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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Where Do The Leafs Go From Here???
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The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

May 23 @ 10:08 AM ET
Interesting NY Post (Brooks) is reporting that Marty Walsh newly appointed head of the NHL PA is about to have his first meeting with Bettman. Walsh will advise that the PA will not agree to any increase to the cap beyond 6% per year over the next 3 years. So, a cap of $100m 3 years from now.

Bettman will likely counter with a proposal for an even higher cap if PA can agree to 84 game regular season with cuts in the training camp and exhibition schedule. Translates into a top salary range above $15m for the best players negotiating new deals. MacKinnon is currently $12.6m and McDavid is $12.5m.

Theoretically teams would be able to offer a max deal deal of 20% of cap. So, think in terms of a UFA offer of $20m for a 30 year old McDavid.

This is not a bad time for some teams to think about how they rebalance their line up.

Leafs should act prudently. This is a time for fine turning. Not a series of rash changes.

- spatso


You take a lot of heat around here ...deservedly. But this is a pretty interesting post. The P.A.'s willingness to expand the Cap this summer is good news. And that they want to limit growth to 6% per year might signal that the growth is much bigger than we've read/talked about. They want to limit to reduce escrow.

Bett/Daly told us we'd be ~88 for the coming season IF the escrow were paid off. And then back to normal growth. Historically that was about 3-4M per year. So limiting to 6% ($5M per year) would be pretty cool.

82.5 - 87.5 - 92.5 - 98.25.

If true people need to set their expectations on the next batch of contracts.

McDavids high water mark of 16.67% is going to be worth 16M on his next deal ...and that's if he doesn't ask for a raise. Agents will have that on their minds.
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: “Give me Point, Cirelli and Paul all day against anybody.” Mr. Cooper , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

May 23 @ 10:09 AM ET
Exhibit "A" ....why the internet is a dangerous place.
- The Law

That’s just what they want you to think
mr.sir
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Vancouver Island, BC
Joined: 01.18.2015

May 23 @ 10:13 AM ET
AHL champion Providence
NHL champion Carolina
NHL finalist Philadelphia
NHL finalist Nashville
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

May 23 @ 10:29 AM ET
I do wonder if there is smoke with Armstrong.

From his comments to Lebrun it seems like this would be his dream opportunity.

- Santo_44


He's under contract for 3 or 4 more years, I believe. I read the LeBrun article and thought it was a real long shot. Now the Blues are possibly entering a rebuild, and if they are going rebuild vs retool, he might have a case to make with his boss, but if it's a retool, I'd rather have a guy with his pedigree around.

His draft record in Dallas wasn't that impressive, but his draft record in St. Louis has been excellent.

Similarly, you could say that with the Stars his trading record wasn't too hot - I think maybe his best trade was the acquisition of Ribeiro for Niinimaa, but there are a number of head scratchers (sending Nieuwendyk and Langebrunner to the Devils for Arnott and a 1st, that was later flipped for 35 year old Tugnutt to serve has Turco's backup is a notable example); he also flipped a lot of picks at the draft table and rarely came out ahead. Judging by Dallas' draft record there, it could have just been poor scouting?

His trade history with St. Louis is better, but not by a massive margin (he acquired Brayden Schenn, O'Reilly, Faulk. There's a lot of rough trades in there - trading away Oshie, giving Buffalo a "treasure trove of assets" for Ryan Miller at the TDL, trading up to get Tage Thompson only to trade him in the O'Reilly deal - who was the only decent part of that deal in the end, so it got both teams what they needed, but losing Thompson has to hurt . . .

GM'ing is a hard thing to evaluate because they are all full of mistakes that are easy to see in retrospect. On paper Armstrong doesn't look that much better than anyone else - but one year - one year where he was a hot Jordan Binnington away from trading everyone away - and he is now a fantastic candidate.




GreatGigInTheSky
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: "Yeah, Garth is a tool"- Garf, ON
Joined: 06.12.2017

May 23 @ 10:29 AM ET
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

May 23 @ 10:33 AM ET
You take a lot of heat around here ...deservedly. But this is a pretty interesting post. The P.A.'s willingness to expand the Cap this summer is good news. And that they want to limit growth to 6% per year might signal that the growth is much bigger than we've read/talked about. They want to limit to reduce escrow.

Bett/Daly told us we'd be ~88 for the coming season IF the escrow were paid off. And then back to normal growth. Historically that was about 3-4M per year. So limiting to 6% ($5M per year) would be pretty cool.

82.5 - 87.5 - 92.5 - 98.25.

If true people need to set their expectations on the next batch of contracts.

McDavids high water mark of 16.67% is going to be worth 16M on his next deal ...and that's if he doesn't ask for a raise. Agents will have that on their minds.

- The Law


Noting that the $3 - $4m growth was basically an average increase of around 3.5% for comparable purposes. The cap was very inconsistent in growth previously - some years spiking up 7% and some years holding at 1.5% - well before the pandemic and escrow management considerations.

The growth increases, obviously, as the cap itself increases - so 6% over three years would be good - if you can get some people locked in before it does grow. The next batch of contracts can't consider what isn't there, but they can shorten the term if they want to maximize their career earnings.
senstroll
Location: New Fan, Needs to watch Ballet, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

May 23 @ 10:34 AM ET
I think it will be more telling than an optimistic process initially. If, as reported, Shanahan was blocking Dubas from making moves and forcing him to make others, then the new GM will either want more autonomy - which might mean Shanahan refuses to hire a more experienced GM - or they will be less experienced allowing Shanahan to continue to pull the strings.

If you're an up and comer like Tulsky, this is definitely bright lights / big city, but it's not necessarily enacting your plan. The other thing is that Tulsky is a very bright guy, but he might be better suited to the role is doing now - super analyst - and letting another guy deal with the other GMs and Free Agent negotiations and so on.

I don't know what deals Shanahan blocked nor what deals he forced, so it's hard to be too judgemental (what if he was behind all the good moves?), but he is either the GM or the GM is the GM.

- Monkeypunk


this is the write up on the canes site.
He seems to have his fingers in everything.

Eric Tulsky
Assistant General Manager

Eric Tulsky is in his eighth season with the Hurricanes and his second as assistant general manager. As assistant general manager, Tulsky is involved in all player personnel decisions, oversees pro scouting and the team's hockey information department, and assists with player contract negotiations, salary cap compliance, and other hockey-related matters. Tulsky previously served as vice president of hockey management and strategy.


what do I know though.

Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

May 23 @ 10:36 AM ET
He's under contract for 3 or 4 more years, I believe. I read the LeBrun article and thought it was a real long shot. Now the Blues are possibly entering a rebuild, and if they are going rebuild vs retool, he might have a case to make with his boss, but if it's a retool, I'd rather have a guy with his pedigree around.

His draft record in Dallas wasn't that impressive, but his draft record in St. Louis has been excellent.

Similarly, you could say that with the Stars his trading record wasn't too hot - I think maybe his best trade was the acquisition of Ribeiro for Niinimaa, but there are a number of head scratchers (sending Nieuwendyk and Langebrunner to the Devils for Arnott and a 1st, that was later flipped for 35 year old Tugnutt to serve has Turco's backup is a notable example); he also flipped a lot of picks at the draft table and rarely came out ahead. Judging by Dallas' draft record there, it could have just been poor scouting?

His trade history with St. Louis is better, but not by a massive margin (he acquired Brayden Schenn, O'Reilly, Faulk. There's a lot of rough trades in there - trading away Oshie, giving Buffalo a "treasure trove of assets" for Ryan Miller at the TDL, trading up to get Tage Thompson only to trade him in the O'Reilly deal - who was the only decent part of that deal in the end, so it got both teams what they needed, but losing Thompson has to hurt . . .

GM'ing is a hard thing to evaluate because they are all full of mistakes that are easy to see in retrospect. On paper Armstrong doesn't look that much better than anyone else - but one year - one year where he was a hot Jordan Binnington away from trading everyone away - and he is now a fantastic candidate.

- Monkeypunk


If he wants to be here and can handle the pressure I am cool with it. He seems to be the perfect candidate but it is unlikely with his term left on his deal.

For me I just want a guy that won't make a stupid Hall for Larsson like trade. The perspective can not be "we can not win with this guy so lets get the best we can get."
It should be "lets put us in the best position to win the cup and since I have no emotional ties here I am open to anything and anyone."
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

May 23 @ 10:37 AM ET
this is the write up on the canes site.
He seems to have his fingers in everything.



what do I know though.

- senstroll


Get Tulsky and do a Marner main piece for Aho main piece.
Aaron_85
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 04.22.2014

May 23 @ 10:48 AM ET
This is shaping up to be the least-interesting final I have seen ever. I can't think of 4 teams that I am less interested in. Why am I still here?

lI guess I am here to watch teams get steamrolled by dirty hits and a hot goalie.

Let me make a prediction : Assuming Florida advances, we get to see Vegas or Dallas fail to set the tone early, then we watch Bennett/Tkachuk/Gudas go UFC on anyone in reach, lather rinse repeat.

- GalacticStone


The funny part to me in all this is they have a highly talented Barkov and (frank)ing Bennett is getting more praise/talk than him. Why does the NHL want losers in the regular season to be talked about during the playoffs so much?!
Aaron_85
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 04.22.2014

May 23 @ 10:48 AM ET

- GreatGigInTheSky


Seems like a professional
senstroll
Location: New Fan, Needs to watch Ballet, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

May 23 @ 10:55 AM ET
Get Tulsky and do a Marner main piece for Aho main piece.
- Santo_44


dont see how that helps really.
he will be a ufa. may save a little $$ but...what about the playoff toughness thing
GreatGigInTheSky
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: "Yeah, Garth is a tool"- Garf, ON
Joined: 06.12.2017

May 23 @ 10:59 AM ET
So the deal is an about-to-be UFA floater winger who will ask for 9+M a year for a cost controlled top five pick, likely top six centre who they haven't even really seen play yet... plus a first? I'm all for dreaming but let's come back to earth a bit here. You can talk about trading for Lafrenière like this, he's more of a known commodity. But you simply don't flip top picks before seeing what they can do in this era.
- Bartacus


People really gotta update their player profile assessment on Nylander. Because you're well off on what kinda player he currently is.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

May 23 @ 11:00 AM ET
dont see how that helps really.
he will be a ufa. may save a little $$ but...what about the playoff toughness thing

- senstroll


If the Leafs are trading Nylander, AM, or Marner for playoff toughness they are losing the trade.

Depends on Aho's ask, but he is a C who can move JT to the wing.

Saves 3M on the cap. Leafs have cap space.

AM, Aho down the middle and you surround them with guys who can create space.

Improve the D.



It is a hell of a lot better than these trade Marner for a 2nd line winger plus a 3rd line winger you could just sign in free agency.
GreatGigInTheSky
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: "Yeah, Garth is a tool"- Garf, ON
Joined: 06.12.2017

May 23 @ 11:02 AM ET
ill hold off any optimism until we know who is the next GM.
some of the names floating out there is ...cringe. but i know that doesnt mean much..just media throwing darts.

It sounds like tree living may be the one they are targeting?
I personally would like Tulsky.

- senstroll


Pridham, Tulsky, and if they can pry him out of St. Louis; Armstrong.

Everyone else can kick rocks. I want no part of them being the Leafs GM.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

May 23 @ 11:02 AM ET
People really gotta update their player profile assessment on Nylander. Because you're well off on what kinda player he currently is.
- GreatGigInTheSky


The perceived value of any of the core is absolutely ridiculous right now.

On the bright side IF they get a smart GM in here and an actual deal can be made I think a lot of people who seem to think they are giving away these guys for nothing will be quite happy with the return.
shack67
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: NS
Joined: 07.05.2015

May 23 @ 11:06 AM ET
Pridham, Tulsky, and if they can pry him out of St. Louis; Armstrong.

Everyone else can kick rocks. I want no part of them being the Leafs GM.

- GreatGigInTheSky

Treliving the guy. That’s my best guess.
senstroll
Location: New Fan, Needs to watch Ballet, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

May 23 @ 11:07 AM ET
If the Leafs are trading Nylander, AM, or Marner for playoff toughness they are losing the trade.

Depends on Aho's ask, but he is a C who can move JT to the wing.

Saves 3M on the cap. Leafs have cap space.

AM, Aho down the middle and you surround them with guys who can create space.

Improve the D.



It is a hell of a lot better than these trade Marner for a 2nd line winger plus a 3rd line winger you could just sign in free agency.

- Santo_44


how is that possible?
right now they are 2.5mil difference, and I dont see Aho getting less as a pending UFA


anyway I dont see how that really moves the needle much at all.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

May 23 @ 11:12 AM ET
how is that possible?
right now they are 2.5mil difference, and I dont see Aho getting less as a pending UFA


anyway I dont see how that really moves the needle much at all.

- senstroll


Okay they save 2.5M.

Move the needle? Do you think they are fleecing someone?

Look, if they trade any superstar player it's not to fleece someone and move the needle.

Getting a C to move JT to the wing is important.

They also should not trade any of the core 4 to get worse.

GreatGigInTheSky
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: "Yeah, Garth is a tool"- Garf, ON
Joined: 06.12.2017

May 23 @ 11:12 AM ET
Seems like a professional
- Aaron_85


Took the high road, that's for sure.
Ratsreign
Florida Panthers
Location: Mo can stay awhile, FL
Joined: 10.27.2017

May 23 @ 11:13 AM ET
They have been getting away with more than a few.. Aho was mugged all night - I counted at least 4 blatant calls refs just “whatevered” against him..

And the Ghost at the end.. crazy -

Not saying they woulda scored on Bob he’s on a heater of all heaters … basically every puck finds him.

- dozerD10

Ghost at the end.....puck was moved and ref was turning his head to follow the puck up the ice. He didn’t see it, plain and simple, he didn’t see it. He was following the puck as he should’ve been. He missed the stick up high, and he also missed the Emmy award winning performance by ghost. And then, when ghost slides into the ref’s legs (like he may have been dead), the ref blows the play down, as the puck is traveling on its way into the empty net.
They missed calls both ways last night, as they always do. Amazing how some choose to only acknowledge one side of it. Cousins got toe of a blade jabbed into his yap, bleeding even, but no call. Forsling got an elbow right in the face, no call... they miss/let things go nightly, for both teams. One would think those from the Mecca would know how playoff hockey goes, eh? Like a freaking Excuses factory.
senstroll
Location: New Fan, Needs to watch Ballet, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

May 23 @ 11:14 AM ET
Okay they save 2.5M.

Move the needle? Do you think they are fleecing someone?

Look, if they trade any superstar player it's not to fleece someone and move the needle.

Getting a C to move JT to the wing is important.

They also should not trade any of the core 4 to get worse.

- Santo_44


move the needle, meaning...playoff success. conference finals, Stanley cup..stuff like that. swapping Marner for Aho. I dont see it

also. its 2.5 for 1 season. then he gets a raise or walks for nothing
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

May 23 @ 11:16 AM ET
move the needle, meaning...playoff success. conference finals, Stanley cup..stuff like that. swapping Marner for Aho. I dont see it

also. its 2.5 for 1 season. then he gets a raise or walks for nothing

- senstroll


If you thunk a singular trade is the secret sauce to a Stanley Cup I think you are out to lunch.

Yes, you have to pay players that are good.
Ratsreign
Florida Panthers
Location: Mo can stay awhile, FL
Joined: 10.27.2017

May 23 @ 11:16 AM ET
This is shaping up to be the least-interesting final I have seen ever. I can't think of 4 teams that I am less interested in. Why am I still here?

lI guess I am here to watch teams get steamrolled by dirty hits and a hot goalie.

Let me make a prediction : Assuming Florida advances, we get to see Vegas or Dallas fail to set the tone early, then we watch Bennett/Tkachuk/Gudas go UFC on anyone in reach, lather rinse repeat.

- GalacticStone


Says the guy who drools over the antics of Fat Pat and Corey Perry......

hunglikeapuck
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Punta Cana
Joined: 07.14.2009

May 23 @ 11:18 AM ET
Marc Bergevin
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