Agreed, if they keep both of them they need to budget ~ $13 and $9 for them. That's manageable if they want them. Brodie will be up and due for a dramatic decrease.

Lots of change between now and then I'm sure.
- The Law

They won’t get Matthews that cheap as a UFA. For him to have a take home of around $8 million he needs $14. As a UFA he’ll get offers from just about everyone and the leafs will need to match the best one.

When discussing Samsonov, let’s look at some basic comparables – I don’t think he’s coming back on another show-me deal.

Samsonov started 40 games which puts him 24th among NHL starters.
For the purposes of consideration, I’m looking at the top 30 in starts which includes Gustavsson in Minnesota, who similarly had a very strong season. The others including in this grouping below Samsonov did not have particularly strong or necessarily healthy seasons (Grubauer, Montembeault, Mrazek, Kahkoken and Korpisalo); I preface this just so it is understood that the dataset used is consistent, arbitrary in nature and not altered.

Consistency is obviously key among goalies, so avoiding bad starts and having quality starts is a basis for consideration. These stats are heavily influenced by the team’s performance, but can provide indicators of the goalie’s consistency. Out of 30 considered goalies, Samsonov was 13th in bad starts and 5th in good starts. The best goalie in this category for both was Ullmark. Korpisalo and Hellebuyck were 2 and 3in bad starts with Gustavsson and Sorokin on the good start side.

Then I thought about stealing games? How many times did these goalies have a GSAx greater than 2 in a single game which should be a key advantage (teams won 153 of the 205 games where this happened in regulation or overtime, and many of the 52 other games were decided in OT or the SO). The Leafs as a team had 12 of these games, Sammy had 7 of them (Murray 2, Woll 2, and Kallgren 1) and the Leafs did go 12-0 in these games. Sammy was 6th in terms of the percentage of games he “stole”. Sorokin, Gustavsson, Hellebuyck, Saros and Oettinger are in positions 1-5 (for poops and giggles, the worst of the measured goalies were Mrazek, Kahkoen and Korpisalo).

Individually, Sammy had the best HD Save Percentage among all starters, and the 2nd worst MD Save percentage! His LD Save Percentage was 5th best. Some of these I’ve always maintained are variable with a team’s style. I find the Leafs will collapse towards the net forcing more, but often better MD shots which probably led to Sammy’s weak numbers – Murray’s weren’t much better.

Ultimately this past year for Samsonov is one where if the Leafs attempt to get Samsonov to show them on a cheap deal, I think he’ll go to arbitration and get a significant increase in pay.

By the way, the rumoured acquisitions Gibson (too many bad starts, not many good starts, and 8th in stolen games; all save percentages near the bottom) and Hart (same as Gibson, but slightly better in each category (7th in stolen games); above average HD, average LD, and below average MD) are more expensive and haven't performed as well as Samsonov.
- Monkeypunk

The talking heads at the Athletic have him at ~ 3M on a 1yr or 3.4M on a 2 yr. I think that's about right.

Vejmelka, Kahkonen, Georgiev, Vanecek ....lots of comps on 2 to 3 yr deals at 2.6-3.4 per year. Both sides could say (frank) it ...do a 1 yr deal and get me to UFA quicker.

They won’t get Matthews that cheap as a UFA. For him to have a take home of around $8 million he needs $14. As a UFA he’ll get offers from just about everyone and the leafs will need to match the best one.
- Dozzer

Not that many teams are competitive and have the room to offer him his money ...Leafs have both to offer. Not to mention being his second home that he loves for his entire adult life. All to say ...he could leave ..but it won't be as simple as who's got $1 more to offer.

He'll be back. Mark me down in Wedgies June prediction list ...

1. Matthews re-signs in Toronto (maybe later in the summer).
2. Murray is traded or bought out.
3. RoR re-signs in Toronto.
4. Blue line gets a decent facelift.

what the (frank) is going on up there with the fires?🤦‍♂️

doesn’t your government confiscate half of your property to keep you safe from Mother Nature?🤦🏿‍♂️

now your polluted air is crossing the border and making people cough in nyc😭

stay inside, mask up, and wait for your public servants to tell you when it’s safe to do whatever the (frank) you want to do as long as it’s not infringing on someone’s life liberty or property👊🏿

The talking heads at the Athletic have him at ~ 3M on a 1yr or 3.4M on a 2 yr. I think that's about right.

Vejmelka, Kahkonen, Georgiev, Vanecek ....lots of comps on 2 to 3 yr deals at 2.6-3.4 per year. Both sides could say (frank) it ...do a 1 yr deal and get me to UFA quicker.
- The Law

Anything in that 3x3 ballpark would be good to me. If Woll emerges as a starter, then you can move Sammy to a team that needs him and recoup something for him. If it takes Woll longer or he never quite gets there, then you're covered.

They won’t get Matthews that cheap as a UFA. For him to have a take home of around $8 million he needs $14. As a UFA he’ll get offers from just about everyone and the leafs will need to match the best one.
- Dozzer

Remember that Matthews is subject to Arizona taxes while he resides there. He is there in July when he receives his signing bonus, so that's why his contract is setup with 94% of it in up front signing bonuses. Arizona is one of the few US states with no state tax, so he pays the income tax rate that everyone does, but is hardly affected by the high Canadian taxes.

Any new contract he signs will also leverage this "loophole" to maximize his salary.

Canadian players like Marner or Tavares have to use other types of shelters to protect their up front signing bonus money and wouldn't be as lucky as Matthews, but there are deferral methods they would choose to use.

what the (frank) is going on up there with the fires?🤦‍♂️

doesn’t your government confiscate half of your property to keep you safe from Mother Nature?🤦🏿‍♂️

now your polluted air is crossing the border and making people cough in nyc😭

stay inside, mask up, and wait for your public servants to tell you when it’s safe to do whatever the (frank) you want to do as long as it’s not infringing on someone’s life liberty or property👊🏿
- Skalapy

It is a humanitarian catastrophe really. A bunch of Quebeckers don't know how to stub out a dart properly, ends up smoking out all the innocent Bidenomics victims down there.

Peterson and his 5Mx2 (11M in cash) cost the Kings a 2nd rounder, a good prospect and they had to absorb $2M in cap space for two years.

Mrazek and his 3.8Mx2 (8.6M in cash) cost the Leafs the 13 spot drop in the draft ..which I think worked out to be about equivalent to a 2nd round pick.

Murray would be 4.65M (6M in cash). Probably should be similar to Mrazek or even a little cheaper. Murray also has that M-NTC.
- The Law

For sure. I can see it being cheaper, for sure, because this is touted as a much deeper draft. So picks are worth more.

And I named the teams that I did also because they got CAP space on top of only one goalie signed going into next season.

They won’t get Matthews that cheap as a UFA. For him to have a take home of around $8 million he needs $14. As a UFA he’ll get offers from just about everyone and the leafs will need to match the best one.
- Dozzer

Matthews does, and most likely will again, get the vast majority of his contract in signing bonus, which helps skirt the tax man.

Remember that Matthews is subject to Arizona taxes while he resides there. He is there in July when he receives his signing bonus, so that's why his contract is setup with 94% of it in up front signing bonuses. Arizona is one of the few US states with no state tax, so he pays the income tax rate that everyone does, but is hardly affected by the high Canadian taxes.

Any new contract he signs will also leverage this "loophole" to maximize his salary.

Canadian players like Marner or Tavares have to use other types of shelters to protect their up front signing bonus money and wouldn't be as lucky as Matthews, but there are deferral methods they would choose to use.
- Monkeypunk

Yet again, all I had to do was read a few posts ahead.

It is a humanitarian catastrophe really. A bunch of Quebeckers don't know how to stub out a dart properly, ends up smoking out all the innocent Bidenomics victims down there.
- Zezel

lmfaooooooooo 🤣

Yet again, all I had to do was read a few posts ahead.
- GreatGigInTheSky

It's about reinforcement of our point. How can someone argue with this combined genius?

It's about reinforcement of our point. How can someone argue with this combined genius?
- Monkeypunk

Not that many teams are competitive and have the room to offer him his money ...Leafs have both to offer. Not to mention being his second home that he loves for his entire adult life. All to say ...he could leave ..but it won't be as simple as who's got $1 more to offer.

He'll be back. Mark me down in Wedgies June prediction list ...

1. Matthews re-signs in Toronto (maybe later in the summer).
2. Murray is traded or bought out.
3. RoR re-signs in Toronto.
4. Blue line gets a decent facelift.
- The Law

I don’t agree with 3 and only the traded part of number 2

Remember that Matthews is subject to Arizona taxes while he resides there. He is there in July when he receives his signing bonus, so that's why his contract is setup with 94% of it in up front signing bonuses. Arizona is one of the few US states with no state tax, so he pays the income tax rate that everyone does, but is hardly affected by the high Canadian taxes.

Any new contract he signs will also leverage this "loophole" to maximize his salary.

Canadian players like Marner or Tavares have to use other types of shelters to protect their up front signing bonus money and wouldn't be as lucky as Matthews, but there are deferral methods they would choose to use.
- Monkeypunk

Those numbers already include the Arizona taxation… for him to take $8 million back solely in Ontario he’d need to be paid around $17,215,000

Matthews does, and most likely will again, get the vast majority of his contract in signing bonus, which helps skirt the tax man.
- GreatGigInTheSky

Yup, everything except the $750K a year he makes

Hell, my grandparents loved the leafs too but if I was good enough to play in the NHL (not even close just to be clear lol) and they found out I took a cheaper contract just “to be a leaf” they’d probably smack me in the back of the head and ask me what the (frank) I was thinking lol
- Dozzer

If you had already made $76M US they might not be so quick to smack you. ROR has made enough to take a little less if it means being where he wants to be to finish out his career. I have no idea what he wants but he doesn’t have to go anywhere he doesn’t want.

If you had already made $76M US they might not be so quick to smack you. ROR has made enough to take a little less if it means being where he wants to be to finish out his career. I have no idea what he wants but he doesn’t have to go anywhere he doesn’t want.
- Canada Cup

There’s no guarantee he’s wanted in Toronto.

I’d keep him around for the right price, tho. But he should be bottom six. This whole team is fücked. JT awful value, Murray awful value, Brodie meh, Nylander too soft…

Easy.

Who - Kyle Clifford
What - A pack of fuzzy peaches

I’m thinking I call Tree on behalf of all Leafs fans, yes?
- Big23Questions

i must’ve missed this🤦‍♂️

if clifftard, the wayne train and/or fat matt would’ve been given a regular shift alongside the corpse 4, we’d have a cup by now🤦🏿‍♂️

but we had to go with little bois that could get pointz and put the stick across the knees and avoid eye contact after freddy or glassthews got run🤦‍♂️

what a (frank)ing joke🤦🏿‍♂️

treedying n shammy will just run it back and we’ll be left with poop, no toilet paper and more useless merch🤦‍♂️

I’m sorry but I will not believe in the buyout until it happens. A trade maybe or a last Muzzin-esque chance but not a buyout.
- Dozzer

I'd be willing to bet if they can't trade him for a reasonable cost they buy him out. Teams in win now mode care about now. Buying him out creates 4 million in cap space for this year, next year is a next year problem and they cross that bridge when they get there.

I can't see any cash rich team getting hung up on 2 million bucks down the line when they can help themselves now. A million things can change between now and then.

Hopefully Murray's lawnmower does the right thing this summer.

Wishing his lawn the very best.

No.

Toronto and Philly will not be dealing with each other.
- Glak18

And why is that?

And why is that?
- HonkyTonkMan

Briere finally made the move that shows he’s willing to tear it down. Finally not trying to patch that flat anymore. I’d think he’d deal with anyone offering fair picks and cap relief in two years time (or sooner).

But that’s the thing, too. We can’t take back one of your big name guys you may need to say goodbye to. No point in giving this chimp of a franchise the keys to a Porsche. We’re not ready. Picks and contracts with 2 years or less, please.

By the way, Canada. This isn’t the type of smoke we like from you guys.

Briere finally made the move that shows he’s willing to tear it down. Finally not trying to patch that flat anymore. I’d think he’d deal with anyone offering fair picks and cap relief in two years time (or sooner).

But that’s the thing, too. We can’t take back one of your big name guys you may need to say goodbye to. No point in giving this chimp of a franchise the keys to a Porsche. We’re not ready. Picks and contracts with 2 years or less, please.

By the way, Canada. This isn’t the type of smoke we like from you guys.
- Hesh_

If it's bad down there...just imagine up here

The Leafs don't have the picks to make this worthwhile for Philly.