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Forums :: Blog World :: Kevin Francis: Which player has exceeded expectations so far this season?!
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spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jan 9 @ 5:02 AM ET
Stutzle is Sens best player and he is going to get a lot better. He is on the last year of his entry level deal. Sanderson has one more year to go on his entry level deal and he will likely become the Sens #1D sometime over the next few years. These kids are babies in the really tough NHL competitive world. Brady Tkachuk may be the best captain in the NHL. He remains a wonderful big kid that is a gift to the entire Sens fan base.

The Sens have played wonderful hockey over the past 5 weeks.

They crapped the bed Saturday night and gave up 8 goals with Sanderson having his first really ugly game this season.

It was one game. Forget about it. It happens. Take a few minutes to learn from it but everyone needs to move on.

The sky is not falling.

This is a really good and fun team to follow.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jan 9 @ 5:31 AM ET
Matthews, Marner and Bunting 48 goals....47 goals Stutzle, Tkachuk and Giroux

Sens are okay on first line match up (goals scored).

Tavares, Nylander and Jankrok 50 goals...36 goals for Pinto, DeBrincat and Batherson.

Leafs are getting awesome production out of their second line.
Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Jan 9 @ 6:17 AM ET
Stutzle is Sens best player and he is going to get a lot better. He is on the last year of his entry level deal. Sanderson has one more year to go on his entry level deal and he will likely become the Sens #1D sometime over the next few years. These kids are babies in the really tough NHL competitive world. Brady Tkachuk may be the best captain in the NHL. He remains a wonderful big kid that is a gift to the entire Sens fan base.

The Sens have played wonderful hockey over the past 5 weeks.

They crapped the bed Saturday night and gave up 8 goals with Sanderson having his first really ugly game this season.

It was one game. Forget about it. It happens. Take a few minutes to learn from it but everyone needs to move on.

The sky is not falling.

This is a really good and fun team to follow.

- spatso


what i find disturbing is people going hard on ROOKIE in his first season in the NHL, is he going to have bad games? yes even Hedman and Makar have bad games
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jan 9 @ 11:51 AM ET
what i find disturbing is people going hard on ROOKIE in his first season in the NHL, is he going to have bad games? yes even Hedman and Makar have bad games
- Mithos

Sorry, which ROOKIE are you talking about? I don't think I've heard anyone even breathe a bad word about Sanderson.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jan 9 @ 12:21 PM ET
Matthews, Marner and Bunting 48 goals....47 goals Stutzle, Tkachuk and Giroux

Sens are okay on first line match up (goals scored).

Tavares, Nylander and Jankrok 50 goals...36 goals for Pinto, DeBrincat and Batherson.

Leafs are getting awesome production out of their second line.

- spatso

No, they're not "okay" on a first line match-up, or a second line match up. This is where people need to be careful when using statistics to draw conclusions. A one-dimensional count of points isn't all that helpful if your whole team is giving up more goals than they score every time they're on the ice. It's like trying to shoot pool without thinking of what you're leaving on the table.

Matthews, Marner and Bunting +41 vs. -18 Stutzle, Tkachuk and Giroux
Tavares, Nylander and Jankrok +20 vs. -52 for Pinto, DeBrincat and Batherson.

If you average those out across the 3 players to approximate a line +/- score, it gives the Leafs a +14 vs. -6 advantage on the first line, and a +7 vs. -17 advantage on the second line. That means the Leafs' 1st line outscored their opponents ~48G-34G, while the Senators' 1st line were outscored ~53G-47G. Then you have the Leafs' 2nd line outscoring their opponents ~50G-43G, while the Senators' 2nd line were outscored ~53G-36G. So the Senators' 1st line has been a bit better than their 2nd line in terms of relative production, but nowhere near what the Leafs have had.

Probably has something to do with why one team is top-5 in the NHL and the other is bottom-10, despite the raw goal-scoring count of the top lines.
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jan 9 @ 12:44 PM ET
No, they're not "okay" on a first line match-up, or a second line match up. This is where people need to be careful when using statistics to draw conclusions. A one-dimensional count of points isn't all that helpful if your whole team is giving up more goals than they score every time they're on the ice. It's like trying to shoot pool without thinking of what you're leaving on the table.

Matthews, Marner and Bunting +41 vs. -18 Stutzle, Tkachuk and Giroux
Tavares, Nylander and Jankrok +20 vs. -52 for Pinto, DeBrincat and Batherson.

If you average those out across the 3 players to approximate a line +/- score, it gives the Leafs a +14 vs. -6 advantage on the first line, and a +7 vs. -17 advantage on the second line. That means the Leafs' 1st line outscored their opponents ~48G-34G, while the Senators' 1st line were outscored ~53G-47G. Then you have the Leafs' 2nd line outscoring their opponents ~50G-43G, while the Senators' 2nd line were outscored ~53G-36G. So the Senators' 1st line has been a bit better than their 2nd line in terms of relative production, but nowhere near what the Leafs have had.

Probably has something to do with why one team is top-5 in the NHL and the other is bottom-10, despite the raw goal-scoring count of the top lines.

- khawk

Another good one.
Bartacus
Ottawa Senators
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 01.08.2019

Jan 9 @ 1:43 PM ET
No, they're not "okay" on a first line match-up, or a second line match up. This is where people need to be careful when using statistics to draw conclusions. A one-dimensional count of points isn't all that helpful if your whole team is giving up more goals than they score every time they're on the ice. It's like trying to shoot pool without thinking of what you're leaving on the table.

Matthews, Marner and Bunting +41 vs. -18 Stutzle, Tkachuk and Giroux
Tavares, Nylander and Jankrok +20 vs. -52 for Pinto, DeBrincat and Batherson.

If you average those out across the 3 players to approximate a line +/- score, it gives the Leafs a +14 vs. -6 advantage on the first line, and a +7 vs. -17 advantage on the second line.

Probably has something to do with why one team is top-5 in the NHL and the other is bottom-10, despite the raw goal-scoring count of the top lines.

- khawk


Given the outstanding special teams numbers to date and the fact Batherson doesn't play PK, is almost a PPG, and has the second worst +/- in the league, we must really be getting hosed 5v5 when he's on the ice. Anybody have an idea on what aspect of his game has him getting scored on so often? Sure, part of +/- is bad luck, but we have a decent sample size now, and he was a plus player last year... is his defensive game or backchecking exceptionally weak?

Hopefully Norris coming back bumps Pinto back to 3C where he should be, but I don't think Norris' game is conducive to fixing the 5v5 issues Batherson seems to have. If/when JN is back I hope some creativity is exercised in finding the right top 6 mix rather than just plugging Norris in to replace Pinto, but that's a tall order and expectation given what we have seen to date. At the very least I hope DJ tries reuniting the Brady/Norris/Bath line from last year and bumping Debrincat to play with Giroux and Stutzle.
Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Jan 9 @ 2:32 PM ET
Given the outstanding special teams numbers to date and the fact Batherson doesn't play PK, is almost a PPG, and has the second worst +/- in the league, we must really be getting hosed 5v5 when he's on the ice. Anybody have an idea on what aspect of his game has him getting scored on so often? Sure, part of +/- is bad luck, but we have a decent sample size now, and he was a plus player last year... is his defensive game or backchecking exceptionally weak?

Hopefully Norris coming back bumps Pinto back to 3C where he should be, but I don't think Norris' game is conducive to fixing the 5v5 issues Batherson seems to have. If/when JN is back I hope some creativity is exercised in finding the right top 6 mix rather than just plugging Norris in to replace Pinto, but that's a tall order and expectation given what we have seen to date. At the very least I hope DJ tries reuniting the Brady/Norris/Bath line from last year and bumping Debrincat to play with Giroux and Stutzle.

- Bartacus


+- is a mostly useless stat and on a team with the worst coach in the NHL in the last decade + is absolutely meaningless
Octavarium
New York Islanders
Joined: 01.03.2007

Jan 9 @ 2:59 PM ET
Batherson dogs it on the back check. Badly. He's been benched for it. Brady does a little too. Lessons to be learned. Took Mathews until this season to figure out that playing good defense CREATES offense.

Additionally.
Is Kevin really Kevin?
I'm not on twitter. But what I saw posted there regarding our blogger wasn't great.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jan 9 @ 3:34 PM ET
+- is a mostly useless stat and on a team with the worst coach in the NHL in the last decade + is absolutely meaningless
- Mithos

It's not a meaningless stat in the least, especially when comparing players in comparable roles in the context of a single team's performance in a single given season. Look at the Senators' list of +/- among forwards... whose stats do you take issue with? Joseph/Motte lead the team in terms of +/-, despite not contributing a lot of goals... so really just eating up minutes, but with limited harm done. Giroux is by far the best +/- player among the top-6, which is hardly surprising. You think that's not a major reason as to why Tkachuk/Stutzle have better relative goal differentials than Batherson/Pinto/DeBrincat? Then you have Zub as the only D-man on the positive side of the ledger (+2), following by Sanderson (-3), Chabot (-6), and Hamonic (-11). That hardly seems out of step with their relative balance of offensive/defensive contributions.

The problem is their two primary scoring lines appear to be trying to generate offense in ways that expose the team's weakness on the blue line and defensive structure. And when you have evidence that 5-on-5 play is your weakness, plus your greatest advantage is on special teams, then maybe it's time to pull back the ES offensive pressure. Get your top-2 lines to focus more on their NZ/DZ play, and look for counter-attack chances. It's not as fun to watch, but right now they're serving up a 5-on-5 buffet for smart opposing coaches, and a change like that might actually get them into a position to play meaningful games in MAR/APR.
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jan 9 @ 6:15 PM ET
It's not a meaningless stat in the least, especially when comparing players in comparable roles in the context of a single team's performance in a single given season. Look at the Senators' list of +/- among forwards... whose stats do you take issue with? Joseph/Motte lead the team in terms of +/-, despite not contributing a lot of goals... so really just eating up minutes, but with limited harm done. Giroux is by far the best +/- player among the top-6, which is hardly surprising. You think that's not a major reason as to why Tkachuk/Stutzle have better relative goal differentials than Batherson/Pinto/DeBrincat? Then you have Zub as the only D-man on the positive side of the ledger (+2), following by Sanderson (-3), Chabot (-6), and Hamonic (-11). That hardly seems out of step with their relative balance of offensive/defensive contributions.

The problem is their two primary scoring lines appear to be trying to generate offense in ways that expose the team's weakness on the blue line and defensive structure. And when you have evidence that 5-on-5 play is your weakness, plus your greatest advantage is on special teams, then maybe it's time to pull back the ES offensive pressure. Get your top-2 lines to focus more on their NZ/DZ play, and look for counter-attack chances. It's not as fun to watch, but right now they're serving up a 5-on-5 buffet for smart opposing coaches, and a change like that might actually get them into a position to play meaningful games in MAR/APR.

- khawk

I have made posts in the past about how when the puck was in the Dzone Tkachuk was hanging out at the opposing blueline waiting for the stretch pass while Norris hung around center ice waiting for the stretch pass and I didn't think this was a good idea because the Sens D is not good enough to make that system work.

I've spoken about how Stutzle seems to be the only guy from the top six who is always down deep helping out the D and the same holds true this year. He's got the skill and the speed to move up the ice quickly.

With the injuries on D this year I've noticed that Tkachuk is helping out more in the Dzone but he doesn't go too deep. DeBrincat is also trying to help out in the Dzone but his problem is that he's not any good at winning puck battles on the boards.

Pinto and Giroux make the occasional contributions defensively in their own zone.

The guy I can't remember seeing there all that much is Batherson.

Maybe it's just me but that's how I remember things.

Even healthy this D core needs help from their forwards but the problem is that there doesn't seem to be any plan in place on how to go about that kind of system effectively.

These players are young and I understand that they will make mistakes but they also happen to be too good to be making that many mistakes in my opinion.

How come Pinto who was being praised so highly for his responsible two way game all of a sudden has become a defensive liability? Same for all these guys with their big minus numbers?

I have to look at the coach as the culprit. He might be a wonderful human being but he's just not good enough as a HC in the NHL and unfortunately we're looking at another year where the team flounders and in my opinion underperforms..





HoweHatrick
Joined: 01.02.2014

Jan 9 @ 7:49 PM ET
Additionally.
Is Kevin really Kevin?
I'm not on twitter. But what I saw posted there regarding our blogger wasn't great.

- Octavarium


It seems he doesn't have a twitter account anymore. Definitely some sketchiness there. Good grief.

If needed, I think khawk should be our next blogger. Generally provides intelligent content and likes to throw down some words with the odd disagreement.
sens4life1971
Ottawa Senators
Location: smiths falls, ON
Joined: 02.16.2014

Jan 9 @ 8:13 PM ET
It seems he doesn't have a twitter account anymore. Definitely some sketchiness there. Good grief.

If needed, I think khawk should be our next blogger. Generally provides intelligent content and likes to throw down some words with the odd disagreement.

- HoweHatrick

👍
Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Jan 9 @ 9:02 PM ET
sens blog is like the sens, totally dysfunctional
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jan 9 @ 9:02 PM ET
God Brannstrom is a disaster on ice tonight!

Sens are getting their chances but pass instead of shoot or miss the net or shoot right into the goalie's pads or crest.
sens4life1971
Ottawa Senators
Location: smiths falls, ON
Joined: 02.16.2014

Jan 9 @ 10:23 PM ET
Man I’m getting so annoyed with this dumping puck crap , like guy on other side of ice all alone yep let’s throw the puck up the ice 🤦‍♂️
Like did Chabot lose some hockey IQ cause man he makes the most stupidest plays and no look throw the puck anywhere 🤷‍♂️
Can we have Torts coach for 1 week I would love to see how many players he sits on bench for periods lol or healthy scratch core prices just wanna see Smith hold players accountable 😏
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jan 9 @ 10:37 PM ET
Man I’m getting so annoyed with this dumping puck crap , like guy on other side of ice all alone yep let’s throw the puck up the ice 🤦‍♂️
Like did Chabot lose some hockey IQ cause man he makes the most stupidest plays and no look throw the puck anywhere 🤷‍♂️
Can we have Torts coach for 1 week I would love to see how many players he sits on bench for periods lol or healthy scratch core prices just wanna see Smith hold players accountable 😏

- sens4life1971

Chabot looked great offensively tonight. Made one mistake when the puck bounced on him and he was moving towards the net for the shot. They were pressing down by two late in the game. Just a bad bounce.

Brannstrom is who you should be pointing your finger at. Or Sanderson who made a lot of mistakes throughout the game.

Zub was the culprit on the second goal because he decided to go after the guy behind the net for some reason just taking himself out of the play.

The puck was not bouncing for them tonight and Saros made the saves when they did get their chances. Just one of those nights.
Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Jan 10 @ 6:14 AM ET
Chabot looked great offensively tonight. Made one mistake when the puck bounced on him and he was moving towards the net for the shot. They were pressing down by two late in the game. Just a bad bounce.

Brannstrom is who you should be pointing your finger at. Or Sanderson who made a lot of mistakes throughout the game.

Zub was the culprit on the second goal because he decided to go after the guy behind the net for some reason just taking himself out of the play.

The puck was not bouncing for them tonight and Saros made the saves when they did get their chances. Just one of those nights.

- Whatisavailable


the announcer said it during the game, when OTT players were in good shooting position they passed the puck (most of time gave it away with a bad pass) rather than shoot it and it resulted in no shot
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Jan 10 @ 8:18 AM ET
Erik F**king Brannstrom was called out by the coach indirectly. He hated the turnovers in the game and one by Branny led to a 3 on 1 later in the game that didn't end up costing them otherwise he would be thrown even further under the bus.

I cannot overstate this enough - put a guy like Jakob Chychrun or another top D-man in over Erik Brannstrom, and this team would be in a playoff race (Even with the average coach we have). I feel for Brannstrom because he will never be seen properly due to the Mark Stone trade but he is not developing properly into the star player he was as a prospect and it pains to say that
SensFan25
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 08.24.2006

Jan 10 @ 8:57 AM ET
If needed, I think khawk should be our next blogger. Generally provides intelligent content and likes to throw down some words with the odd disagreement.
- HoweHatrick

Agreed.
Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Jan 10 @ 11:20 AM ET
Erik F**king Brannstrom was called out by the coach indirectly. He hated the turnovers in the game and one by Branny led to a 3 on 1 later in the game that didn't end up costing them otherwise he would be thrown even further under the bus.

I cannot overstate this enough - put a guy like Jakob Chychrun or another top D-man in over Erik Brannstrom, and this team would be in a playoff race (Even with the average coach we have). I feel for Brannstrom because he will never be seen properly due to the Mark Stone trade but he is not developing properly into the star player he was as a prospect and it pains to say that

- AlfieisKing


that trade turned into one of the worst in NHL history
sens4life1971
Ottawa Senators
Location: smiths falls, ON
Joined: 02.16.2014

Jan 10 @ 11:21 AM ET
Chabot looked great offensively tonight. Made one mistake when the puck bounced on him and he was moving towards the net for the shot. They were pressing down by two late in the game. Just a bad bounce.

Brannstrom is who you should be pointing your finger at. Or Sanderson who made a lot of mistakes throughout the game.

Zub was the culprit on the second goal because he decided to go after the guy behind the net for some reason just taking himself out of the play.

The puck was not bouncing for them tonight and Saros made the saves when they did get their chances. Just one of those nights.

- Whatisavailable

I wasn’t talking offensively I’m talking about how he gets the puck in D zone and h just throws it anywhere and usually it’s on opponents stick it’s like he’s lost ice vision , sure offensively he’s great but defensively he’s horrible my god anyone can see this 🤦‍♂️ and I rather see him play more defensive then offensive 😏
And yes Brannstrom was horrible too
And before ya go off lol I love Chabot 😊
RyeDog13
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 05.03.2018

Jan 11 @ 1:15 PM ET
I dont think we are getting Kevin back anytime soon, there is alot of pretty bad talk on reddit/Twitter accusing him of some real nasty stuff and illegal stuff.....either someone is running a campaign to ruin his life, or he isnt who everyone thought he was.....I wont post a link, everyone can do their own searching...its not hard. Kevin, if you are reading this and all the info is false accusations and a-hole talk, then I'm sorry. I'm hoping it's not the truth, and the truth needs to be told
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jan 11 @ 1:44 PM ET
Erik F**king Brannstrom was called out by the coach indirectly. He hated the turnovers in the game and one by Branny led to a 3 on 1 later in the game that didn't end up costing them otherwise he would be thrown even further under the bus.

I cannot overstate this enough - put a guy like Jakob Chychrun or another top D-man in over Erik Brannstrom, and this team would be in a playoff race (Even with the average coach we have). I feel for Brannstrom because he will never be seen properly due to the Mark Stone trade but he is not developing properly into the star player he was as a prospect and it pains to say that

- AlfieisKing

With all due respect to Brannstrom, in what light is he "properly" seen?

He was a #15 overall pick in the NHL after being the captain of the Swedish U16 and U17 teams. That carries with it significant expectations, even before the Mark Stone trade and the now-infamous Dorion hyperbole. Plus, what has he done since to make the criticisms inappropriate? He showed some early promise in the AHL, but his offensive production has systemically regressed over the past 3 seasons. Despite having the steadiest NHL ice time of his career, he's now on pace for 1/2 the offensive production of Hamonic, Zaitsev, or Holden. So he's an offensive D-man who doesn't really produce offense, and while able to handle the pace of a top-4 role he's too often physically outmatched. Not that it really matters, because he's also a natural LHD who's locked behind Chabot/Sanderson for the next 5-6yrs at minimum.

At the end of the day, star players have to stand out, and Brannstrom has not done that. Right now he's an affordable RFA-aged puck-moving 3rd pairing D-man, and maybe he stays around for another year or two as they transition away from some of the older UFA-aged D-men like Hamonic, Zaitsev, and Holden. But at this point, I don't think he'll last very long once Kleven comes into the picture, who is basically a dream 3rd pairing LHD from DJ Smith's perspective.
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jan 11 @ 3:35 PM ET
With all due respect to Brannstrom, in what light is he "properly" seen?

He was a #15 overall pick in the NHL after being the captain of the Swedish U16 and U17 teams. That carries with it significant expectations, even before the Mark Stone trade and the now-infamous Dorion hyperbole. Plus, what has he done since to make the criticisms inappropriate? He showed some early promise in the AHL, but his offensive production has systemically regressed over the past 3 seasons. Despite having the steadiest NHL ice time of his career, he's now on pace for 1/2 the offensive production of Hamonic, Zaitsev, or Holden. So he's an offensive D-man who doesn't really produce offense, and while able to handle the pace of a top-4 role he's too often physically outmatched. Not that it really matters, because he's also a natural LHD who's locked behind Chabot/Sanderson for the next 5-6yrs at minimum.

At the end of the day, star players have to stand out, and Brannstrom has not done that. Right now he's an affordable RFA-aged puck-moving 3rd pairing D-man, and maybe he stays around for another year or two as they transition away from some of the older UFA-aged D-men like Hamonic, Zaitsev, and Holden. But at this point, I don't think he'll last very long once Kleven comes into the picture, who is basically a dream 3rd pairing LHD from DJ Smith's perspective.

- khawk

Mendes says that he's watched Kleven play some and sees him as a throwback to Dmen like Scott Stevens and just loves to blow people up with hard, powerful hits. Mendes thinks he'll need a year in the AHL to learn how to temper his enthusiasm a bit and pick his spots. You can't just run around trying to hit anything that moves in the NHL and once he learns that he should be awesome on the third pairing.
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