Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 
Forums :: Blog World :: Michael DeRosa: Canucks Free Agency Tracker
Author Message
Quinn's Quest
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 08.08.2022

Jul 15 @ 1:08 PM ET
Probably not in Vancouver, because we'd have to dump most of our overpaid role players like Boeser, Garland et. al and nobody will do us any favors by just taking them off of our hands without significant sweetners to do so.
- DariusKnight


1. They they have the cap room as more contracts come off the books. The increase for Petey and Hronek about 6M is alone covered by Myers contract.
2. The cap ceiling going up significantly in ‘24/‘25 will make Boeser and Garland easier to move.
Nighthawk
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Canuckville, BC
Joined: 01.09.2015

Jul 15 @ 1:28 PM ET
If I were him I'd wait. Cap going up means more for him
- Jkuzzi

Comes down to greed or team 1st.
NewYorkNuck
Vancouver Canucks
Location: New York, NY
Joined: 07.11.2015

Jul 15 @ 1:50 PM ET
I think you're light on both those players.
- Jkuzzi


Harm has a good article sort of very loosely projecting the next couple year caps with contracts on the books and people to re-sign.

https://theathletic.com/4...ter-cap-projections-2026/

Using some comps he has Petey and Hronek at ...

Pettersson, Hronek and the rest of the RFA deals

Pettersson, Hronek, Podkolzin, Arturs Silovs and Nils Åman are the most notable players who will become RFAs in the 2024 offseason.

Projecting their next contracts this far out is, of course, challenging and imprecise. A lot can change performance-wise between now and then. Our goal isn’t to nail the specific RFA deals, however, it’s to generate ballpark estimates so that we can plug those in and get a bigger-picture view of the Canucks’ overall cap situation.

For Pettersson, there’s a very strong chance his next contract will include an eight-figure cap hit.

Mathew Barzal, for reference, signed an eight-year extension last fall at a $9.15 million cap hit. Barzal was coming off a year where he’d only scored 59 points in 73 games when he signed that deal. Pettersson, meanwhile, is on the heels of a 102-point campaign. He’s clearly separated himself from Barzal as a player and should command significantly more.

On the highest end of the range, Nathan MacKinnon secured a $12.6 million AAV on an eight-year deal he signed last fall. Pettersson is a superstar but he doesn’t have MacKinnon’s resume, so he should fall short of that type of figure.

Auston Matthews and Sebastian Aho could sign extensions this summer as both No. 1 centres are a year away from being UFAs. Those deals could introduce new market comparables for Pettersson.

For now, let’s roughly split the difference between Barzal’s and MacKinnon’s cap hits by handing Pettersson an $11 million AAV, on what we hope and assume will be an eight-year extension. You might be tempted to try and use a player like Brayden Point as a contract comparable for Pettersson, but Barzal’s and MacKinnon’s respective deals are more recent and relevant (those deals were negotiated with the understanding that the salary cap was gonna spike compared to, say, Point when there was much less certainty about that).

Let’s move on and do a quick and dirty projection for Hronek.

Hronek, like Pettersson, will have arbitration rights and can become UFA-eligible in 2025 which will give him great leverage. There’s a tightly packed group of potential comparables when we look at No. 2/3 calibre defenders, with whom Hronek shares a similar statistical profile in terms of ice time and points. The deals below bought one extra UFA year than Hronek’s next deal (UFA years cost more than RFA years), but we’re talking about max term extensions, so a one-year UFA vs. RFA discrepancy won’t make much of a difference.

Based on those comps, $6.25 million seems like a sweet spot. With that said, the cap will be higher when Hronek negotiates his deal compared to some of those other contracts, meaning he’ll naturally ask for more. And if he has a strong year, he’ll have a lot of power in contract talks after everything the Canucks surrendered to acquire him and the threat of being able to go to arbitration and take a one-year deal that walks him to unrestricted free agency.

Let’s give Hronek a modest bump from $6.25 million to $6.5 million annually on a long-term deal to account for the rising cap.
Nighthawk
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Canuckville, BC
Joined: 01.09.2015

Jul 15 @ 2:02 PM ET
Harm has a good article sort of very loosely projecting the next couple year caps with contracts on the books and people to re-sign.

https://theathletic.com/4...ter-cap-projections-2026/

Using some comps he has Petey and Hronek at ...

- NewYorkNuck

Good article mostly. So about 17.5m for EP & Hronek the guesstimate. Wonder what CA will chime in with? Lol
LordHumungous
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Greetings from the Humungous. Ayatollah of rock and rolla!
Joined: 08.15.2014

Jul 15 @ 2:25 PM ET
Probably not in Vancouver, because we'd have to dump most of our overpaid role players like Boeser, Garland et. al and nobody will do us any favors by just taking them off of our hands without significant sweetners to do so.
- DariusKnight

Pettersson will get paid. In Van.
Nighthawk
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Canuckville, BC
Joined: 01.09.2015

Jul 15 @ 2:33 PM ET
Looked around the leagues better D teams cap spent on D & found we are not that far out of line. Myers of course for value easily the biggest drag on value. Expecting the Hronek bump & Myers gone next up is Soucy who is a solid value if he brings what he has the past few seasons. Cole as stop gap is manageable & good asset if the Canucks show real improvement or as a TDL chip.

What D lacks is obvious defensive shut down top 4 & PK. Pesce be a great fit at the right price. Currently 4.025m going into UFA status. Somewhere in the 5.5m range would fit the cap nicely in 2024/25.

Hughes 4/7.85m
Hronek 7-8/6.5m max
Pesce 7/5.5m
Soucy 3/3.25m

Leaves the need for good depth D on cheap contracts. Very manageable situation signing the right UFA D & develop D prospects. Size & mobility & passing being in the VGK model be best. There are those type of prospects in the system if they keep trending well along with some nice offensive D to compliment that.

Overall we’re still not a contender soon but also maybe not as far away as some might think. Earliest I can see is contending in 3 years. 4-5 years is more than a reasonable expectation. In the meantime make some noise & build a team identity. Cap management has to be top priority now & in all future years. It can improve more as soon as this TDL & definitely a must for 2024/25. PA has to be shrewd & also draft well for long term success. RT & staff under the gun to lead the roster forward now.
Nighthawk
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Canuckville, BC
Joined: 01.09.2015

Jul 15 @ 2:35 PM ET
Pettersson will get paid. In Van.
- LordHumungous

That’s an obvious no brainer. Thx for that nugget we missed your insight lol
VANTEL
Joined: 07.03.2010

Jul 15 @ 2:38 PM ET
I love how we are throwing 6.5 mil at a Dman that has played 3 games for us. And you guys call Benning a bad manager

At least Dermott played 18 games.
Nighthawk
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Canuckville, BC
Joined: 01.09.2015

Jul 15 @ 2:40 PM ET
In the immediate future the forwards will be my focus on how they adjust to RT. The forecheck & 200’ game has been sub par to say the least. The D we all know about but that has gotten addressed & a wait n see there.

The PK once again my fave harp is horrible & a MUST to improve to have any realistic chance to improve to a sustainable level to succeed.
Nighthawk
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Canuckville, BC
Joined: 01.09.2015

Jul 15 @ 2:43 PM ET
I love how we are throwing 6.5 mil at a Dman that has played 3 games for us. And you guys call Benning a bad manager

At least Dermott played 18 games.

- VANTEL

It’s only a projection lol

Don’t see a deal being imminent. It’ll take Hronek to be healthy & earn his raise to any level he might get. 6m is my starting point that could go up or down. That’s top 3 D territory.
Nighthawk
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Canuckville, BC
Joined: 01.09.2015

Jul 15 @ 2:45 PM ET
Our cap has too many high paid wingers. Something has to give there going forward.
VANTEL
Joined: 07.03.2010

Jul 15 @ 2:46 PM ET
It’s only a projection lol

Don’t see a deal being imminent. It’ll take Hronek to be healthy & earn his raise to any level he might get. 6m is my starting point that could go up or down. That’s top 3 D territory.

- Nighthawk


I say wait and see how he does.
Nighthawk
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Canuckville, BC
Joined: 01.09.2015

Jul 15 @ 2:52 PM ET
Having over 15m tied up in BB Garland & Beau who don’t PK hurts.
Only BB gets top PP time & needs to hit 30g at his price tag. Garland & Beau have to prove better value for mid 6 wingers at their price. Not worried about Miky unless injuries become a constant issue. Kuz has to continue his success. All other wingers have to be better on the cheap as role players til they either drag the team up the ladder or get replaced. Pod & Hog gotta make noise sooner than later so bigger W contracts can be moved out for value or small hits.
Nighthawk
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Canuckville, BC
Joined: 01.09.2015

Jul 15 @ 2:52 PM ET
I say wait and see how he does.
- VANTEL

I expect both sides will do that 👍
VanHockeyGuy
Location: “Who are we to think we’re anybody?” - Tocchet. Penticton, BC
Joined: 04.26.2012

Jul 15 @ 2:54 PM ET
Our cap has too many high paid wingers. Something has to give there going forward.
- Nighthawk


Thanks Tips!
Nighthawk
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Canuckville, BC
Joined: 01.09.2015

Jul 15 @ 2:56 PM ET
The giraffe in the room has always been Myers since day 1.

Cap spent on wingers is a thorn imo. For the money spent on them we should be a top 5 scoring possession team & we are not.
K-man25
Calgary Flames
Location: K Town
Joined: 09.02.2014

Jul 15 @ 3:01 PM ET
I say wait and see how he does.
- VANTEL

Or how many games he plays. 1st and a 2nd in a deep draft for an injury prone D is a very Benning type move.
I hate to say it but Lefty might be right about Yzerman.
Nighthawk
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Canuckville, BC
Joined: 01.09.2015

Jul 15 @ 3:03 PM ET
Thanks Tips!

- VanHockeyGuy

Anytime lol

On to some predictions time. Garland is Garland & hard to get value in a trade let alone seemingly costs an asset(s). Best to shop at the TDL again. Beauvillier can be better now that he’s been here a bit. Luv his speed & forecheck but needs to be a good 3rd wheel to gel a line. Going into UFA we should expect to see his best but still see him taking a shave off his 4.15m. Mid 6 winger who can play up if needed but 3-3.5m is my value. That range allows for an EP raise to fit in better. Yes EP will get paid but others have to be more realistic contracts for success & cap reasons.
VANTEL
Joined: 07.03.2010

Jul 15 @ 3:05 PM ET
Or how many games he plays. 1st and a 2nd in a deep draft for an injury prone D is a very Benning type move.
I hate to say it but Lefty might be right about Yzerman.

- K-man25


Rule #1 Lefty is never right.

Rule #2 Even if you think Lefty is right, refer to rule #1.
Nighthawk
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Canuckville, BC
Joined: 01.09.2015

Jul 15 @ 3:07 PM ET
Or how many games he plays. 1st and a 2nd in a deep draft for an injury prone D is a very Benning type move.
I hate to say it but Lefty might be right about Yzerman.

- K-man25

Health will be factor no doubt. SY is no guru. He got good value for Hronek not spectacular.

What is your opinion on the Provorov cost to put into perspective what D cost to attain?
VANTEL
Joined: 07.03.2010

Jul 15 @ 3:08 PM ET
Anytime lol

On to some predictions time. Garland is Garland & hard to get value in a trade let alone seemingly costs an asset(s). Best to shop at the TDL again. Beauvillier can be better now that he’s been here a bit. Luv his speed & forecheck but needs to be a good 3rd wheel to gel a line. Going into UFA we should expect to see his best but still see him taking a shave off his 4.15m. Mid 6 winger who can play up if needed but 3-3.5m is my value. That range allows for an EP raise to fit in better. Yes EP will get paid but others have to be more realistic contracts for success & cap reasons.

- Nighthawk


Garland will play this year with Joshua and Aman and have a productive line.

Hoglander will play with Brock and JTM

Third line Pearson Blueger and Leblanc.


Nighthawk
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Canuckville, BC
Joined: 01.09.2015

Jul 15 @ 3:12 PM ET
Garland will play this year with Joshua and Aman and have a productive line.

Hoglander will play with Brock and JTM

Third line Pearson Blueger and Leblanc.

- VANTEL

So leaves EP Kuz & Miky but where does Beauvillier play? Pod to Abby solely due to waiver exempt I got that.
VANTEL
Joined: 07.03.2010

Jul 15 @ 3:19 PM ET
So leaves EP Kuz & Miky but where does Beauvillier play? Pod to Abby solely due to waiver exempt I got that.
- Nighthawk


Let's see who PA puts on LTIR fake injury.
Nighthawk
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Canuckville, BC
Joined: 01.09.2015

Jul 15 @ 3:24 PM ET
Disclaimer: ignore it’s Faber on CA LOL

https://canucksarmy.com/n...la-klimovich-out-top-time

A pretty accurate assessment on Klimovich imo. This season is HUGE for him to build on last season & really come into his own. I want to see him be a beast in all ways & mature to another level or 2. Become an AHL dominant power forward every shift or at least be his goal. He has a great tool kit but still 2 years away if he continues to project on his recent improvement.

He can be mid 6 NHL winger with his size & skills if his skating can improve some more. 3rd wheel type but a good one if I’m correct.
CanuckDon
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Las Vegas
Joined: 08.05.2014

Jul 15 @ 3:31 PM ET
Or how many games he plays. 1st and a 2nd in a deep draft for an injury prone D is a very Benning type move.
I hate to say it but Lefty might be right about Yzerman.

- K-man25

Why is he injury prone?
Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108  Next