Kyrou 8 X $8.125
- .HOHO.

Because the CAP will go up in a few years, he'll go from being way overpaid to just overpaid.

These people clearly don't understand the gravity of their situation.
- Monkeypunk

Life must be very complicated for you. Everybody operates on the basis of “made up guesses about the future”. Some do a better job than others.
- Canada Cup

Some people even operate on made up guesses about the present.

Because you look at cap numbers based off of the number today

If you pay for 8 years you pay for the cap percentage of the projected cap in each year

Simple math
- Santo_44

Agreed. Simple math.

Decent/good players getting paid like star players.

Life must be very complicated for you. Everybody operates on the basis of “made up guesses about the future”. Some do a better job than others.
- Canada Cup

Not complicated at all. Live for today. Make decisions based on available info today.

- TurdFergeson

I'll take it!

Agreed. Simple math.

Decent/good players getting paid like star players.
- GreatGigInTheSky

PPG

better than Nylander when he got his contract

And with the cap going out Kyrou will play into the same contract as Nylander, maybe even better

Not complicated at all. Live for today. Make decisions based on available info today.
- TurdFergeson

You can't be serious that you believe all these long term contracts are based off of only todays cap?

Like seriously? You believe that?

same, but ill take a day off to do other things
- senstroll

Same.

3 day weekend. Sign me up. Is it starting this Monday?

You can't be serious that you believe all these long term contracts are based off of only todays cap?

Like seriously? You believe that?
- Santo_44

Maybe, it's just as simple as the GM saying "screw it, I won't be here in 7 years, let the next guy deal with the bad contracts"

You can't be serious that you believe all these long term contracts are based off of only todays cap?

Like seriously? You believe that?
- Santo_44

Never said that at all. But anyone that thinks these contracts are justified by projections is crazy. You’re not only assuming the cap grows as expected but you’re also assuming the player progresses as you’re projecting. There is big risk involved. Obviously these GMs are consciously taking these risks or they don’t care about the long term implications.

I don’t know if NHL teams employ actuaries but many corporations use complex math to calculate such risk.

A lot people in Russia have real back luck with "falling".

"Vladimir Putin's point man for developing Russia's vast Arctic resources has died after 'falling overboard' while sailing off the country's Pacific coast.

Ivan Pechorin, 39, was managing director of Putin's Far East and Arctic Development Corporation"
- Fakepartofme

"And I thought being a rapper was dangerous. Being a Russian oligarch is like...um... playing Russian Roulette."

Never said that at all. But anyone that thinks these contracts are justified by projections is crazy. You’re not only assuming the cap grows as expected but you’re also assuming the player progresses as you’re projecting. There is big risk involved. Obviously these GMs are consciously taking these risks or they don’t care about the long term implications.
- TurdFergeson

There’s always risk involved in any long term contract. There’s risk involved on both sides. Stutzle took a big risk signing an year deal before the cap goes up. He could potentially lock in at a much bigger number in a few years.

Long term deals require both side to make tougher projections about the future

Maybe, it's just as simple as the GM saying "screw it, I won't be here in 7 years, let the next guy deal with the bad contracts"
- PatC80

I mean I think Kyrou and Thomas are both excellent players. Are they $8m players (or 9.9% of the cap)? I don't know for sure because they have such a small sample size. Both of these guys have been signed while they have one year left on the RFA deal.

Here's the one thing . . .over the next 3 years, you could have probably signed both for about $6m on a bridge, and then paid $9m on the resulting contract. So technically the Blues lose money on these deals - *if* both Kyrou and Thomas continue to play at about this pace - of being excellent, but not elite players. If I were the one signing these deals, I'd have probably rolled the dice on them being excellent but not elite - because that's what I think they are (and I really like Kyrou).

Similar to Tage Thompson in Buffalo - these are players who have one good year, but Thompson is slightly more worrisome because his was inflated with a surprisingly high shooting percentage. If he settles back to a normal 10-11%, he should still be productive, but he'll be at least $2m overpaid. If he settles back to his career averages (which I don't think he does; I think he's figured it out), the contract will be a disaster.

I think some of Ken Holland's deals are made with your comment in mind. I think the Blues' deals and Sabres deals were made with an actual eye on the future.

I mean I think Kyrou and Thomas are both excellent players. Are they $8m players (or 9.9% of the cap)? I don't know for sure because they have such a small sample size. Both of these guys have been signed while they have one year left on the RFA deal.

Here's the one thing . . .over the next 3 years, you could have probably signed both for about $6m on a bridge, and then paid $9m on the resulting contract. So technically the Blues lose money on these deals - *if* both Kyrou and Thomas continue to play at about this pace - of being excellent, but not elite players. If I were the one signing these deals, I'd have probably rolled the dice on them being excellent but not elite - because that's what I think they are (and I really like Kyrou).

Similar to Tage Thompson in Buffalo - these are players who have one good year, but Thompson is slightly more worrisome because his was inflated with a surprisingly high shooting percentage. If he settles back to a normal 10-11%, he should still be productive, but he'll be at least $2m overpaid. If he settles back to his career averages (which I don't think he does; I think he's figured it out), the contract will be a disaster.

I think some of Ken Holland's deals are made with your comment in mind. I think the Blues' deals and Sabres deals were made with an actual eye on the future.
- Monkeypunk

I’m not going to do the math but are they worth, say 6% of the cap in 2 or 3 years?

PPG

better than Nylander when he got his contract

And with the cap going out Kyrou will play into the same contract as Nylander, maybe even better
- Santo_44

I'm not talking only Kyrou, but Nylander had 2 60 point seasons before his contract. This past season was the only good one of Kyrou's career, and he did it at an older age than Nylander did. Swing and a miss.

I'm talking about a lot of guys and the contracts they're signing.

Jordan Kyrou, Tim Stützle, Josh Norris, Mikhail Sergachev, Anthony Cirelli, Erik Cernak, Valeri Nichushkin, Tage Thompson

Completely and entirely irrelevant if the CAP goes up or not, these guys got insane $$$.

Hell, it could also be argued that Tkachuk got an insane contract, too.

new blog everyone

I'm not talking only Kyrou, but Nylander had 2 60 point seasons before his contract. This past season was the only good one of Kyrou's career, and he did it at an older age than Nylander did. Swing and a miss.

I'm talking about a lot of guys and the contracts they're signing.

Jordan Kyrou, Tim Stützle, Josh Norris, Mikhail Sergachev, Anthony Cirelli, Erik Cernak, Valeri Nichushkin, Tage Thompson

Completely and entirely irrelevant if the CAP goes up or not, these guys got insane $$$.

Hell, it could also be argued that Tkachuk got an insane contract, too.
- GreatGigInTheSky

The cap going up is absolutely relevant if you’re signing an 8 year deal

"And I thought being a rapper was dangerous. Being a Russian oligarch is like...um... playing Russian Roulette."
- 21peter

I wonder if Russians call it " American Roulette "

I wonder if Russians call it " American Roulette "
- bixll

The cap going up is absolutely relevant if you’re signing an 8 year deal
- Canada Cup

Going from really overpaid to just overpaid still makes them... overpaid.

The problem if they hold one to Muzzin to long is that his contract will become an anchor.. If he struggles again this year, you have to move him sooner rather than later, or Dubas may be forced to add a draft pick just to trade him
- PatC80

Muzzy is almost a slamdunk for a trade/dump or, at worst, a buyout next summer when his NMC goes away.

Use him this year and hope he stays healthy and has enough gas. Next summer ...buh bye ....

Going from really overpaid to just overpaid still makes them... overpaid.
- GreatGigInTheSky

He was way over-paid..

If he does that, the cockroaches will rule the earth
- Zezel

Dr. Steven Falken believed it would be the bees who would start over.

Never said that at all. But anyone that thinks these contracts are justified by projections is crazy. You’re not only assuming the cap grows as expected but you’re also assuming the player progresses as you’re projecting. There is big risk involved. Obviously these GMs are consciously taking these risks or they don’t care about the long term implications.

I don’t know if NHL teams employ actuaries but many corporations use complex math to calculate such risk.
- TurdFergeson

There is a reason gms and agents use cap % and not actual cap, that is all