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Forums :: Blog World :: Guest Writer: Senators beat MTL after tough losses to BOS/CAR
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Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Mar 2 @ 12:32 AM ET
Another question: did the Senators just acquire a new #1D? People have been dumping on Chabot's inconsistent defensive play, and Chychrun matches his offensive upside. It's also been suggested that Chabot has been severely over-played by the Senators, while Chychrun is ~top-30 in D-man ice time in his own right. In fact, if you take their past 3 seasons and pro-rate them to an 82GP season, you get the following comparison:

Chabot - 82GP, 11G, 41A, 52Pts, 55PIM, -14, 26:03min/GP
Chychrun - 82GP, 19G, 34A, 53Pts, 65PIM, -11, 23:14min/GP

We'll have to see who plays best with who, but on the surface Chychrun may be the more complete top-pairing D-man. Now maybe Sanderson will eventually outshine both of them, but it will be quite an interesting decision point for the team if they have to select just two of Chabot, Sanderson, and Chychrun as the core of the D-group going forward.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Mar 2 @ 6:35 AM ET
Another question: did the Senators just acquire a new #1D? People have been dumping on Chabot's inconsistent defensive play, and Chychrun matches his offensive upside. It's also been suggested that Chabot has been severely over-played by the Senators, while Chychrun is ~top-30 in D-man ice time in his own right. In fact, if you take their past 3 seasons and pro-rate them to an 82GP season, you get the following comparison:

Chabot - 82GP, 11G, 41A, 52Pts, 55PIM, -14, 26:03min/GP
Chychrun - 82GP, 19G, 34A, 53Pts, 65PIM, -11, 23:14min/GP

We'll have to see who plays best with who, but on the surface Chychrun may be the more complete top-pairing D-man. Now maybe Sanderson will eventually outshine both of them, but it will be quite an interesting decision point for the team if they have to select just two of Chabot, Sanderson, and Chychrun as the core of the D-group going forward.

- khawk


Chabot may be a huge winner from the Chychrun deal. Chabot gets special attention from the opposing team every game.

The cap numbers look really good for next year as well. If the cap gets a big pop this summer the Sens might be able to squeeze in one more deal in the $6.5m range. If they deal, rather than resign, DeBrincat they might add two additional skaters. I think the Sens need to think about setting up for a Cup run. My priority targets for this summer would be Pierre Luc Dubois and/or Ryan O'Reilly.


Octavarium
New York Islanders
Joined: 01.03.2007

Mar 2 @ 7:17 AM ET
we need a new blog!!
Somebody step up!
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Mar 2 @ 8:05 AM ET
Another question: did the Senators just acquire a new #1D? People have been dumping on Chabot's inconsistent defensive play, and Chychrun matches his offensive upside. It's also been suggested that Chabot has been severely over-played by the Senators, while Chychrun is ~top-30 in D-man ice time in his own right. In fact, if you take their past 3 seasons and pro-rate them to an 82GP season, you get the following comparison:

Chabot - 82GP, 11G, 41A, 52Pts, 55PIM, -14, 26:03min/GP
Chychrun - 82GP, 19G, 34A, 53Pts, 65PIM, -11, 23:14min/GP

We'll have to see who plays best with who, but on the surface Chychrun may be the more complete top-pairing D-man. Now maybe Sanderson will eventually outshine both of them, but it will be quite an interesting decision point for the team if they have to select just two of Chabot, Sanderson, and Chychrun as the core of the D-group going forward.

- khawk

I think you've nailed it buddy. I've always said that I like the player but the problem was that he was a LD and they didn't need a LD because they already had Sanderson and Chabot. I'd be very surprised if Dorion doesn't dump Chabot so that he can give DeBrincat big money. Trouble is some Sens fans would probably cheer such a move.

Maybe I'm completely off base and it turns out one of those three can play the right side very well, then you have a pretty imposing Dcore, maybe the best in the league. Wouldn't that be fun; and then you still have JBD and Kleven coming for your third pairing in the not too distant future.

Trouble is I just don't trust Dorion and I've got a little voice in my head whispering "WATCH OUT!" Another part of me is praying "PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE LET THIS MEAN THEY DON'T SIGN DEBRINCAT".

ps: So sweet watching the Oilers smack down TO last night.
Trilla
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 06.02.2013

Mar 2 @ 10:15 AM ET
Chabot may be a huge winner from the Chychrun deal. Chabot gets special attention from the opposing team every game.

The cap numbers look really good for next year as well. If the cap gets a big pop this summer the Sens might be able to squeeze in one more deal in the $6.5m range. If they deal, rather than resign, DeBrincat they might add two additional skaters. I think the Sens need to think about setting up for a Cup run. My priority targets for this summer would be Pierre Luc Dubois and/or Ryan O'Reilly.

- spatso



How is PLD or O’Reilly a better option then resigning debrincat??

If cat’s agent is asking for something outrageous, then you’re left with no choice but to deal..but if he’s willing to resign at a reasonable rate, you sign him.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Mar 2 @ 10:25 AM ET
we need a new blog!!
Somebody step up!

- Octavarium

Nobody signed up for this one, but I'll take it - have something about 2/3 ready, and should be up later this morning (Pacific time).
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Mar 2 @ 10:38 AM ET
How is PLD or O’Reilly a better option then resigning debrincat??

If cat’s agent is asking for something outrageous, then you’re left with no choice but to deal..but if he’s willing to resign at a reasonable rate, you sign him.

- Trilla

Having nobody is a better option than resigning DeBrincat. You will never be a serious contender with that guy in your top six.
Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Mar 2 @ 10:45 AM ET
Pasta signed 8 year 11.250 per and Bos traded for Bertuzzi from DET
Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Mar 2 @ 10:51 AM ET
Filip Gustavsson has the second-best five-on-five save percentage (.944) in the league since the calendar flipped to 2023.
SensFan25
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 08.24.2006

Mar 2 @ 10:58 AM ET
I have to give Dorion full marks on the Chycrun trade! Great GMs take advantage of opportunities in the marketplace to acquire assets at low or reasonable cost. The organization did an excellent job to make the deal with no loss of key low cost assets like Pinto and Greig.
GrimmdaGoalie
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 01.07.2016

Mar 2 @ 11:49 AM ET
Filip Gustavsson has the second-best five-on-five save percentage (.944) in the league since the calendar flipped to 2023.
- Mithos


This team has been historically awful at evaluating, drafting, signing and trading goalies.

Remember that time we had Andy, Lehner and Bishop and kept only Andy and got basically nothing for Ben Bishop? Remember that time we drafted Matthew Chouinard TWICE? Remember signing Matt O'Connor? Remember signing Matt Murray.....sorry....too soon?

Having said that...Mads looks to be a competent NHL goalie and would make a nice, cheap number 2 next year.
Bartacus
Ottawa Senators
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 01.08.2019

Mar 2 @ 12:03 PM ET
I think the Sens should target a depth centre - improve on Gambrell
- AlfieisKing


It could really be any warm body that takes faceoffs, which Gambrell's also not very good at (44.5%). Truly - there are 8 players with a min 35GP played in the entire league with less points than Gambrell. 6 of those are blue liners. The others are Dryden Hunt and Zack Kassian. Nico Sturm (SJS) or Mark Jankowski (NSH) would be nice - selling teams and likely not too expensive.
JoelytheGoalie
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 11.13.2013

Mar 2 @ 12:47 PM ET
This team has been historically awful at evaluating, drafting, signing and trading goalies.

Remember that time we had Andy, Lehner and Bishop and kept only Andy and got basically nothing for Ben Bishop? Remember that time we drafted Matthew Chouinard TWICE? Remember signing Matt O'Connor? Remember signing Matt Murray.....sorry....too soon?

Having said that...Mads looks to be a competent NHL goalie and would make a nice, cheap number 2 next year.

- GrimmdaGoalie



Completely agree, Sens have made some really bad calls. That being said, we did trade to get Andy initially and it gave us a steady goalie for a long time.

Mads looks good and would be nice as a 1b for next year on the big team. People shouldn't be sleeping on Leevi Merilainen. Kid has a 1.85 GAA, .923 SV%, a lead leading 8 shutouts with a record of 18-10-6 in 38 GP this season in Liiga. He'd look good in Belleville next year.
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Mar 2 @ 12:49 PM ET
It could really be any warm body that takes faceoffs, which Gambrell's also not very good at (44.5%). Truly - there are 8 players with a min 35GP played in the entire league with less points than Gambrell. 6 of those are blue liners. The others are Dryden Hunt and Zack Kassian. Nico Sturm (SJS) or Mark Jankowski (NSH) would be nice - selling teams and likely not too expensive.
- Bartacus

That's the ticket. I hope something of that nature happens. Not sure about Jankowski.
Bartacus
Ottawa Senators
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 01.08.2019

Mar 2 @ 1:03 PM ET
Completely agree, Sens have made some really bad calls. That being said, we did trade to get Andy initially and it gave us a steady goalie for a long time.

Mads looks good and would be nice as a 1b for next year on the big team. People shouldn't be sleeping on Leevi Merilainen. Kid has a 1.85 GAA, .923 SV%, a lead leading 8 shutouts with a record of 18-10-6 in 38 GP this season in Liiga. He'd look good in Belleville next year.

- JoelytheGoalie


I got the Talbot move when it happened - had we gotten the .915 he's normally dependable for, we'd more than likely be in a wild card spot.
Gus struggled last year, IMO because of exceptionally poor and erratic deployment that crushed his confidence - never rewarded for a win, demoted when he posted a loss. I also blame Garrioch's insanely stupid 'Gus the bus' nickname - I'd be on the first plane out of town if you rhymed my name with the sh*ttiest form of transportation on earth. Good on Gustavsson for bouncing back and being lights out.

Key for this team to take stock of what it has in the pipeline already - small sample size, but Sogard and Mando have brought a window of stability we haven't seen in net this year to date, and Leevi looks sneaky good in Finland.
Bartacus
Ottawa Senators
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 01.08.2019

Mar 2 @ 1:04 PM ET
That's the ticket. I hope something of that nature happens. Not sure about Jankowski.
- Whatisavailable


Jank doesn't put up points, but he does win on the dot, over 10% more success than Gambrell.
Octavarium
New York Islanders
Joined: 01.03.2007

Mar 2 @ 1:09 PM ET
thanks for stepping up khawk


I'm blown away by all the action and movement today.


Is PD done?

DeBrincat
Gambrel
picks and or Talbot

to Columbus (for)
Laine
Quick
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Mar 2 @ 1:21 PM ET
Jank doesn't put up points, but he does win on the dot, over 10% more success than Gambrell.
- Bartacus

Sean Kuraly?
Trilla
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 06.02.2013

Mar 2 @ 1:27 PM ET
Having nobody is a better option than resigning DeBrincat. You will never be a serious contender with that guy in your top six.
- Whatisavailable


I think the bigger concern is in net then Cat.

I get he hasn’t put the puck in the net the way we expected so far, but I’ve overall, liked his two way game, his passing ability..I mean he still has the best shot on this team.

GrimmdaGoalie
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 01.07.2016

Mar 2 @ 1:34 PM ET
Debrincat on the Sens is AT BEST a 30 goal scorer but more like a 23 to 26 goals a year guy (aka his pace for this year).

What is that worth in the NHL these days? 7 million a year?

I get they will qualify him at $9 million this year because the trade has better value if you keep him for 2 years. But no one wants him signed long term at that number. Or even above $8 million.

Qualify him. Play him for at least half of next year. Prove to him, his agent, and the hockey world that he is at best a 30 goal scorer and has limitations (size being one of them, aka Hoffman 2.0).

Sign him for 7 x 7. If not, trade him for type of players we need....a winger with size and a 4th line center. Or use that money to sign Sanderson long term.

spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Mar 2 @ 1:46 PM ET
Debrincat on the Sens is AT BEST a 30 goal scorer but more like a 23 to 26 goals a year guy (aka his pace for this year).

What is that worth in the NHL these days? 7 million a year?

I get they will qualify him at $9 million this year because the trade has better value if you keep him for 2 years. But no one wants him signed long term at that number. Or even above $8 million.

Qualify him. Play him for at least half of next year. Prove to him, his agent, and the hockey world that he is at best a 30 goal scorer and has limitations (size being one of them, aka Hoffman 2.0).

Sign him for 7 x 7. If not, trade him for type of players we need....a winger with size and a 4th line center. Or use that money to sign Sanderson long term.

- GrimmdaGoalie


I agree with your numbers. But, it would not be unrealistic to let his agents talk to other teams to see the best number and trade deal that might be worked out. DeBrincat might be far far more valuable on other rosters than on the Sens. Sens need another big body in their top 6 to take some of the load off of Tkachuck.
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Mar 2 @ 2:37 PM ET
Debrincat on the Sens is AT BEST a 30 goal scorer but more like a 23 to 26 goals a year guy (aka his pace for this year).

What is that worth in the NHL these days? 7 million a year?

I get they will qualify him at $9 million this year because the trade has better value if you keep him for 2 years. But no one wants him signed long term at that number. Or even above $8 million.

Qualify him. Play him for at least half of next year. Prove to him, his agent, and the hockey world that he is at best a 30 goal scorer and has limitations (size being one of them, aka Hoffman 2.0).

Sign him for 7 x 7. If not, trade him for type of players we need....a winger with size and a 4th line center. Or use that money to sign Sanderson long term.

- GrimmdaGoalie

I'd rather have the winger with size and speed and some hockey IQ. Maybe two so you can move Joseph. I think Stutzle, Norris, Pinto and Kastelec make for a solid C group.

We'll see what happens in net.
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Mar 2 @ 2:38 PM ET
I agree with your numbers. But, it would not be unrealistic to let his agents talk to other teams to see the best number and trade deal that might be worked out. DeBrincat might be far far more valuable on other rosters than on the Sens. Sens need another big body in their top 6 to take some of the load off of Tkachuck.
- spatso

100% agree.
SensFan25
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 08.24.2006

Mar 2 @ 2:40 PM ET
I agree with your numbers. But, it would not be unrealistic to let his agents talk to other teams to see the best number and trade deal that might be worked out. DeBrincat might be far far more valuable on other rosters than on the Sens. Sens need another big body in their top 6 to take some of the load off of Tkachuck.
- spatso

Exactly. Debrincat's value/fit on the Senators is likely not as high as other teams. Team needs and cap management are now important.
sens4life1971
Ottawa Senators
Location: smiths falls, ON
Joined: 02.16.2014

Mar 2 @ 2:49 PM ET
I think you've nailed it buddy. I've always said that I like the player but the problem was that he was a LD and they didn't need a LD because they already had Sanderson and Chabot. I'd be very surprised if Dorion doesn't dump Chabot so that he can give DeBrincat big money. Trouble is some Sens fans would probably cheer such a move.

Maybe I'm completely off base and it turns out one of those three can play the right side very well, then you have a pretty imposing Dcore, maybe the best in the league. Wouldn't that be fun; and then you still have JBD and Kleven coming for your third pairing in the not too distant future.

Trouble is I just don't trust Dorion and I've got a little voice in my head whispering "WATCH OUT!" Another part of me is praying "PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE LET THIS MEAN THEY DON'T SIGN DEBRINCAT".

ps: So sweet watching the Oilers smack down TO last night.

- Whatisavailable

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