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Forums :: Blog World :: Kevin Francis: Will Pierre Dorion acquire a top 4 defenseman this summer?!
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AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Jul 28 @ 3:28 PM ET
Past 4 seasons (goals per 82 games):

57.68 - Austin Matthews (11.64m)
52.35 - Alex Ovechkin (9.50m)
50.79 - Leon Draisaitl (8.50m)
46.77 - David Pastrnak (6.67m)
44.83 - Connor McDavid (12.5m)
42.27 - Steven Stamkos (8.50m)
41.28 - Kyle Connor (7.14m)
37.85 - Alex DeBrincat
*Past 2 years, DeBrincat is 44.67*

Alex DeBrincat (goals/points per 82 games*)

2018-2019: 41 goals, 76 points *
2019-2020: 21 goals, 53 points
2020-2021: 50 goals, 88 points*
2021-2022: 41 goals, 78 points

Alex DeBrincat, on a 8 year deal is worth: 7.75-9.5m a season. Therefore would you be good with 8 years @8.625m?
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jul 28 @ 4:55 PM ET
Past 4 seasons (goals per 82 games):

57.68 - Austin Matthews (11.64m)
52.35 - Alex Ovechkin (9.50m)
50.79 - Leon Draisaitl (8.50m)
46.77 - David Pastrnak (6.67m)
44.83 - Connor McDavid (12.5m)
42.27 - Steven Stamkos (8.50m)
41.28 - Kyle Connor (7.14m)
37.85 - Alex DeBrincat
*Past 2 years, DeBrincat is 44.67*

Alex DeBrincat (goals/points per 82 games*)

2018-2019: 41 goals, 76 points *
2019-2020: 21 goals, 53 points
2020-2021: 50 goals, 88 points*
2021-2022: 41 goals, 78 points

Alex DeBrincat, on a 8 year deal is worth: 7.75-9.5m a season. Therefore would you be good with 8 years @8.625m?

- AlfieisKing

I bet the Oilers are kicking themselves because they could be paying DeBrincat 4 million less a year than McDavid and still be getting pretty much the same goal production over the last couple of years.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 28 @ 5:57 PM ET
I bet the Oilers are kicking themselves because they could be paying DeBrincat 4 million less a year than McDavid and still be getting pretty much the same goal production over the last couple of years.
- Whatisavailable



I think more important question might be how many goals would DeBrincat have scored if McDavid had been setting him up.

DeBrincat played with Kane who scored 26 goals and had 66 assists, many of them were primary assists on Debrincat goals. Line was centred by Strome who had 22 goals and 26 assists.

This year DeBrincat will play with Stutzle 22 goals and 36 assists and Giroux 21 goals and 44 assists.


Do you think Stutzle can generate 66 assists playing with Debrincat and Giroux. I believe he can. I think Stutzle sees the ice exceptionally well and has the potential to be a brilliant playmaker. He now has a natural goal scorer on his wing. More than anything, I hope they are fun to watch.

Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 28 @ 7:18 PM ET
Sens sign M. Joseph to 4 years at 11.8M for an AAV of 2.95M. Nick Paul's agent asked for 4 years 11.5M after Ottawa offered him 4 years, 10M......hmmm.....
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 28 @ 7:27 PM ET
Sens sign M. Joseph to 4 years at 11.8M for an AAV of 2.95M. Nick Paul's agent asked for 4 years 11.5M after Ottawa offered him 4 years, 10M......hmmm.....
- Kevin Francis



Bigger contract than I expected. I am sure it was more than Sens had planned. Maybe he or someone else is heading out.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 28 @ 7:40 PM ET
Bigger contract than I expected. I am sure it was more than Sens had planned. Maybe he or someone else is heading out.
- spatso


If Formenton isn't retained, then yes, I could see that. The fact that Nick Paul wasn't offered the same kind of money, both term and AAV really makes me wonder.....I need to check later how much he made last year. Quite a jump in pay for a guy that put up points against Detroit and Montreal during a 9 game span before getting hurt. They were 2 of the worst teams.
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Jul 28 @ 7:41 PM ET
Sens sign M. Joseph to 4 years at 11.8M for an AAV of 2.95M. Nick Paul's agent asked for 4 years 11.5M after Ottawa offered him 4 years, 10M......hmmm.....
- Kevin Francis


Seems like quite a bit, but I guess the cap is rising. He's also two years younger than Paul.
Bartacus
Ottawa Senators
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 01.08.2019

Jul 28 @ 7:44 PM ET
Bigger contract than I expected. I am sure it was more than Sens had planned. Maybe he or someone else is heading out.
- spatso


Agreed a touch high, though serves to note Joseph put up as many points as Paul did with less deployment on a deep roster. It's a pretty safe gamble, he seems like a solid 3rd liner and 3 mil is what those cost. Plus the tear he went on at end of year, it's hard to look at his numbers and wonder what he might actually be capable of, I think it's good to get the term.
Panzer_IVA
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 01.02.2018

Jul 28 @ 8:01 PM ET
Seems like quite a bit, but I guess the cap is rising. He's also two years younger than Paul.
- david22

And there's no Melnyk factor in play today vs then.
Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Jul 28 @ 8:02 PM ET
Sens sign M. Joseph to 4 years at 11.8M for an AAV of 2.95M. Nick Paul's agent asked for 4 years 11.5M after Ottawa offered him 4 years, 10M......hmmm.....
- Kevin Francis

Quite a contract for a 3rd liner who only likely has a ceiling of 30+ points a year. I'm not a huge fan of signing depth players to long contracts. Creates problems down the road. I did like his game down the stretch but he was also playing for a contract and his best production was against poor teams. It's a bit of a risk. I wouldn't want to give Paul or Joseph those contracts where they are players that can be replaced by cheaper options with shorter terms. Hopefully, the cap ceiling rises a bit down the road.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 28 @ 8:22 PM ET
And there's no Melnyk factor in play today vs then.
- Panzer_IVA


True
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 28 @ 8:25 PM ET
Quite a contract for a 3rd liner who only likely has a ceiling of 30+ points a year. I'm not a huge fan of signing depth players to long contracts. Creates problems down the road. I did like his game down the stretch but he was also playing for a contract and his best production was against poor teams. It's a bit of a risk. I wouldn't want to give Paul or Joseph those contracts where they are players that can be replaced by cheaper options with shorter terms. Hopefully, the cap ceiling rises a bit down the road.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0


Exactly, it's quite the jump in pay for him....737,500 each of the last 2 years. He better be scoring more than 30-40pts. to hear almost 3M a year. Plus the 3rd line should get some weaker lines to match up against due to how strong the Sens top two lines will be. I just wonder Formenton thinks he's worth after seeing this deal?!
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 28 @ 8:26 PM ET
Quite a contract for a 3rd liner who only likely has a ceiling of 30+ points a year. I'm not a huge fan of signing depth players to long contracts. Creates problems down the road. I did like his game down the stretch but he was also playing for a contract and his best production was against poor teams. It's a bit of a risk. I wouldn't want to give Paul or Joseph those contracts where they are players that can be replaced by cheaper options with shorter terms. Hopefully, the cap ceiling rises a bit down the road.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0


This contract won't work long term. It would make sense if it was being moved or if Formenton or someone else was heading out. Dorion has performed pretty well this summer. So, I assume they have something else happening that will add more meaning to this deal.


Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 28 @ 8:28 PM ET
Agreed a touch high, though serves to note Joseph put up as many points as Paul did with less deployment on a deep roster. It's a pretty safe gamble, he seems like a solid 3rd liner and 3 mil is what those cost. Plus the tear he went on at end of year, it's hard to look at his numbers and wonder what he might actually be capable of, I think it's good to get the term.
- Bartacus


Each team is different when it comes to 3rd line salaries, depending on what they have their in top 6. Formenton scored 18 goals.....last year....he will be looking for more than Joseph!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 28 @ 8:29 PM ET
This contract won't work long term. It would make sense if it was being moved or if Formenton or someone else was heading out. Dorion has performed pretty well this summer. So, I assume they have something else happening that will add more meaning to this deal.
- spatso


They have to sign Formenton and Brannstrom, with 7.9M left in cap space. This team needs to unload Zaitsev if they are going to bring an top 4 D man now, with the cap space tightening up!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 28 @ 8:31 PM ET
This contract won't work long term. It would make sense if it was being moved or if Formenton or someone else was heading out. Dorion has performed pretty well this summer. So, I assume they have something else happening that will add more meaning to this deal.
- spatso

So Formenton is 3 years younger....then after this year what will Pinto want....you cant be paying your 3rd liners.....all of them 3M plus to each of them....it wont work with the cap!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 28 @ 8:34 PM ET
Seems like quite a bit, but I guess the cap is rising. He's also two years younger than Paul.
- david22


So if you use that philosophy, Formenton is 3 years younger than Joseph....what will Alex want now?!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 28 @ 8:38 PM ET
This might get me yelled at a bit in here haha, but what would we think of prying seth Jones outta chicago, I'm sure he does not want to stick around for 5 yrs for the team to compete again, he has a full NMC though, age 27-35 term. But if we were to intice him to waive, he could be perfect.
He is 9.5 mil I understand that, but if chicago were to keep 2 million of that for 4-5 yrs (how long they are rebuilding so it wont affect them) and the cap escalation will take care of the 2 mil in a few years anyways. $15.5 million on 2 anchors on the blueline for the next 5 yrs is acceptable. A trade could look something like

To Ottawa: Jones

To Chicago: 2023 first (unprotected) JBD/sokolov/one of our goalie prospects/insert pick/other prospect here

It's a Kings ransom for him, but that's what the 2mil cap relief is worth, maybe we could unload zaitsev in that trade aswell.

I am sure others could come up with a better or more even trade package, just spit-ballin here.

May be worth looking into, takes a butload of pressure off Chabot, balances the defense completely, we would have Chabot or Jones on the ice for 45+ mins a game, help the young guns learn on the fly.
It may mean trading debrincat if he wants too much at the end of the year, but we could get back most of what we traded him for, and Chicago is taking so much flack for the return, they may want to try and get more than Jones is worth from us to balance it out lol.
I have zero idea if he would Waive his NMC though and may just be a pipe dream lol.

Thoughts?

- RyeDog13


They cant be paying another Dman over 8 or 9M....unless Chicago wants to pick up 25-50% of his salary!!
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 28 @ 8:45 PM ET
So if you use that philosophy, Formenton is 3 years younger than Joseph....what will Alex want now?!
- Kevin Francis


No way Joseph would have got that award in arbitration. So, why did the Sens offer more than what would have happened had they just let arbitration proceed? I assume something will happen that can make sense out of this.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 28 @ 8:54 PM ET
So if you use that philosophy, Formenton is 3 years younger than Joseph....what will Alex want now?!
- Kevin Francis


So, either Formenton or Joseph is heading out? If so, it would be to a team with lots of cap space.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 28 @ 9:05 PM ET
So, either Formenton or Joseph is heading out? If so, it would be to a team with lots of cap space.
- spatso


Well depending on the fallout from the WJ scandal....it could very well be Formenton, time will tell I guess......but PD needs to the last 2 RFA's figured out!
Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Jul 28 @ 9:15 PM ET
No way Joseph would have got that award in arbitration. So, why did the Sens offer more than what would have happened had they just let arbitration proceed? I assume something will happen that can make sense out of this.
- spatso

This is the thing that confuses me as well. Arbitration would have been a better route for a team looking to start spending. I am not an expert on arbitration but seems like it could have had a shorter term deal. It's been a win of a summer for Dorion, but this is the first real move that has made me raise an eyebrow in doubt. While lineup depth is important, most championship teams don't have 3rd and 4th liners locked up for 4 years.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 28 @ 9:18 PM ET
No way Joseph would have got that award in arbitration. So, why did the Sens offer more than what would have happened had they just let arbitration proceed? I assume something will happen that can make sense out of this.
- spatso


No way he would have got more than 1.5M in arb....he was earning 737k last year...I don't get this at all!
RyeDog13
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 05.03.2018

Jul 28 @ 9:23 PM ET
They cant be paying another Dman over 8 or 9M....unless Chicago wants to pick up 25-50% of his salary!!
- Kevin Francis


But $7-7.5 million? like I said, retaining salary for 4-5 yrs of the deal until their rebuild is over, the cap will be alot higher (supposedly) by the time that comes off the books. Still probably a pipe dream, but I don't think it's a terrible idea to have 15 mil on your top 2 defenders with a poop load of young defense coming up and that could be bridged to help with the cap
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 28 @ 9:33 PM ET
But $7-7.5 million? like I said, retaining salary for 4-5 yrs of the deal until their rebuild is over, the cap will be alot higher (supposedly) by the time that comes off the books. Still probably a pipe dream, but I don't think it's a terrible idea to have 15 mil on your top 2 defenders with a poop load of young defense coming up and that could be bridged to help with the cap
- RyeDog13


As long as they arent giving up a ton is the big question! But until the Zaitsev thing is resolved, plus Formenton...this team is in limbo for a top 4 dman.
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