I'm very cautious about the numbers of any kid that has NHL size playing in the CHL. Too many times they have a big advantage with their size playing against younger/smaller kids and put up numbers that make you think they are better than they are. When they get to the NHL, they can't overpower everyone like they do in the CHL since it's full of big players that are stronger than they are.
This was one of the reasons i wasn't as high on Byfield (that and he looked invisible in the WJC against his age group). Byfield does have the skills and IQ though so i get why he went that high. Ras shouldn't have even though that draft was kind of weak.
- dcz28
The thing is, there's not even that much of a size difference anyway. The average NHLer is about 6'1" and 200 pounds. The average CHLer is 6'0" and 180.
I'm certainly no expert when it comes to the science of size versus playing ability but I tend to take the perspective that a player's size is already "baked into the analysis," so to speak. Or in other words: even if, all other things being equal, it's better to be 6'5" than 5'9", that still doesn't mean you should draft based on size. If a short guy is outperforming a big guy against equivalent competition,
despite the disadvantage of being small, that's a good indication that he's just that much more skilled, and those skill advantages will probably persist in the future.
I don't know if you are right or wrong that prospects with "NHL size" translate less of their CHL performance to NHL performance than smaller players. But I'm not sure I agree that Rasmussen's size was the
primary reason to be skeptical about his NHL projection. The problem wasn't that he could dominate junior players but couldn't dominate bigger, stronger NHLers. The problem was that he wasn't even dominating junior players. Once you looked at any stat other than total goals it was apparent that he kinda sucked.