The 2023 offseason is almost here, and the Bills have their work cut out for them in keeping their Super Bowl window wide open.
The NFL informed teams that the 2023 salary-cap limit is $224.8 million — a record total for the league and the first marker for Bills general manager Brandon Beane with how to move forward. Beane made it a point to stress that this offseason will not feature a Von Miller-type signing as the franchise begins to deal with having a $40 million franchise quarterback cap hit on its ledger.
“Right now, we’re probably in the $240s of what’s on the book,” Beane said of their 2023 cap situation. “We’re going to have to get under the cap by moves, could be roster cuts, and that’s all the free agents that you guys are aware of not on the books. All those are counting zero dollars.”
Before any incentive adjustments, the Bills’ remaining 2022 cap room is $2,189,084, according to the NFLPA’s daily public salary-cap report. Rolling that over on top of the 2023 cap limit would put the Bills at just under $227 million.
However, the Bills have over $247 million in cap dollars on their 2023 roster, according to Over the Cap, which means they’ll need to shed a little over $20 million just to get cap compliant. The possibilities for restructuring are endless, but Beane has long held on to the idea of staying out of cap jail in future years, meaning they’ll need to pick and choose which deals make the most sense to restructure.
What moves can they make to give themselves some breathing room and put them in a position to field another competitive roster? And which moves make the most sense for the long term?
Realistic cap-casualty options
RB Nyheim Hines
2023 cap hit: $4.79 million
2023 potential cap savings: $4.79 million
Hines arrived in Buffalo as they hoped he would be a missing piece on the offense, but he never became a regular feature for offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Hines did make himself a valuable player as a kickoff returner, but that usually doesn’t equate to a nearly $5 million cap hit. The Bills could save more money by cutting Hines than on any other non-core player, and it isn’t close. The cap hit likely needs to be addressed as is. So don’t be surprised if the Bills attempt to get Hines to agree to a pay cut to keep him and save cap dollars.
WR Isaiah McKenzie
2023 cap hit: $2.92 million
2023 potential cap savings: $2.62 million
The wide receivers group came under fire last year for their overall inconsistency and could be a significant focus of the Bills’ offseason additions. McKenzie was part of the issue, as his lack of an impact pushed the Bills to sign veterans Cole Beasley and John Brown to the practice squad. McKenzie also had his returner role taken away, giving him less of a hold on a 2023 roster spot. However, he is a “glue guy” for the locker room. Keeping players with that distinction is important to coach Sean McDermott. The Bills will have to decide whether that’s worth nearly $3 million in savings.
go-deeper
GO DEEPER
NFL sets record salary cap for 2023 season
DT Tim Settle
2023 cap hit: $2.70 million
2023 potential cap savings: $2.25 million
The Bills hoped Settle would round out the rotation in an attacking role, but watched some uneven results from their rotational defensive tackle. And when they needed him in a starting spot, he struggled significantly against the Bengals in the playoffs. With defensive tackles Eli Ankou and Brandin Bryant, two players the team likes, on futures deals, the Bills might have enough reason to move on this offseason. However, with Jordan Phillips’ becoming a free agent, they might want to hang on to Settle to get by in 2023.
Potential restructures
QB Josh Allen
2023 cap hit: $39.8 million
2023 potential cap savings: $21.14 million
By restructuring Allen’s $27.5 million base salary down to the veteran minimum and converting the rest of it into a prorated signing bonus, the Bills can likely get under the cap. Of all their restructuring options, that one is the most likely. Allen is signed for six more seasons, they are committed to him for the long term, and there are other features of his contract, like a $25 million roster bonus in 2025, that they can convert to a prorated bonus to help give them future flexibility. They can live with the extra $5.4 million on the 2024 salary cap to get them where they need to be in 2023.
Restructuring Josh Allen’s contract could save the Bills a lot of salary-cap headaches this offseason. (Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images)
DE Von Miller
2023 cap hit: $20.27 million
2023 potential cap savings: $10.68 million
Usually, kicking cap dollars down the road on a soon-to-be 34-year-old rehabbing from a torn ACL isn’t a wise option, but this one makes quite a bit of sense. The Bills invested in Miller with what is effectively a three-year deal. They can’t get out of it and save money until 2025, and at that point, they can save almost $14 million to move on that offseason before any adjustments this offseason. That’s why it makes sense for the team to convert Miller’s $13.345 million roster bonus into a prorated signing bonus, save nearly $11 million and keep their flexibility to move on past the 2024 season. With this move, the Bills’ potential savings to cut Miller in 2025 would be $5.8 million.
LB Matt Milano
2023 cap hit: $13.34 million
2023 potential cap savings: $6.13 million
Milano is technically signed only through the 2024 season, but he has two void years from a previous maneuver that the Bills can add to this offseason. You see the potential savings and think that it isn’t that bad, but this one might not be as likely as the others because of the toll it will take on the 2025 cap. The void years are excellent for prorating in the current year, but all the cap space pushed into multiple void years comes due in the first void year. So restructuring Milano’s 2023 base salary into a signing bonus would add over $4 million to his 2025 void-year cap hit, which will take it up to nearly $7 million on a season Milano is not on the team. It’s not an inconceivable move, but one the Bills may want to leave alone.
LT Dion Dawkins
2023 cap hit: $14.85 million
2023 potential cap savings: $5.83 million
The Dawkins contract is a similar situation to Milano’s. Dawkins has two years left on his deal, and the Bills added two void years in a previous contract restructure. So though on the surface, saving nearly $6 million would be ideal for 2023, it would raise his void year cap hit to almost $7 million in 2025. On top of that, Dawkins had his worst year since his rookie contract. The Bills should prefer to keep their options open with Dawkins should they want to move him inside to guard or move on altogether in 2024.
WR Stefon Diggs
2023 cap hit: $20.27 million
2023 potential cap savings: $5.4 million
Diggs signed his extension with the Bills before last season, and restructuring his deal early on would follow a similar trend in the Bills’ previous moves. It would revolve around Diggs’ $7.91 million base salary and converting all but the veteran minimum to a signing bonus. It would wind up adding only $1.35 million to the salary cap each year from 2024 through 2027 while getting the Bills $5.4 million in flexibility this offseason. As with Miller, it isn’t enough of an addition to future cap hits to deviate from their flexibility after the 2025 season. In 2026, the then 32-year-old Diggs would still yield roughly $13.7 million in cap savings to move on that offseason.
CB Tre’Davious White
2023 cap hit: $16.24 million
2023 potential cap savings: $5.01 million
With White back from a torn ACL and showing improvement every week, he looks poised to return to pre-injury form with a full offseason to get stronger. He is signed through the next three years and likely will play out the entire contract at worst. Converting his $8.6 million base salary into a signing bonus would yield good savings and add merely $2.5 million to his cap hits in 2024 and 2025. The White contract conversion might not be their first move, but still, a good option if they need additional funds.
NCB Taron Johnson
2023 cap hit: $9.25 million
2023 potential cap savings: $3.32 million
It would take another void-year commitment to get this kind of savings, but the amount it would put on to their 2025 cap is doable. Johnson is signed for two more seasons, and by adding two void years, only $1.1 million more would be added to Johnson’s 2024 cap hit, and then the 2025 void year cap hit would be $2.2 million. Johnson is a big part of their defense and is a viable candidate for another contract extension after this deal expires. This move seems more team friendly than the Milano and Dawkins restructure potential, but unnecessary unless the Bills really need the cap room.
Contract extensions
In 2023, three Bills players are entering the final year of their contract that has a cap hit of at least $10 million, and the Bills could look to extend any and all of the trio. That group includes center Mitch Morse ($11.36 million cap hit in 2023), defensive tackle Ed Oliver ($10.75 million) and safety Micah Hyde ($10.57 million). Signing any of them to an extension of at least one season will likely result in some cap relief for 2023, but in most cases, the longer the contract extension, the more cap relief it will yield. For Morse (31 in April) and Hyde (33 in December), short-term extensions are more likely due to their age. If the Bills feel Oliver is a big part of their future, a long-term extension would likely yield the most cap space of the three.
The 2023 offseason is almost here, and the Bills have their work cut out for them in keeping their Super Bowl window wide open.
The NFL informed teams that the 2023 salary-cap limit is $224.8 million — a record total for the league and the first marker for Bills general manager Brandon Beane with how to move forward. Beane made it a point to stress that this offseason will not feature a Von Miller-type signing as the franchise begins to deal with having a $40 million franchise quarterback cap hit on its ledger.
“Right now, we’re probably in the $240s of what’s on the book,” Beane said of their 2023 cap situation. “We’re going to have to get under the cap by moves, could be roster cuts, and that’s all the free agents that you guys are aware of not on the books. All those are counting zero dollars.”
Before any incentive adjustments, the Bills’ remaining 2022 cap room is $2,189,084, according to the NFLPA’s daily public salary-cap report. Rolling that over on top of the 2023 cap limit would put the Bills at just under $227 million.
However, the Bills have over $247 million in cap dollars on their 2023 roster, according to Over the Cap, which means they’ll need to shed a little over $20 million just to get cap compliant. The possibilities for restructuring are endless, but Beane has long held on to the idea of staying out of cap jail in future years, meaning they’ll need to pick and choose which deals make the most sense to restructure.
What moves can they make to give themselves some breathing room and put them in a position to field another competitive roster? And which moves make the most sense for the long term?
Realistic cap-casualty options
RB Nyheim Hines
2023 cap hit: $4.79 million
2023 potential cap savings: $4.79 million
Hines arrived in Buffalo as they hoped he would be a missing piece on the offense, but he never became a regular feature for offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Hines did make himself a valuable player as a kickoff returner, but that usually doesn’t equate to a nearly $5 million cap hit. The Bills could save more money by cutting Hines than on any other non-core player, and it isn’t close. The cap hit likely needs to be addressed as is. So don’t be surprised if the Bills attempt to get Hines to agree to a pay cut to keep him and save cap dollars.
WR Isaiah McKenzie
2023 cap hit: $2.92 million
2023 potential cap savings: $2.62 million
The wide receivers group came under fire last year for their overall inconsistency and could be a significant focus of the Bills’ offseason additions. McKenzie was part of the issue, as his lack of an impact pushed the Bills to sign veterans Cole Beasley and John Brown to the practice squad. McKenzie also had his returner role taken away, giving him less of a hold on a 2023 roster spot. However, he is a “glue guy” for the locker room. Keeping players with that distinction is important to coach Sean McDermott. The Bills will have to decide whether that’s worth nearly $3 million in savings.
go-deeper
GO DEEPER
NFL sets record salary cap for 2023 season
DT Tim Settle
2023 cap hit: $2.70 million
2023 potential cap savings: $2.25 million
The Bills hoped Settle would round out the rotation in an attacking role, but watched some uneven results from their rotational defensive tackle. And when they needed him in a starting spot, he struggled significantly against the Bengals in the playoffs. With defensive tackles Eli Ankou and Brandin Bryant, two players the team likes, on futures deals, the Bills might have enough reason to move on this offseason. However, with Jordan Phillips’ becoming a free agent, they might want to hang on to Settle to get by in 2023.
Potential restructures
QB Josh Allen
2023 cap hit: $39.8 million
2023 potential cap savings: $21.14 million
By restructuring Allen’s $27.5 million base salary down to the veteran minimum and converting the rest of it into a prorated signing bonus, the Bills can likely get under the cap. Of all their restructuring options, that one is the most likely. Allen is signed for six more seasons, they are committed to him for the long term, and there are other features of his contract, like a $25 million roster bonus in 2025, that they can convert to a prorated bonus to help give them future flexibility. They can live with the extra $5.4 million on the 2024 salary cap to get them where they need to be in 2023.
Restructuring Josh Allen’s contract could save the Bills a lot of salary-cap headaches this offseason. (Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images)
DE Von Miller
2023 cap hit: $20.27 million
2023 potential cap savings: $10.68 million
Usually, kicking cap dollars down the road on a soon-to-be 34-year-old rehabbing from a torn ACL isn’t a wise option, but this one makes quite a bit of sense. The Bills invested in Miller with what is effectively a three-year deal. They can’t get out of it and save money until 2025, and at that point, they can save almost $14 million to move on that offseason before any adjustments this offseason. That’s why it makes sense for the team to convert Miller’s $13.345 million roster bonus into a prorated signing bonus, save nearly $11 million and keep their flexibility to move on past the 2024 season. With this move, the Bills’ potential savings to cut Miller in 2025 would be $5.8 million.
LB Matt Milano
2023 cap hit: $13.34 million
2023 potential cap savings: $6.13 million
Milano is technically signed only through the 2024 season, but he has two void years from a previous maneuver that the Bills can add to this offseason. You see the potential savings and think that it isn’t that bad, but this one might not be as likely as the others because of the toll it will take on the 2025 cap. The void years are excellent for prorating in the current year, but all the cap space pushed into multiple void years comes due in the first void year. So restructuring Milano’s 2023 base salary into a signing bonus would add over $4 million to his 2025 void-year cap hit, which will take it up to nearly $7 million on a season Milano is not on the team. It’s not an inconceivable move, but one the Bills may want to leave alone.
LT Dion Dawkins
2023 cap hit: $14.85 million
2023 potential cap savings: $5.83 million
The Dawkins contract is a similar situation to Milano’s. Dawkins has two years left on his deal, and the Bills added two void years in a previous contract restructure. So though on the surface, saving nearly $6 million would be ideal for 2023, it would raise his void year cap hit to almost $7 million in 2025. On top of that, Dawkins had his worst year since his rookie contract. The Bills should prefer to keep their options open with Dawkins should they want to move him inside to guard or move on altogether in 2024.
WR Stefon Diggs
2023 cap hit: $20.27 million
2023 potential cap savings: $5.4 million
Diggs signed his extension with the Bills before last season, and restructuring his deal early on would follow a similar trend in the Bills’ previous moves. It would revolve around Diggs’ $7.91 million base salary and converting all but the veteran minimum to a signing bonus. It would wind up adding only $1.35 million to the salary cap each year from 2024 through 2027 while getting the Bills $5.4 million in flexibility this offseason. As with Miller, it isn’t enough of an addition to future cap hits to deviate from their flexibility after the 2025 season. In 2026, the then 32-year-old Diggs would still yield roughly $13.7 million in cap savings to move on that offseason.
CB Tre’Davious White
2023 cap hit: $16.24 million
2023 potential cap savings: $5.01 million
With White back from a torn ACL and showing improvement every week, he looks poised to return to pre-injury form with a full offseason to get stronger. He is signed through the next three years and likely will play out the entire contract at worst. Converting his $8.6 million base salary into a signing bonus would yield good savings and add merely $2.5 million to his cap hits in 2024 and 2025. The White contract conversion might not be their first move, but still, a good option if they need additional funds.
NCB Taron Johnson
2023 cap hit: $9.25 million
2023 potential cap savings: $3.32 million
It would take another void-year commitment to get this kind of savings, but the amount it would put on to their 2025 cap is doable. Johnson is signed for two more seasons, and by adding two void years, only $1.1 million more would be added to Johnson’s 2024 cap hit, and then the 2025 void year cap hit would be $2.2 million. Johnson is a big part of their defense and is a viable candidate for another contract extension after this deal expires. This move seems more team friendly than the Milano and Dawkins restructure potential, but unnecessary unless the Bills really need the cap room.
Contract extensions
In 2023, three Bills players are entering the final year of their contract that has a cap hit of at least $10 million, and the Bills could look to extend any and all of the trio. That group includes center Mitch Morse ($11.36 million cap hit in 2023), defensive tackle Ed Oliver ($10.75 million) and safety Micah Hyde ($10.57 million). Signing any of them to an extension of at least one season will likely result in some cap relief for 2023, but in most cases, the longer the contract extension, the more cap relief it will yield. For Morse (31 in April) and Hyde (33 in December), short-term extensions are more likely due to their age. If the Bills feel Oliver is a big part of their future, a long-term extension would likely yield the most cap space of the three. - jochfr
