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Forums :: Blog World :: Kevin Francis: Will the Sens extend an RFA offer sheet? Potential trade targets and more!
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spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 3 @ 5:43 PM ET
I think Giroux would be the perfect mentor for Stutzle.. I don’t get why ya think his game is on a downward spiral fast lol .. He scored 65pts in 75games that sir is a top 6 player lol
Plus what is Stutzle weakest part of his game it’s his face off.. Giroux is like 60% on the dot he can teach Jimmy Stu and Norris a few tricks 🤷‍♂️
Yes he’s 34 but we’re not giving him 7yrs
Maybe he’ll take a hometown discount to be with family and friends more
Say 4x6million or 3x6 🤷‍♂️
Found this too
He leads the NHL in faceoffs taken (1,051) and won (566) while also having a 53.6 faceoff percentage. Giroux leads all NHL players in faceoff wins on the road (279), at home (287) and on the power play (113). He also ranks fourth in short-handed faceoff wins (69).

- sens4life1971


Anybody age 34 in the NHL is experiencing serious performance regression. There are a some remarkable exceptions but they are very few. If we were talking two years I would be less anxious. But 4 years with the cap creating an even bigger choke hold on all teams. I would need some assurance that the Sens will have the cap space to be able to sign both Stutzle and Sanderson.
sens4life1971
Ottawa Senators
Location: smiths falls, ON
Joined: 02.16.2014

Jul 3 @ 6:09 PM ET
Anybody age 34 in the NHL is experiencing serious performance regression. There are a some remarkable exceptions but they are very few. If we were talking two years I would be less anxious. But 4 years with the cap creating an even bigger choke hold on all teams. I would need some assurance that the Sens will have the cap space to be able to sign both Stutzle and Sanderson.
- spatso

Ok can we let Sanderson play some NHL games before we talk about him lol
But getting rid of Zeitsev and white would help 😉
Or even Murray 👌
Cup 06
Ottawa Senators
Location: Tkachuk Town, ON
Joined: 03.01.2006

Jul 3 @ 6:35 PM ET
Anybody age 34 in the NHL is experiencing serious performance regression. There are a some remarkable exceptions but they are very few. If we were talking two years I would be less anxious. But 4 years with the cap creating an even bigger choke hold on all teams. I would need some assurance that the Sens will have the cap space to be able to sign both Stutzle and Sanderson.
- spatso



See Pavelski

Elite hockey IQ players can still be very effective. No worries on signing Stutzle and Sanderson. Enough off the books by then.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 3 @ 6:51 PM ET
See Pavelski

Elite hockey IQ players can still be very effective. No worries on signing Stutzle and Sanderson. Enough off the books by then.

- Cup 06


Stutzle is next summer, Sanderson the following summer.

Pavelski is the gold standard of exceptions along with Patrick Marlowe. All the exceptions have the same thing in common. They were/are superb technical skaters. Poor technical skaters (eg Mark Stone, Bobby Ryan, Dany Heatley) hit a wall around age 30 and their game begins to collapse.
Cup 06
Ottawa Senators
Location: Tkachuk Town, ON
Joined: 03.01.2006

Jul 3 @ 8:34 PM ET
Stutzle is next summer, Sanderson the following summer.

Pavelski is the gold standard of exceptions along with Patrick Marlowe. All the exceptions have the same thing in common. They were/are superb technical skaters. Poor technical skaters (eg Mark Stone, Bobby Ryan, Dany Heatley) hit a wall around age 30 and their game begins to collapse.

- spatso



Agree, Giroux is more than fine. He payed well in Florida
PavohnDatsvares
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.03.2016

Jul 4 @ 9:23 AM ET
"... it was Dorion that released the numbers on the contract offer to one specific outlet in hopes of getting the fanbase on management's side."

Also Pierre Dorion: We don't negotiate through the media.

spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 4 @ 10:35 AM ET
Mikheyev looking for something in the range of $4.75m.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 4 @ 10:40 AM ET
Just the sheer number of buyout candidates is more damning evidence as to what a poor GM Dorion is. How many other team have 3 or 4 players that are worthy of buyouts.

Lots to look forward to as far as the future of this team goes. But number one is new ownership that then brings in a real GM. That will be the springboard towards true success.

- punchanello77


Beyond agree with you. I just hope that this current GM doesn't make desperation moves to save his job this season before the team is put up for sale. Peter Chiarelli made moves that hurt the Oilers for years because he was in the same position, trying to save his job!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 4 @ 10:41 AM ET
Mikheyev looking for something in the range of $4.75m.
- spatso


I would wait on him, see how the market plays out. I would rather they give Connor Brown 5M AAV then give Mikheyev that type of money!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 4 @ 10:42 AM ET
"... it was Dorion that released the numbers on the contract offer to one specific outlet in hopes of getting the fanbase on management's side."

Also Pierre Dorion: We don't negotiate through the media.


- PavohnDatsvares


Dont forget PD did the same thing when the Brady negs weren't going well!!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 4 @ 10:43 AM ET
Agree, Giroux is more than fine. He payed well in Florida
- Cup 06


Exactly, he can still skate which is big at his age, plus the fact that he can play RW or C is huge. But who do you take off the number PP unit is the question, if you sign him? Someone mentioned that in here before I think.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 4 @ 10:43 AM ET
Stutzle is next summer, Sanderson the following summer.

Pavelski is the gold standard of exceptions along with Patrick Marlowe. All the exceptions have the same thing in common. They were/are superb technical skaters. Poor technical skaters (eg Mark Stone, Bobby Ryan, Dany Heatley) hit a wall around age 30 and their game begins to collapse.

- spatso


Very good post, so true!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 4 @ 10:43 AM ET
Ok can we let Sanderson play some NHL games before we talk about him lol
But getting rid of Zeitsev and white would help 😉
Or even Murray 👌

- sens4life1971

Yes exactly, far too much pressure on a player who has yet to play an NHL game!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 4 @ 10:46 AM ET
ah yes, trade the fastest guy on your team that was tied for most SHG in 2022, in his first full NHL season, because the worst coach in NHL may not like him, that is excellent Gming there.

The sens sure have a bring future with dorion and dj in there, cup favorites next year for certain...

Bufallo called, they want their title of worst managed team in the NHL

- Mithos


They talked about it on TSN1200 this morning on the morning show how PD let Boucher and DJ dictate who was brought in. Like who is the damn GM here?! PD has been and always will be the Sens downfall until he's removed from his position, but we all know we are stuck with him this season, then we can only hope the team is put up for sale.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 4 @ 10:47 AM ET
To Ottawa:

- Keller
- Chychrun

To Phoenix:

- 2022 1st (7th overall)
- 2023 1st (top 5 protected)
- Tyler Boucher
- Connor Brown (Phoenix can flip him at the deadline. Perfect deadline acquisition for a contender.)
- Zaitsev
- One of JBD or Thomson


Thoughts?

Tkachuk - Norris - Batherson
Joseph - Stutzle - Keller
Formenton - Pinto - White
Gambrel - Kelly - Watson

Chabot - Zub
Chychrun - Sanderson
Brannstrom - Hamonic
Holden

- andyman998


I wouldn't do all you included in the trade package, but I love how the lineup would look with both of them playing for the Sens. You would have a team contending for the playoffs for sure.
SensFan25
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 08.24.2006

Jul 4 @ 11:24 AM ET
I would wait on him, see how the market plays out. I would rather they give Connor Brown 5M AAV then give Mikheyev that type of money!
- Kevin Francis

Agreed. The team does not place nearly enough value on its own players which have performed very well and proven to be a great fit. Instead, they try to play hard ball and extract a large hometown discount. They then have to chase players via trade / free agency and overpay in assets and contract. Duclair vs. Dadonov is the perfect example of this. Nick Paul was also undervalued. Zub should have been signed to a 5/6 year contract on the last negotiations, same with Connor Brown - but both were signed to the cheapest deal the team could extract, pushing the problem into this year.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 4 @ 11:27 AM ET
Agreed. The team does not place nearly enough value on its own players which have performed very well and proven to be a great fit. Instead, they try to play hard ball and extract a large hometown discount. They then have to chase players via trade / free agency and overpay in assets and contract. Duclair vs. Dadonov is the perfect example of this. Nick Paul was also undervalued. Zub should have been signed to a 5/6 year contract on the last negotiations, same with Connor Brown - but both were signed to the cheapest deal the team could extract, pushing the problem into this year.
- SensFan25


100% agreed! I hope Zub is able to get back to North America for the start of the season. The reason I mention this is because of the story over in Russia regarding a Flyers prospect.

https://www.nytimes.com/2...ssia-fedotov-ukraine.html
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 4 @ 11:34 AM ET
Simmer tweeted this out a half hour ago!

Sens payroll Defence.

Chabot 4.0
Zub 3.25
Sanderson .925
Holden 1.3
Zaitsev 4.5
Hamonic 3.25
Del Zotto 2.25

Total 19.475

Brannstom RFA
Top 4?
JBD/Thomson AHL
punchanello77
Joined: 07.17.2015

Jul 4 @ 12:57 PM ET
Reading some of the tweets the last couple days about just how many terrible moves Dorion has made. It is actually incredible how bad he has been.

I saw one that said only Mike Milbury was a GM for 6 straight years while missing the playoffs. Dorion is at 5 and counting.

When your capability as a GM is being compared to Milbury you know you are beyond bad.

I honestly don't see anything changing until new ownership comes in. Until then, one of the most inept GMs in NHL history has the keys to the candy store. This could get ugly (uglier!).
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 4 @ 1:30 PM ET
Reading some of the tweets the last couple days about just how many terrible moves Dorion has made. It is actually incredible how bad he has been.

I saw one that said only Mike Milbury was a GM for 6 straight years while missing the playoffs. Dorion is at 5 and counting.

When your capability as a GM is being compared to Milbury you know you are beyond bad.

I honestly don't see anything changing until new ownership comes in. Until then, one of the most inept GMs in NHL history has the keys to the candy store. This could get ugly (uglier!).

- punchanello77


Since the Sens decided to rebuild around youth (starting with players from the 2017 draft) the Sens have added as picks and/or prospects Braanstrom, Norris, Formenton, Batherson, Tkachuk, JBD, Thompson, Pinto, Sogaard, Kestilic, Parker, Stutzle, Sanderson, Grieg, Jarvente, Kleven and Sokolov. This is going to be a very good team.

If the Sens start winning more than they lose starting this fall, I hope we don't have a lot of guys who are so invested in failure that they find themselves cheering against the Sens.



Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jul 4 @ 1:46 PM ET
I wouldn't do all you included in the trade package, but I love how the lineup would look with both of them playing for the Sens. You would have a team contending for the playoffs for sure.
- Kevin Francis

This got my vote for the scariest idea in the "Nightmare Trades" category. If Arizona wanted to give their 7+ million dollar midget who just came off a career year to Ottawa for free I wouldn't touch him not to mention that Chychrun, who I like, is a left shot and so is Sanderson. I don't think even trading just for Chychrun is a good idea but I could live with it if the cost in assets wasn't ridiculous.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jul 4 @ 2:08 PM ET
Seems like there are some major dominos involved with their forward "plans". For instance, it's hard to see them going out and making a long-term commitment to more than 1 forward in the >$5M range who isn't in the existing Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson-Stutzle core, and that's exactly what all of Keller, Giroux, and Brown are going to have in common. Personally, I'd take one of Giroux/Keller before Brown, but this is obviously a very polarizing issue. The fact that a Keller trade would eliminate Zaitsev from the equation is what makes it the most probable scenario... especially if they also get ARI to retain ~$1M, like the Canucks did with OEL.

Regardless, what I really dislike is the persistent encroachment on the development of their best young secondary players. The idea of trading Formenton is just flat-out absurd, right as he's hitting his RFA years, and they can't wait to move on from White for no particular reason. They've already broken Brannstrom, and appear to be working on Thomson & Bernard-Docker next. Pinto seems to have their unyielding adoration for the time being... but that may change when he actually tries to play more than 20GP in a row. God knows what kind of regression you might get from leaving the NCAA early, only to have no AHL seasoning and essentially miss an entire NHL season.

Memo to Dorion: if you're going to go around signing all of your top young players to long-term/high-$$$ RFA extensions, then you're intentionally giving up the years where those players are high-value/low-$$$, and your competitive window is going to be defined by how long you can effectively manage your other young players on RFA-bridge contracts. Hint: that means MAXIMIZING the value out you're getting out of your best secondary players like Formenton, Pinto, Greig, Brannstrom, Thomson, Bernard-Docker, etc., not mind-f-ing them like Vecna.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 4 @ 3:03 PM ET
Seems like there are some major dominos involved with their forward "plans". For instance, it's hard to see them going out and making a long-term commitment to more than 1 forward in the >$5M range who isn't in the existing Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson-Stutzle core, and that's exactly what all of Keller, Giroux, and Brown are going to have in common. Personally, I'd take one of Giroux/Keller before Brown, but this is obviously a very polarizing issue. The fact that a Keller trade would eliminate Zaitsev from the equation is what makes it the most probable scenario... especially if they also get ARI to retain ~$1M, like the Canucks did with OEL.

Regardless, what I really dislike is the persistent encroachment on the development of their best young secondary players. The idea of trading Formenton is just flat-out absurd, right as he's hitting his RFA years, and they can't wait to move on from White for no particular reason. They've already broken Brannstrom, and appear to be working on Thomson & Bernard-Docker next. Pinto seems to have their unyielding adoration for the time being... but that may change when he actually tries to play more than 20GP in a row. God knows what kind of regression you might get from leaving the NCAA early, only to have no AHL seasoning and essentially miss an entire NHL season.

Memo to Dorion: if you're going to go around signing all of your top young players to long-term/high-$$$ RFA extensions, then you're intentionally giving up the years where those players are high-value/low-$$$, and your competitive window is going to be defined by how long you can effectively manage your other young players on RFA-bridge contracts. Hint: that means MAXIMIZING the value out you're getting out of your best secondary players like Formenton, Pinto, Greig, Brannstrom, Thomson, Bernard-Docker, etc., not mind-f-ing them like Vecna.

- khawk


The model has changed. Up until a few years ago, it was about progression up the scale and players incrementally moved up and in their final RFA year they got a larger contract. UFA's were able to cash in on monster deal. Now top end players are signing long term deals at the end of their entry level contract. Guys who are waiting to cash in as UFA's will discover most of the money is already gone. The players, agents and GMs understand how the game has changed. Fans are just beginning to understand that Makar getting $9.5m is more the rule than the exception today.
andyman998
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.08.2005

Jul 4 @ 4:00 PM ET
This got my vote for the scariest idea in the "Nightmare Trades" category. If Arizona wanted to give their 7+ million dollar midget who just came off a career year to Ottawa for free I wouldn't touch him not to mention that Chychrun, who I like, is a left shot and so is Sanderson. I don't think even trading just for Chychrun is a good idea but I could live with it if the cost in assets wasn't ridiculous.
- Whatisavailable


Not exactly sure what is scary about a 23 year old who's average ~60pts/ 82 games in his NHL career who's signed long term (compared to Fiala, ~55pts/82 games, who just signed for close to 8M)

Play him with Stutzle for the foreseeable future and have to think he's a min 60pt guy going forward and high probability he'll be a 70+ point guy.

Should definitely be considered especially if they can take one of Zaitzev/White in the deal. Keller would fit nicely is this groups core.

Ideal world though I would like then to just sign Giroux without giving up any assets and use the 7OA to get a top 4D. Or try and get Garland out of Vancouver at a lower cost.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jul 4 @ 4:24 PM ET
The model has changed. Up until a few years ago, it was about progression up the scale and players incrementally moved up and in their final RFA year they got a larger contract. UFA's were able to cash in on monster deal. Now top end players are signing long term deals at the end of their entry level contract. Guys who are waiting to cash in as UFA's will discover most of the money is already gone. The players, agents and GMs understand how the game has changed. Fans are just beginning to understand that Makar getting $9.5m is more the rule than the exception today.
- spatso

I'm not saying you don't lock-up your top players like Colorado did with Makar, Rantanen, etc., but the Avalanche won because they combined that strong nucleus of high-end talent with quality cost-controlled secondary talent like Toews, Kadri, Lehkonen, Manson, Burakovsky, Girard, Kuemper, Nichushkin, Byram, Newhook, etc. Evidence of how difficult that is to manage is the fact that the Avalanche could lose as many as 4-5 of those players to UFA, which will only put more pressure on the remaining younger talent to elevate their play in response. That's why you don't just throw away players like Formenton, just when they're starting to establish themselves as solid NHL players, and are at their most beneficial from a value/$$$ perspective.
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