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Forums :: Blog World :: Sens Writer: All good things must come to an end. Hawks end Senators winning streak
Author Message
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Mar 10 @ 6:44 AM ET
Character win. Couple of weeks ago the concern was there were two many teams they had to jump over if they wanted to make the playoffs. Well they have made the jump and now they need to catch the guys dead ahead of them. Still some decent runway left for them to make a strong final push.

At the beginning of the season all I asked for is that they be part of the conversation during the stretch. I will not complain if they don't make it.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Mar 10 @ 9:13 AM ET
I never really bought the argument about too many teams being in the wild card hunt, especially given how tight to the cap so many teams are. Unless you were pretty confident in your teams' chances, it was far too steep a price to pay for the major trade deadline assets. So you have teams like WSH/FLA that are treading water, but not really making any kind of a push. Then you have other young teams like BUF/DET that have potential but are tapering off... DET is 3-6-1 in their last 10 and BUF is 6-9-0 since the start of February.

Just win the games you have to win, and don't expect any help. The good news? The Senators have been getting consistently better over the course of the year. If you look at their 64GP as four-16GP quarters, their record has gone:

1st 16GP - 6-9-1
2nd 16GP - 8-7-1
3rd 16GP - 8-7-1
4th 16GP - 11-4-1

Now consider that the 11-4-1 run they're currently on includes a 6-2-1 record with Sogaard/Mandolese in goal, and they're 3-1-0 since adding Chychrun... who's scored 2G-2A in those 4GP, and is a +2. The advantage still rests with NYI/PIT in terms of make a wild card playoff spot, but there's certainly a reason for them to be looking over their shoulder at a team that's just starting to figure out how good they can be.
Bartacus
Ottawa Senators
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 01.08.2019

Mar 10 @ 9:34 AM ET
Character win. Couple of weeks ago the concern was there were two many teams they had to jump over if they wanted to make the playoffs. Well they have made the jump and now they need to catch the guys dead ahead of them. Still some decent runway left for them to make a strong final push.

At the beginning of the season all I asked for is that they be part of the conversation during the stretch. I will not complain if they don't make it.

- spatso


Not to mention once your first round pick is out of the picture you naturally want to see the team end up higher in the standings so we give Arizona a weaker selection.
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Mar 10 @ 9:56 AM ET
Character win. Couple of weeks ago the concern was there were two many teams they had to jump over if they wanted to make the playoffs. Well they have made the jump and now they need to catch the guys dead ahead of them. Still some decent runway left for them to make a strong final push.

At the beginning of the season all I asked for is that they be part of the conversation during the stretch. I will not complain if they don't make it.

- spatso



Big weekend with back to back games. They can close some real ground if play at the top of their game.
SensFan25
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 08.24.2006

Mar 10 @ 10:55 AM ET
We scored 5 even strength goals last night. 5!

I'm keen on keeping Chabot, Sanderson and Chycrun on separate D pairings. That way, Ottawa has elite puck moving from the back end for the entire game. The team just needs to fill out the pairings with competent partners that are good in their own end and in front of the net. I would look to have Sanderson anchor the elite shutdown pairing and my hope is that Kleven could be the partner.
HoweHatrick
Joined: 01.02.2014

Mar 10 @ 11:04 AM ET
What are the odds that PD looks to "circumvent" the $9M qualifying offer for DeBrincat? My understanding of the CBA is somewhat rudimentary, but, unless I am mistaken, I see some possible options. In other words, does PD look to ink an extension or perhaps look at arbitration?

The former would allow the parties to agree to terms and I think would be something to explore if the Senators truly want to retain DeBrincat's services. If you are looking to retain a player, a negotiated deal should always be the preference.

That said, should a negotiated deal be out of the picture, the latter would mean the Senators could possibly take advantage of DeBrincat's "off" season and theoretically get his next contract down to the $7.65M hit at the lowest (85% of $9M). This would make a trade to a contender much more feasible as well.

I am curious as to how the situation pans out. Either way, whether he is retained or traded, DeBrincat is an asset that Senators can leverage. The strategy employed is going to be interesting.
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Mar 10 @ 11:32 AM ET
We scored 5 even strength goals last night. 5!

I'm keen on keeping Chabot, Sanderson and Chycrun on separate D pairings. That way, Ottawa has elite puck moving from the back end for the entire game. The team just needs to fill out the pairings with competent partners that are good in their own end and in front of the net. I would look to have Sanderson anchor the elite shutdown pairing and my hope is that Kleven could be the partner.

- SensFan25


Any chance Kelven gets a look assuming he signs his ELC, or is it Belleville exclusively for him?
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Mar 10 @ 11:35 AM ET
What are the odds that PD looks to "circumvent" the $9M qualifying offer for DeBrincat? My understanding of the CBA is somewhat rudimentary, but, unless I am mistaken, I see some possible options. In other words, does PD look to ink an extension or perhaps look at arbitration?

The former would allow the parties to agree to terms and I think would be something to explore if the Senators truly want to retain DeBrincat's services. If you are looking to retain a player, a negotiated deal should always be the preference.

That said, should a negotiated deal be out of the picture, the latter would mean the Senators could possibly take advantage of DeBrincat's "off" season and theoretically get his next contract down to the $7.65M hit at the lowest (85% of $9M). This would make a trade to a contender much more feasible as well.

I am curious as to how the situation pans out. Either way, whether he is retained or traded, DeBrincat is an asset that Senators can leverage. The strategy employed is going to be interesting.

- HoweHatrick


I would imagine that DeBrincat will be keen to sign a long term deal. He would not want to play an option year in Ottawa as a 2nd line player if he is hoping to get a 1st line contract. So, I think he signs in Ottawa on a reasonable deal or he gets moved to a new team that offers him a comparable package.
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Mar 10 @ 11:53 AM ET
I would imagine that DeBrincat will be keen to sign a long term deal. He would not want to play an option year in Ottawa as a 2nd line player if he is hoping to get a 1st line contract. So, I think he signs in Ottawa on a reasonable deal or he gets moved to a new team that offers him a comparable package.
- spatso


Playoffs could be so huge in convincing him to sign.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Mar 10 @ 12:30 PM ET
What are the odds that PD looks to "circumvent" the $9M qualifying offer for DeBrincat? My understanding of the CBA is somewhat rudimentary, but, unless I am mistaken, I see some possible options. In other words, does PD look to ink an extension or perhaps look at arbitration?

The former would allow the parties to agree to terms and I think would be something to explore if the Senators truly want to retain DeBrincat's services. If you are looking to retain a player, a negotiated deal should always be the preference.

That said, should a negotiated deal be out of the picture, the latter would mean the Senators could possibly take advantage of DeBrincat's "off" season and theoretically get his next contract down to the $7.65M hit at the lowest (85% of $9M). This would make a trade to a contender much more feasible as well.

I am curious as to how the situation pans out. Either way, whether he is retained or traded, DeBrincat is an asset that Senators can leverage. The strategy employed is going to be interesting.

- HoweHatrick

People are WAY too hung up on the $9M qualifying offer. If DeBrincat wants to stay long-term in OTT it will be for less than a $9M AAV, so then you negotiate things like AAV and term to figure it out. If they regard the Tkachuk-Norris range as the goal posts for major deals, then expect an offer in that range to be made, likely with more term than people would like in order to allow for a couple of higher $$$ years up-front.

And if no deal can be reached than you will almost certainly see a trade where they probably flip him for a lesser winger with the right AAV, and one of the regular posters here can go back to being an adult.
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Mar 10 @ 12:56 PM ET
People are WAY too hung up on the $9M qualifying offer. If DeBrincat wants to stay long-term in OTT it will be for less than a $9M AAV, so then you negotiate things like AAV and term to figure it out. If they regard the Tkachuk-Norris range as the goal posts for major deals, then expect an offer in that range to be made, likely with more term than people would like in order to allow for a couple of higher $$$ years up-front.

And if no deal can be reached than you will almost certainly see a trade where they probably flip him for a lesser winger with the right AAV, and one of the regular posters here can go back to being an adult.

- khawk


I have wondered what kind of return they could get for him, and what would be best for the team.

Not what they gave up, but you wouldn't want it to be pure picks at this stage of the team's transition.
GrimmdaGoalie
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 01.07.2016

Mar 10 @ 1:39 PM ET
Playoffs could be so huge in convincing him to sign.
- david22


Seems like Debrincat is a luxury we can't afford to have.

Or it is either Norris or DeBrincat, not both.

Does Grieg and Pinto make Norris obsolete?
Is Norris even movable?

And what is going to happen with Formenton?

Those are off-season problems. But loving this late season push by the team.
SensFan25
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 08.24.2006

Mar 10 @ 1:39 PM ET
Any chance Kelven gets a look assuming he signs his ELC, or is it Belleville exclusively for him?
- david22

Kleven is not likely to see a lot of time in Ottawa with the playoff push and not with DJ Smith - look at how he handled JBD.

The important thing is to get him under contract. I believe that if he plays one game with Ottawa during this season that it burns a year off the 2 year entry level contract that all college kids get. That seems to be how things usually work out.
HoweHatrick
Joined: 01.02.2014

Mar 10 @ 2:25 PM ET
Seems like Debrincat is a luxury we can't afford to have.
- GrimmdaGoalie


I am not sure I agree depending on the contract wants of the player.

I am more inclined to wonder if he is the player the team wants to sink the investment into.
HoweHatrick
Joined: 01.02.2014

Mar 10 @ 2:33 PM ET
I have wondered what kind of return they could get for him, and what would be best for the team.

Not what they gave up, but you wouldn't want it to be pure picks at this stage of the team's transition.

- david22


This is the portion of the possibilities that really intrigues me. I am not sure this team wants to stockpile picks but the Senators did lose a 1st this year. Hard to say if any players in the system step up so having a legitimate roster player that can fit into the Top 6 would be a great return. While true "hockey trades" involving multiplayer deals are rare, it would be exciting to package DeBrincat with another player / prospect / picks to land a return of players / prospects / picks.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Mar 10 @ 2:49 PM ET
This is the portion of the possibilities that really intrigues me. I am not sure this team wants to stockpile picks but the Senators did lose a 1st this year. Hard to say if any players in the system step up so having a legitimate roster player that can fit into the Top 6 would be a great return. While true "hockey trades" involving multiplayer deals are rare, it would be exciting to package DeBrincat with another player / prospect / picks to land a return of players / prospects / picks.
- HoweHatrick


Cap will grow an Sens can pay 6 roster players in the 8.2 AAV range. We know 4 slots are already taken up (Tkachuk, Chabot, Stutzle and Norris). Over the next few years the guys added to that group will come from DeBrincat, Chychuran and Sanderson. Do not discount that Pinto and others might fight for inclusion into the inner circle.

Someone is going to need to go at some point. The key is the need to manage enough flexibility to manage from year to year.

On the other side, teams like the Leafs that are on the other side of the salary escalation cycle will be paying substantially more (in the range of $12m to $16m) to retain their 3 top players. Sens are in great shape.
Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Mar 10 @ 7:00 PM ET
OTT scored 7 of the 9 goals yesterday,
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