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Forums :: Blog World :: Kevin Francis: Alex DeBrincat traded to the Ottawa SenatorsQ
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Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Jul 12 @ 10:53 AM ET
Senators Should Avoid Acquiring Chychrun

https://thehockeywriters....avoid-acquiring-chychrun/

- HoweHatrick


That was written over 7 months ago
Cup 06
Ottawa Senators
Location: Tkachuk Town, ON
Joined: 03.01.2006

Jul 12 @ 11:01 AM ET
From Dreger :As of last night, quiet with Jake Chychrun on all fronts. Obviously, the Draft didn’t provide the right opportunity for Arizona to move him. So, let’s see if free agency with those that miss out or those that are boldly improving are willing to pay the price.


Echos what I heard. The time to get Chychrun was at the draft. That shipped has sailed. Sens could circle back but they are going to test the free agent route first.
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jul 12 @ 11:08 AM ET
Gotta be honest.

PD crushed the first trade, but the Murray deal was a bit disappointing for me... and here's why.

#1. Ottawa doesn't really need cap relief and somehow we are still paying 25%
#2. Even though they are nothing draft picks... We still gave up draft picks
#3. It was known that the leafs needed a goalie... Ottawa had all the upper hand
#4. We basically got nothing in return other than cap relief we don't need
#5. I think Gus is the future, but Murray played decent for about 20 games.

- Maverick1818

Concerning number 4 not to worry. There are plenty guys on here who know how to plunge the Sens into cap hell in a heartbeat.

I would have kept Murray and just put him on waivers. No one would take him and he'd be sitting there in case Forsberg or Gus got injured. Keep the picks. There are people on here making noise about Marino or Weeger who were 6th and 7th round picks.

With Forsberg and Gus as the goalies I wouldn't be trading away next year's first round pick unprotected. Gus may be the future and that future may begin this coming season but I would still play it safe.
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Jul 12 @ 11:11 AM ET
The man sees much the rest of us don't. Through prescription-less glasses, nonetheless. He's gambling that Murray will bounce back with the Soo connection, the two cups in the bag, and the right coaching pieces in place. IMO it's a huge gamble, MM is 3 years removed from playing meaningful hockey in a positive headspace.
- Bartacus


Its interesting that he'd make this gamble on the goaltending front, which seems to be a repeat of past attempts to address the leafs goaltending.

But is still unwilling to make a big trade via Nylander or Marner to address other areas of concern.

Does he still have confidence in what the team has, and feel the right tweak is all that's needed to get over the hump, of is he too wary to make a real change to the linup.
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jul 12 @ 11:16 AM ET
That was written over 7 months ago
- Mithos

Unfortunately we never got to see Thomson or JBD because Smith was playing his elite D like Zaitsev and Hamonic so the article is still pretty relevant and if Smith has his way again this year it will still be relevant next year.

They could have legitimate right side D and not even know it just like last year everybody was screaming for a number 1C and if not for all the injuries they'd still be screaming for a number 1C.
PavohnDatsvares
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.03.2016

Jul 12 @ 11:22 AM ET
We’ve got 25 pages of comments. Kevin, please do a new blog and stop updating this 5 day old post.

What’s that? Oh! You’re waiting for the Chychrun trade to make a new blog. My apologies.
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Jul 12 @ 11:28 AM ET
A lot of focus on Chychrun, any other defenceman people want them to target?

Weegar is a name i've heard pop up, but he's older, and on a team that is at a very different plce than Arizona.
GrimmdaGoalie
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 01.07.2016

Jul 12 @ 11:31 AM ET
For all of you wondering why the Leafs would want Murray over Campbell when the money is close comes down to TERM. Murray at two years vs Campbell/Keumper at 5 or 6. They don't want any unnecessary contract on the books when they have to give AM 12-13 million around that time.

spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 12 @ 11:47 AM ET
For all of you wondering why the Leafs would want Murray over Campbell when the money is close comes down to TERM. Murray at two years vs Campbell/Keumper at 5 or 6. They don't want any unnecessary contract on the books when they have to give AM 12-13 million around that time.
- GrimmdaGoalie


Good point.

Two years out is going to be a wickedly tough cap for everyone.

May also explain why teams are walking away from RFA's with arbitration rights. Nobody wants to commit to a process of negotiation through arbitration where the team does not have the right to say "no."
HoweHatrick
Joined: 01.02.2014

Jul 12 @ 11:55 AM ET
That was written over 7 months ago
- Mithos


Does that make the entire piece irrelevant?
HoweHatrick
Joined: 01.02.2014

Jul 12 @ 11:57 AM ET
Concerning number 4 not to worry. There are plenty guys on here who know how to plunge the Sens into cap hell in a heartbeat.
- Whatisavailable



PavohnDatsvares
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.03.2016

Jul 12 @ 12:00 PM ET
A lot of focus on Chychrun, any other defenceman people want them to target?

Weegar is a name i've heard pop up, but he's older, and on a team that is at a very different plce than Arizona.

- david22


Marino in Pittsburgh is the other name in rumours.
HoweHatrick
Joined: 01.02.2014

Jul 12 @ 12:18 PM ET
Sens place D Del Zotto on unconditional waivers for buyout

https://www.tsn.ca/ottawa...-buyout-waivers-1.1824503
Octavarium
New York Islanders
Joined: 01.03.2007

Jul 12 @ 12:29 PM ET
Sens place D Del Zotto on unconditional waivers for buyout

https://www.tsn.ca/ottawa...-buyout-waivers-1.1824503

- HoweHatrick


I wonder if he gets picked up
He's in the way though.... PD getting rid of all of the coaches toys.
HoweHatrick
Joined: 01.02.2014

Jul 12 @ 12:29 PM ET
I wonder if he gets picked up
He's in the way though.... PD getting rid of all of the coaches toys.

- Octavarium


I look at his signing as a mistake and this is simply an acknowledgement and a correction. I would be pleasantly surprised if he is picked up.
Bartacus
Ottawa Senators
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 01.08.2019

Jul 12 @ 12:30 PM ET
Sens place D Del Zotto on unconditional waivers for buyout

https://www.tsn.ca/ottawa...-buyout-waivers-1.1824503

- HoweHatrick


Oof. Needed to happen I guess, but unlike Murray, where we needed a goalie and he just didn't work out, here's a signing that should never have happened. Was MDZ a McGuire move?
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jul 12 @ 12:32 PM ET
I wonder if he gets picked up
He's in the way though.... PD getting rid of all of the coaches toys.

- Octavarium

Zaitsev is the guy that needs to go.
Bartacus
Ottawa Senators
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 01.08.2019

Jul 12 @ 12:33 PM ET
I wonder if he gets picked up
He's in the way though.... PD getting rid of all of the coaches toys.

- Octavarium


Not really... DJ wouldn't play MDZ, it's why he was waived down to the minors. His stats show he's really not a bad player, in fact one of our best performing blue liners last year, albeit limited sample. But exceptionally poorly managed. He will clear and be scooped for 750k and that buyer will be happy with what they get.
CooCooKaChoo
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 01.15.2008

Jul 12 @ 12:43 PM ET
Not really... DJ wouldn't play MDZ, it's why he was waived down to the minors. His stats show he's really not a bad player, in fact one of our best performing blue liners last year, albeit limited sample. But exceptionally poorly managed. He will clear and be scooped for 750k and that buyer will be happy with what they get.
- Bartacus


Going to be hard to convince older guys to come to Ottawa after how Del Zotto and Murray were treated by management. don't get me wrong, they are bad signings, but these guys were not treated well.

I'm happy with the moves that have been made this off season, it's obvious that Dorion has been given the green light to move this team forward, but there's so much wasted cap/potential/credibility on fixing all these mistakes.

Hopefully the Top 4 D gets brought in and the biggest mistake (Zaitsev) is moved out. That would make me hopeful for the season. Adding a guy like Giroux would be great as long as it doesn't screw us down the road for Stutzle/Zub.
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jul 12 @ 12:51 PM ET
Agreed. Gotta say all the pejorative little people talk is invalidated by the on ice contributions of many, many smaller statured players, including those who are cup champions. This isn't basketball, the kid can really play. Relax.
- Bartacus

Chicago got rid of the guy because they don't think he's worth 9 million which is what he gets next year and which is what a new contract will look like.

Ottawa fans need to get on their knees and pray that Pierre "Proudest Day Of My Life" Dorion doesn't saddle the team with one of the wee little people for 7 years at 9+ million because that would be the end of any Cup hopes right there.

Will DeBrincat score goals during the regular season? Sure he will. If they make the playoffs will he score goals? Not so much. Will the Sens ever have a chance of winning the Cup if this guy is on the team? Not a snowball's chance in hell.
HoweHatrick
Joined: 01.02.2014

Jul 12 @ 1:03 PM ET
Chicago got rid of the guy because they don't think he's worth 9 million which is what he gets next year and which is what a new contract will look like.

Ottawa fans need to get on their knees and pray that Pierre "Proudest Day Of My Life" Dorion doesn't saddle the team with one of the wee little people for 7 years at 9+ million because that would be the end of any Cup hopes right there.

Will DeBrincat score goals during the regular season? Sure he will. If they make the playoffs will he score goals? Not so much. Will the Sens ever have a chance of winning the Cup if this guy is on the team. Not a snowball's chance in hell.

- Whatisavailable



Bartacus
Ottawa Senators
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 01.08.2019

Jul 12 @ 1:12 PM ET
Chicago got rid of the guy because they don't think he's worth 9 million which is what he gets next year and which is what a new contract will look like.

Ottawa fans need to get on their knees and pray that Pierre "Proudest Day Of My Life" Dorion doesn't saddle the team with one of the wee little people for 7 years at 9+ million because that would be the end of any Cup hopes right there.

- Whatisavailable


Sure thing. DeBrincat is 24. 5'7. 307 points in 368 games.

Martin St. Louis is 24. 5'8 He's just made it into the NHL, scores 2 pts in 13 games with Calgary. Then:
18p in 56 age 25
40p in 78
35p in 53
70p in 82
94p in 82
Drops to 62p in 80 age 30
Then he goes well over a PPG until he's 38.

Their stat trajectories are very similar, just DeBrincat did it 5 years earlier.

DeBrincat's trajectory to date shows he's only going up. But hey - we have him for two years. Let's maybe see him play before we pull out our jump to conclusions mats. There is certainly precedent for small players to be worth their contracts. Gaudeau. Marchand. Zuccarello.
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jul 12 @ 1:14 PM ET

- HoweHatrick

There there, little Howie. It's OK. Everything is just fine. It's a well known fact that lots and lots and lots of 5'7" 165 lbs guys have spearheaded their NHL teams' drive to the Stanley Cup over the years which is why they're always paid more than everybody else on the team. Yes, yes, yes, you are soooo right.
Bartacus
Ottawa Senators
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 01.08.2019

Jul 12 @ 1:22 PM ET
There there, little Howie. It's OK. Everything is just fine. It's a well known fact that lots and lots and lots of 5'7" 165 lbs guys have spearheaded their NHL teams' drive to the Stanley Cup over the years which is why they're always paid more than everybody else on the team. Yes, yes, yes, you are soooo right.
- Whatisavailable


I get it. You're 5'7 and haven't been able to do it yourself, so it must be impossible.

St. Louis PPG in playoffs when TBL wins cup. 90/107 career. Gaudreau 33 in 42. Marchand 118 in 139. DeBrincat himself, 6 in 9. These are not bad numbers, and who says we are mandated to take his QO? If he has a strong year and still wants to walk to FA, he's still an asset that will be worth more than what we gave. The point is - numbers > hyperbolic confirmation bias. Evidence > conjecture.
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jul 12 @ 1:22 PM ET
Sure thing. DeBrincat is 24. 5'7. 307 points in 368 games.

Martin St. Louis is 24. 5'8 He's just made it into the NHL, scores 2 pts in 13 games with Calgary. Then:
18p in 56 age 25
40p in 78
35p in 53
70p in 82
94p in 82
Drops to 62p in 80 age 30
Then he goes well over a PPG until he's 38.

Their stat trajectories are very similar, just DeBrincat did it 5 years earlier.

DeBrincat's trajectory to date shows he's only going up. But hey - we have him for two years. Let's maybe see him play before we pull out our jump to conclusions mats. There is certainly precedent for small players to be worth their contracts. Gaudeau. Marchand. Zuccarello.

- Bartacus

All three of those guys are in the 6 million dollar range. Marchand has been on a team that he helped win a Cup but I would say Chara was the major factor there.
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