Only 18 forwards drafted outside of the first round from 2000-2016 have become "star" (200+ NHL games with .70 PPG average) players. None drafted by the Flyers. Bruins lead the way with three (Bergy, Marchand, Krejci) players. Roughly 1800 players or 1%.

Those that base Couturier's value on point production are clueless and dont know the game

Couturier's value and point production are useless and I dont know the game
- THE BLACK HAND

wow yeah

Those that base Couturier's value on point production are clueless and dont know the game
- THE BLACK HAND

What value does he bring that would have trumped what he would have received in a trade at the 2021 deadline?

Wrong per usual

1) what are coots averages? 30 goals /70 points? Nope wrong.


- Stayin alive

What matter for a player is what is his production leading up to his contract year. In the 4 seasons leading up to Couturier contract expiration year, his scoring totals were as follows

17/18 82 GP 31G 45A 76 Pts .37 G/GP .54 A/GP .92 Pts/GP
18/19 80 GP 33G 43A 76 Pts .41 G/GP .53 A/GP .95 Pts/GP
19/20 69 GP 22G 37A 59 Pts .31 G/GP .53 A/GP .85 Pts/GP
20/21 45 GP 18G 23A 41 Pts .40 G/GP .51 A/GP .91 Pt/GP

Very consistent sample over a 4 season period. Well worth 7.75M a year

2) 1 time selke win does not equal Bergy type of selke play expectation. And I’ll add his d play has clearly trended downward last few years for many reasons
- Stayin alive

Couturier has won the Selke, finished 2nd once and has finished in the top 10 in Selke voting 5 times in his career.

What exactly was I wrong about?

Fine since those in the back can’t/won’t pay attention

Another poster the other day stated they received I believe the hockey news fantasy edition and he said coots was lowest 1c projected point total. Of all the highest point projection on team coots was 55. Lowest among 1c
- Stayin alive

I'd like to see it. So why are you using a fantasy hockey projection as if it is a fact?

Couturier is overvalued in this board. He is certainly a very good player, but the ESPN+ article a poster (I think BigE88 is his name) last summer showed that poll of GMs from other teams and he did not get a single top 10 vote. Couple in his age, and his history of injuries, and the hard minutes he plays, and I would say that if he got a 9m contract, it would have been from a team offering 5-6 years.

Here is a list of $/point for centers last year (standard contract, UFA status on expiriy).

If Couturier scores 70 points this year for that AAV of 7.75, that would be around $111k/point and he would still rank in the bottom 20%. He is in the realm of Malkin.

McDavid, Bergeron, Danault, Matthews, Aho, Hiscier are all cheaper.

I don't see much evidence of the "steal"
- PT21

https://theathletic.com/1...overstate-for-the-flyers/

For your reading pleasure. Perhaps you need to consider more than just the points that Couturier puts up. Why are you so narrow focused. As you said to another poster the other day.

If someone gives up $ in AAV and makes up for it in term and buyout proofness, how can any part of that contract be termed a steal?
- PT21

Due to the lower AAV which aids the team in other areas if the savings are used smartly. On the open UFA market, normally a player like Couturier can get all of those factors plus the higher cap hit

Don’t forget

1) he’s a selke winner
2) unlike EVERY other 1c in the league he ACTUALLY 100% makes his wingers better 🙄

You have to figure that in
- Stayin alive

He is a Selke winner and nobody has stated unlike every other 1C in the league. It's fun embarrassing you.

What value does he bring that would have trumped what he would have received in a trade at the 2021 deadline?
- furio16

With Fletcher making the trade hahahahahhahhaahahaa,

Those that base Couturier's value on point production are clueless and dont know the game
- THE BLACK HAND

Ha. I have been reading this for Richarderty-doo years now. He is a #1c and his point production doesn't capture his true value? ok fine, what exactly does then? Is it some mystic, voodoo thing? Is he going to offer his house for Foerster and Gauthier like Briere did for Giroux?

Couturier's best years 2017-2020: Ranked 15th among centers in possession. ; He ranks 47th in iXG/60.

The only thing I did find that is elite is some justification of "he makes teammates better", namely his relative possession stats, 2nd in the league for that period.

Ha. I have been reading this for Richarderty-doo years now. He is a #1c and his point production doesn't capture his true value? ok fine, what exactly does then? Is it some mystic, voodoo thing? Is he going to offer his house for Foerster and Gauthier like Briere did for Giroux?

Couturier's best years 2017-2020: Ranked 15th among centers in possession. ; He ranks 47th in iXG/60.

The only thing I did find that is elite is some justification of "he makes teammates better", namely his relative possession stats, 2nd in the league for that period.
- PT21

How about deployment and who he plays against?

https://theathletic.com/1121825/2019/08/08/more-elite-than-you-think-sean-couturiers-value-hard-to-overstate-for-the-flyers/

For your reading pleasure. Perhaps you need to consider more than just the points that Couturier puts up. Why are you so narrow focused. As you said to another poster the other day.
- MJL

I read this article. Thanks.

Most of the first part of this article points out how good Couturier is for the Flyers. No argument there, but I am more interested how good he is leaguewide:

So, here is the meat of the argument for leaguewide comparisons:

A case can be made that there’s no better play-driver in hockey right now than Sean Couturier.

Evolving-Hockey’s Regularized-Adjusted Plus Minus stat (RAPM) attempts to isolate true play-driving ability from all outside factors, such as teammate impact, quality of competition and zone deployment. Unsurprisingly, Couturier graded out near the top of the charts for forwards in 2018-19 — 16th by expected goal RAPM and seventh by Corsi RAPM. But this wasn’t just one good advanced stat year for Couturier. Over the past three seasons combined, he’s looked even better.

Since 2016-17, no forward with at least 2,000 even-strength minutes has a better xG RAPM than Couturier. Not Sidney Crosby (second), Connor McDavid (23rd) or Patrice Bergeron (25th). When it comes to true talent, shot quality-adjusted play-driving, no forward tops Couturier. As for Corsi RAPM, Couturier doesn’t quite reach that same lofty perch — he’s merely second in the NHL, behind Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher.

In case you wondered whether Couturier’s ability to “drive play” has a real impact on goal differential, the 26-year-old checks in fourth when it comes to goal RAPM. Essentially, Couturier has driven up on-ice goal differentials more than all but three players over the last three years — McDavid, Mark Stone and Jake Gardiner.

As a result, Couturier’s impact on the 5-on-5 results of his linemates is staggering. Using Natural Stat Trick’s “Teammates” tool, we can check to see how much better (or worse) a player performs by stats like Corsi, xG and on-ice goal differential when skating with Couturier and invariably, Flyers skaters have done far better with Couturier over the past three seasons than away from him.

In terms of the stats where he excels leaguewide, look at the company he keeps. Brendan Gallagher. Mark Stone. Jake Gardiner (forget McDavid for obvious reasons).

So, to summarize, Couts points do not do him justice. The metrics that do, rank him way up there, with Gallagher, Stone and Gardiner?

I'm not "defending" it either. Merely pointing out that there are very few clear cut alternatives to picking the guy when they did. You can't point to more than a few and say that guy was clearly a better option. Sure he was a high risk pick in the grand scheme, they already had hit by having Farabee fall to them and took a risk picking O'Brien. But as I said, you can only pick who was available and no one in that draft can be looked at as a clear cut bonafide #1 gotta pick him type player. The stats and results bear that out.

No one is arguing they took a chance on his skillset panning out. But to say there was a clear cut no question about it player that was a better choice, to this point, is not the case. Miller, Sandin can be argued, but that is 2 out of 197 players.

Yes, in the end the result will tell the tale if he never makes the NHL. But even if that happens, he will just be one of 169 other players chosen after him who didn't make it either.
- MBFlyerfan

disagree. This was a very risky pick. others were ranked higher and played against better competition during the draft year. Jay was only playing against other high school talent. Then look at organizational needs. it was a bad pick then and questioned, hindsight has proven that now. i would argeue more than the two you listed. Miller was one of the ones i wanted. veleno another, and samuleson. just me though. i can look and probably add another 10 names. jay wouldve been available in round 2 or even 3.

I disagree on Farabee. He has scored the 5th most points from that draft class despite being the 14th overall pick. 2 more points than Kotkaniemi (#3) who has played 67 more games.
- MBFlyerfan

if there was a redraft farabee would go in the top ten, easily, maybe even 6th overall.

What matter for a player is what is his production leading up to his contract year. In the 4 seasons leading up to Couturier contract expiration year, his scoring totals were as follows

17/18 82 GP 31G 45A 76 Pts .37 G/GP .54 A/GP .92 Pts/GP
18/19 80 GP 33G 43A 76 Pts .41 G/GP .53 A/GP .95 Pts/GP
19/20 69 GP 22G 37A 59 Pts .31 G/GP .53 A/GP .85 Pts/GP
20/21 45 GP 18G 23A 41 Pts .40 G/GP .51 A/GP .91 Pt/GP

Very consistent sample over a 4 season period. Well worth 7.75M a year





Couturier has won the Selke, finished 2nd once and has finished in the top 10 in Selke voting 5 times in his career.

What exactly was I wrong about?
- MJL

You want example of a “steal” contract?

Go look at what the record selke 5 time winner just signed. That’s a “steal” now compare it to slightly above average coots

Those that base Couturier's value on point production are clueless and dont know the game
- THE BLACK HAND

Those that put such high value on on these intangibles that can be gotten for far cheaper are clueless and don’t know the game

I'd like to see it. So why are you using a fantasy hockey projection as if it is a fact?
- MJL

I’m not. You asked. I gave answer.

Again I project 22 goals 30 assist 52 points.

You on other hand will NOT put in writing what YOU project his totals will be.

I also added he will do squat to “help” team. This team sucks with or without coots. They will finish bottom 3. Won’t score 200 goals.

Put your $ where your big fraud mouth is and put it down in writing.


You won’t because you know you are wrong.

That coots isn’t getting anywhere near 30 goals or 70 points. And this team sucks.


But that doesn’t fit your narrative of how much a steal coots deal is and how much he makes wingers better.

Fraud

Those that put such high value on on these intangibles that can be gotten for far cheaper are clueless and don’t know the game
- Stayin alive

I am just curious who he is making better as I dont see it as it translates to points.

Ex selke is the wring fit for where this team is currently. I hope he has 100 points and they finish 8-13 range. This is what this organization deserves.

I read this article. Thanks.

Most of the first part of this article points out how good Couturier is for the Flyers. No argument there, but I am more interested how good he is leaguewide:

So, here is the meat of the argument for leaguewide comparisons:

A case can be made that there’s no better play-driver in hockey right now than Sean Couturier.

Evolving-Hockey’s Regularized-Adjusted Plus Minus stat (RAPM) attempts to isolate true play-driving ability from all outside factors, such as teammate impact, quality of competition and zone deployment. Unsurprisingly, Couturier graded out near the top of the charts for forwards in 2018-19 — 16th by expected goal RAPM and seventh by Corsi RAPM. But this wasn’t just one good advanced stat year for Couturier. Over the past three seasons combined, he’s looked even better.

Since 2016-17, no forward with at least 2,000 even-strength minutes has a better xG RAPM than Couturier. Not Sidney Crosby (second), Connor McDavid (23rd) or Patrice Bergeron (25th). When it comes to true talent, shot quality-adjusted play-driving, no forward tops Couturier. As for Corsi RAPM, Couturier doesn’t quite reach that same lofty perch — he’s merely second in the NHL, behind Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher.

In case you wondered whether Couturier’s ability to “drive play” has a real impact on goal differential, the 26-year-old checks in fourth when it comes to goal RAPM. Essentially, Couturier has driven up on-ice goal differentials more than all but three players over the last three years — McDavid, Mark Stone and Jake Gardiner.

As a result, Couturier’s impact on the 5-on-5 results of his linemates is staggering. Using Natural Stat Trick’s “Teammates” tool, we can check to see how much better (or worse) a player performs by stats like Corsi, xG and on-ice goal differential when skating with Couturier and invariably, Flyers skaters have done far better with Couturier over the past three seasons than away from him.

In terms of the stats where he excels leaguewide, look at the company he keeps. Brendan Gallagher. Mark Stone. Jake Gardiner (forget McDavid for obvious reasons).

So, to summarize, Couts points do not do him justice. The metrics that do, rank him way up there, with Gallagher, Stone and Gardiner?
- PT21

Those players are in the tops of the league. Stone may very well be the best all around winger in the league. Gardiner has always been a high analytics player but sheltered.

https://theathletic.com/1121825/2019/08/08/more-elite-than-you-think-sean-couturiers-value-hard-to-overstate-for-the-flyers/

For your reading pleasure. Perhaps you need to consider more than just the points that Couturier puts up. Why are you so narrow focused. As you said to another poster the other day.
- MJL

Really the athletic?? Hahahahaahahahahaahahahahah

Talk about last place to go for projections. And I’m curious.

I’ll bite

In article does it give any projections?


I’m betting no

O'Brien was a slight reach by Hextall at the time he was drafted, many thought O'Brien was going to get selected late 1st round, early second. I know Boston was one of the teams that wanted him. He was always considered to be a bit of a project coming from the high school he played in, and thus it was expected his road to the NHL would be a couple years longer than the typical forward. What has set O'Brien back is his injuries. This past season his hip was the issue, a similar injury to Tanner Laczynski and Brink. When he is on the ice and locked in he is producing at a point per game pace and I think he can be even better that this. We'll find out this year at BU, if he has another year where he can't stay on the ice, I don't see the Flyers at least signing him to a pro contract.
- jd250

curious as to your definition of slight.

every year or almost everyone gets really excited about the dominant seniors in college hockey that are hitting free agency. remember testwuide?

Ha. I have been reading this for Richarderty-doo years now. He is a #1c and his point production doesn't capture his true value? ok fine, what exactly does then? Is it some mystic, voodoo thing? Is he going to offer his house for Foerster and Gauthier like Briere did for Giroux?

Couturier's best years 2017-2020: Ranked 15th among centers in possession. ; He ranks 47th in iXG/60.

The only thing I did find that is elite is some justification of "he makes teammates better", namely his relative possession stats, 2nd in the league for that period.
- PT21

Sounds like a great 2c

What team does he play on? We should trade for him

I’m not. You asked. I gave answer.


- Stayin alive

Of course you are. You've replied with it numerous times. Are you that clueless to not even know what you post.

But that doesn’t fit your narrative of how much a steal coots deal is and how much he makes wingers better.

Fraud
- Stayin alive

Not a narrative, just facts and some opinion.

Every post you make, the noose just gets tighter as I give you more rope. Same the Gaudreau fiasco. Is there anyone you can call? Phone a friend?

Really the athletic?? Hahahahaahahahahaahahahahah

Talk about last place to go for projections. And I’m curious.

I’ll bite

In article does it give any projections?


I’m betting no
- Stayin alive

The article wasn't about projections or fantasy. Just full of facts that point out your ignorance.