I'm not saying you don't lock-up your top players like Colorado did with Makar, Rantanen, etc., but the Avalanche won because they combined that strong nucleus of high-end talent with quality cost-controlled secondary talent like Toews, Kadri, Lehkonen, Manson, Burakovsky, Girard, Kuemper, Nichushkin, Byram, Newhook, etc. Evidence of how difficult that is to manage is the fact that the Avalanche could lose as many as 4-5 of those players to UFA, which will only put more pressure on the remaining younger talent to elevate their play in response. That's why you don't just throw away players like Formenton, just when they're starting to establish themselves as solid NHL players, and are at their most beneficial from a value/$$$ perspective.
- khawk

I agree 100% with your explanation.

Never mind the hockey model. It is the business model that needs to be established.

Sens top six salaries now account for 39% of allowable cap. Tampa's top 6 totaled 65% of the allowable $82.5m (Leafs are the same). Colorado won the Stanley Cup with a top 6 accounting for 50% of the cap.

Ottawa will exceed the 50% threshold within two years taking into account the signings of Norris, Stutzle and Sanderson and allowing for the deletion of Murray and Zaitsev from the top 6.

I hate having to poop on the idea of signing Giroux but it would be financial negligence given what we see taking place over the next couple of years. I know some folks are struggling with the decision to move Nick Paul and, perhaps, Connor Brown. Love both players.

But, the numbers tell us Sens only have a 6 year window (or less) to win a Cup. They need to go big and bold. Whatever decisions they make over the next week or so it should be a player that is part of the inside group. If the Sens are serious contenders they can add veteran presence at the trade deadline.

I'm not saying you don't lock-up your top players like Colorado did with Makar, Rantanen, etc., but the Avalanche won because they combined that strong nucleus of high-end talent with quality cost-controlled secondary talent like Toews, Kadri, Lehkonen, Manson, Burakovsky, Girard, Kuemper, Nichushkin, Byram, Newhook, etc. Evidence of how difficult that is to manage is the fact that the Avalanche could lose as many as 4-5 of those players to UFA, which will only put more pressure on the remaining younger talent to elevate their play in response. That's why you don't just throw away players like Formenton, just when they're starting to establish themselves as solid NHL players, and are at their most beneficial from a value/$$$ perspective.
- khawk

Yes! I agree with everything you are saying. Assets depreciate, they lose value. Older assets depreciate far more quickly than younger assets.

Sens top six salaries now account for 39% of allowable cap. Tampa's top 6 totaled 65% of the allowable $82.5m (Leafs are the same). Colorado won the Stanley Cup with a top 6 accounting for 50% of the cap.

Ottawa will exceed the 50% threshold within two years taking into account the signings of Norris, Stutzle and Sanderson and allowing for the deletion of Murray and Zaitsev from the top 6.

I hate having to poop on the idea of signing Giroux but it would be financial negligence given what we see taking place over the next couple of years. I know some folks are struggling with the decision to move Nick Paul and, perhaps, Connor Brown. Love both players.
- spatso

It's a useful frame of reference to use the % cap to frame how much cap space is left on the table after the top-6 players are accounted for, however, I disagree on the Giroux comment. The deal Batherson signed at $4.9M is probably the biggest gift on the entire roster, and the kind of money you see high-quality secondary players on the Avalanche like Girard, Kadri, or Toews making. So you can pencil Batherson & Zub into that high-quality secondary talent category, and still bring in another $7M-$8M player for up to 5yrs on the roster to go along with Tkachuk, Chabot, Stutzle, Norris, and Sanderson in the top-6 without seriously disrupting the % AAV accounted for by the top-6 (~53% to 55%). And the marginal gain of having another player of that quality on the roster just can't be ignored, especially for a team with so many prominent players under 25.

It's a useful frame of reference to use the % cap to frame how much cap space is left on the table after the top-6 players are accounted for, however, I disagree on the Giroux comment. The deal Batherson signed at $4.9M is probably the biggest gift on the entire roster, and the kind of money you see high-quality secondary players on the Avalanche like Girard, Kadri, or Toews making. So you can pencil Batherson & Zub into that high-quality secondary talent category, and still bring in another $7M-$8M player for up to 5yrs on the roster to go along with Tkachuk, Chabot, Stutzle, Norris, and Sanderson in the top-6 without seriously disrupting the % AAV accounted for by the top-6 (~53% to 55%). And the marginal gain of having another player of that quality on the roster just can't be ignored, especially for a team with so many prominent players under 25.
- khawk

I think some folks believe that it is enough to make a run at getting into playoffs.

The Sens are raw. They can be so much more, very soon. I believe.

Right now the bench mark has to be the Leafs. Can the Sens take out the Leafs in a playoff round. What do they need to go head to head against the Leafs top two lines. After that the Sens have a clear advantage.



TSN 1200
@TSN1200
· 10h
.@TSNHockey Analyst Dave Poulin: I'm not sure Claude Giroux is the player that moves the needle for Ottawa

I think some folks believe that it is enough to make a run at getting into playoffs.

The Sens are raw. They can be so much more, very soon. I believe.

Right now the bench mark has to be the Leafs. Can the Sens take out the Leafs in a playoff round. What do they need to go head to head against the Leafs top two lines. After that the Sens have a clear advantage.

TSN 1200
@TSN1200
· 10h
.@TSNHockey Analyst Dave Poulin: I'm not sure Claude Giroux is the player that moves the needle for Ottawa
- spatso

Tavares & Matthews are 2 of the best faceoff men in the NHL... Giroux is 1 of the few in the same class, and plays with more determination that the two of them combined. Pretty sure that would move the needle on Ottawa's chances in a head-to-head playoff match-up. That said, Ottawa won't be a playoff team until guys like Sanderson, Thomson, and Pinto are firmly established as NHL regulars, and the likes of Greig & Bernard-Docker are actively playing in supporting roles. As such, I don't think any NHL player moves the needle for Ottawa in terms of playoff fortunes until all of Zaitsev, Murray, Hamonic, and Del Zotto are 100% gone, which is likely ~1 year away... assuming Dorion doesn't do some kind of thoughtless bargain-bin cap damage in the interim.

Giroux would be great for three years or less. He'll be top six for two more years at least. He's amazing at faceoffs. Perfect mentor for Stutzle, hone his skill at the dot (which is among the worst in the league). He's an Ottawa boy. Sells tickets. He fits a need. Most importantly, he's said it before - he wants to play here. Doesn't mean he won't sign elsewhere, but very few players openly muse about signing in Ottawa. That counts. Keep pretty much everyone else and let the UFAs walk. Sign Formenton/Joseph to 2/3 year deals on the cheap. Offload Zaitsev, keep Murray, buy out White so he can sign and thrive in Boston. Go hard after Mack Weegar, if only to make noise and demonstrate the team's interest for when he goes UFA next year. Make serious calls to unite the Tkachuk brothers, and offer Matthew exactly his brother's deal to a tee, parity, Sedin style, and an A alongside Chabot. Let Brown play out the year, if we suck at the deadline, flip him. Give Gus a shot as backup and stay out of the goalie market. Outside Weegar or Tkachuk, draft at 7. This team is going to be surprisingly competitive if we fix the glaring holes on the back end (which starts with a Z leaving the B), draft a forward (unless either Euro RD remains - then POUNCE) and add Giroux and one solid but unspectacular RD defensive UFA like a Lyubushkin. After that, it's on the coach. Hot seat.

Dont forget PD did the same thing when the Brady negs weren't going well!!
- Kevin Francis

He's such a little snake.

there needs to be a betting pool on how badly dorion is going to (frank) up the 7th OA pick this year like he did for 10th last year

He's such a little snake.
- PavohnDatsvares

I reported it at the time, if it was McGuire knowing the agent well and getting Brady plus the agent together down in Belleville, who knows how long he would've held out, PD wasn't willing to budge, it was all PM!

there needs to be a betting pool on how badly dorion is going to (frank) up the 7th OA pick this year like he did for 10th last year
- Mithos

True!!!

Hey Everyone!
I'm sending this message out to anyone who has been on Twitter IM or on HB IM over the last year. I am just putting out a feeler to see what the interest would be in a get-together with the loyal readers at HB. Only people invited will be on the list to attend. I don't want some crazy out of control event, just the folks who always engage with me. I was thinking this Wednesday night, the night before the draft as I am doing some coverage for Satellite radio on Thursday and Friday.
I will confirm the location for it its a go! 7pm would be the time on Wednesday night. It would be a fun get together to chat about Sens stuff, meet the crew, etc....
If you are interested and could attend for a few hours, please confirm with me on Hockeybuzz IM or Twitter IM. If there's enough interest, I will then confirm the event!
Thanks!
Kevin

I agree 100% with your explanation.

Never mind the hockey model. It is the business model that needs to be established.

Sens top six salaries now account for 39% of allowable cap. Tampa's top 6 totaled 65% of the allowable $82.5m (Leafs are the same). Colorado won the Stanley Cup with a top 6 accounting for 50% of the cap.

Ottawa will exceed the 50% threshold within two years taking into account the signings of Norris, Stutzle and Sanderson and allowing for the deletion of Murray and Zaitsev from the top 6.

I hate having to poop on the idea of signing Giroux but it would be financial negligence given what we see taking place over the next couple of years. I know some folks are struggling with the decision to move Nick Paul and, perhaps, Connor Brown. Love both players.

But, the numbers tell us Sens only have a 6 year window (or less) to win a Cup. They need to go big and bold. Whatever decisions they make over the next week or so it should be a player that is part of the inside group. If the Sens are serious contenders they can add veteran presence at the trade deadline.
- spatso

Great post!

It's a useful frame of reference to use the % cap to frame how much cap space is left on the table after the top-6 players are accounted for, however, I disagree on the Giroux comment. The deal Batherson signed at $4.9M is probably the biggest gift on the entire roster, and the kind of money you see high-quality secondary players on the Avalanche like Girard, Kadri, or Toews making. So you can pencil Batherson & Zub into that high-quality secondary talent category, and still bring in another $7M-$8M player for up to 5yrs on the roster to go along with Tkachuk, Chabot, Stutzle, Norris, and Sanderson in the top-6 without seriously disrupting the % AAV accounted for by the top-6 (~53% to 55%). And the marginal gain of having another player of that quality on the roster just can't be ignored, especially for a team with so many prominent players under 25.
- khawk

Great post and discussion with a few of you on here!!

Giroux would be great for three years or less. He'll be top six for two more years at least. He's amazing at faceoffs. Perfect mentor for Stutzle, hone his skill at the dot (which is among the worst in the league). He's an Ottawa boy. Sells tickets. He fits a need. Most importantly, he's said it before - he wants to play here. Doesn't mean he won't sign elsewhere, but very few players openly muse about signing in Ottawa. That counts. Keep pretty much everyone else and let the UFAs walk. Sign Formenton/Joseph to 2/3 year deals on the cheap. Offload Zaitsev, keep Murray, buy out White so he can sign and thrive in Boston. Go hard after Mack Weegar, if only to make noise and demonstrate the team's interest for when he goes UFA next year. Make serious calls to unite the Tkachuk brothers, and offer Matthew exactly his brother's deal to a tee, parity, Sedin style, and an A alongside Chabot. Let Brown play out the year, if we suck at the deadline, flip him. Give Gus a shot as backup and stay out of the goalie market. Outside Weegar or Tkachuk, draft at 7. This team is going to be surprisingly competitive if we fix the glaring holes on the back end (which starts with a Z leaving the B), draft a forward (unless either Euro RD remains - then POUNCE) and add Giroux and one solid but unspectacular RD defensive UFA like a Lyubushkin. After that, it's on the coach. Hot seat.
- Bartacus

I tell you there are a bunch of readers/posters on here that could run the team better than PD! Great post!

See Pavelski

Elite hockey IQ players can still be very effective. No worries on signing Stutzle and Sanderson. Enough off the books by then.
- Cup 06

Absolutely!!

Reading some of the tweets the last couple days about just how many terrible moves Dorion has made. It is actually incredible how bad he has been.

I saw one that said only Mike Milbury was a GM for 6 straight years while missing the playoffs. Dorion is at 5 and counting.

When your capability as a GM is being compared to Milbury you know you are beyond bad.

I honestly don't see anything changing until new ownership comes in. Until then, one of the most inept GMs in NHL history has the keys to the candy store. This could get ugly (uglier!).
- punchanello77

I couldn't agree more my friend!! Well said!

Not exactly sure what is scary about a 23 year old who's average ~60pts/ 82 games in his NHL career who's signed long term (compared to Fiala, ~55pts/82 games, who just signed for close to 8M)

Play him with Stutzle for the foreseeable future and have to think he's a min 60pt guy going forward and high probability he'll be a 70+ point guy.

Should definitely be considered especially if they can take one of Zaitzev/White in the deal. Keller would fit nicely is this groups core.

Ideal world though I would like then to just sign Giroux without giving up any assets and use the 7OA to get a top 4D. Or try and get Garland out of Vancouver at a lower cost.
- andyman998

From all the NHL personnel and scouts that I talk to a lot they all feel Keller would be a great fit here in Ottawa. Well said, solid post!

Dorion wouldn't leave it at that because giving away a number 7 pick to unload the stupid contract you handed out would not be a good look. No he would add good assets to the deal and take back an even worse contract than the one he gave Murray and two years from now give away more assets to get rid of that deal or lose good players because there's no money to sign them. How to destroy a franchise 101.
- Whatisavailable

You and many others on here, have PD figured out on so many levels so can you imagine what all the other NHL GM's think?!

I know I have missed a few comments, tried to reply to as many as possible. Apologies to those that I missed. Great discussion in the blog as always. Truly insightful comments, not just nonsense like at many other sites. This is pure hockey talk! I will have a new piece up tomorrow at some point, depends on my day, but I will have something up!

Garrioch tweeted tonight that Armstrong the GM in AZ is looking to add a top 10 pick at the draft. Bruce is a little late to the party lol....but you know PD gave him that info! And the story heats up a little more.....

Good blog Kevin, one of your best in the last couple months. This is the Kevin I prefer 👍
- Crosside

Thanks for the kind words!

Sens are prepping for Giroux. They are willing to go up to 4 years. They think the signing will really excite the fanbase. Other targets are Ryan Strome,Rakell, and Marchment.

Like Garrioch mentioned this week. They are hoping to close the chapter on Zaitsev before the draft. They don't have the leverage there.

The Sens do NOT know if Formentum or Batherson are deeply involved in the HC case. Any speculation otherwise would be wholly irresponsible.

Formentum is being used as a trade piece. He has good value to retuen a more "finished"player. DJ has frustrations with him but understands he's young with really great potential. He doesn't dislike him.

Debrincat option is not closed but Chicago has to play ball. Their expectations are pretty unrealistic. Teams will have an issue with the 9m qualifying offer, not just Ottawa.


Sens are attaching Murray to the 7th pick if teams really want to get it.
- Cup 06

Although I agree the Sens will go hard after Giroux, 4 years would be a mistake but that is the problem, Ottawa always seems to have to tag on an extra year to get the player they want. Gonchar and Kovalev come to mind. Good post!

Sorry if I wasn’t clear enough. It would be similar to when the Sabres traded for Lehner from the Sens and had to take Legwand. Murray would be a caveat and not a hinderance on the return.
- Cup 06

Bingo! Well said!

Hey Everyone!
I'm sending this message out to anyone who has been on Twitter IM or on HB IM over the last year. I am just putting out a feeler to see what the interest would be in a get-together with the loyal readers at HB. Only people invited will be on the list to attend. I don't want some crazy out of control event, just the folks who always engage with me. I was thinking this Wednesday night, the night before the draft as I am doing some coverage for Satellite radio on Thursday and Friday.
I will confirm the location for it its a go! 7pm would be the time on Wednesday night. It would be a fun get together to chat about Sens stuff, meet the crew, etc....
If you are interested and could attend for a few hours, please confirm with me on Hockeybuzz IM or Twitter IM. If there's enough interest, I will then confirm the event!
Thanks!
Kevin

Garrioch tweeted tonight that Armstrong the GM in AZ is looking to add a top 10 pick at the draft. Bruce is a little late to the party lol....but you know PD gave him that info! And the story heats up a little more.....
- Kevin Francis

Garrioch listed multiple players that might be available from different teams including Chychrun, Debrincat and Dubois.

He did not mention Clayton Kellor....leads me to think that Kellor might be the piece that Arizona is pushing.