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Forums :: Blog World :: Zach Jarom: Rest of The Season Expectations and Game Day: Hawks vs Wings
Author Message
TheTrob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Oak Park, IL
Joined: 04.14.2010

Mar 10 @ 12:12 PM ET
You are right, a draft pick only route would likely take an eternity with no guarantee of putting a consistent winner on the ice. But having significant cap space has considerable value too along with perhaps a willingness to take the plunge on a key UFA or 2 if they come along. What if an Auston Mathews or Sebastian Aho or P-L Dubois or Elias Lindholm suddenly became available?
- RickJ


Ahhh, the ultimate question. Cap space only lasts so long. SO, if you draft a Bedard, Nazar, Korchinski, etc. and they all pan out about the same time, they are on rookie deals and you have space to add veterans. You add a Matthews, Aho, etc. too early in the process, then you no longer have cap space when second/third contracts come along for your young stars. It takes a good mix to make it all work with the hard cap.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Mar 10 @ 12:15 PM ET
Agree. I think SY is a good GM as well and that the deification of his stewardship in both Detroit and Tampa is puzzling.

Posters lauded his ability to "sign guys for less" in Tampa. It's not like he was performing magic when TBL hadn't won one Cup let alone two. Guys got good deals but when they start winning Cups, doesn't take rocket science to figure the cost of doing business just went up.

He's drafted some good players in DET but it's not like the Yzerplan has borne any fruit. I do give him credit for recognizing his team wasn't ready to compete and punting on this season so he regained some lottery tickets with 1st round picks in a deep draft.

- HawkintheD


He is a good GM, but I think some of the magic was the favorable tax situation for players signing there as well. Not faulting him, just saying he had the luxury of probably saving a little bit on contract values to build the team.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Mar 10 @ 12:18 PM ET
I think Yzerman is a good GM, but I don't hold Detroit as some gold standard. What have they accomplished there? I don't get that coveting of them by many on here......
- SteveRain


Detroit to me were the gold standard back in the day, but in recent years they haven't been able to find many cornerstone players to build around. Not that they seem to choose bad players, but just haven't hit enough home runs on the prospect front to have the star power they need.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Mar 10 @ 12:21 PM ET
He is a good GM, but I think some of the magic was the favorable tax situation for players signing there as well. Not faulting him, just saying he had the luxury of probably saving a little bit on contract values to build the team.
- breadbag

Stamkos, Kuch, and Hedman also weren't cup winners yet when they signed those deals whereas Kane and Toews already won 2 cups. That helped Tampa kind of set a precedent for cap hits.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Mar 10 @ 12:23 PM ET
Detroit to me were the gold standard back in the day, but in recent years they haven't been able to find many cornerstone players to build around. Not that they seem to choose bad players, but just haven't hit enough home runs on the prospect front to have the star power they need.
- breadbag

The advantage of Hakan Andersson is no more now that just about every team heavily invests in European Scouting. Crazy how many coattails Holland rode to a "HOF" career.

In 2008, the Red Wings' top five post-season scorers (Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzén, Kronwall, and Hudler) had all been scouted and recommended to the team by Andersson.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Mar 10 @ 12:23 PM ET
This is only Year 4 for Yzerman.

The team he inherited was so bad that in Year 1 they posted the worst points percentage in the cap era.

He makes more good moves than bad moves but is by no means infallible. It would have been helpful if they had gotten any lotto luck or drafted high in a historically deep draft.

The concerns from most logical DET fans is that they bottomed out and didn't get any superstar talent in the process.

Patience and luck are the two biggest keys to a successful rebuild imo.

- Feds91Stammer


Don't disagree. The Hawks were in a similar situation when KD took over from Bowman.

I think like Bowman, SY's predecessor, Holland hung onto an aging Core too long and tried to band aid a team together. Hard to know when to pivot and always easier with the benefit of hindsight.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Mar 10 @ 12:25 PM ET
I think Yzerman is a good GM, but I don't hold Detroit as some gold standard. What have they accomplished there? I don't get that coveting of them by many on here......
- SteveRain


Greatest GM ever...........to not win a cup
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Mar 10 @ 12:25 PM ET
Don't disagree. The Hawks were in a similar situation when KD took over from Bowman.

I think like Bowman, SY's predecessor, Holland hung onto an aging Core too long and tried to band aid a team together. Hard to know when to pivot and always easier with the benefit of hindsight.

- HawkintheD

They chased their stupid playoff streak as it seemed it was their main marketing tool to sell tickets.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Mar 10 @ 12:26 PM ET
https://twitter.com/BenPo...mTzPEAuP5KB6jbZIHiag&s=01

So there's more
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Mar 10 @ 12:26 PM ET
LA, I hope you are correct. There is a fine line when it comes to young D. If as you speculate, the intention is to let prospects gain experience before throwing them into the NHL game, then having Mitchell sit in the pressbox as opposed to playing in Rockford makes little sense. Is the message that practicing at the NHL level is better for him than playing in the AHL. Sure, Johnson, Englund, Tinordi are all place holders, but at some point you need to bring the youngsters in and let them learn to play with the big boys. I've seen it both ways, guys brought up early and had their confidence ruined and never play to perceived potential. I have also seen guys brought up early and thrown to the wolves who go on to improve and excel.

Personally, I lean towards the latter. NHL is a much better game overall than the AHL in so many aspects. Let the kids come up and learn at full speed against and with players who have more talent overall.

- TheTrob


To me, Mitchell has been given over the past 2 years plenty of opportunity to show his potential. To me, every time he gets an opportunity, he shows he is not ready. At some point you got to feel he will never be ready/be good enough. What ever happened to he got his opportunity (through a call up or injury), he played so well, he seized it, and became a regular ever since. Mitchell is not the first young defenseman in the league that has been treated this way.

Mitchell's play against Detroit was terrible. Does he deserve to be in the line-up the next game? Isn't Phillips being treated the same way as Mitchell? They seem to be alternating. I would submit that Phillips has shown way more to be an NHL defenseman than Mitchell has.

Will be interesting to see if they offer Mitchell a contract next year. Forgetting unsigned RFA's you still have Roos, Phillips and Vlasic under contract (last year of Vlasic on an ELC, I believe he will get every chance in the world to make the team), plus you have Del Mastro, Allan going pro, and KK probably getting his 9 games in.

I understand being patient with Mitchell, but do you sign him believing you probably have 5 or 6 young(er) defenseman that are ahead of him on the depth chart?

Other thing against Mitchell is as a right handed defenseman, he is blocked by 3 right hand shot defenseman that have immovable contracts (S. Jones/Murphy/Zaitsev). As good or bad that they are, sans injury, where does Mitchell get playing time next year?


Popsghostly
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wheaton, IL
Joined: 08.11.2017

Mar 10 @ 12:27 PM ET
With or without Bedard, Cup actual contention for a cup is never guaranteed. Someone like Bedard makes them more competitive, more entertaining and maybe puts them in the playoff picture more quickly, but let history be your guide.

'03-'05 Pens draft Fleury, Malkin, Crosby.....win cup in 09 --- 6 years from start.
'04-'06 WSH draft Ovechkin, Backstrom.....win cup in '18 ----14 years from start
'06-'07 Hawks draft Toews, Kane......win cup in '10 --- 4 years from start
'08-'11 TB drafts Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov...lose cup in '15 ----7 years.
'11-'13 COL drafts Landeskog, MacKinnon......win cup in '22 ---11 years
'13-'14 EDM drafts McDavid, Draisaitl (plus mult. other #1's, etc).....still waiting
BUF .....still waiting
TOR......still waiting
NJ .......still waiting (maybe closest of all recent high drafters)

It takes a heck of a lot more than just a couple of high first rounders, and even if you have them it guarantees nothing. Hawks were the quickest with a 4 year turnaround.

- TheTrob


Trob- we actually have to go back further for the Hawks, 2002- Keith, 2003- Seabrook/Crawford, 2004- Bolland, Bickell and Brouwer, 2005- Hammer. So I think it should be 8 years. I'm not confident we have quality skill pieces until Reichel/Comesso in 2020, so that makes us in year 3?
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Mar 10 @ 12:29 PM ET
The advantage of Hakan Andersson is no more now that just about every team heavily invests in European Scouting. Crazy how many coattails Holland rode to a "HOF" career.

In 2008, the Red Wings' top five post-season scorers (Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzén, Kronwall, and Hudler) had all been scouted and recommended to the team by Andersson.

- Feds91Stammer


Everyone rides someone's coattails, there isn't success in isolation. Never will be. Point is the Wings just haven't been finding any diamonds in the rough anymore and have been much more average when it comes to developing prospects.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Mar 10 @ 12:31 PM ET
Stamkos, Kuch, and Hedman also weren't cup winners yet when they signed those deals whereas Kane and Toews already won 2 cups. That helped Tampa kind of set a precedent for cap hits.
- Feds91Stammer


That's true, but just pointing out that it's not the only factor. It's well documented how some teams have been able to do more with less because of the tax advantage they have. It's just a reality of the conditions the GMs are dealt.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Mar 10 @ 12:40 PM ET
That's true, but just pointing out that it's not the only factor. It's well documented how some teams have been able to do more with less because of the tax advantage they have. It's just a reality of the conditions the GMs are dealt.
- breadbag

That is pretty much life in general. Way more nuance to anything and everything. We just choose to ignore things that make us think too much.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Mar 10 @ 12:42 PM ET
https://twitter.com/CRoumeliotis/status/1634198261513822210?t=haC14Faz9Qry99wQIRo1rg&s=01

Some updates of our kiddies in the minors

Sounds very optimistic

- BetweenTheDots


That would be awesome, except he knows less than Mexico Hawk.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Mar 10 @ 12:54 PM ET
They chased their stupid playoff streak as it seemed it was their main marketing tool to sell tickets.
- Feds91Stammer


Was going to add that. Those teams weren't going to compete for anything but the local news outlets pumped up the playoff streak like it was the greatest accomplishment in league history.
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Mar 10 @ 12:55 PM ET
That's true, but just pointing out that it's not the only factor. It's well documented how some teams have been able to do more with less because of the tax advantage they have. It's just a reality of the conditions the GMs are dealt.
- breadbag

Boston seems to sign many of their players for less than market value.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Mar 10 @ 12:57 PM ET
Did anyone notice that P Kane was manning the left point on the NYR power play goal by Kane (secondary assist Breadman, primary assist Trouba)

HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Mar 10 @ 1:00 PM ET
That is pretty much life in general. Way more nuance to anything and everything. We just choose to ignore things that make us think too much.
- Feds91Stammer


I think this placee has gotten better over the years but that could have been this site's mission statement during the Cup years.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Mar 10 @ 1:02 PM ET
That would be awesome, except he knows less than Mexico Hawk.
- mohel


Mex has forgotten more than you'll ever know.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Mar 10 @ 1:08 PM ET
With or without Bedard, Cup actual contention for a cup is never guaranteed. Someone like Bedard makes them more competitive, more entertaining and maybe puts them in the playoff picture more quickly, but let history be your guide.

'03-'05 Pens draft Fleury, Malkin, Crosby.....win cup in 09 --- 6 years from start.
'04-'06 WSH draft Ovechkin, Backstrom.....win cup in '18 ----14 years from start
'06-'07 Hawks draft Toews, Kane......win cup in '10 --- 4 years from start
'08-'11 TB drafts Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov...lose cup in '15 ----7 years.
'11-'13 COL drafts Landeskog, MacKinnon......win cup in '22 ---11 years
'13-'14 EDM drafts McDavid, Draisaitl (plus mult. other #1's, etc).....still waiting
BUF .....still waiting
TOR......still waiting
NJ .......still waiting (maybe closest of all recent high drafters)

It takes a heck of a lot more than just a couple of high first rounders, and even if you have them it guarantees nothing. Hawks were the quickest with a 4 year turnaround.

- TheTrob


I agree on all this and that's what my thinking was. Bedard wont' equal an immediate rise in the standings by himself. He will need help. What KD will have to do like other GMs is balance the holes in the lineup with internal prospects, and acquiring external players either through UFA or trades.

This is really year 1 of this....so we have at least 4 years to go, if not 5 and that's assuming KD hits on a lot....which is a huge gamble because of age at drafting. So that's why I was perfectly OK accumulating as many picks as possible as it gives him some lee way. What I will be interested in seeing is once a Hawks prospect does get to say Rockford.....if the Hawks internally realize said player isn't on the trajectory they had hoped.....I hope they sell high. Scouts will be a HUGE variable here so lets hope our hockey ops is better than most league wide.
333inthe3rd
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 02.04.2015

Mar 10 @ 1:11 PM ET
The advantage of Hakan Andersson is no more now that just about every team heavily invests in European Scouting. Crazy how many coattails Holland rode to a "HOF" career.

In 2008, the Red Wings' top five post-season scorers (Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzén, Kronwall, and Hudler) had all been scouted and recommended to the team by Andersson.

- Feds91Stammer


Those five were part of why the Wings were able to extend their window to just past Lidstrom's retirement. They had so many hits in later rounds.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Mar 10 @ 1:12 PM ET
Agree. I think SY is a good GM as well and that the deification of his stewardship in both Detroit and Tampa is puzzling.

Posters lauded his ability to "sign guys for less" in Tampa. It's not like he was performing magic when TBL hadn't won one Cup let alone two. Guys got good deals but when they start winning Cups, doesn't take rocket science to figure the cost of doing business just went up.

He's drafted some good players in DET but it's not like the Yzerplan has borne any fruit. I do give him credit for recognizing his team wasn't ready to compete and punting on this season so he regained some lottery tickets with 1st round picks in a deep draft.

- HawkintheD



The sustainability side to all this is also a key variable....you need your horses to be good for long period of times and not just fall off a cliff.

Again, just feel we are in a great spot....tons of cap room, tons of picks the next 3 years, do the same thing this summer...find some guys who you can sign to 1 year deals and then flip them at the deadline for either prospects or picks. If we have a bunch of D prospects ready to make the next step....either before the season or at the end of the season....retain money on Murphy and flip him.

The patience to all this will be a rollercoaster but again.....its the long haul here.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Mar 10 @ 1:13 PM ET
Then why is Caleb Jones not only dressing regularly, but pulling 20+ minutes a night?
- TheTrob



Caleb Jones might be the cockiest player they have had here in a long time for as bad as he is, and how little he has accomplished. He's a place holder and doesn't hurt with their drive to finish last.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Mar 10 @ 1:15 PM ET
Ahhh, the ultimate question. Cap space only lasts so long. SO, if you draft a Bedard, Nazar, Korchinski, etc. and they all pan out about the same time, they are on rookie deals and you have space to add veterans. You add a Matthews, Aho, etc. too early in the process, then you no longer have cap space when second/third contracts come along for your young stars. It takes a good mix to make it all work with the hard cap.
- TheTrob



Well if the past has taught us anything....you also can't have a "core" of 8 guys in a hard cap world. That is likely the largest difference as to why Pittsburgh has been sustained success longer than the Hawks have.....they have cycled through a ton of supplement players to Crosby, Malkin, and Letang.....it also doesn't hurt outside of Letang, the 2 major horses have held constant in their careers as they have gotten older.
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