True.
Having two of these guys for the playoffs would be a bonus for the leafs.
- Fakepartofme

Sure it is. But if moving him is part of the cost of bringing in a top tier guy, then you go with just the one Swedish Army knife.

I saw a stat that the went from a 14% probability to 19%.

I guess they could use him for a playoff push but if it’s not working they can still flip him at the deadline.
- bryant

thats smart and fun
doesnt sound like an NHL thing to do

thats smart and fun
doesnt sound like an NHL thing to do
- senstroll

Probably not a great way to treat a former captain if you want to attract free agents

Probably not a great way to treat a former captain if you want to attract free agents
- Canada Cup

They won't attract free agents anyway

Probably not a great way to treat a former captain if you want to attract free agents
- Canada Cup

via GIPHY

They won't attract free agents anyway
- 21peter

There are certain crimes you can get away with in Jersey that you can’t get away with in NY. Ya know whadda mean?

No Mr L, I’m not getting into the trunk of your car

Probably not a great way to treat a former captain if you want to attract free agents
- Canada Cup

The problem there - aside from the optics - is the law of diminishing returns. I doubt that Horvat's value is going to appreciate as they near the trade deadline. While I don't recall really seeing this before, it - in theory - could happen.

Now, objectively, the New York Islanders have 30 games remaining and are currently 25-22-5 and on pace for 86 points. The teams in the East this year may not be quite as strong in the wildcard spots, so probably 96 points is the target (the Sabres hold the last WC spot and are on pace for 94 at the moment). That's basically needing to go 19-8-3 the rest of the way - or a .683 winning percentage (which would be 5th best in the league). Does the addition of Horvat - who definitely upgrades over Czikas or Nelson - get them there?

March 3 is the trade deadline. The Islanders play 12 of those 30 games between now and then - 8 of which are against currently positioned playoff teams (including 2 against the Pens, who they are chasing). If they go 4-7-1 in those 12 games, for instance, that means in their final 18 games would need them to go 15-1-2.

Maybe you do sit down with Horvat and ask if he wants to be traded and try to lick your wounds a bit.

Their final 18 games are against 9 teams who are currently positioned in the playoffs, although 3 of them are against the Caps who are just on the outside looking in.

Still tickets for purchase for Sabres - Leafs on the 21st. Any of ya'll going?

The problem there - aside from the optics - is the law of diminishing returns. I doubt that Horvat's value is going to appreciate as they near the trade deadline. While I don't recall really seeing this before, it - in theory - could happen.

Now, objectively, the New York Islanders have 30 games remaining and are currently 25-22-5 and on pace for 86 points. The teams in the East this year may not be quite as strong in the wildcard spots, so probably 96 points is the target (the Sabres hold the last WC spot and are on pace for 94 at the moment). That's basically needing to go 19-8-3 the rest of the way - or a .683 winning percentage (which would be 5th best in the league). Does the addition of Horvat - who definitely upgrades over Czikas or Nelson - get them there?

March 3 is the trade deadline. The Islanders play 12 of those 30 games between now and then - 8 of which are against currently positioned playoff teams (including 2 against the Pens, who they are chasing). If they go 4-7-1 in those 12 games, for instance, that means in their final 18 games would need them to go 15-1-2.

Maybe you do sit down with Horvat and ask if he wants to be traded and try to lick your wounds a bit.

Their final 18 games are against 9 teams who are currently positioned in the playoffs, although 3 of them are against the Caps who are just on the outside looking in.
- Monkeypunk

The returns are likely further diminished by the probability/possibility of there being fewer buyers (or at least those in the Horvat market) by the TDL. Lou has to decide how long to hold onto his Bo and run out his chance at sneaking into the playoffs before picking up the phone.

Unless the return is greater, all he’s done is hurt the team’s ability to address it’s really need to start a rebuild

I'm getting stronger on my skates every day. 3rd pairing D on the Nucks is a real possibility.

I'm getting stronger on my skates every day. 3rd pairing D on the Nucks is a real possibility.
- Zezel

If so, you better get better or worse in a hurry

this trade deadline, the Leafs will be on a west coast road trip.
hopefully any moves they do, if any, will be made prior to the west coast road trip

The returns are likely further diminished by the probability/possibility of there being fewer buyers (or at least those in the Horvat market) by the TDL. Lou has to decide how long to hold onto his Bo and run out his chance at sneaking into the playoffs before picking up the phone.

Unless the return is greater, all he’s done is hurt the team’s ability to address it’s really need to start a rebuild
- Canada Cup

Well, that's the point - no matter what, all he has done is make this team weaker. If he resigns Horvat to an 8x8, he should get at least 1 good year out of him, if not 2 where he's performing at this 30 goal near to or exceeding a PPG - but as he reaches and surpasses 30, I'd expect a return to the .75ppg days and lower - especially with the aging and weaker support around him on the Islanders. If he can shift his game towards a more defensive style of role, he can probably prolong his career
meaningfully - but is that an $8m value?

Let's say they actually manage to pull off this .683 winning percentage over the last 30 and meet the Bruins in the first round of the playoffs. They have Sorokin, which is nice, but I don't think it's enough to get by Boston with that lack of depth. Still objectively worse next year.

Or, they fall on their faces in the next 12 and flip Horvat to try and recoup anything - a 1st round pick and a prospect. The pick will likely be 10-18 spots lower than where they were going to draft, and the prospect will likely not be as good as Raty - but they will have gotten out from under Beauvillier's deal and gotten _something_ even though the proper thing to do here was nothing all along.

I mean there's just. . . I'm honest-to-God flummoxed by the why of it. "He's going for it!" . . . that's what you do when you're desperate or thinking about yourself (or your legacy), not what you do when you're thinking about the good of the organization you work for.

Regardless of how that all shakes out, January 30, 2023 was the highest Horvat's value was going to be as a trade asset.

Sure it is. But if moving him is part of the cost of bringing in a top tier guy, then you go with just the one Swedish Army knife.
- Canada Cup

With retention and better contracts out there they would be smart to move him.

Linemates Barbashev and Acciari?

barbashev-Acciari-Jarnkrok
Holmberg-Kampf-Engvall


Then add for the top 6

this trade deadline, the Leafs will be on a west coast road trip.
hopefully the move if ant the Leafs make will be prior to the west coast road trip
- dmnted

You'd think it'll be in 3 weeks when AM is back.

Dubas will make his big add well before the TDL I think.

But I hear you’re good in the room; very good in the room.
- Canada Cup

What I lack in skill, I make for up with enthusiasm and commitment!

Negative value?
Hes a 25 year old who's scored at a 0.50ppg pace the past two years and is having a slightly down year.
Ya hes a little overpaid in opinion, but he doesnt have negative value.
- Fakepartofme

Yes.

One year older than Garland. Overpaid middle 6 players aren't worth trade value.

Yes.

One year older than Garland. Overpaid middle 6 players aren't worth trade value.
- Santo_44

The real question isn’t how much value he holds but how that value is applied: as a bit in Lou’s Don Quixote ride into the sun or traded by the Islanders for something next year.

The real question isn’t how much value he holds but how that value is applied: as a bit in Lou’s Don Quixote ride into the sun or traded by the Islanders for something next year.
- Canada Cup

His TDL value next year is like ARZ trading for Ritchie for his TDL this year.

VAN is in a cap crunch and Beau doesnt help.

With retention and better contracts out there they would be smart to move him.

Linemates Barbashev and Acciari?

barbashev-Acciari-Jarnkrok
Holmberg-Kampf-Engvall


Then add for the top 6
- Santo_44

Barbashev and Acciari are not improvements over Kerfoot and Aston-Reese in terms of their dynamics. Acciari doesn't kill penalties, but Barbashev is used as St. Louis' 7th forward in the case of penalty killing and is a team worst at everything - shot suppression, goal suppression, chance suppression, high danger chance suppressison, and expected goals against.

I don't like Kerfoot, but those two aren't the replacements for him.

His TDL value next year is like ARZ trading for Ritchie for his TDL this year.

VAN is in a cap crunch and Beau doesnt help.
- Santo_44

As someone mentioned somewhere, he was likely a cap evener. I was talking about NYI’s decision. They used assets (you can argue about how valuable the individual pieces are) to likely get closer but not make the playoffs or get blown out they should be using assets to rebuild.

I don’t know what other offers Van had or how they valued these pieces. I’m just glad they didn’t move him to Boston.

Why do they even have lobsters in a tank at Red Lobster? You know they don't serve that poop, it's just for show. Those (frank)ers probably get sick and die and then they go to Sobey's and buy some poor more dumbass lobsters to sacrifice on their altar of greed. Or they probably literally take them in back and sacrifice them to Satan, in the middle of a pentagram drawn in mass-produced alfredo-like substance. I have to keep going to that charade cause my mom and brother, and it's killing independent Zezel. (frank) Red Lobster.

Barbashev and Acciari are not improvements over Kerfoot and Aston-Reese in terms of their dynamics. Acciari doesn't kill penalties, but Barbashev is used as St. Louis' 7th forward in the case of penalty killing and is a team worst at everything - shot suppression, goal suppression, chance suppression, high danger chance suppressison, and expected goals against.

I don't like Kerfoot, but those two aren't the replacements for him.
- Monkeypunk

They both hit and can finish scoring opportunities.

I like them both better than Kerfoot.

Barbashev and Acciari are not improvements over Kerfoot and Aston-Reese in terms of their dynamics. Acciari doesn't kill penalties, but Barbashev is used as St. Louis' 7th forward in the case of penalty killing and is a team worst at everything - shot suppression, goal suppression, chance suppression, high danger chance suppressison, and expected goals against.

I don't like Kerfoot, but those two aren't the replacements for him.
- Monkeypunk

I don’t think you trade to upgrade Kerfoot. I think you trade to upgrade elsewhere and live with a slight downgrade in the Kerfoot replacement unless they bring in better pieces than those

After reading this board all year, I think I'm gonna get my Leafs jersey crested with Kerfoot's number, whatever that is.