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Forums :: Blog World :: Kevin Francis: Will the Sens extend an RFA offer sheet? Potential trade targets and more!
Author Message
Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Jul 5 @ 9:18 PM ET
the kick to the go nabs of a failing franchise would be White signing for league minimum and scoring g 20+ goals 40+ points under a real NHL coach.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 5 @ 9:42 PM ET
the kick to the go nabs of a failing franchise would be White signing for league minimum and scoring g 20+ goals 40+ points under a real NHL coach.
- Mithos


We all know he was not used properly here.....injuries and covid hurt him this past season, but the year before DJ screwed him, talk to any media member that covered and they all tell you that. Just listen to Meth and Wally the last year about it! We wont have a real NHL coach until this team sells....same goes for the GM. Honestly, its so frustrating!
Trilla
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 06.02.2013

Jul 5 @ 9:50 PM ET
the kick to the go nabs of a failing franchise would be White signing for league minimum and scoring g 20+ goals 40+ points under a real NHL coach.
- Mithos



If he does, good on him.

In fairness White was given opportunities. Couldn’t stay healthy, didn’t do much when he was.

Add him to our 1st round failures list.
Trilla
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 06.02.2013

Jul 5 @ 10:09 PM ET
I’m reading a lot of fans are anxious to upgrade the team by trading the #7.

The biggest issue I have is the team has holes at every position..and it won’t take an off-season to fix it all.

-Top 6Rw
-true #1C
- at least 2 top 4dmen (I have less faith in the kids than most)
-a GOALIE

So stay the course, keep the pick, draft a quality forward/dman. See if a guy like giroux/trocheck can join.

Next years draft is stacked. I’m already doing my research because I provision another disappointing year for this team.
PavohnDatsvares
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.03.2016

Jul 6 @ 12:08 AM ET
Make that 90% of Sens fans....there are still a few who think DJ has been good for this team lol!

- Kevin Francis


I think DJ WAS good for this team. But not any longer. I doubt he is capable to get us to that next level. And he doesn’t seem to be very good at making in-game decisions. I think he’d make a fantastic AHL or junior coach, helping shape young players.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 6 @ 12:11 AM ET
If he does, good on him.

In fairness White was given opportunities. Couldn’t stay healthy, didn’t do much when he was.

Add him to our 1st round failures list.

- Trilla


We all know why he had a solid season in 2018-19 playing with Pageau and Stone. The team bottomed out in 2019-20, they had nobody, the start of the rebuild...nobody for him to play with and was thrust at a young age against the top teams top lines. 2021-22, he played injured most of the season, after being scratched to start the year because DJ didn't like him, played Anisimov and Paquette ahead of him...not until PD told DJ to stop it, he might have never played much at all. Then DJ admitted at the end of the season that White had played injured for months! This past season we all know what happened, shoulder and covid twice.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 6 @ 12:12 AM ET
I think DJ WAS good for this team. But not any longer. I doubt he is capable to get us to that next level. And he doesn’t seem to be very good at making in-game decisions. I think he’d make a fantastic AHL or junior coach, helping shape young players.
- PavohnDatsvares



Zero in-game adjustments! I don't know how many times fans from other teams come in here ridiculing how DJ lost the line change match up on home ice lol. He is in over his head....I think if anyone could fired this year it would be him before PD.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 6 @ 12:33 AM ET
I’m reading a lot of fans are anxious to upgrade the team by trading the #7.

The biggest issue I have is the team has holes at every position..and it won’t take an off-season to fix it all.

-Top 6Rw
-true #1C
- at least 2 top 4dmen (I have less faith in the kids than most)
-a GOALIE

So stay the course, keep the pick, draft a quality forward/dman. See if a guy like giroux/trocheck can join.

Next years draft is stacked. I’m already doing my research because I provision another disappointing year for this team.

- Trilla


You raise some great points. I have talked to a lot of scouts and NHL personnel that think the Sens should keep the pick and draft a high end scoring talent. Like you said, the draft is stacked next year!

To address your 4 points. Top 6 forward and top 4 dman. One will need be to acquired via UFA, the other via trade, or possibly an RFA offer sheet.

Many have said, Norris isn't a true 1C, but Stutzle could very well be that guy after next season, so lets see how next season plays out.

When it comes to the goalie tandem.....many say Forsberg should be good for 50 games, any more than that many believe his production will decline....he has never had that kind of work load. Then can Gus shoulder the rest of the load. I truly don't see Murray playing next year, he will either be traded or on LTIR.

Like you said, a lot has to happen next year and many holes to fill. The health of this team will go a long way to their success this upcoming season. These next 2 weeks so vital to see what the direction of this team will be! Good post.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 6 @ 12:35 AM ET
I will have a new blog up later on Wednesday, sorry folks. Between work, family and the summer in general.....my time has been hampered as they say....but I got some good stuff that I will be posting before the draft!

Absolutely off the charts discussion in here. Great stuff!
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Jul 6 @ 2:14 AM ET
Agree 100%. You should always draft the best player available, and focus on potential and ceiling in the first round. I remember being super excited to see Konecny drafted when White was as he played just up the road and seemed a shoe in. Now we are buying out White and talking about trading futures for the guy who was right there. Freddie Gauthier. You don't draft players who are 'safe bet' bottom six players with first round picks.
- Bartacus

Exactly. Travis Konecny should've been the pick !!! I remember thinking that at the time
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 6 @ 5:36 AM ET
Exactly. Travis Konecny should've been the pick !!! I remember thinking that at the time
- AlfieisKing


I was so disappointed when they did not take Konecny.

Everyday folks around the Sens say White is a really nice guy and it is sad to see him go. But, as someone noted earlier, he puts me in mind of Curtis Lazar. All the working parts seem to be first class place but when you turn the motor on it never performs as expected.




spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 6 @ 6:00 AM ET
I will have a new blog up later on Wednesday, sorry folks. Between work, family and the summer in general.....my time has been hampered as they say....but I got some good stuff that I will be posting before the draft!

Absolutely off the charts discussion in here. Great stuff!

- Kevin Francis


Don't apologize. Family first! I actually prefer the style of less blogs but good follow up commentary on your part. The thread evolves with some really good insights into what fans want and like.

So many people visit therapists to try and process their anger and frustrations. Think of each new blog as another extended therapy session for dedicated Sens fans. Everyone needs to know that we are survivors of the Melnyk era. It has not been easy.

So many disappointing decisions. Zibanejad was the worst for me. He was moved because he was an RFA with arbitration rights and Melnyk did not want to be forced into paying him what he was worth.

No doubt in my mind that this team has improved significantly. They will compete coming out of the gates this October. But, before fans sign on and believe, they want to remember and "process" all the disappointments that are the product of the Melnyk era. Some may never be able to let it go.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 6 @ 6:17 AM ET
I believe teams are only allowed to buy out one player per year.

So, why did the Sens buy out White rather than Murray? It was purely an accounting decision. The numbers on a White buy out represent a significant saving (1/3 the value of the contract spread over 6 years or $850k each year). Murray would have been far more pricey (works out to $2.5m per year for 4 years).

Speculation was if the Sens bought out Murray, another team (Leafs) might offer him a discounted contract on a resign. Purely from a Sens perspective, if they can trade Murray and retain 50% of his salary for two years it is actually a far better deal for the Sens than a buy out (by nearly $4m).
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jul 6 @ 8:42 AM ET
Zero in-game adjustments! I don't know how many times fans from other teams come in here ridiculing how DJ lost the line change match up on home ice lol. He is in over his head....I think if anyone could fired this year it would be him before PD.
- Kevin Francis

Seems to me that Smith does not believe that skill has all that much to do with anything. He wasn't a skill guy when he played after all and he carries the same outlook with him as a coach. It's all about how hard you work so it really doesn't matter who you put out there against whoever the other team ices in any situation because all you have to do is outwork them. I have no idea of how else to explain it.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 6 @ 9:09 AM ET
Seems to me that Smith does not believe that skill has all that much to do with anything. He wasn't a skill guy when he played after all and he carries the same outlook with him as a coach. It's all about how hard you work so it really doesn't matter who you put out there against whoever the other team ices in any situation because all you have to do is outwork them. I have no idea of how else to explain it.
- Whatisavailable


I am missing something. When I look down the middle, I see how Norris, Stutzle and Pinto (before his injury) are being brought along and I think the Sens are showing great patience. Same thing when I look at all the kids running around on the power play. Will be interesting to see how the 1st power play unit will function this year. They looked really slick towards the end of last year.

Kids make bonehead plays and Smith takes a sip of water. He stays cool. Some think he does not care because he does not react. I believe he sees them as kids learning to play a man's game. Young players love him. Veteran players not so much. When the season started last year, it made no sense that Connor Brown was denied 1st unit power play time. But, we know it was about the kids.

Now they need to win. Starting opening night.


Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Jul 6 @ 9:34 AM ET
I am missing something. When I look down the middle, I see how Norris, Stutzle and Pinto (before his injury) are being brought along and I think the Sens are showing great patience. Same thing when I look at all the kids running around on the power play. Will be interesting to see how the 1st power play unit will function this year. They looked really slick towards the end of last year.

Kids make bonehead plays and Smith takes a sip of water. He stays cool. Some think he does not care because he does not react. I believe he sees them as kids learning to play a man's game. Young players love him. Veteran players not so much. When the season started last year, it made no sense that Connor Brown was denied 1st unit power play time. But, we know it was about the kids.

Now they need to win. Starting opening night.

- spatso

Stu wasn’t moved to centre until the team had no centres due to injury. It was pure luck that Stu is now playing at centre and looked more comfortable. One has to wonder, if the Sens were healthy if he would still be on the wing.

Not sure all young players love him. White, Formenton, Branstrom. Thomson, etc all seem to struggle for ice time under DJ.

I’ll agree with your powerplay assessment. They were just trying to load up the first unit with the most skilled players. There needs to be some insulation to create a half decent 2nd unit along with some right-hand shots to create some variety in plays. Teams will be eyeing the cross ice past to Norris for the one timer all year.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 6 @ 9:41 AM ET
Stu wasn’t moved to centre until the team had no centres due to injury. It was pure luck that Stu is now playing at centre and looked more comfortable. One has to wonder, if the Sens were healthy if he would still be on the wing.

Not sure all young players love him. White, Formenton, Branstrom. Thomson, etc all seem to struggle for ice time under DJ.

I’ll agree with your powerplay assessment. They were just trying to load up the first unit with the most skilled players. There needs to be some insulation to create a half decent 2nd unit along with some right-hand shots to create some variety in plays. Teams will be eyeing the cross ice past to Norris for the one timer all year.

- Gord_Wilson_2.0


Happy to see Stutzle or Norris go back to the wing if a top flight centre is added.

I think the cross ice to Norris gets shut down and Stutzle attacks the opening created or moves the puck down low to Brady. It is a nice unit and it will get better.
If the Sens have a winning record this year it will be because the power play will supply enough scoring when needed.
HoweHatrick
Joined: 01.02.2014

Jul 6 @ 10:26 AM ET
So, why did the Sens buy out White rather than Murray?
- spatso


Are teams able to buy out players that are on the injured reserve list?
Bartacus
Ottawa Senators
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 01.08.2019

Jul 6 @ 10:45 AM ET
Are teams able to buy out players that are on the injured reserve list?
- HoweHatrick


No, you can't buy out an injured player. They bought out White because of his age. Wait one more year and the buyout cost goes from 1/3 to 2/3 cost. As a team that will likely get nowhere near sniffing the cap, the real question one has to ask is why buy anybody out at all?
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Jul 6 @ 10:46 AM ET
Happy to see Stutzle or Norris go back to the wing if a top flight centre is added.

I think the cross ice to Norris gets shut down and Stutzle attacks the opening created or moves the puck down low to Brady. It is a nice unit and it will get better.
If the Sens have a winning record this year it will be because the power play will supply enough scoring when needed.

- spatso


Stuzle Norris has the potential to be a pretty solid 1 2 punch as far as center depth goes, then you add in Pinto.

Its too early to say Stutzle will be a clear number 1, but it's a very likely possibility.

There are bigger gaps on the wing, where I don't see any bonified players who we can realitiscally say will be able to step in in the near future, maybe Greig, or whoever they draft this year.

At least on D, where its even worse, there are prospects who could step in in the near term and help.
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jul 6 @ 11:22 AM ET
I am missing something. When I look down the middle, I see how Norris, Stutzle and Pinto (before his injury) are being brought along and I think the Sens are showing great patience. Same thing when I look at all the kids running around on the power play. Will be interesting to see how the 1st power play unit will function this year. They looked really slick towards the end of last year.

Kids make bonehead plays and Smith takes a sip of water. He stays cool. Some think he does not care because he does not react. I believe he sees them as kids learning to play a man's game. Young players love him. Veteran players not so much. When the season started last year, it made no sense that Connor Brown was denied 1st unit power play time. But, we know it was about the kids.

Now they need to win. Starting opening night.

- spatso

What universe are you watching hockey in? Smith hates playing the young players and we've all seen that and commented on it for some time now. The only time he plays them is when he has no other choice. If they make a mistake he benches them while allowing the veterans he loves so much to screw the pooch all night long game after game.

That's why everybody wants Dorion to get rid of Zaitsev because if he doesn't Smith will be playing Zaitsev on the top pairing all year. Then with Hamonic and Holden and even Brannstrom guys like Thomson and probably even Sanderson and certainly JBD will all be down in Belleville all year while armchair GMs come up with grand strategies for trading them away for a top 4D.

What a brilliant idea! Draft and develop players and then when they're ready to play for the big team trade them all away for guys other teams want to get rid of.

Smith was forced to play Stutzle at C because everybody was injured. Happily it turns out that that Stutzle flourished at C because his game is more suited to that position so you don't need to go chasing after another C anymore; especially when you've got Pinto and Greig coming along nicely and ready to join the club this year. If Pinto and Greig work out the way I think they will you're going to have to move Norris to the wing eventually which is probably where he belongs anyway. Why on earth would you trade away any of those guys to chase after a trouble maker like Dubois?

Then there are the people who want to trade away the young guys and top picks for Chychrun because he's good and has three more years on a great contract. If he was a right shot I'd love it but he's not. Square pegs and round holes. End of story.

Play Thomson with Chabot who says he likes playing with Thomson. That won't happen because Smith will play Zaitsev with Chabot, or Hamonic, anybody but Thomson.

Play Zub with Sanderson. Smith will even play Zaitsev or Hamonic with Sanderson for a couple of games so he can justify sending Sanderson down to Belleville. Smith will even play Brannstrom ahead of Sanderson.

spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 6 @ 12:08 PM ET
What universe are you watching hockey in? Smith hates playing the young players and we've all seen that and commented on it for some time now. The only time he plays them is when he has no other choice. If they make a mistake he benches them while allowing the veterans he loves so much to screw the pooch all night long game after game.

That's why everybody wants Dorion to get rid of Zaitsev because if he doesn't Smith will be playing Zaitsev on the top pairing all year. Then with Hamonic and Holden and even Brannstrom guys like Thomson and probably even Sanderson and certainly JBD will all be down in Belleville all year while armchair GMs come up with grand strategies for trading them away for a top 4D.

What a brilliant idea! Draft and develop players and then when they're ready to play for the big team trade them all away for guys other teams want to get rid of.

Smith was forced to play Stutzle at C because everybody was injured. Happily it turns out that that Stutzle flourished at C because his game is more suited to that position so you don't need to go chasing after another C anymore; especially when you've got Pinto and Greig coming along nicely and ready to join the club this year. If Pinto and Greig work out the way I think they will you're going to have to move Norris to the wing eventually which is probably where he belongs anyway. Why on earth would you trade away any of those guys to chase after a trouble maker like Dubois?

Then there are the people who want to trade away the young guys and top picks for Chychrun because he's good and has three more years on a great contract. If he was a right shot I'd love it but he's not. Square pegs and round holes. End of story.

Play Thomson with Chabot who says he likes playing with Thomson. That won't happen because Smith will play Zaitsev with Chabot, or Hamonic, anybody but Thomson.

Play Zub with Sanderson. Smith will even play Zaitsev or Hamonic with Sanderson for a couple of games so he can justify sending Sanderson down to Belleville. Smith will even play Brannstrom ahead of Sanderson.

- Whatisavailable


When I look at the power play, the oldest guy on the ice is Chabot.

Beyond that I pretty much agree with most everything you are saying.

I would do a deal for Dubois....he is 23 years old and a very good fit with the compete profile of the young Sens.
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Jul 6 @ 12:11 PM ET
Stu wasn’t moved to centre until the team had no centres due to injury. It was pure luck that Stu is now playing at centre and looked more comfortable. One has to wonder, if the Sens were healthy if he would still be on the wing.

Not sure all young players love him. White, Formenton, Branstrom. Thomson, etc all seem to struggle for ice time under DJ.

I’ll agree with your powerplay assessment. They were just trying to load up the first unit with the most skilled players. There needs to be some insulation to create a half decent 2nd unit along with some right-hand shots to create some variety in plays. Teams will be eyeing the cross ice past to Norris for the one timer all year.

- Gord_Wilson_2.0


I really hope that Stuzle playing centre, coinciding with the injuries, was just a bit of a coincidence.

Like, they must have planned to put him there eventually , it just excellerated the process, right?
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 6 @ 12:19 PM ET
I really hope that Stuzle playing centre, coinciding with the injuries, was just a bit of a coincidence.

Like, they must have planned to put him there eventually , it just excellerated the process, right?

- david22


I think it was really smart to start Stutzle on the wing. Breaking into the NHL is hard enough. Centre is especially difficult.
Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuub
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 10.28.2021

Jul 6 @ 12:52 PM ET
I’m reading a lot of fans are anxious to upgrade the team by trading the #7.

The biggest issue I have is the team has holes at every position..and it won’t take an off-season to fix it all.

-Top 6Rw
-true #1C
- at least 2 top 4dmen (I have less faith in the kids than most)
-a GOALIE


So stay the course, keep the pick, draft a quality forward/dman. See if a guy like giroux/trocheck can join.

Next years draft is stacked. I’m already doing my research because I provision another disappointing year for this team.

- Trilla


Those are ambitious targets, but feasible without even screwing over the team's salary structure too much, especially since we no longer have to pander to the unpredictable whims of a homophobic, regressive egomaniac with similar management style and personality quirks to Donald Trump. RIP and good riddance.

What we need to do is stop listening to rumour mill garbage and talking about what is on top of the scrap heap pile of deadweight other GMs want hyped up in the media to up their potential trade return value (the same way Dorion does with our players using Garrioch et al).

I don't care about Debrincat or Keller. Both are overpriced in terms of trade return value and future salary outlay. I want players that will make the Sens better as a team, not help out other teams with managing their way out of their own salary cap hells or help them to sign the players they actually want to keep.

We are so well set up to make some noise this year with minimal long-term cost impacts. Tierney ($3.5M), Mete (1.2M), and Gaudette ($1.0M) coming off the books mean $5.7M to dedicate to a new impact player alone with NO net salary increase. White's buyout means an added $3.9M in extra cap space ($4.75M-0.875M) available.

So even without any new salary outlays, we have $9.5M to go shopping with (enough for buying a Malkin, if we want, which we likely don't) or even just to offset the new Norris, Formenton, Joseph and/or Brannstrom contracts while still having about $26M in cap space left. Awesome!

My fan voice is saying to double down on our douch-e-baggery and try to leverage Vegas hard and pay em back for the shade thrown after the Dadonov trade and what they still owe us for Mark Stone. Offer a poop package of a 2nd, 4th and Aspirot for Jonathan Marchessault or Shea Theodore. But screw them, they can lie in the pointy nail bed they've made for themselves for the next five years.

Nope, it is time to turn the screws on some teams and start thinking big.

My plan would be as follows for this offseason - not necessarily in the order presented:

-Re-sign our RFAs listed above (Norris x 7yrs, Brannstrom x 3, Joseph x 2, Formenton x 4) to the salaries outlined below

-On draft day, trade a 2022 2nd (OTT), 2022 3rd (BOS) and Viktor Lodin to LA for Viktor Arvidsson. They get what they paid back for him plus a decent prospect and we help em out of their cap hell slightly, plus help annoy Brandon Lemieux in a minor way, which will make Tkachuk happier too.

-Also on draft day, be willing to pay the king's ransom AZ wants for some quality coming back. AZ trades Lawson Crouse (RFA) and Jacob Chychrun to OTT for their 2023 1st (it won't matter as we won't be in the Bedard sweepstakes), Tyler Boucher, Jacob Bernard-Docker, Filip Gustavsson, Connor Brown and Nikita Zaitsev.

-Later in the off-season, trade Matt Murray and Egor Sokolov to ANA for John Gibson and a 2023 2nd. We get the quality goalie we need in their prime years and they get the future cap relief for draft capital.

-Go big in UFA, sign Claude Giroux (x3 years).

-Draft J Kemmell or C Gauthier in the 1st round this year, use the rest of our picks to round out the d corp prospect depth.

Come into next season looking like this:

Tkachuk (8.2)-Norris (7.3)-Batherson (5.0) - Steady and familiar chemistry
Giroux (6.8)-Stutzle (0.9)-Arvidsson (4.3) - What a line that will be!
Joseph (2.3)-Pinto (0.9)-Formenton (2.9) - What a line THAT will be!
Crouse (2.9)-Gambrell/Ostapchuk/Kastellic (0.9)-Watson(1.5)
ex: Kelly, Greig, depth UFA signings (e.g. Ennis)

Chabot (8.0)-Chychrun (4.6) - wow!
Sanderson (0.9)-Zub (2.5) - WOW!
Brannstrom (1.9)-Hamonic (3.0) - Better than most 3rd pairings in the league
ex: Holden, Thompson

Forsberg (2.8)
Gibson (6.4)

Total Cap Hit: $77.2M including salaries of extra players

Tons of room for new Pinto, Sanderson and Stutzle contracts, plus w/e depth adds are needed to keep really, really competitive over the compete window.

That's not just a playoff team, thats a scary freaking roster against any NHL team with the exception of COL and TBL right now, and they will grow into that echelon in 2-3 years.

Do it, PD! Do, it now!!!
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