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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Hart On Leafs Goaltending Radar???
Author Message
GreatGigInTheSky
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: "Yeah, Garth is a tool"- Garf, ON
Joined: 06.12.2017

Jun 8 @ 1:26 PM ET
Being how he’s 24, I think a pick in the 20s is feasible. Most goalies don’t even get their full-time break until then. He’s ready to go.

But I don’t even know who wants him. Since he is only 24, I’m fine with holding on and riding it out.

It’s not like Fedotov is ever going to play in Philly after the Russians charged him, jailed him, and hid him away in the frozen tundra. He’s Red Army for life now. Sticking it out with Hart is a perfectly fine option for them.

- Hesh_


Is it, though? Because Briere looks to be doing what should've been done a while ago, and is going full scorched Earth. Trading the goalie, who does have value (but is still a goalie), seems like it should be one of the first steps taken.

Everything would be pointless if you kept the goalie around and don't commit fully to the tank.

Harts a good goalie and all but he's also had some noticeable downs in his short career so far, even when Philly wasn't one of the worst teams in the league. Will he be better on a better team? Most probably, yes. But that's not a sure thing with him.
MaximusAurelius
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: #FireDubas
Joined: 04.23.2012

Jun 8 @ 1:26 PM ET
Fire Dubas !
GreatGigInTheSky
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: "Yeah, Garth is a tool"- Garf, ON
Joined: 06.12.2017

Jun 8 @ 1:27 PM ET
What’s this about then?…I feel like I’m missing a post here
- Big23Questions


Random Sens fan on the twitter Dm'd DeBrincat with that message.
Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The Name Of The Game Is Hockey, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Jun 8 @ 1:29 PM ET


What's worse? Actually DM'ing a player this nonsense or thinking the 21st place team in the league is a playoff team?

- GreatGigInTheSky



Both things are deeply concerning.
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Space for Rent
Joined: 08.30.2006

Jun 8 @ 1:33 PM ET
Fire Up A Dubas !
- MaximusAurelius



it's 420 somewhere eh!!!
Adam French
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Isn't Cooley 5"11? You know who else is 5"11? Sydney Crosby. - Scabeh
Joined: 04.06.2011

Jun 8 @ 1:37 PM ET
Fire Dubas !
- MaximusAurelius

A bit soon for that,
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Jun 8 @ 1:38 PM ET
Fire Dubas !
- MaximusAurelius


Wrong thread.



dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Space for Rent
Joined: 08.30.2006

Jun 8 @ 1:49 PM ET
Wrong thread.
- Monkeypunk

he meant to say fire Keefe!
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Jun 8 @ 1:58 PM ET
Is it, though? Because Briere looks to be doing what should've been done a while ago, and is going full scorched Earth. Trading the goalie, who does have value (but is still a goalie), seems like it should be one of the first steps taken.

Everything would be pointless if you kept the goalie around and don't commit fully to the tank.

Harts a good goalie and all but he's also had some noticeable downs in his short career so far, even when Philly wasn't one of the worst teams in the league. Will he be better on a better team? Most probably, yes. But that's not a sure thing with him.

- GreatGigInTheSky


I posted something yesterday looked at individual game performances by goalies - basically how often does a goalie "steal" a game. In that initial focus I used complete games where the goalie had a GSAx > 2, but decided to recalibrate that look solely at 5v5 play and striate into +4, +3, +2, but also the crap the bed side: -2, -3, and -4 GSAx games. Now most goalies fit in the -2 to +2 range, so these other games are really the outliers and are designed to give a sense of how often the goalie directly contributes to a win or a loss themselves.

This past season was Hart's 5th in the league.

Hart 2018: He was +2 or better twice, and -2 or worse five times
Hart 2019: He was +2 or better twice, -3 or worse twice and -2 or worse five times.
Hart 2020: He was -3 or worse once and -2 or worse four times.
Hart 2021: He was +2 or better twice, -3 or worse twice and -2 or worse three times.
Hart 2022: He was +3 or better once, +2 or better five times and -2 or worse 4 times.

. . .and it was the first time he started to steal more games than he "gave away". His overall lack of consistency is what hurts him. Being +3 in a game happens in less than 1% of the games played; being -3 happens about 1.8% of the time (I don't have enough data to draw a satisfactory conclusion, but I'd suppose that it's because offense is momentum-based whereas defense isn't (i.e., when teams smell blood in the water, they swarm)).

Ultimately to me Hart is a capable goalie who isn't worth the risk for a playoff team until he develops more consistency.



Big23Questions
Detroit Red Wings
Joined: 04.11.2018

Jun 8 @ 2:04 PM ET
Random Sens fan on the twitter Dm'd DeBrincat with that message.
- GreatGigInTheSky




Ahh ok. Ya I’ve met all 20 of them - weird dudes sens fanbase
Tee-Dot
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: For being Stee's alternate personality or being associated with M. Night Shyamalan?
Joined: 12.11.2008

Jun 8 @ 2:12 PM ET
Welp... starting to get day drunk. Now where the (frank) is joel??
drexel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Corn Pop was a bad dude, AB
Joined: 06.29.2006

Jun 8 @ 2:14 PM ET
Welp... starting to get day drunk. Now where the (frank) is joel??
- Tee-Dot

waiting for Santo
Tee-Dot
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: For being Stee's alternate personality or being associated with M. Night Shyamalan?
Joined: 12.11.2008

Jun 8 @ 2:15 PM ET
waiting for Santo
- drexel

Yeah, caught the tail end of that. The whole last word. Love it.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Jun 8 @ 2:16 PM ET
waiting for Santo
- drexel


restraining order is completed.

That won't stop him from obsessing over my posts sadly

The haziness we are seeing is the steam coming from Joels ears, not the fires
Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The Name Of The Game Is Hockey, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Jun 8 @ 2:18 PM ET
Welp... starting to get day drunk. Now where the (frank) is joel??
- Tee-Dot


If he went into those woods you can forget about him.
Adam French
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Isn't Cooley 5"11? You know who else is 5"11? Sydney Crosby. - Scabeh
Joined: 04.06.2011

Jun 8 @ 2:20 PM ET
Welp... starting to get day drunk. Now where the (frank) is joel??
- Tee-Dot

Finally you're making sense.
Tee-Dot
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: For being Stee's alternate personality or being associated with M. Night Shyamalan?
Joined: 12.11.2008

Jun 8 @ 2:21 PM ET
restraining order is completed.

That won't stop him from obsessing over my posts sadly

- Santo_44

Funny thing is he thinks I obsess over his which have nothing to do with hockey. He just got upset one day because I was being Stee and jovial about WWF/WWE and he felt the need to get up from his mahogany-laden study and condescend on how to run my life.

Guy can't take a joke. Like my mom said... if you let them get to ya. I personally have no problem with the guy. Seems smart and harmless but if he wants to have a battle of wits then I'll keep firing.
Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The Name Of The Game Is Hockey, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Jun 8 @ 2:27 PM ET
Lol always the same guys having drama
Dozzer
Referee
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow since I’m way up high
Joined: 09.15.2010

Jun 8 @ 2:38 PM ET
Lol always the same guys having drama
- Zezel




Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Jun 8 @ 2:38 PM ET
Here we go again
Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The Name Of The Game Is Hockey, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Jun 8 @ 2:39 PM ET



- Dozzer


Lol that's a good one
Tee-Dot
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: For being Stee's alternate personality or being associated with M. Night Shyamalan?
Joined: 12.11.2008

Jun 8 @ 2:40 PM ET
Lol always the same guys having drama
- Zezel

Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Jun 8 @ 2:41 PM ET
Ottawa traded away a top 8 pick in the draft along with a 2nd a 3rd for brainycat
Im not they get a top 10 pick back in their upcoming trade
We'll see
drexel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Corn Pop was a bad dude, AB
Joined: 06.29.2006

Jun 8 @ 2:42 PM ET
Here we go again
- Fakepartofme

I regret nothing
shack67
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: NS
Joined: 07.05.2015

Jun 8 @ 2:42 PM ET



- Dozzer

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