I don't have Matthews in the same tier as McDavid, etc who make 14+% of the team cap hit (or Draisaitl who should make that much). To me he's at most a 12-13% guy...on the same level as a Barkov, Tkachuk, Rantanen, etc.

My "moneypuck" approach to this sort of question is based on an approximation of how impactful the player could be on a low-end team without his existing supporting cast - i.e,. without Marner et al, and then compare that to a similarly important player(s) on a bad team swapped to TOR (with Matthew's supporting cast). That is, try and standardize for the supporting cast differences between key players, and one can average over a number of players as well, and then compare the salary (as a percent of cap at time of signing) ratios.

When I eyeball this, Matthews comes up as a $10M-11.5M player, maybe $12-12.5 if you want to overpay for extrinsic reasons. The further up you go from $11.5 the more likely you're better of trading him, e.g., to ARZ for Keller++, as the team use of cap space with the alternative package will be better and TOR winning percentage is more likely than not better as well.

Aho just got $9.75M/year...how much more would Carolina pay per season to have Matthews instead (noting the extra cap means less to spread around/impact on the roster)?

the last time ii went to an NHL game before April 2023 was back in 2010. the ticket prices are all based on supply and demand. the supply doesnt change, only the demand.. and until demand for tickets goes down, the ticket prices will keep going up.
- stefano76

I guess you could say STUPIDS RULE I just am not one of those idiots

DRUNK AND STUPID That is what all fans of all sports are these days. That is a daily double that you can count on.

By doubling his salary is he going to double his output You people are just freaking fools
- broncohorvath

Terribly flawed logic in so many levels!

And you might have to sell one of your children or maybe you dog to afford the games I gave up my tickets long long ago in a galaxy far far away Anyone who pays those prices should be locked up for BEING STUPID
- broncohorvath

Well if you value catching the game live over one of your children then I suppose you might look into doing that (whether it’s morally right or legal is a whole other conversation). But he’s right though…the going price is what the market is willing to bear. So as long as someone is willing to pay that price then that’s the price. Stop hating on the organization that’s doing what makes perfect business sense.

I don't have Matthews in the same tier as McDavid, etc who make 14+% of the team cap hit (or Draisaitl who should make that much). To me he's at most a 12-13% guy...on the same level as a Barkov, Tkachuk, Rantanen, etc.

My "moneypuck" approach to this sort of question is based on an approximation of how impactful the player could be on a low-end team without his existing supporting cast - i.e,. without Marner et al, and then compare that to a similarly important player(s) on a bad team swapped to TOR (with Matthew's supporting cast). That is, try and standardize for the supporting cast differences between key players, and one can average over a number of players as well, and then compare the salary (as a percent of cap at time of signing) ratios.

When I eyeball this, Matthews comes up as a $10M-11.5M player, maybe $12-12.5 if you want to overpay for extrinsic reasons. The further up you go from $11.5 the more likely you're better of trading him, e.g., to ARZ for Keller++, as the team use of cap space with the alternative package will be better and TOR winning percentage is more likely than not better as well.

Aho just got $9.75M/year...how much more would Carolina pay per season to have Matthews instead (noting the extra cap means less to spread around/impact on the roster)?
- mventres

Whoa BOLD STATEMENT man

Doesn't matter if he is worth it.

The only things that matter are if the team wants him , if he can fill seats, and if he can make them competitive (because no team is a shoe-in).

The answer is yes to all.

So, he will get paid.

If salaries were based on Cups won, McDavid would be making Reaves money.

Actually the whole world doesn't know that, those are predictions. Remember 3 years ago when the cap was suppose to jump up 4-5 million then it was just 1 million....

Nothing is guaranteed.
- Glak18

This!

Add in that most of the posters here are not watching the implosion of Bally Sports or ESPN. They bid crazy sums of money which they cannot currently sustain. The advertising dollars that these two have been taking in is shrinking, from lack of viewership. ESPN bet heavily that NHL fans would pony up for ESPN+, and that didn’t happen. Bally bit off more than they can chew, assuming the advertising revenue would continue to rise.

It’s a huge downward cycle. Has anyone seen the viewership ratings this past year?

So I will ask, how is everyone banking that the cap will keep rising, when network revenue is down so drastically? Yes, the networks not in bankruptcy will pay out the current contract, but then what?

I don’t know how many years that ESPN, Bally’s, etc are on the hook for, I just know that the next broadcast rights contract will not be what it is today. Not without a significant change in how fans are able to watch, and at what cost.

I’d listen to anyone who has some relevant info on this situation.

Thanks in advance!

he's not resigning. trade him to the islanders for ross johnston

but the obvious thing to do here is trade one of the three for a great D ?
- Xizord

This has been the move to make since....at least before Tavares was signed. Why their fans can see it and yet the various memebers of their management team cannot is perplexing.

The topic isn’t whether Leaf’s will win with AM or not (yes that is a valid question but not the question here). Bottom line is that if AM does in fact play another 4-5 seasons in Toronto - barring serious injury or the world stopping again - he will likely be the franchise leader in goals and possible points (MM will give him a serious run here). This is a 100+ year old franchise with so many HOF’s and he will have achieved this by the time he turns 30-31. You have to pay and pay dearly for that coz a guy like that doesn’t come along very often…and when he does he’s usually not playing for the Leafs

I feel like when discussing the value of star players the "scientifically derived" approach often leads to a different result than the relative/comparative approach.

If you approach the question from the angle of "the cap is $x million per year, a typical Stanley Cup contender nets at least y goals above replacement, Matthews contributes z% of that total, so here's what a contending team should be willing to pay him" then yes, he's definitely worth $12m-$14m.

But the issue for the Leafs is that virtually every other NHL star and superstar player is underpaid, often significantly, when you consider how important they actually are to team success. So if Toronto's stars are fairly paid or even just a little underpaid, they're at a competitive disadvantage.

People will say that stars have to leave a ton of money on the table in order to win a championship. I don't really think that's completely true, to be honest. If a star takes $9m instead of the $13m they're realistically worth (even on a championship-caliber roster), what typically happens is the GM just blows the extra $4m by overpaying middle-of-the-lineup free agents and rewarding long-serving role players that don't really move the needle much. Most of the money that the star leaves on the table goes to players who don't really deserve it, and could easily be replaced by cheaper alternatives.

But that also puts intense pressure on the GM to make ruthlessly efficient decisions up and down the lineup, with little room for error. A GM with an extra $4m to play with can afford to make an expensive mistake or two that a GM with a tighter budget can't.

I feel like when discussing the value of star players the "scientifically derived" approach often leads to a different result than the relative/comparative approach.

If you approach the question from the angle of "the cap is $x million per year, a typical Stanley Cup contender nets at least y goals above replacement, Matthews contributes z% of that total, so here's what a contending team should be willing to pay him" then yes, he's definitely worth $12m-$14m.

But the issue for the Leafs is that virtually every other NHL star and superstar player is underpaid, often significantly, when you consider how important they actually are to team success. So if Toronto's stars are fairly paid or even just a little underpaid, they're at a competitive disadvantage.

People will say that stars have to leave a ton of money on the table in order to win a championship. I don't really think that's completely true, to be honest. If a star takes $9m instead of the $13m they're realistically worth (even on a championship-caliber roster), what typically happens is the GM just blows the extra $4m by overpaying middle-of-the-lineup free agents and rewarding long-serving role players that don't really move the needle much. Most of the money that the star leaves on the table goes to players who don't really deserve it, and could easily be replaced by cheaper alternatives.

But that also puts intense pressure on the GM to make ruthlessly efficient decisions up and down the lineup, with little room for error. A GM with an extra $4m to play with can afford to make an expensive mistake or two that a GM with a tighter budget can't.
- Sven22

Very very well said. I agree with everything you said, minus the 4th paragraph.

As much as I hate the Leafs (sens fan) I do feel like they are stuck on this one. Matthews has no desire to take a 'home town discount' for the betterment of the team. I am not saying he should, but it really does handcuff them. If you look at past cup winning teams, or even teams that go far, they have multiple underpaid players. Some of them are due to good, lucky, contracts and others are due to purposely taking discounts so the team will be better. Vegas, Tampa, Colorado, St. Lou... even back to Pittsburgh all won cups because the 'superstars' took less and the GMs had cash to spend on middle 6 forwards and solid 3-4 Dmen.

Go pack to Pittsburgh. Crosby and Malkin took ridiculously low contracts to leave money on the table. Same deal in Tampa with Stamkos. You don't see this from any of the top players in Toronto. These guys are going to take as much as they can get.

The Leafs can't let him walk. They can't trade him without rebuilding. They are stuck. And all this will do is push up salaries for the rest of the impact players on their team. And the kicker is that none of them have actually made an 'impact' when it counts - the playoffs.

I really don't know what the answer is for the Leafs other than just handing out the cash to the top guys and hoping they get lucky with contracts for the lesser players.

The same thing just happened in Boston with Pasta. For years, guys on that team took less for the good of the whole. Players actually mentioned it in interviews. But that whole team philosophy just got thrown out the window with the Pasta signing. And with Bergeron retiring... well that culture is gone.

Whether we like it or not, he's going to be the highest paid player in the league. Puts up 40+ a year, number one overall pick, he's worth top money. There's a more nuanced discussion to have regarding whether it's possible to ice a winning team with multiple contracts of that value.

Whoa BOLD STATEMENT man
- Not_Yan

lol, true but you forgot the "etc" and "14+% of the cap" part...

Doesn't matter if he is worth it.

The only things that matter are if the team wants him , if he can fill seats, and if he can make them competitive (because no team is a shoe-in).

The answer is yes to all.

So, he will get paid.

If salaries were based on Cups won, McDavid would be making Reaves money.
- sokosteve

Pat Maroon would be doing a lot better. I think you should send this to Allan Walsh or Pat Brisson.