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Forums :: Blog World :: Kevin Francis: Will Pierre Dorion acquire a top 4 defenseman this summer?!
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spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 26 @ 4:37 PM ET
I’m confused by the above. I am not sure how Debrincat would be too pricey for the Sens but a steal for the rest of the NHL because of the cap crunch? Assuming the awful contracts are gone by the end of next year, there will be room for resigning of big names (Debrincat and Stu), assuming the team continues to give out cash like they have lately.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0


It is not going to be easy. Cap is going to be $83.5m. Sens should end the year with a payroll around $75m.

Not enough if you assume increases to Pinto $1m, Zub $2.5m, Stutzle $7.0m and Debrincat $2.5. Also, Talbot is on the last year his deal and may be looking for an increase. Something more may need to go.

I assume they will save $3m on Hamonic. I further assume Zaitsev is gone but replaced by another continuing cost in the same $4.5m range.

The following year involves only a small cap increase again. But the Sens gain $5.0 in from the dead cap space allocation (Bobby Ryan, Matt Murray...)

I think they can do it. But it is very tight. They will need to move out a big salary if any one of the guys not already under a long term deals has a monster year and demands huge money.

But, so far, you would have to give Dorion an A+ on the budget.

Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jul 26 @ 4:57 PM ET
I’m confused by the above. I am not sure how Debrincat would be too pricey for the Sens but a steal for the rest of the NHL because of the cap crunch? Assuming the awful contracts are gone by the end of next year, there will be room for resigning of big names (Debrincat and Stu), assuming the team continues to give out cash like they have lately.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

This what I wrote:

DeBrincat will need to be moved next summer because there won't be the money to pay him what he'll want. Almost nobody will have the money to pay him what he'll want so somebody is going to get a really good deal.

- Whatisavailable

___________________________________________________________________

I clearly stated that almost nobody will have the money to pay him what he'll want so somebody is going to get a really good deal.

It's funny how when you don't like hearing something you can get confused and see that as meaning the rest of the league won't have a problem. I can see how something you just made up in your head might be confusing to you.

There are GMs that will be making out like bandits next year. Dorion will not be one of them but if he succeeds in digging a deeper hole the team might grab a wild card spot. Yaaaay!
Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Jul 26 @ 5:53 PM ET
This what I wrote:

DeBrincat will need to be moved next summer because there won't be the money to pay him what he'll want. Almost nobody will have the money to pay him what he'll want so somebody is going to get a really good deal.

- Whatisavailable

___________________________________________________________________

I clearly stated that almost nobody will have the money to pay him what he'll want so somebody is going to get a really good deal.

It's funny how when you don't like hearing something you can get confused and see that as meaning the rest of the league won't have a problem. I can see how something you just made up in your head might be confusing to you.

There are GMs that will be making out like bandits next year. Dorion will not be one of them but if he succeeds in digging a deeper hole the team might grab a wild card spot. Yaaaay!

- Whatisavailable

But why can't Ottawa be the team to get that good deal? This is assuming the Sens try to be a cap team. As spatso said above, it will be tough but doable. Dorion won't be able to afford crummy contracts like he has had in the past.

Worst case, you have to trade him for a very similar package you did to acquire him.
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Jul 26 @ 6:58 PM ET
But why can't Ottawa be the team to get that good deal? This is assuming the Sens try to be a cap team. As spatso said above, it will be tough but doable. Dorion won't be able to afford crummy contracts like he has had in the past.

Worst case, you have to trade him for a very similar package you did to acquire him.

- Gord_Wilson_2.0

The reason why it's better to get Stutzle and DeBrincat locked up is because they have the potential to score 150 points and 65-70+ goals when healthy
Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Jul 26 @ 7:28 PM ET
The reason why it's better to get Stutzle and DeBrincat locked up is because they have the potential to score 150 points and 65-70+ goals when healthy
- AlfieisKing

Like I get the upcoming cap concerns but there is still lots of possibilities to make it work for the organization. However, as always, important to succeed while players are on affordable contracts while they production is in their prime, hence why it's not a terrible idea to try and go for it in the next few seasons.

It's unchartered waters for the Senators as they have never been close to the cap ceiling. It's understandable that it's an uncomfortable feeling. Heck, concerns were getting to the cap floor a couple of seasons ago. Quite the 180.
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jul 26 @ 7:54 PM ET
But why can't Ottawa be the team to get that good deal? This is assuming the Sens try to be a cap team. As spatso said above, it will be tough but doable. Dorion won't be able to afford crummy contracts like he has had in the past.

Worst case, you have to trade him for a very similar package you did to acquire him.

- Gord_Wilson_2.0

Well we're going to get to find out.

My thinking has always been that we already have our stars either already playing or just about to. They were just too young and needed a little time to mature which was fine.

Then there's the depth players without whom you're not going anywhere. What are you going to pay Formenton or Joseph or JBD or Greig and do you really think earmarking an extra million for Pinto is going to be enough? And what about the year after when the cap is still going to be about the same? How many league minimum guys do you want on the team?

You would think we would have learned from the Toronto debacle. I've said it before and I'll say it again - any bozo can take a team with tons of cap space and lots of picks and prospects and make it immediately better. It takes a good hockey man to take that team and build a Cup winner and - NEWSFLASH - Dorion is not that guy.
Barrykerr1
Joined: 08.06.2014

Jul 26 @ 8:22 PM ET
Like I get the upcoming cap concerns but there is still lots of possibilities to make it work for the organization. However, as always, important to succeed while players are on affordable contracts while they production is in their prime, hence why it's not a terrible idea to try and go for it in the next few seasons.

It's unchartered waters for the Senators as they have never been close to the cap ceiling. It's understandable that it's an uncomfortable feeling. Heck, concerns were getting to the cap floor a couple of seasons ago. Quite the 180.

- Gord_Wilson_2.0



Eugene Melynk said he had the money to spend to the cap when the the rebuild was over. Most didn’t believe him, myself included. Losing your business, getting divorced, huge debts, the Lebreton Flats fiasco, low crowd attendance and being a perennial cap bottom feeder etc tend to indicate you don’t have the resources needed to compete with the big boys. It now looks like the Senators are back! Maybe the money is coming from the new partners for Lebreton Flats?

I think the management team has set Peirre Dorion free to make trades as he sees fit. What a performance so far in a month! Great job! I like the fact there has been no trade so far to get Chychrun yet, the asking price is probably ridiculous so why lose all this positive press by making a bad trade.

In regards to DJ Smith, he is a pawn for Dorion, if things go south especially another bad start to the season, Smith will be history.

PuckPix
Joined: 01.12.2021

Jul 26 @ 11:56 PM ET
Sad to hear that Bobby Ryan was arrested at the Nashville Airport for public intoxication. I know all you Sens fans supported him a few years ago when he battled that terrible disease, alcoholism. Hope Sens fans and hockey fans support him through his battle again.
PuckPix
Joined: 01.12.2021

Jul 26 @ 11:58 PM ET
The reason why it's better to get Stutzle and DeBrincat locked up is because they have the potential to score 150 points and 65-70+ goals when healthy
- AlfieisKing


How do you lock up DeBrincat long term when you don't know how he will fit in with his new team? For all the good the GM has done, he would look foolish giving him a long term deal right now.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 27 @ 7:26 AM ET
How do you lock up DeBrincat long term when you don't know how he will fit in with his new team? For all the good the GM has done, he would look foolish giving him a long term deal right now.
- PuckPix


If Dorion can lock in DeBrincat at $8.2m (Brady cap) on a long term deal he will receive outstanding accolades.

If he is not able to sign Debrincat next summer and decides to flip him for a good return of picks and prospects he will receive outstanding accolades.

The only way Dorion does not do well on this deal is if Debrincat turn out to be a dud. Not many are expecting a decline in his play. I am expecting him to thrive on a line with Stutzle and Giroux.
Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Jul 27 @ 8:39 AM ET
If Dorion can lock in DeBrincat at $8.2m (Brady cap) on a long term deal he will receive outstanding accolades.

If he is not able to sign Debrincat next summer and decides to flip him for a good return of picks and prospects he will receive outstanding accolades.

The only way Dorion does not do well on this deal is if Debrincat turn out to be a dud. Not many are expecting a decline in his play. I am expecting him to thrive on a line with Stutzle and Giroux.

- spatso


i think Brady and Co can convince him to stay in OTT, this team is close to being the next Tamp/Colorado, they just need that final top 4 RD, either Chych or Thompson/JBD play themselves into the top 4 and getting a real NHL coach an staff.
Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Jul 27 @ 9:32 AM ET
If Dorion can lock in DeBrincat at $8.2m (Brady cap) on a long term deal he will receive outstanding accolades.

If he is not able to sign Debrincat next summer and decides to flip him for a good return of picks and prospects he will receive outstanding accolades.

The only way Dorion does not do well on this deal is if Debrincat turn out to be a dud. Not many are expecting a decline in his play. I am expecting him to thrive on a line with Stutzle and Giroux.

- spatso

My one reservation with Debrincat is that he will no longer have Patrick Kane feeding him pucks. As good as Stutzle and Giroux are, they are not and probably will not equal the quality of Patrick Kane. Something to keep an eye on. Sens fans saw firsthand how a player thriving with a superstar fell flat in another environment in Dadanov.

I don’t think trying to keep Debrincat around for around 8 mill per on a new deal would be super difficult unless Debrincat reaches a new level of play while in Ottawa, which isn’t the worst problem in the world.

Debrincat could certainly regress but that would make contracts talks easier or you move on from him and trade him for a deal similar to the one made to acquire him. Lots of teams would be hella interested in adding him for a playoff run hoping he can find his form.

Any foreseen issues Debrincat brings, do not supersede adding him to an exciting young lineup to try and improve.
Octavarium
New York Islanders
Joined: 01.03.2007

Jul 27 @ 9:34 AM ET
I wonder if we could pry Matt Dumba out of Minny. And if he'd agree to wave to come here.....
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Jul 27 @ 1:00 PM ET
Like I get the upcoming cap concerns but there is still lots of possibilities to make it work for the organization. However, as always, important to succeed while players are on affordable contracts while they production is in their prime, hence why it's not a terrible idea to try and go for it in the next few seasons.

It's unchartered waters for the Senators as they have never been close to the cap ceiling. It's understandable that it's an uncomfortable feeling. Heck, concerns were getting to the cap floor a couple of seasons ago. Quite the 180.

- Gord_Wilson_2.0

Good point Gord

What I MIGHT be on board for is Tim Stutzle signing a bridge. DeBrincat is going to want $9m+ if he scores 40 goals.

Ex. Sign Tim Stutzle 3 years @6m (have him for 4 more years from now, then RFA so sign 8 year deal)
Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuub
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 10.28.2021

Jul 27 @ 1:09 PM ET
I wonder if we could pry Matt Dumba out of Minny. And if he'd agree to wave to come here.....
- Octavarium


In theory it's a good fit, and would be likely possible to get him to commit on a <$7M AAV a year deal to sign if he likes.

One interesting CF variable no one looks at very often is the amount of NHL roster contracts signed, where each team is capped at 23. With the exception of a few laggards like us and Vegas, who are so, so screwed god bless 'em, all teams seem to have less than two open roster spaces available for NHL contracts. UFAs are screwed especially if they wanna choose their own destination now. That roster space flexibility is another key consideration above/beyond the salary cap moving forward.

I looked up, based on CapFriendly, all teams currently over the salary cap (who need to deal this summer) and the defensemen on those rosters that might be attainable. Any one of interest to me (imo...). I put an offer in brackets next to the names OTT could put forward if they we legitimately interested in acquiring them:

TBL: Phillippe Myers (4th and 5th rnd pick in 2023)

WSH: Nick Jensen (2nd rnd pick in 2023), Dmitri Orlov (Zaitsev w/ retained salary, 2nd 2023, 5th 2024)

FLA: Radko Gudas (4th rnd pick 2023, 3rd rnd pick 2025), Branden Montour (1st rnd pick top 10 protected 2023, Jonathan Aspirot and Viktor Lodin)

EDM: No great fits, maybe Slater Koekkoek or Barrie but OTT wouldnt want to pay the price

STL: No great fits

MIN: Matt Dumba (1st rnd pick 2023 top-10 protected if signed to extension, include Egor Sokolov or 2nd rnd pick 2024 either way), Alex Goligoski (two 4th rnd picks)


VGK: Theodore (1st rnd pick 2023, Parker Kelly, JBD, Mandolese), Zach Whitecloud (Ostapchuk, Lodin, 2nd rnd pick) - probably the best option potentially available given his contract security

VAN: Myers (not worth it), Travis Dermott (3rd rnd pick 2025, 4th round pick 2023)

PHI: No great fits unless Travis Sanheim is willing to play opposite side

PIT: Brian Dumoulin (2 2nd rnd picks 2024)

CBJ: Adam Boqvist (1st rnd pick 2024, JBD, Viktor Lodin), Jake Bean (1st rnd pick 2023 lottery protected, Maxence Guenette, Sokolov)

I think WSH and CBJ are the best ROIs for the players we'd be bringing in.
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Jul 27 @ 3:02 PM ET
Nice work above ^^^^
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Jul 27 @ 3:02 PM ET
What do people think of signing Anton Stralman? He has played A LOT of pk mins
Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Jul 27 @ 3:19 PM ET
What do people think of signing Anton Stralman? He has played A LOT of pk mins
- AlfieisKing

If you can get rid of Hamonic and Zaitsev this year, then he might have value on a 3rd pairing.

Chatbot-Zub
Sanderson-Top 4 D to come
Holden/Branstrom-Stralman

But I feel Hamonic is here to stay and Stralman is not a solution to the top 4 D at 35 years of age. He would be an upgrade over Zaitsev and probably Hamonic, but have to wonder how much more he has in the tank.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jul 27 @ 4:18 PM ET
What do people think of signing Anton Stralman? He has played A LOT of pk mins
- AlfieisKing

I've had that idea as well, but just seems a bit too far past his prime to help out with the top-4 situation. Another name that hasn't been mentioned that much is Erik Johnson. Colorado just signed Manson, and now have 5 guys making over $4M/yr on the blue line. Johnson isn't a spring chicken, but played roughly as much as anyone not named Makar, Toews, or Byram in their playoff run. I could see him being an an excellent mentor for Sanderson, and also fitting the bill in terms of a 1-year bridge until Thomson is a bit more seasoned. For Colorado it would also free up money to make a serious play for Kadri on a short-term UFA deal.


PogBoi
Season Ticket Holder
Ottawa Senators
Location: Barrie, ON
Joined: 08.27.2020

Jul 27 @ 4:36 PM ET
https://twitter.com/frank...tatus/1552367655356596226

Apparently Klingberg has changed agents.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 27 @ 4:42 PM ET

Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
I’m told free agent defenseman John Klingberg has parted ways with longtime agent Peter Wallen.

Klingberg is now being represented by Newport Sports Management.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 27 @ 4:42 PM ET
https://twitter.com/frank_seravalli/status/1552367655356596226

Apparently Klingberg has changed agents.

- PogBoi


Lol, I thought I hit enter an hour ago lol.....but I guess I didn't....
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 27 @ 6:03 PM ET
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
I’m told free agent defenseman John Klingberg has parted ways with longtime agent Peter Wallen.

Klingberg is now being represented by Newport Sports Management.

- Kevin Francis


This is really a very strange time. Makes you wonder if the player believes he was getting bad advice or was being misled by his agent.

Johnny Gaudreau did get a long term deal. But for the most part, teams cannot take the risk of giving long term contracts to guys who are in the 30 year age range.

The issue is always term and it is going to get much more hardened over the next three years. Teams cannot afford to sign UFAs to big deals and risk losing their own RFAs. So they are all wanting RFAs to sign long term deals and trying to get UFAs to sign on for shorter term.

The trade of Tkachuk for Huberdeau and Weegar plus plus tells you exactly where the market is going. Hopefully Pierre Dorion remembers that although your future may be built around your RFAs; the teams that actually win Stanley Cups are usually older and have a strong sprinkling of quality veterans in their line up.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 27 @ 6:10 PM ET
Murray Pam
@Pammerhockey
UFA D John Klingberg now represented by Craig Oster. Oster is the agent for Josh Norris and Brady Tkachuk.
Quote Tweet

PuckPedia
@PuckPedia
· 2h
Replying to @frank_seravalli
Further to @frank_seravalli's report, Klingberg's lead agent at @TheHockeyAgency will be Craig Oster.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 27 @ 6:25 PM ET
Murray Pam
@Pammerhockey
UFA D John Klingberg now represented by Craig Oster. Oster is the agent for Josh Norris and Brady Tkachuk.
Quote Tweet

PuckPedia
@PuckPedia
· 2h
Replying to @frank_seravalli
Further to @frank_seravalli's report, Klingberg's lead agent at @TheHockeyAgency will be Craig Oster.

- spatso


I will say this, he still wants a 7 year deal.....changing agents wont change what teams want to do. In fact, Dallas is now looking hard at re-signing him.
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