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Forums :: Blog World :: Hank Balling: News and Notes / Winnipeg’s Secondary Sauce Sorcery
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lacaprup
Buffalo Sabres
Location: NY
Joined: 07.23.2006

Jan 13 @ 7:20 AM ET
Sabres got Hellebuyck'd. Bounce out of this skid. Peterka and Quinn will play saturday.
- TheSabresTaco


When does Power take a few nights off? He needs some real help in the defensive end. I got a feeling he's could be a paper transaction.

lacaprup
Buffalo Sabres
Location: NY
Joined: 07.23.2006

Jan 13 @ 7:21 AM ET
Fantasy land. Is there a Sabre you wouldn't trade for Hellebuyck?
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Jan 13 @ 7:25 AM ET
Until our goalies aren't outplayed every night we aren't going anywhere. We're a 110 point pace team with .900 save %. That's beyond good.

And I'll just keep saying it because it's true:
Cam Talbot or Ville Husso and we're looking down at Tampa from the 3 spot.

- lacaprup

Sure, could very well be true. But until something changes in that aspect why not try and strengthen your team in other areas that might help with that weak spot.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jan 13 @ 7:27 AM ET
When does Power take a few nights off? He needs some real help in the defensive end. I got a feeling he's could be a paper transaction.
- lacaprup


what with that defense?

I doubt it.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jan 13 @ 7:27 AM ET
Fantasy land. Is there a Sabre you wouldn't trade for Hellebuyck?
- lacaprup


I could name a few. The list gets shorter the better we get sans goalie
lacaprup
Buffalo Sabres
Location: NY
Joined: 07.23.2006

Jan 13 @ 7:42 AM ET
Sure, could very well be true. But until something changes in that aspect why not try and strengthen your team in other areas that might help with that weak spot.
- Buff36


I'm never against upgrading the team, but when I see the best goalie in the league in front of me my talking point the next day is not defense or depth scoring.
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Jan 13 @ 7:42 AM ET
Fantasy land. Is there a Sabre you wouldn't trade for Hellebuyck?
- lacaprup

Yes
lacaprup
Buffalo Sabres
Location: NY
Joined: 07.23.2006

Jan 13 @ 7:43 AM ET
I could name a few. The list gets shorter the better we get sans goalie
- TheSabresTaco


I'd think hard about Tage or Dahls, but I think I'd pull the trigger on either. Anyone else, even Cozens, and I'd pack their bags for them.
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Jan 13 @ 7:48 AM ET
I'm never against upgrading the team, but when I see the best goalie in the league in front of me my talking point the next day is not defense or depth scoring.
- lacaprup

Well we have been saying the same thing for years now. Everyone sees it. But you know the one constant throughout the bad goaltending has been just as bad or worse Defense. Not every team has a all-star goalie.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jan 13 @ 7:49 AM ET
I'd think hard about Tage or Dahls, but I think I'd pull the trigger on either. Anyone else, even Cozens, and I'd pack their bags for them.
- lacaprup


you'd trade a franchise defenseman or center for a 30 year old goalie?

broh
The_Inkwell
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Buffalo, NY
Joined: 06.29.2006

Jan 13 @ 7:52 AM ET
Fantasy land. Is there a Sabre you wouldn't trade for Hellebuyck?
- lacaprup


He was something else. We at least get a point last night if not for his stellar play.
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Jan 13 @ 7:56 AM ET
https://theathletic.com/4...ailyemail&campaign=601983
Few there I would take a look at.
lacaprup
Buffalo Sabres
Location: NY
Joined: 07.23.2006

Jan 13 @ 8:06 AM ET
you'd trade a franchise defenseman or center for a 30 year old goalie?

broh

- TheSabresTaco


28, but you know... facts. I'd trade the best defenseman in the world for the best goalie in the world, yes.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jan 13 @ 8:08 AM ET
28, but you know... facts. I'd trade the best defenseman in the world for the best goalie in the world, yes.
- lacaprup


He's 30 in May. There's your facts. Right around the time during the only part of the year a team would trade a star goalie.

Even though goalies are voodoo and Hellebuyck has never won anything and he's 30 to start the season and our franchise defender is 8 years younger. You'd do that.
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Jan 13 @ 8:14 AM ET
He's 30 in May. There's your facts. Right around the time during the only part of the year a team would trade a star goalie.

Even though goalies are voodoo and Hellebuyck has never won anything and he's 30 to start the season and our franchise defender is 8 years younger. You'd do that.

- TheSabresTaco

So we make are Defense even worse hoping Hellebuyck can keep the puck out of the net facing 30 high danger shots a game. Interesting!!!
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Jan 13 @ 8:14 AM ET
He's 30 in May. There's your facts. Right around the time during the only part of the year a team would trade a star goalie.

Even though goalies are voodoo and Hellebuyck has never won anything and he's 30 to start the season and our franchise defender is 8 years younger. You'd do that.

- TheSabresTaco


The proof of your point about his age, for Paul:

https://www.capfriendly.c...players/connor-hellebuyck
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jan 13 @ 8:15 AM ET
So we make are Defense even worse hoping Hellebuyck can keep the puck out of the net facing 30 high danger shots a game. Interesting!!!
- Buff36


that's for (frank)ing sure.
lacaprup
Buffalo Sabres
Location: NY
Joined: 07.23.2006

Jan 13 @ 8:22 AM ET
Did a little more digging into the team goalie numbers.

Of the 40 games played by the Buffalo Sabres, we've gotten .900 % goaltending or better in 19 of them.

In those 19, we are 13-6, which is exactly 104 points in 76 games. Over a full 82 games it's about 112 points.

Of the 19, CA has 9.5 of them and is 6-3.5 (he and Comrie shared a loss against Ottawa game 17 of the season)

Of the 19, EC has 3.5 of them and 2-1.5 (with his shared loss to Ottawa)

Of the 19, UPL has 5 of them and is 4-1

At 13-6 with a .900% the Sabres, of course, stand at 7-12-2 when they don't get at least a .900%, which bounces out to a season of 28-48-6... good for 62 points.

112 points with good goaltending. 62 points with poop goaltending.

The longest continuous stretch of .900% or better for the Sabres was games 28-35. In those 8 games the Sabres went 6-2 with wins over LA, Colorado, AZ, Vegas, Detroit, and Boston sandwiched by losses to Pittsburg and Ottawa.

The Sabres also started the season with hot goalies. Games 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7 all featured above .900% goalies. 3 for EC 2 for CA. The team was 4-1 in those 5 games.

TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jan 13 @ 8:24 AM ET
just something to throw around.

craig anderson plus rasmus dahlin have a Standing Points Above Replacement (SPAR) level of 6.4. Hellebuyck has a SPAR of 7.9. So, over the course of the season, Hellebuyck has earned his team 1.5 additional standing points than those two combined. And that's with Anderson playing 15 games, less than half of Hellebuyck.

Considering you're probably getting an additional 8 years of value out of Dahlin in a position that is harder to fill, this information alone convinces me to keep Dahlin and to hope for/make a moderate upgrade in goal.

Whether that be UPL or otherwise.
lacaprup
Buffalo Sabres
Location: NY
Joined: 07.23.2006

Jan 13 @ 8:26 AM ET
The proof of your point about his age, for Paul:

https://www.capfriendly.c...players/connor-hellebuyck

- kingcong39


Excuse me, he's 29, not 28 or 30. No need for you to keep lying. We're in fantasy land, so the trade happens today at their current ages. And, like I said, I'd think on it. But, let's be clear Conner's been in the playoffs 4 seasons in a row. This year will make 5.

Meanwhile, we'll maybe have a Norris and a Rocket in Buffalo this season. We won't have playoffs though unless a goalie magically appears.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jan 13 @ 8:27 AM ET
Again, we got Hellebuyck'd

https://twitter.com/CMDeD...9sXlKypGJlhkG4baKtYQ&s=19
lacaprup
Buffalo Sabres
Location: NY
Joined: 07.23.2006

Jan 13 @ 8:27 AM ET
just something to throw around.

craig anderson plus rasmus dahlin have a Standing Points Above Replacement (SPAR) level of 6.4. Hellebuyck has a SPAR of 7.9. So, over the course of the season, Hellebuyck has earned his team 1.5 additional standing points than those two combined. And that's with Anderson playing 15 games, less than half of Hellebuyck.

Considering you're probably getting an additional 8 years of value out of Dahlin in a position that is harder to fill, this information alone convinces me to keep Dahlin and to hope for/make a moderate upgrade in goal.

Whether that be UPL or otherwise.

- TheSabresTaco


Now do those numbers with UPL or Comrie. Why did you choose 34 games a season CA to compare with 66 games a season CH?
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jan 13 @ 8:30 AM ET
Excuse me, he's 29, not 28 or 30. No need for you to keep lying. We're in fantasy land, so the trade happens today at their current ages. And, like I said, I'd think on it. But, let's be clear Conner's been in the playoffs 4 seasons in a row. This year will make 5.

Meanwhile, we'll maybe have a Norris and a Rocket in Buffalo this season. We won't have playoffs though unless a goalie magically appears.

- lacaprup


There are 3-4 players I wouldn't trade for Ilya Sorokin or probably Igor Shesterkin. TT, DC/OP, RD. I could maybe be convinced to trade DC/OP.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jan 13 @ 8:31 AM ET
Now do those numbers with UPL or Comrie. Why did you choose 34 games a season CA to compare with 66 games a season CH?
- lacaprup


I chose the current season. My bad
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jan 13 @ 8:32 AM ET
UPL by the way has actually been pretty good since his bad start. And I'm not a UPL guy.

Eh maybe decent
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