[quote=fattybeef]They won't be picking in the top 5 though. If you take into account the loss of goals by Domi, Toews and Kane (like 48 but well round to 50).

Assume the rest of the roster is about the same. Maybe you get +6 out of Johnson (assuming healthy full year so 18 total), Probably a net +10 for Perry for whoever he replaces, +25 out of Hall, + 20 out of Reichel (so like 25-30 this season) and +30 for Bedard...

That puts them in about the top 20 for goals for. They'll probably let in fewer goals if only because of addition by subtraction in some instances.

So while they're bad. They won't be as bad as Philly, Arizona, Nashville or San Jose. The Jets have some decisions to make and could be a lottery team. Detroit and Montreal are probably still valid competition for that bottom 5 spot.

Very optimistic take on the upcoming season.

The first 20 games are 11 road games PIT, BOS, MTL, TOR, COL, VGK, ARI, TBL, FLA, NSH, CBJ.

And 9 home games VGK, BOS, FLA, NJD, TBL, BUF, TOR, STL, SEA.

What do you anticipate their record after 20 games?
- stevefrmglencoe

0-0-20

They won't be picking in the top 5 though. If you take into account the loss of goals by Domi, Toews and Kane (like 48 but well round to 50).

Assume the rest of the roster is about the same. Maybe you get +6 out of Johnson (assuming healthy full year so 18 total), Probably a net +10 for Perry for whoever he replaces, +25 out of Hall, + 20 out of Reichel (so like 25-30 this season) and +30 for Bedard...

That puts them in about the top 20 for goals for. They'll probably let in fewer goals if only because of addition by subtraction in some instances.

So while they're bad. They won't be as bad as Philly, Arizona, Nashville or San Jose. The Jets have some decisions to make and could be a lottery team. Detroit and Montreal are probably still valid competition for that bottom 5 spot.

If Bedard "meets" expectations they're probably 5-7 from the bottom. If he vastly exceeds them they could be in the 10 range. Even if K2 can't defend if he puts up 40-50 points like Fox or Makar did then it tips the scales even more.

Are they going to beat better teams? Probably not consistently.

Are they going to beat the teams that are about equal to them roster wise or a little worse consistently? Pretty good chance. They'll be bad but not the worst of the bunch like this year.

Unless there are significant injuries - assuming that this team will get a top 3 pick next year is a pretty big gamble.

Mrazek can only start so many games. Soderblom may be serviceable next year. So that may be the X factor there in terms of just losing games 5-3 or 6-4 or whatever.
- fattybeef

And that's okay, by what the analysts say Nazar who was drafted 13th has talented tools that the top 5 prospects have in the league? Reichel drafted 17th i think looks very promising? You have to trust your scouting department. One thing for sure KD is not afraid of trading up if he sees a guy he wants. When i look back from 2015 to 2020 really good players fell in the 1st round to teams that can identify talent very well.

There's no rush, no shortcuts, even if they draft later in the 1st round.

If, a really big if, they can identify talent, KD and Co will create a very deep talent pool in the system because they are drafting more at the top half of the draft as opposed to the bottom.

[quote=fattybeef]They won't be picking in the top 5 though. If you take into account the loss of goals by Domi, Toews and Kane (like 48 but well round to 50).

Assume the rest of the roster is about the same. Maybe you get +6 out of Johnson (assuming healthy full year so 18 total), Probably a net +10 for Perry for whoever he replaces, +25 out of Hall, + 20 out of Reichel (so like 25-30 this season) and +30 for Bedard...

That puts them in about the top 20 for goals for. They'll probably let in fewer goals if only because of addition by subtraction in some instances.

So while they're bad. They won't be as bad as Philly, Arizona, Nashville or San Jose. The Jets have some decisions to make and could be a lottery team. Detroit and Montreal are probably still valid competition for that bottom 5 spot.

Very optimistic take on the upcoming season.

The first 20 games are 11 road games PIT, BOS, MTL, TOR, COL, VGK, ARI, TBL, FLA, NSH, CBJ.

And 9 home games VGK, BOS, FLA, NJD, TBL, BUF, TOR, STL, SEA.

What do you anticipate their record after 20 games?
- stevefrmglencoe

PIT (loss), BOS (tie), MTL (win), TOR (blow out loss), COL (loss), VGK (loss), ARI (win), TBL (win), FLA (tie), NSH (win), CBJ (tie)

VGK (loss), BOS (win), FLA (loss), NJD (win if NJ doesn't have a decent goalie), TBL (tie), BUF (win), TOR (tie), STL (win), SEA (loss).

So 17-22ish points depending on how the gimmicks break the first 20 games. Should pace them for a 75 point season.

I see them more in the 22-26 slot then id do 28-32. I also think Bedard is going to be the first rookie since Ovi to bang in 50 power play points but at the end of the day what the hell do I know.

But if the goaltending is utterly horrific instead of last years status quo of pretty bad, it'll move them a bit further down than what I'm predicting now. Maybe more like 65 than 75 points and that probably keeps them in the top 5.

Richardson will have actual weapons and he's shown that he can get guys to play hard. A bit more mobility and hunger on the blue line and healthy hockey players (obviously Toews struggled but Kane was def not 100% last year) at forward could make them just mediocre enough to pick in that 10ish range.

Good players are to be had there but percentages go down. Even with Moore and Nazar you see they have some flaws that they may or may not be able to overcome to be more than contributers. I think Bill even has them out of the top 4 on lines as picking 5th and there are a lot of mediocre orgs between that 6 and 12 draft slot.

One guy doesn't make a team.

0-0-20
- DarthKane

That would be a better start than two years ago.

I don't anticipate Taylor Hall as a tarde deadline guy.

They have 5ti now find contributors and if HE IS ONE, the tactic of playoff deadline trade isn't going to apply to him or any players on their roster b/c they don't have super valuable depth player sion the line-up that bring first rounders.

And that Mzazek for a first was, imo, a lucky once in a lifetime get b/cof the playoff drought in Toronto and the way they needed that Cap.
I doubt anyone is coughing up more first rounders to us, u kiss say the Tampa Bay 2024 first rounder is going to some desperate team fro a non restricted pick that is for sure lower in an upcoming year.

The GMs know KFC was the luckiest GM getting the kid and I think one is gonna go out of their way to make a deal to make Chicago better unless they can best him.

We are going see what he can do w/o luck now.

And that's okay, by what the analysts say Nazar who was drafted 13th has talented tools that the top 5 prospects have in the league? Reichel drafted 17th i think looks very promising? You have to trust your scouting department. One thing for sure KD is not afraid of trading up if he sees a guy he wants. When i look back from 2015 to 2020 really good players fell in the 1st round to teams that can identify talent very well.

There's no rush, no shortcuts, even if they draft later in the 1st round.

If, a really big if, they can identify talent, KD and Co will create a very deep talent pool in the system because they are drafting more at the top half of the draft as opposed to the bottom.
- BetweenTheDots

Its not a short cut. My point is you can avoid the if - flip two first round picks now for a sure thing in Elias Pettersson (or similar player who probably isn't going to resign) or maybe one first in like 2025 and some middle round pick for a Pinto type player from a team that is cap strapped and you are one and two up the middle done.

The only other option is you hope the goaltending is so abhorrently bad this year you get another first or maybe second then you try to pry ze German out of Edmonton when they end up crapping the bed.

And that's okay, by what the analysts say Nazar who was drafted 13th has talented tools that the top 5 prospects have in the league? Reichel drafted 17th i think looks very promising? You have to trust your scouting department. One thing for sure KD is not afraid of trading up if he sees a guy he wants. When i look back from 2015 to 2020 really good players fell in the 1st round to teams that can identify talent very well.

There's no rush, no shortcuts, even if they draft later in the 1st round.

If, a really big if, they can identify talent, KD and Co will create a very deep talent pool in the system because they are drafting more at the top half of the draft as opposed to the bottom.
- BetweenTheDots

Its not a short cut. My point is you can avoid the if - flip two first round picks now for a sure thing in Elias Pettersson (or similar player who probably isn't going to resign) or maybe one first in like 2025 and some middle round pick for a Pinto type player from a team that is cap strapped and you are one and two up the middle done.

The only other option is you hope the goaltending is so abhorrently bad this year you get another first or maybe second then you try to pry ze German out of Edmonton when they end up crapping the bed.
- fattybeef

Each draft class is so different after it is selected, evaluated/categorized eg, "mid lineup" and if I can use the Hockey News 2021 Prospects issue to show how an couple pairs of miscalculated drafts where teams didn't get so many players projected in 70s-80's who last season proved a whole lot better NHLers than the names plastering the earlier slots., They give high praise to a lot of guys who simply aren't relevant NHLers.When you see the 100 ranks of the best futures, and you don't anywhere close in their expert's ranking thoughts.
The list is not only suspect, but so are the team expert's ranks.

So some drafts yield less studs early and many later.

Its not a short cut. My point is you can avoid the if - flip two first round picks now for a sure thing in Elias Pettersson (or similar player who probably isn't going to resign) or maybe one first in like 2025 and some middle round pick for a Pinto type player from a team that is cap strapped and you are one and two up the middle done.

The only other option is you hope the goaltending is so abhorrently bad this year you get another first or maybe second then you try to pry ze German out of Edmonton when they end up crapping the bed.
- fattybeef

I tend to agree. The Hawks already have too many D prospects. Again, not inherently a bad problem to have, but you don't have space to play all of them (they aren't trading Seth at this point, and I really don't think they are moving Murphy either). After the last two years of drafting the Hawks have well restocked the farm with above average forwards (as rated by most publications). Combine that with numerous 1st and 2nd round picks in the next three drafts, I think it would behoove (that's right, I used it) KD to start building an up and coming team around Bedard, KK and the like so that they are in a position to start succeeding sooner rather than later.

This doesn't mean he can't still make deals taking on a bad contract for high end assets, but you can't just remain in asset allocation mode for 3-4 years. Especially with the perceived talent already collected, I think they need to put some of the pieces in place to achieve success. Moves precisely like the ones Fatty describes above.

This is a big part of why I hope the Hawks can make it to that "bubble" level of the standings. Excitement aside, I think it gives all of the players something to fight for together.

I don't anticipate Taylor Hall as a tarde deadline guy.

They have 5ti now find contributors and if HE IS ONE, the tactic of playoff deadline trade isn't going to apply to him or any players on their roster b/c they don't have super valuable depth player sion the line-up that bring first rounders.

And that Mzazek for a first was, imo, a lucky once in a lifetime get b/cof the playoff drought in Toronto and the way they needed that Cap.
I doubt anyone is coughing up more first rounders to us, u kiss say the Tampa Bay 2024 first rounder is going to some desperate team fro a non restricted pick that is for sure lower in an upcoming year.

The GMs know KFC was the luckiest GM getting the kid and I think one is gonna go out of their way to make a deal to make Chicago better unless they can best him.

We are going see what he can do w/o luck now.
- wiz1901

Last season was all about the tear down, but I don't think that's as much the case now. I could see some guys going at the TDL, but its not a guarantee. Tyler Johnson, if healthy, would be at the top of the list of trade targets. He has the playoff experience teams need and can play any forward position. D!ckinson could yield a positive return, he's another versatile forward and his cap hit is low at $2.65 million, at 50% retained that's a very good deal. I don't see any of the defense going, the players worth trading for are locked up long term and the pending UFAs aren't worth the price, even for the infamous "future considerations".

Last season was all about the tear down, but I don't think that's as much the case now. I could see some guys going at the TDL, but its not a guarantee. Tyler Johnson, if healthy, would be at the top of the list of trade targets. He has the playoff experience teams need and can play any forward position. D!ckinson could yield a positive return, he's another versatile forward and his cap hit is low at $2.65 million, at 50% retained that's a very good deal. I don't see any of the defense going, the players worth trading for are locked up long term and the pending UFAs aren't worth the price, even for the infamous "future considerations".
- DarthKane

Yeah, it’s kind of funny. KD overpaid a bit on Foligno and Perry, and by doing so likely made them harder to move at the TDL even with 50% retained. We’ll see. There are always injuries to consider and who knows how the players on this team even shake out.

It is Max Domi day! #13. With a shout out to the Car Bomb.

Yeah, it’s kind of funny. KD overpaid a bit on Foligno and Perry, and by doing so likely made them harder to move at the TDL even with 50% retained. We’ll see. There are always injuries to consider and who knows how the players on this team even shake out.
- Chunk

The Hawks have only 2 spots remaining for salary retention. Johnson and D!ckinson are likely candidates, maybe a team is willing to take on Perry for $2 million, or less if there's a 3rd team. But for the likes of Foligno and Perry I don't think there is enough value to trade them.

It is Max Domi day! #13. With a shout out to the Car Bomb.
- bjphawkfan

Tomas Jurco day!

Its not a short cut. My point is you can avoid the if - flip two first round picks now for a sure thing in Elias Pettersson (or similar player who probably isn't going to resign) or maybe one first in like 2025 and some middle round pick for a Pinto type player from a team that is cap strapped and you are one and two up the middle done.

The only other option is you hope the goaltending is so abhorrently bad this year you get another first or maybe second then you try to pry ze German out of Edmonton when they end up crapping the bed.
- fattybeef

Again i feel that there is no hurry. Yes we got Bedard, we have possibly 3 top 6 forwards in the system. Possibly a top 4 dman in KK. We also need depth, most teams win a cup because most have the core but the winners have more depth than their opponents. Why the Oilers, Toronto and other teams have come up short. I just agree to disagree. If i were GM i would continue down this path for a couple of more years.

Again i feel that there is no hurry. Yes we got Bedard, we have possibly 3 top 6 forwards in the system. Possibly a top 4 dman in KK. We also need depth, most teams win a cup because most have the core but the winners have more depth than their opponents. Why the Oilers, Toronto and other teams have come up short. I just agree to disagree. If i were GM i would continue down this path for a couple of more years.
- BetweenTheDots

What precisely is the path you are talking about, and how long until you expect to see the team compete and win (meaning at least making the playoffs).?

Yeah, it’s kind of funny. KD overpaid a bit on Foligno and Perry, and by doing so likely made them harder to move at the TDL even with 50% retained. We’ll see. There are always injuries to consider and who knows how the players on this team even shake out.
- Chunk

That was the only way they could get those two, by overpaying. LR though Perry was invaluable in Montreal when it came to teaching the younger players in their system. I would guess that Foligno is here to provide the same type of role. Perry was taking cheap contracts to play for Cups prior to this contract. That opportunity was probably there somewhere again if he wanted it.

Given that there are only two retention slots, I agree that we're probably talking Tyler Johnson (assuming he's healthy, of course) and D*ckinson getting them. I could see Tampa taking Tyler Johnson back for their playoff run at half retained, because there's familiarity there, unless their cap hell persists at the deadline.

Its not a short cut. My point is you can avoid the if - flip two first round picks now for a sure thing in Elias Pettersson (or similar player who probably isn't going to resign) or maybe one first in like 2025 and some middle round pick for a Pinto type player from a team that is cap strapped and you are one and two up the middle done.

The only other option is you hope the goaltending is so abhorrently bad this year you get another first or maybe second then you try to pry ze German out of Edmonton when they end up crapping the bed.
- fattybeef

Do you really think Vancouver is moving Pettersson, a big, young, smooth skating centerman who can score for two firsts? Vancouver would want those two firsts plus.

I agree with Dots, there’s time to build the team without resorting to high risk moves.

That was the only way they could get those two, by overpaying. LR though Perry was invaluable in Montreal when it came to teaching the younger players in their system. I would guess that Foligno is here to provide the same type of role. Perry was taking cheap contracts to play for Cups prior to this contract. That opportunity was probably there somewhere again if he wanted it.

Given that there are only two retention slots, I agree that we're probably talking Tyler Johnson (assuming he's healthy, of course) and D*ckinson getting them. I could see Tampa taking Tyler Johnson back for their playoff run at half retained, because there's familiarity there, unless their cap hell persists at the deadline.
- 333inthe3rd

Not debating that at all. I completely agree. I was more just pointing out that the fact they were signed for that much might make it less likely they get moved.

Do you really think Vancouver is moving Pettersson, a big, young, smooth skating centerman who can score for two firsts? Vancouver would want those two firsts plus.

I agree with Dots, there’s time to build the team without resorting to high risk moves.
- paulr

It doesn’t have to be Pettersson. Just take advantage of the excesses they have. They aren’t going to have all of these picks/prospects play on the team. If there is an opportunity to acquire a high end player, I don’t think you can just ignore it because they want to build through the draft.

Obviously, you have to be be reasonable, but they’ve added 10 first and second rounders in the last two years and have crap tons more in the next three years. If an opportunity exists to obtain a guy like Pettersson for a pair of first rounders… he’ll yeah I’m thinking long and hard about that. That’s proven NHL talent.

Last season was all about the tear down, but I don't think that's as much the case now. I could see some guys going at the TDL, but its not a guarantee. Tyler Johnson, if healthy, would be at the top of the list of trade targets. He has the playoff experience teams need and can play any forward position. D!ckinson could yield a positive return, he's another versatile forward and his cap hit is low at $2.65 million, at 50% retained that's a very good deal. I don't see any of the defense going, the players worth trading for are locked up long term and the pending UFAs aren't worth the price, even for the infamous "future considerations".
- DarthKane

Future considerations = TOBE (pronounced Toby).
Which is not Toby Harrah, a retired baseball player

To be determined later

Tomas Jurco day!
- DarthKane

Where's the Jurco Meme???

Do you really think Vancouver is moving Pettersson, a big, young, smooth skating centerman who can score for two firsts? Vancouver would want those two firsts plus.

I agree with Dots, there’s time to build the team without resorting to high risk moves.
- paulr

Me, too.

This will certainly ruin his (frank)ing day, eh?

Tomas Jurco day!
- DarthKane

I can see that your humor runs dark.

Yeah, it’s kind of funny. KD overpaid a bit on Foligno and Perry, and by doing so likely made them harder to move at the TDL even with 50% retained. We’ll see. There are always injuries to consider and who knows how the players on this team even shake out.
- Chunk

They may want those guys around the whole year and that could be part of them getting that money at this stage. Hey we'll make it worth your while to help with the kids for the whole year kind of thing.

Do you really think Vancouver is moving Pettersson, a big, young, smooth skating centerman who can score for two firsts? Vancouver would want those two firsts plus.

I agree with Dots, there’s time to build the team without resorting to high risk moves.
- paulr

That isn't high risk. He's a UFA after the deal is up (in one year) so he can just walk. And does he really want to resign there where it's kind of a poop show of an org or does he want to get paid but also have a chance to win?

If they aren't able to get a deal done Vancouver may flip him for what they can at the TDL like they did with Horvat.