He'll get deals man. He's a star in his own right and he's handsome.

Y'all need to remember his grandma loves the Leafs too. Gotta factor that in.
- Zezel

Hell, my grandparents loved the leafs too but if I was good enough to play in the NHL (not even close just to be clear lol) and they found out I took a cheaper contract just “to be a leaf” they’d probably smack me in the back of the head and ask me what the (frank) I was thinking lol

I sincerely don’t mind riding the guy as a backup. The love for Samsonov is too high imo. He’s not taking another cheap deal either is my bet. That one in Toronto was his second in a row. The year before he got a 1 year $2 mill contract.
- Dozzer

Based on comparisons his arb award is 2.6 - 3.4. One or two years of that is better than 4.7M of Murray.

I'm afraid they are going to get outbid on the guys they'd really like to resign.. Who had nice playoff runs... Schenn - ROR - Acciari just so many other teams that have the space and needs for them.

- dozerD10

Schenn I can see sticking around since he was drafted by the leafs but otherwise I completely agree with you.

Pervert
- GreatGigInTheSky

For sure on that... Marriage will do that ..

Based on comparisons his arb award is 2.6 - 3.4. One or two years of that is better than 4.7M of Murray.
- The Law

Actually no because buying Murray out would cost a $2 mill cap hit in 2024-25

Try to trade him or roll with him as the backup.

Actually no because buying Murray out would cost a $2 mill cap hit in 2024-25

Try to trade him or roll with him as the backup.
- Dozzer

Maybe they walk from both but they do not run Murray and Woll next year ...that's two huge question marks. That's crazy.

Maybe they walk from both but they do not run Murray and Woll next year ...that's two huge question marks. That's crazy.
- The Law

To be perfectly fair I do think the leafs will find a trade partner for Murray, my curiousity is the cost… a pick? A prospect? Both?

LeBrun on Insider Trading talking Dubois: “Our understanding is Pat Brisson has informed the Winnipeg Jets that his client isn’t inclined to sign an extension this summer not even a 1-yr bridge, Pat Brisson would like to work with the Jets on a trade for Dubois to another team”

_________________________

Shocking

As far as Schenn and Acciari are concerned, if the Leafs offer (if they offer) is close to what other teams could be offering, they'll pick the Leafs. I think both of them have made that clear.

ROR for sure will be a lot harder.
- GreatGigInTheSky

i can’t believe that we’re debating whether or not to treedying should keep the same corpse 4 shammyplan in place so they can figure out how to be like the 2018 crapitals when ovie finally won a cup🤦‍♂️

buston glassthews is the legitimate number one center that we’ve been pining for since Sundin👊🏿

greedy willi and pencil neck female dog held out and didn’t feel like skating for the maple leafs until they got more hundreds of thousands 🤦‍♂️

defense wins championships and we could get a nice haul for one or two of these greedy little fashion plates👊🏿

Hell, my grandparents loved the leafs too but if I was good enough to play in the NHL (not even close just to be clear lol) and they found out I took a cheaper contract just “to be a leaf” they’d probably smack me in the back of the head and ask me what the (frank) I was thinking lol
- Dozzer

It seems you have mean grandparents.
His may not be

Actually no because buying Murray out would cost a $2 mill cap hit in 2024-25

Try to trade him or roll with him as the backup.
- Dozzer

Cant afford to keep him
Hes getting traded or bought out

To be perfectly fair I do think the leafs will find a trade partner for Murray, my curiousity is the cost… a pick? A prospect? Both?
- Dozzer

I think the ask in trade will be similar to the Mrazek dump. Murray and pick 28 for pick 36 from SJ, pick 38 from Arizona, or pick 41, 42, or 43 from Detroit.

Unless some team actually wants him for goalie upgrade reasons. Like one of the other teams that were apparently in on him last off-season.

Cant afford to keep him
Hes getting traded or bought out
- Fakepartofme

We shall see.

I think the ask in trade will be similar to the Mrazek dump. Murray and pick 28 for pick 36 from SJ, pick 38 from Arizona, or pick 41, 42, or 43 from Detroit.

Unless some team actually wants him for goalie upgrade reasons. Like one of the other teams that were apparently in on him last off-season.
- GreatGigInTheSky

Oh if he’s moved it will be a dump now. A team can’t exactly choose to roll with an AHL guy during the playoffs because the NHLer was too “rusty” and somehow manage to keep a team interested in trading for him. My main concern is the price won’t sit with the new GM, but I won’t pretend to know either.

To be perfectly fair I do think the leafs will find a trade partner for Murray, my curiousity is the cost… a pick? A prospect? Both?
- Dozzer

Lets hope Kyle continues his affection for the things of his past.

Leafs could also offer to eat 25% of Murray to unload him. That penalty would save them from the $2M next year.

But for me ..the $2M penalty next year is still better than keeping him. Woll at 700k for the next 2 years helps offset.

Lets hope Kyle continues his affection for the things of his past.

Leafs could also offer to eat 25% of Murray to unload him. That penalty would save them from the $2M next year.

But for me ..the $2M penalty next year is still better than keeping him. Woll at 700k for the next 2 years helps offset.
- The Law

Banking on the cap increase that year without positivity is damn risky. To keep Matthews and Nylander they’ll need to be certain of retaining the space needed. That $2 mill ding could hurt more then just riding with the guy if necessary.

And let’s face it, the leafs proved with Muzzin they’ll continue to try someone until they openly agree to call it the end and tbh I can see that happening as well.

I think the ask in trade will be similar to the Mrazek dump. Murray and pick 28 for pick 36 from SJ, pick 38 from Arizona, or pick 41, 42, or 43 from Detroit.

Unless some team actually wants him for goalie upgrade reasons. Like one of the other teams that were apparently in on him last off-season.
- GreatGigInTheSky

Peterson and his 5Mx2 (11M in cash) cost the Kings a 2nd rounder, a good prospect and they had to absorb $2M in cap space for two years.

Mrazek and his 3.8Mx2 (8.6M in cash) cost the Leafs the 13 spot drop in the draft ..which I think worked out to be about equivalent to a 2nd round pick.

Murray would be 4.65M (6M in cash). Probably should be similar to Mrazek or even a little cheaper. Murray also has that M-NTC.

i can’t believe that we’re debating whether or not to treedying should keep the same corpse 4 shammyplan in place so they can figure out how to be like the 2018 crapitals when ovie finally won a cup🤦‍♂️

buston glassthews is the legitimate number one center that we’ve been pining for since Sundin👊🏿

greedy willi and pencil neck female dog held out and didn’t feel like skating for the maple leafs until they got more hundreds of thousands 🤦‍♂️

defense wins championships and we could get a nice haul for one or two of these greedy little fashion plates👊🏿
- Skalapy

🤔

Banking on the cap increase that year without positivity is damn risky. To keep Matthews and Nylander they’ll need to be certain of retaining the space needed. That $2 mill ding could hurt more then just riding with the guy if necessary.

And let’s face it, the leafs proved with Muzzin they’ll continue to try someone until they openly agree to call it the end and tbh I can see that happening as well.
- Dozzer

I mean they're making moves with greater knowledge of the cap then us so I don't think it's as risky as you and i might perceive. They know what's up. And the cap going "up" to 88M (or more) for 24' is almost certain and it isn't new growth per se ...it's simply going back to normal without the massive repayment (to the owners) of the escrow "loan".

Actually no because buying Murray out would cost a $2 mill cap hit in 2024-25

Try to trade him or roll with him as the backup.
- Dozzer

They will either trade him or buy him out. I'm positive that $4.7m won't be on the roster. The cap is going up by at least $6m in the subsequent season. If they have to move Sammy and ride Woll after another season of him, they'll do it.

I mean they're making moves with greater knowledge of the cap then us so I don't think it's as risky as you and i might perceive. They know what's up. And the cap going "up" to 88M (or more) for 24' is almost certain and it isn't new growth per se ...it's simply going back to normal without the massive repayment (to the owners) of the escrow "loan".
- The Law

Sure, but it’s safe to say most of it will be used on Matthews and Nylander. I’m guessing $14 and $9+ to keep them.

They will either trade him or buy him out. I'm positive that $4.7m won't be on the roster. The cap is going up by at least $6m in the subsequent season. If they have to move Sammy and ride Woll after another season of him, they'll do it.
- Monkeypunk

I’m sorry but I will not believe in the buyout until it happens. A trade maybe or a last Muzzin-esque chance but not a buyout.

When discussing Samsonov, let’s look at some basic comparables – I don’t think he’s coming back on another show-me deal.

Samsonov started 40 games which puts him 24th among NHL starters.
For the purposes of consideration, I’m looking at the top 30 in starts which includes Gustavsson in Minnesota, who similarly had a very strong season. The others including in this grouping below Samsonov did not have particularly strong or necessarily healthy seasons (Grubauer, Montembeault, Mrazek, Kahkoken and Korpisalo); I preface this just so it is understood that the dataset used is consistent, arbitrary in nature and not altered.

Consistency is obviously key among goalies, so avoiding bad starts and having quality starts is a basis for consideration. These stats are heavily influenced by the team’s performance, but can provide indicators of the goalie’s consistency. Out of 30 considered goalies, Samsonov was 13th in bad starts and 5th in good starts. The best goalie in this category for both was Ullmark. Korpisalo and Hellebuyck were 2 and 3in bad starts with Gustavsson and Sorokin on the good start side.

Then I thought about stealing games? How many times did these goalies have a GSAx greater than 2 in a single game which should be a key advantage (teams won 153 of the 205 games where this happened in regulation or overtime, and many of the 52 other games were decided in OT or the SO). The Leafs as a team had 12 of these games, Sammy had 7 of them (Murray 2, Woll 2, and Kallgren 1) and the Leafs did go 12-0 in these games. Sammy was 6th in terms of the percentage of games he “stole”. Sorokin, Gustavsson, Hellebuyck, Saros and Oettinger are in positions 1-5 (for poops and giggles, the worst of the measured goalies were Mrazek, Kahkoen and Korpisalo).

Individually, Sammy had the best HD Save Percentage among all starters, and the 2nd worst MD Save percentage! His LD Save Percentage was 5th best. Some of these I’ve always maintained are variable with a team’s style. I find the Leafs will collapse towards the net forcing more, but often better MD shots which probably led to Sammy’s weak numbers – Murray’s weren’t much better.

Ultimately this past year for Samsonov is one where if the Leafs attempt to get Samsonov to show them on a cheap deal, I think he’ll go to arbitration and get a significant increase in pay.

By the way, the rumoured acquisitions Gibson (too many bad starts, not many good starts, and 8th in stolen games; all save percentages near the bottom) and Hart (same as Gibson, but slightly better in each category (7th in stolen games); above average HD, average LD, and below average MD) are more expensive and haven't performed as well as Samsonov.

Sure, but it’s safe to say most of it will be used on Matthews and Nylander. I’m guessing $14 and $9+ to keep them.
- Dozzer

Agreed, if they keep both of them they need to budget ~ $13 and $9 for them. That's manageable if they want them. Brodie will be up and due for a dramatic decrease.

Lots of change between now and then I'm sure.

ROR easily makes the difference up and more in sponsorships
- Fakepartofme

Tim Hortons?