 13 Lafferty gets - and Lafferty is centering Hoglund and Beauvillier for the most part, who are vastly better at offense than Reaves and Kampf.

I will throw these out there: Kampf's line has about the same DZone start as Lafferty's, and Lafferty, while a centre this year, has a 35% Faceoff percentage. I imagine a llama, slipping on its hooves and falling all over the place, spitting and so on - would still win about 25% of the draws, so that's pretty bad.

Ultimately, I don't think Sam Lafferty would have any better numbers - and they might be worse - if he had to play with Reaves and Kampf. Gregor does hit more and honestly seems a little more diverse in the roles he can fill (as in playing with Reaves & Kampf and honestly not looking like a liability like the other two).

But if you have Kampf with Lafferty and Gregor - you might be able to capture that Mikheyev & Engvall-lite combination due to their combined speed. Oh well.

Nasty_Duck
Boston Bruins
Location: ON
Joined: 06.20.2012

Nov 21 @ 9:35 AM ET
Or, to put in another way, you should get used to seeing him play for the Leafs.
- Zezel


I think the Leafs should try to keep him - he's a talented player.

Just don't see it happening for under 10M based on his play last year and this contract year.

But posters here for some reason don't think he deserves as much as a player like Barkov
Cush29
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Who Owzzzzz da' Chiefs?, ON
Joined: 12.22.2014

Nov 21 @ 9:40 AM ET
I think the Leafs should try to keep him - he's a talented player.

Just don't see it happening for under 10M based on his play last year and this contract year.

But posters here for some reason don't think he deserves as much as a player like Barkov

- Nasty_Duck


It's just one delusional poster who believes that.

Maybe he just wants the extra $ to go to Marner based on Mitch's unbelievable history of being the warrior and guy who gets it done in the playoffs......oh wait nevermind.

For the record I like both Willy and Mitch but the constant need to put one in a black cowboy hat and one in a white cowboy hat is insane. They both wear god dammed blue cowboy hats FFS!
Cush29
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Who Owzzzzz da' Chiefs?, ON
Joined: 12.22.2014

Nov 21 @ 9:42 AM ET
I'd rather have Lafferty - but he lost his job in camp to Gregor. They're similar. Having both over Reaves would be better - but new GM has made a few gaffes.

When comparing Gregor to Lafferty, please remember that Gregor has had to have David Kampf as his centre almost all year, save for about 10 minutes with Holmberg. Kampf is where offense goes to die. He's also averaging about 10 minutes per game compared to the 13 Lafferty gets - and Lafferty is centering Hoglund and Beauvillier for the most part, who are vastly better at offense than Reaves and Kampf.

I will throw these out there: Kampf's line has about the same DZone start as Lafferty's, and Lafferty, while a centre this year, has a 35% Faceoff percentage. I imagine a llama, slipping on its hooves and falling all over the place, spitting and so on - would still win about 25% of the draws, so that's pretty bad.

Ultimately, I don't think Sam Lafferty would have any better numbers - and they might be worse - if he had to play with Reaves and Kampf. Gregor does hit more and honestly seems a little more diverse in the roles he can fill (as in playing with Reaves & Kampf and honestly not looking like a liability like the other two).

But if you have Kampf with Lafferty and Gregor - you might be able to capture that Mikheyev & Engvall-lite combination due to their combined speed. Oh well.

- Monkeypunk


I found Lafferty underwhelming and for sure he has had more success this season so far than Gregor but I just have this feeling Gregor is starting to get comfortable and is going to really break out.

You are bang on re: linemates and I think Gregor has better speed and a better shot than Gregor.

Time will tell I guess, at least Gregor is cheaper! lol
GalacticStone
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: U Jealous of my Meteor
Joined: 01.29.2013

Nov 21 @ 9:47 AM ET
perimeter willi will be ice dancing in tempe for a packed barn of 5k👍

we will get crouse brown pukestad and a first👍🏿

- Skalapy

Red Light Willy gets paid $11m per for 8 years. Bank it.

Tree trades for a #2 RHD to pair up with Rielly. 👍

Kilnger goes to Robidas/Lupul/Clarkson Island and gets a nice tan. Then goes home to Sweden and eats disgusting canned fish.

Grim Reaver rides the pine until the playoffs. Assclown opponent runs Tavares into the boards, it looks bad, Tavares carried off the ice, Reaves explodes and beats down everyone on the ice. Drops the Stone Cold Stunner on the offender. Spends the rest of the night picking teeth fragments out of his knuckles with a toothpick. Earns his pay finally and teams stop taking runs at Leafs. ✊✊

Domi grows up and becomes the son his daddy always wanted. A Boston fan gets lippy with him and he goes Tie Domi Part Two Electric Boogaloo. He pulls the fan into the box and tops him. Boston fans are horrified as Domi makes one of their own his female dog. As a result, Boston fans quit acting retarded and show some respect to the Blue/White. ✊✊

Bertuzzi channels the power of pure unvaxxed super human. His lack of Pfizer libtard nanobots gives him the edge over vaxxed pantywaist sheep. Goes on a late season heater that carries over into the playoffs. He gets a Gordie Howe hat trick in each series on his way to the Cup. 👊👊

Matthews multiple hat tricks as he puts the team on his back and Conn Smythe's his way to the Cup. Let's his mustache grow wild and makes Lanny McDonald proud. Every woman in Ontario wants him inside her and every man in Canada wants to be him.

Tavares becomes the hero he always dreamed of. All those years of waking up in crusty Leafs pajamas comes to fruition. He scores the quintuple-overtime Cup winner. Islander fans have mass rage strokes as they watch elderly Tavares lead the parade.

Woll provides the stability in net the Leafs needed. He pitches two shutouts every series, scores a goal, and stick chops Marchand's head off. Boston goons are scared to retaliate because Reaver is giving them the crazy eyes from the bench.

Marner gets 1000 assists and his first pubic hair.

The Seventh Seal is broken. Dogs and cats live together. Vancouver fans burn down their city.

This is a screenplay waiting to be produced. Make it happen.
Symba007
Montreal Canadiens
Location: You are all perennial cynical sissies , ON
Joined: 02.26.2007

Nov 21 @ 9:52 AM ET
Red Light Willy gets paid $11m per for 8 years. Bank it.

Tree trades for a #2 RHD to pair up with Rielly. 👍

Kilnger goes to Robidas/Lupul/Clarkson Island and gets a nice tan. Then goes home to Sweden and eats disgusting canned fish.

Grim Reaver rides the pine until the playoffs. Assclown opponent runs Tavares into the boards, it looks bad, Tavares carried off the ice, Reaves explodes and beats down everyone on the ice. Drops the Stone Cold Stunner on the offender. Spends the rest of the night picking teeth fragments out of his knuckles with a toothpick. Earns his pay finally and teams stop taking runs at Leafs. ✊✊

Domi grows up and becomes the son his daddy always wanted. A Boston fan gets lippy with him and he goes Tie Domi Part Two Electric Boogaloo. He pulls the fan into the box and tops him. Boston fans are horrified as Domi makes one of their own his female dog. As a result, Boston fans quit acting retarded and show some respect to the Blue/White. ✊✊

Bertuzzi channels the power of pure unvaxxed super human. His lack of Pfizer libtard nanobots gives him the edge over vaxxed pantywaist sheep. Goes on a late season heater that carries over into the playoffs. He gets a Gordie Howe hat trick in each series on his way to the Cup. 👊👊

Matthews multiple hat tricks as he puts the team on his back and Conn Smythe's his way to the Cup. Let's his mustache grow wild and makes Lanny McDonald proud. Every woman in Ontario wants him inside her and every man in Canada wants to be him.

Tavares becomes the hero he always dreamed of. All those years of waking up in crusty Leafs pajamas comes to fruition. He scores the quintuple-overtime Cup winner. Islander fans have mass rage strokes as they watch elderly Tavares lead the parade.

Woll provides the stability in net the Leafs needed. He pitches two shutouts every series, scores a goal, and stick chops Marchand's head off. Boston goons are scared to retaliate because Reaver is giving them the crazy eyes from the bench.

Marner gets 1000 assists and his first pubic hair.

The Seventh Seal is broken. Dogs and cats live together. Vancouver fans burn down their city.

This is a screenplay waiting to be produced. Make it happen.

- GalacticStone

Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Nov 21 @ 9:53 AM ET

- Symba007



GalacticStone
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: U Jealous of my Meteor
Joined: 01.29.2013

Nov 21 @ 9:56 AM ET

- Symba007

U just jealous of my meteor.
Cush29
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Who Owzzzzz da' Chiefs?, ON
Joined: 12.22.2014

Nov 21 @ 9:59 AM ET
Red Light Willy gets paid $11m per for 8 years. Bank it.

Tree trades for a #2 RHD to pair up with Rielly. 👍

Kilnger goes to Robidas/Lupul/Clarkson Island and gets a nice tan. Then goes home to Sweden and eats disgusting canned fish.

Grim Reaver rides the pine until the playoffs. Assclown opponent runs Tavares into the boards, it looks bad, Tavares carried off the ice, Reaves explodes and beats down everyone on the ice. Drops the Stone Cold Stunner on the offender. Spends the rest of the night picking teeth fragments out of his knuckles with a toothpick. Earns his pay finally and teams stop taking runs at Leafs. ✊✊

Domi grows up and becomes the son his daddy always wanted. A Boston fan gets lippy with him and he goes Tie Domi Part Two Electric Boogaloo. He pulls the fan into the box and tops him. Boston fans are horrified as Domi makes one of their own his female dog. As a result, Boston fans quit acting retarded and show some respect to the Blue/White. ✊✊

Bertuzzi channels the power of pure unvaxxed super human. His lack of Pfizer libtard nanobots gives him the edge over vaxxed pantywaist sheep. Goes on a late season heater that carries over into the playoffs. He gets a Gordie Howe hat trick in each series on his way to the Cup. 👊👊

Matthews multiple hat tricks as he puts the team on his back and Conn Smythe's his way to the Cup. Let's his mustache grow wild and makes Lanny McDonald proud. Every woman in Ontario wants him inside her and every man in Canada wants to be him.

Tavares becomes the hero he always dreamed of. All those years of waking up in crusty Leafs pajamas comes to fruition. He scores the quintuple-overtime Cup winner. Islander fans have mass rage strokes as they watch elderly Tavares lead the parade.

Woll provides the stability in net the Leafs needed. He pitches two shutouts every series, scores a goal, and stick chops Marchand's head off. Boston goons are scared to retaliate because Reaver is giving them the crazy eyes from the bench.

Marner gets 1000 assists and his first pubic hair.

The Seventh Seal is broken. Dogs and cats live together. Vancouver fans burn down their city.

This is a screenplay waiting to be produced. Make it happen.

- GalacticStone


Are you and Sklappy long lost brothers?
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: “Give me Point, Cirelli and Paul all day against anybody.” Mr. Cooper , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Nov 21 @ 10:02 AM ET
Red Light Willy gets paid $11m per for 8 years. Bank it.

Tree trades for a #2 RHD to pair up with Rielly. 👍

Kilnger goes to Robidas/Lupul/Clarkson Island and gets a nice tan. Then goes home to Sweden and eats disgusting canned fish.

Grim Reaver rides the pine until the playoffs. Assclown opponent runs Tavares into the boards, it looks bad, Tavares carried off the ice, Reaves explodes and beats down everyone on the ice. Drops the Stone Cold Stunner on the offender. Spends the rest of the night picking teeth fragments out of his knuckles with a toothpick. Earns his pay finally and teams stop taking runs at Leafs. ✊✊

Domi grows up and becomes the son his daddy always wanted. A Boston fan gets lippy with him and he goes Tie Domi Part Two Electric Boogaloo. He pulls the fan into the box and tops him. Boston fans are horrified as Domi makes one of their own his female dog. As a result, Boston fans quit acting retarded and show some respect to the Blue/White. ✊✊

Bertuzzi channels the power of pure unvaxxed super human. His lack of Pfizer libtard nanobots gives him the edge over vaxxed pantywaist sheep. Goes on a late season heater that carries over into the playoffs. He gets a Gordie Howe hat trick in each series on his way to the Cup. 👊👊

Matthews multiple hat tricks as he puts the team on his back and Conn Smythe's his way to the Cup. Let's his mustache grow wild and makes Lanny McDonald proud. Every woman in Ontario wants him inside her and every man in Canada wants to be him.

Tavares becomes the hero he always dreamed of. All those years of waking up in crusty Leafs pajamas comes to fruition. He scores the quintuple-overtime Cup winner. Islander fans have mass rage strokes as they watch elderly Tavares lead the parade.

Woll provides the stability in net the Leafs needed. He pitches two shutouts every series, scores a goal, and stick chops Marchand's head off. Boston goons are scared to retaliate because Reaver is giving them the crazy eyes from the bench.

Marner gets 1000 assists and his first pubic hair.

The Seventh Seal is broken. Dogs and cats live together. Vancouver fans burn down their city.

This is a screenplay waiting to be produced. Make it happen.

- GalacticStone


I hope it hurt as much writing that as it did skimming over it.

Edit

Nice alliteration
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Nov 21 @ 10:11 AM ET
It's just one delusional poster who believes that.

Maybe he just wants the extra $ to go to Marner based on Mitch's unbelievable history of being the warrior and guy who gets it done in the playoffs......oh wait nevermind.

For the record I like both Willy and Mitch but the constant need to put one in a black cowboy hat and one in a white cowboy hat is insane. They both wear god dammed blue cowboy hats FFS!

- Cush29


It's tough to figure. Using a suggestion from The Law - looking at only guys who have UFA contracts, and then comparing to guys who have had 35 goal+ or 90 point+ seasons over the past 4 years, you have a limited number of comparisons out there (using $87.5m as your cap ceiling):

Nathan MacKinnon has a cap% of 15.3% which projects to $13.39m
Auston Matthews has a cap% of 14.6% which projects to $12.78m
David Pastrnak has a cap% of 13.6% which projects to $11.9m
Johnny Gaudreau has a cap% of 11.8% which projects to $10.33m
Alex Ovechkin has a cap% of 11.66% which projects to $10.2m
Steven Stamkos has a cap% of 11.6% which projects to $10.15m
Mika Zibanejad has a cap% of 10.43% which projects to $9.13m
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has a cap% of 6.3% which projects to $5.51m

Let's face it - RNH is a good hockey player, but his numbers were grossly inflated by playing with McDavid and soaking up PP points on the best power play in NHL history (57th in 5v5 points last year, but 3rd in PP points). So his value per point is insane, but his value is not representative of his statistics.

Your lowest end comparison is Zibanejad. The realistic line is probably between Gaudreau and Pastrnak - so somewhere between $9.6m and $10.5m is probably where his next contract lands.
drexel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Corn Pop was a bad dude, AB
Joined: 06.29.2006

Nov 21 @ 10:17 AM ET
It's tough to figure. Using a suggestion from The Law - looking at only guys who have UFA contracts, and then comparing to guys who have had 35 goal+ or 90 point+ seasons over the past 4 years, you have a limited number of comparisons out there (using $87.5m as your cap ceiling):

Nathan MacKinnon has a cap% of 15.3% which projects to $13.39m
Auston Matthews has a cap% of 14.6% which projects to $12.78m
David Pastrnak has a cap% of 13.6% which projects to $11.9m
Johnny Gaudreau has a cap% of 11.8% which projects to $10.33m
Alex Ovechkin has a cap% of 11.66% which projects to $10.2m
Steven Stamkos has a cap% of 11.6% which projects to $10.15m
Mika Zibanejad has a cap% of 10.43% which projects to $9.13m
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has a cap% of 6.3% which projects to $5.51m

Let's face it - RNH is a good hockey player, but his numbers were grossly inflated by playing with McDavid and soaking up PP points on the best power play in NHL history (57th in 5v5 points last year, but 3rd in PP points). So his value per point is insane, but his value is not representative of his statistics.

Your lowest end comparison is Zibanejad. The realistic line is probably between Gaudreau and Pastrnak - so somewhere between $9.6m and $10.5m is probably where his next contract lands.

- Monkeypunk

he'll be closer to Pastranak than Gaudreau. easily
GalacticStone
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: U Jealous of my Meteor
Joined: 01.29.2013

Nov 21 @ 10:19 AM ET
I hope it hurt as much writing that as it did skimming over it.

Edit

Nice alliteration

- Canada Cup

Don't skim it. Take it all in. It is prophecy.

So let it be written, so let it be done.

drexel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Corn Pop was a bad dude, AB
Joined: 06.29.2006

Nov 21 @ 10:24 AM ET
Don't skim it. Take it all in. It is prophecy.

So let it be written, so let it be done.

- GalacticStone

Klingbergs hips are creeping death
Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Nov 21 @ 10:26 AM ET
he'll be closer to Pastranak than Gaudreau. easily
- drexel


Crazy how quickly the conversation about him went for "no way he'll get 10" to "I hope he accepts a little less than 11".
Adam French
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Isn't Cooley 5"11? You know who else is 5"11? Sydney Crosby. - Scabeh
Joined: 04.06.2011

Nov 21 @ 10:27 AM ET
I think the Leafs should try to keep him - he's a talented player.

Just don't see it happening for under 10M based on his play last year and this contract year.

But posters here for some reason don't think he deserves as much as a player like Barkov

- Nasty_Duck

He doesn't. Barkov is a Selke level #1 centre who puts up 80-90 points. Willy has two seasons as good as Barkov normally is offensively and this season is just insanity.
GalacticStone
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: U Jealous of my Meteor
Joined: 01.29.2013

Nov 21 @ 10:28 AM ET
Klingbergs hips are creeping death
- drexel

Max Domi is the first born son.
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Nov 21 @ 10:35 AM ET
he'll be closer to Pastranak than Gaudreau. easily
- drexel




Tough call in all honesty - Gaudreau has scored over 30 twice in his career, and 40 goals once. His career highs in points were 115 and 99.

Pastrnak has scored over 30 three times, over 40 twice, and over 60 once. His career highs in points were 113 and 95.

Nylander has scored over 30 once, over 40 once and his career highs in points have been 87 and 80. If he cools down from his current 58 goal / 130 point pace (which very likely will happen - I'd suggest to around 45 goals / 100 points optimistically), his career bests line up more closely with Gaudreau than Pastrnak.

Obviously we'll see where he's at at the end of the year. Who knows? If it's the year of Willy and he gets an f'n Conn Smythe and the works, then the guy can write his own ticket. But he's always been better than many Leaf fans want to give him credit for.



Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Nov 21 @ 10:42 AM ET
He doesn't. Barkov is a Selke level #1 centre who puts up 80-90 points. Willy has two seasons as good as Barkov normally is offensively and this season is just insanity.
- AdamFrench


The challenge here - to me - is that points are quantifiable whereas Selke level candidacy is non-specific. How Selkeish is he? When determining a player's contractual value agents and GMs know what a guy brings, but when you can't quantify it, it's a more ambiguous price tag. Couple that with Barkov's contract being 2 years old, but Barkov having not played a full season since before COVID hit, and his best season being 2 years prior to COVID, and you wonder if at - just 28 - Barkov's best years are already in the past.

I would like nothing more than to find the ways to contain Nylander's contract at a Leaf-friendly price that is agreeable to Nylander as well, but based on measureable stats and comparisons - he is going to get paid - and likely close to Barkov (his 12.27% would equate to $10.7m in project cap $).
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Nov 21 @ 10:43 AM ET
I think the Leafs should try to keep him - he's a talented player.

Just don't see it happening for under 10M based on his play last year and this contract year.

But posters here for some reason don't think he deserves as much as a player like Barkov

- Nasty_Duck

He'll get 10m

But anything over 11 is too much imo. However, im not the one paying the bills.
Nasty_Duck
Boston Bruins
Location: ON
Joined: 06.20.2012

Nov 21 @ 11:08 AM ET
He doesn't. Barkov is a Selke level #1 centre who puts up 80-90 points. Willy has two seasons as good as Barkov normally is offensively and this season is just insanity.
- AdamFrench


Barkov can't seem to play a full season these days, and his deal was signed two years ago.

You can make the argument WN is not as good a player, but...

With the Cap going up since Barkov signed, and even more by next season, 10M for WN contract would be a fair deal due to... inflation.
Dozzer
Referee
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow since I’m way up high
Joined: 09.15.2010

Nov 21 @ 11:13 AM ET
Barkov can't seem to play a full season these days, and his deal was signed two years ago.

You can make the argument WN is not as good a player, but...

With the Cap going up since Barkov signed, and even more by next season, 10M for WN contract would be a fair deal due to... inflation.

- Nasty_Duck


Not to mention if he signs with term what his cap hit will look like by the end of the contract. $10 mill for 8 years for instance wouldn’t even be 10% of the cap by the mid point of the contract let alone it’s end now that the cap is finally about to start rising again. Contract values are determined for the duration of the contract not just the current season.
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