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Forums :: Blog World :: Brad Lohr: Size does matter but it all depends on what you do with it.
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sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

May 22 @ 1:49 PM ET
that's fair. it's also reality. If Kevo wanted to swap those bottoms out, he'd have done it, with or without Bishop's cap hit. It's clear that wasn't his objective. That's the point to criticize him on.

btw, Bryson had quality metrics the season prior and Joker was gelling well with Power in a small sample. Bryson declined hard this year.

And for the love of brown liquor stop (everyone) comparing us to the Panthers.

Lastly, have a little respect for Broads and his Revolutionary GM blog.

- TheSabresTaco

Why is this unfair?

Over an 82 game sample size they had 1 more point.

Why is this playoff sample more relevant?

Now woupd I have wagered we’d make it to the ECF, of course not? But Florida was heavy underdogs
Swedish_Jesus
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 07.02.2019

May 22 @ 1:52 PM ET
it's unequivocally irrelevant. The trade happened a month before free agency and gave them the flexibility to get a guy or not get a guy, or trade a guy in season for picks if they were bad again.

If I understand you correctly, you think he was some obstacle that needed to be cleared, like they chose him instead of an active body.

No. They could have had both and chose Bishop.

You need to ask the right question. Not why is Ben Bishop here. It's "Why didn't they have the foresight to believe they were better than they thought they'd be?"

- TheSabresTaco


To be fair, as optimistic as I was that they would play meaningful games down the stretch, not even I could have expected the production Tage, Skinner, Tuch, Dahlin, Power, Mitts, and Quinn had at the various stages of their career arcs.

Hindsight bias is a hell of a drug.

Cozens’ breakout season I had expected but I think even he surpassed my expectations
Boss34
Buffalo Sabres
Location: BUFFALO , NY
Joined: 12.03.2015

May 22 @ 1:54 PM ET
They don't always get better. Sometimes they never do, sometimes they regress.

Girgs regressed and never met expectations. Joker hasn't improved since he got here. Krebs development is way below expectations. Jost is 10th OA who got waived. Tage looked like a bust and took off at 24.

UPL isn't on a good path. Still extremely inconsistent and his second half was just plain bad.

- Lunaion


Asplund smelled, you called him a "glue guy" .

Mid first rounder playing over 600 games for the team that drafted him, I'd say he hit expectations.

Upl was a rookie and a pretty highly rated prospect.
The Sabres needed to and probably still need to give him another look. Just an opinion.

If they can get a 2nd and sign a decent 1B vet goalie, I'd be happy.

The fact that tage got better, proves my point. Guy's need a look see at the nhl level. They develop at different times.


Hatboro_Swords
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Next year is gonna be 05/06 all over again, PA
Joined: 07.30.2010

May 22 @ 1:56 PM ET
Hey All,

New convos going on in the New Blog.
Swedish_Jesus
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 07.02.2019

May 22 @ 1:58 PM ET
Why is this unfair?

Over an 82 game sample size they had 1 more point.

Why is this playoff sample more relevant?

Now woupd I have wagered we’d make it to the ECF, of course not? But Florida was heavy underdogs

- sbroads24


When your goalie saves 18 goals above expected in 12 games, you’re gonna go far

Could we have expected Levi to put up those numbers ?

Florida is as lucky as they are talented.

On top of Bobrovsky turning into Jesus Christ himself they got the following:

Tuch skate blade offside goal, Chicago beating Pittsburgh, playing Boston in the first round Sans healthy Bergeron and Krejci for most of the series.

Any possible bounce they could get, they got.

This is the second series in a row they gone up 2-0 in a series in which they were outplayed in both games
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

May 22 @ 2:12 PM ET
Funny, lon brings up Cernak and all of a sudden there's a bunch of Trade proposals on CapFriendly.
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I AM MY OWN DAMN SOURCE!, NY
Joined: 11.04.2010

May 22 @ 2:13 PM ET
To be fair, as optimistic as I was that they would play meaningful games down the stretch, not even I could have expected the production Tage, Skinner, Tuch, Dahlin, Power, Mitts, and Quinn had at the various stages of their career arcs.

Hindsight bias is a hell of a drug.

Cozens’ breakout season I had expected but I think even he surpassed my expectations

- Swedish_Jesus


Which is part of my frustration of “well we will just be better next year because it’s another year of development”

They had 8 players have career best years. That’s kind of unheard of. Can they repeat on those numbers or will some regress while others take another step? Will it be flat?

It’s a complete unknown. It’s the old “strike while the irons hit”
Ratsreign
Florida Panthers
Location: Mo can stay awhile, FL
Joined: 10.27.2017

May 22 @ 2:18 PM ET
Why is this unfair?

Over an 82 game sample size they had 1 more point.

Why is this playoff sample more relevant?

Now woupd I have wagered we’d make it to the ECF, of course not? But Florida was heavy underdogs

- sbroads24

Panthers were expected to be much better than 1 point above the Sabres.
(Preseason odds Buff +10,000 and predicted 78 points while FL was +900 and 105 predicted points) *
FL had new coach, big personnel changes, and a string of injuries through the year. (I think they didn’t have their opening night line up all healthy at same time until February or something crazy like that). Panthers way under achieved what was expected. They got it together at the start of the new year and made the run to the playoff spot. It was evident in every game vs Boston that FL could hang with, and even beat them if they could put solid 60 minute effort in. Point totals aside, just watch the regular season games between the two and you could see the gulf between them wasn’t really that wide.
The comparison is a bit disingenuous when you consider. FL isn’t some out of nowhere, fluke making the playoffs team. They’re not Cinderella. Even though their playoffs so far have been magical.

* https://www.hockey-refere..._2023_preseason_odds.html
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

May 22 @ 2:18 PM ET
Why is this unfair?

Over an 82 game sample size they had 1 more point.

Why is this playoff sample more relevant?

Now woupd I have wagered we’d make it to the ECF, of course not? But Florida was heavy underdogs

- sbroads24


The logic doesn't carry. Florida was as good as Buffalo but killed off the two best teams in the league. I think that's as good a sign as ever that the regular season and the playoffs is two different games. Just because the Sabres and Panthers had similar records does not indicate the theoretical ability the Sabres should also beat the Bruins and the Leafs.

I guess I just don't have faith that they'd win or have the age and ruggedness to beat these guys like the Panthers could. Levi would have to goalie them, hard. Sure as (frank) wouldn't be the other 3.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

May 22 @ 2:20 PM ET
When your goalie saves 18 goals above expected in 12 games, you’re gonna go far

Could we have expected Levi to put up those numbers ?

Florida is as lucky as they are talented.

On top of Bobrovsky turning into Jesus Christ himself they got the following:

Tuch skate blade offside goal, Chicago beating Pittsburgh, playing Boston in the first round Sans healthy Bergeron and Krejci for most of the series.

Any possible bounce they could get, they got.

This is the second series in a row they gone up 2-0 in a series in which they were outplayed in both games

- Swedish_Jesus

We need to stop saying everything is good or bad luck. It's going to drive me nuts.

Not every hot goalie is getting lucky, not every guy on a goalless streak is unlucky. Guys have good nights, bad nights, hot streaks and cold streaks.

You're attempting to change the definition of luck
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

May 22 @ 2:20 PM ET
To be fair, as optimistic as I was that they would play meaningful games down the stretch, not even I could have expected the production Tage, Skinner, Tuch, Dahlin, Power, Mitts, and Quinn had at the various stages of their career arcs.

Hindsight bias is a hell of a drug.

Cozens’ breakout season I had expected but I think even he surpassed my expectations

- Swedish_Jesus


And this is why Kevo stood pat. imo.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

May 22 @ 2:21 PM ET
To be fair, as optimistic as I was that they would play meaningful games down the stretch, not even I could have expected the production Tage, Skinner, Tuch, Dahlin, Power, Mitts, and Quinn had at the various stages of their career arcs.

Hindsight bias is a hell of a drug.

Cozens’ breakout season I had expected but I think even he surpassed my expectations

- Swedish_Jesus

So when this was evident by like game 15-20, why was there no attempt to fix anything?

This isn't football where 1-2 wins/losses in either direction makes or breaks a season
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

May 22 @ 2:23 PM ET
Asplund smelled, you called him a "glue guy" .

Mid first rounder playing over 600 games for the team that drafted him, I'd say he hit expectations.

Upl was a rookie and a pretty highly rated prospect.
The Sabres needed to and probably still need to give him another look. Just an opinion.

If they can get a 2nd and sign a decent 1B vet goalie, I'd be happy.

The fact that tage got better, proves my point. Guy's need a look see at the nhl level. They develop at different times.

- Boss34


If Quinn regresses and sticks long term as a 4LW, you'll be happy?
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

May 22 @ 2:24 PM ET
Funny, lon brings up Cernak and all of a sudden there's a bunch of Trade proposals on CapFriendly.
- Buff36


sit on the bus with me. Murphy's in back, too.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

May 22 @ 2:25 PM ET
The logic doesn't carry. Florida was as good as Buffalo but killed off the two best teams in the league. I think that's as good a sign as ever that the regular season and the playoffs is two different games. Just because the Sabres and Panthers had similar records does not indicate the theoretical ability the Sabres should also beat the Bruins and the Leafs.

I guess I just don't have faith that they'd win or have the age and ruggedness to beat these guys like the Panthers could. Levi would have to goalie them, hard. Sure as (frank) wouldn't be the other 3.

- TheSabresTaco

You’re being quite hypocritical here.

Bostons regular season matters, making them an all time awesome team we couldnt have beat, but Florida’s regular season doesn’t matter?
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

May 22 @ 2:26 PM ET
sit on the bus with me. Murphy's in back, too.
- TheSabresTaco

Is there Beer or Brown Liquor
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

May 22 @ 2:29 PM ET
Which is part of my frustration of “well we will just be better next year because it’s another year of development”

They had 8 players have career best years. That’s kind of unheard of. Can they repeat on those numbers or will some regress while others take another step? Will it be flat?

It’s a complete unknown. It’s the old “strike while the irons hit”

- ImThatGuy


This team's entire foundation is based on the development of almost every currently contracted guy. Playing with 6 rookies (Krebs, Sam inc) is a valid reason to hedge a season. I understand the frustration of not doing more, but at this point right now, with everything we know now, Kevo must advance the agenda with an outside player or three. Also including that a lot of these guys are still growing and will, as a unit, improve overall from last season.

You don't need career years in offense to make the playoffs. Look at Carolina and Seattle. You do need more responsible players, and our guys are still learning that, like it or not.
Boss34
Buffalo Sabres
Location: BUFFALO , NY
Joined: 12.03.2015

May 22 @ 2:30 PM ET
If Quinn regresses and sticks long term as a 4LW, you'll be happy?
- Lunaion


Quinn is the most unlikely guy on the team to regress IMO.

Hope he plays 600+ in the blue and gold. That would really solidify his drafted position and recognize him as a "good draft pick."

So now you're saying "playing 600 games makes him a good pick ".

I'm saying yes, for a mid 1st rounder, not top tier player

Good, not great.

*top tier = top 5 or 6 forwards / top 10 player
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

May 22 @ 2:30 PM ET
Is there Beer or Brown Liquor
- Buff36


when is there not
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

May 22 @ 2:31 PM ET
You’re being quite hypocritical here.

Bostons regular season matters, making them an all time awesome team we couldnt have beat, but Florida’s regular season doesn’t matter?

- sbroads24


the point I'm making is that drawing conclusions from the regular season appears to be worthless.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

May 22 @ 2:32 PM ET
What I'm also trying to say, and this is an opinion, is that I feel Florida is much more equipped to play "playoff hockey" than the Sabres.
Boss34
Buffalo Sabres
Location: BUFFALO , NY
Joined: 12.03.2015

May 22 @ 2:35 PM ET
What I'm also trying to say, and this is an opinion, is that I feel Florida is much more equipped to play "playoff hockey" than the Sabres.
- TheSabresTaco


Killin' it today 🌮

👍
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

May 22 @ 2:43 PM ET
Quinn is the most unlikely guy on the team to regress IMO.

Hope he plays 600+ in the blue and gold. That would really solidify his drafted position and recognize him as a "good draft pick."

So now you're saying "playing 600 games makes him a good pick ".

I'm saying yes, for a mid 1st rounder, not top tier player

Good, not great.

*top tier = top 5 or 6 forwards / top 10 player

- Boss34


Did you expect Girgs to regress at the time? Not disappointed that he did? Longevity makes up for it?
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

May 22 @ 2:45 PM ET
Did you expect Girgs to regress at the time? Not disappointed that he did? Longevity makes up for it?
- Lunaion

I think guys will regress, but there will be development by some.

I think it evens itself out which means some sizable moves need to be made to take the next step
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

May 22 @ 2:45 PM ET
https://twitter.com/TheRo...A4k0IJBpKx4CGkTz6VOA&s=19

Delightful
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