Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 
Forums :: Blog World :: Kevin Francis: Will the Sens extend an RFA offer sheet? Potential trade targets and more!
Author Message
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 6 @ 5:32 PM ET
Josh Anderson is horrible and on a terrible contract. Get rid of White, only to add an older, more expensive unproductive third line plug? He's never gotten 50 points in a season despite getting oodles of top six time. He is injured more often than not. People talk about how awesome he is all the time - he's Tyler Boucher except not on an ELC and eight years older. If we trade the 7 and he's the big piece coming back it'll be a worse debacle than last year.
- Bartacus


Great tweet by Graeme Nichols earlier.

You know who has as many 40 point seasons and a better contract than what's left on Josh Anderson's deal? The player the Senators just bought out
Bartacus
Ottawa Senators
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 01.08.2019

Jul 6 @ 5:34 PM ET
Great tweet by Graeme Nichols earlier.

You know who has as many 40 point seasons and a better contract than what's left on Josh Anderson's deal? The player the Senators just bought out

- Kevin Francis


Lol. Exactly. I have no idea what they are thinking. I wouldn't trade them the rights to sign Tierney for Anderson.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jul 6 @ 5:40 PM ET
I don’t know. I could be wrong, but I don’t think I recall really seeing a centre prospect stapled to the wing for a season and a half to start their NHL career. I have recalled some time share situations at the centre position for key faceoffs and such but there is adequate time at the natural position to develop.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

You're not wrong... it's incredibly rare to not play a top-6 quality C at their natural position when they enter the NHL, let alone when it's one of the centrepiece forwards of an entire team rebuild. If they were legitimately worried about how Stutzle would handle the transition to the North American game, he should have been playing C in the AHL... not W in the NHL. The decision to play him at C was 100% forced upon them, which also explains why he struggles with so many of the fundamentals of the position, like faceoffs and defensive coverage.

It's true, though, that there are several high-end C who rely heavily on their wingers for things like faceoff support, with MacKinnon and Pettersson being among the most obvious. This is where having a forward like Giroux or Trocheck would be very useful additions, as they're both very strong faceoff veterans, who also provide quality offensive support. Paul was inadvertently playing this role when they had him as the #2C, but he has nowhere near the skill set required to play that effectively on a playoff-quality team.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jul 6 @ 5:43 PM ET
Lol. Exactly. I have no idea what they are thinking. I wouldn't trade them the rights to sign Tierney for Anderson.
- Bartacus

They're thinking the exact same things as when they drafted Boucher... big body/physical guy = must have. There was no way Josh Anderson wasn't going to eventually come up as a potential addition... but if there's anything even close to a 1st round pick being discussed in exchange, Dorion shouldn't just be fired... he should be put away.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 6 @ 5:43 PM ET
When Paul Maurice was appointed coach of the Florida Panthers he was asked who are teams in the Division that the Panthers need to wary about if they are to finish first. His answer was pretty simple: Toronto and Ottawa.

What does Maurice's hockey eye see that some Ottawa fans are missing?

spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 6 @ 6:06 PM ET
There are extensive studies around the phenomenon of astute observers failing to perceive something happening in plain sight. If you are conditioned to look for something or want to believe something you can be easily convinced that you see something you do not.

Senators have made some very sharp player selections and this is going to be a very good team. Yet there are many who are convinced that Ottawa has not had their fair share of 1.6 players per draft who will make it into the NHL. We see Zaitsev playing 19 minutes but miss that Chabot is logging 26 minutes in the same game. We think the kids don't get enough playing time. But fail to see the top minutes of special teams (power play and penalty kill) are dominated by the kids.

Folks are predisposed to believe Dorion is going to make a bad decision. This phenomena of willful blindness suggests we are already disposed to want to see a failed outcome. If, on the other hand, Dorion hits a home run, many of us will be disappointed, perhaps even feel deceived.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 6 @ 6:13 PM ET
Andy Strickland
@andystrickland
·
19m
Matthew Tkachuk trade rumors swirling…some talk of last offer from #Flames to Johnny Gaudreau was in the $9.5 range.


So, would most of you agree this would be a home run?
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 6 @ 6:18 PM ET
Matthew Tkachuk is the only player that I ranked higher than Pierre Luc Dubois on my list of guys that I thought the Sens might like to target.
SensFan25
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 08.24.2006

Jul 6 @ 6:40 PM ET
Folks are predisposed to believe Dorion is going to make a bad decision. This phenomena of willful blindness suggests we are already disposed to want to see a failed outcome.
- spatso

Think confirmation bias. Dorion's track record of pro player assessment is quite bad. While I am willing to judge each trade on its own merits, my preference is for no major moves. Make the pick at #7, take BPA. And just because we don't trust Dorion to make a good trade, it does not mean we want him to fail.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 6 @ 9:28 PM ET
Every time I finish a paragraph relating to a player, I get other sources reaching out to me. I am hoping to get something up late tonight or in the morning. Lots of info out there.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 6 @ 9:29 PM ET
Those are ambitious targets, but feasible without even screwing over the team's salary structure too much, especially since we no longer have to pander to the unpredictable whims of a homophobic, regressive egomaniac with similar management style and personality quirks to Donald Trump. RIP and good riddance.

What we need to do is stop listening to rumour mill garbage and talking about what is on top of the scrap heap pile of deadweight other GMs want hyped up in the media to up their potential trade return value (the same way Dorion does with our players using Garrioch et al).

I don't care about Debrincat or Keller. Both are overpriced in terms of trade return value and future salary outlay. I want players that will make the Sens better as a team, not help out other teams with managing their way out of their own salary cap hells or help them to sign the players they actually want to keep.

We are so well set up to make some noise this year with minimal long-term cost impacts. Tierney ($3.5M), Mete (1.2M), and Gaudette ($1.0M) coming off the books mean $5.7M to dedicate to a new impact player alone with NO net salary increase. White's buyout means an added $3.9M in extra cap space ($4.75M-0.875M) available.

So even without any new salary outlays, we have $9.5M to go shopping with (enough for buying a Malkin, if we want, which we likely don't) or even just to offset the new Norris, Formenton, Joseph and/or Brannstrom contracts while still having about $26M in cap space left. Awesome!

My fan voice is saying to double down on our douch-e-baggery and try to leverage Vegas hard and pay em back for the shade thrown after the Dadonov trade and what they still owe us for Mark Stone. Offer a poop package of a 2nd, 4th and Aspirot for Jonathan Marchessault or Shea Theodore. But screw them, they can lie in the pointy nail bed they've made for themselves for the next five years.

Nope, it is time to turn the screws on some teams and start thinking big.

My plan would be as follows for this offseason - not necessarily in the order presented:

-Re-sign our RFAs listed above (Norris x 7yrs, Brannstrom x 3, Joseph x 2, Formenton x 4) to the salaries outlined below

-On draft day, trade a 2022 2nd (OTT), 2022 3rd (BOS) and Viktor Lodin to LA for Viktor Arvidsson. They get what they paid back for him plus a decent prospect and we help em out of their cap hell slightly, plus help annoy Brandon Lemieux in a minor way, which will make Tkachuk happier too.

-Also on draft day, be willing to pay the king's ransom AZ wants for some quality coming back. AZ trades Lawson Crouse (RFA) and Jacob Chychrun to OTT for their 2023 1st (it won't matter as we won't be in the Bedard sweepstakes), Tyler Boucher, Jacob Bernard-Docker, Filip Gustavsson, Connor Brown and Nikita Zaitsev.

-Later in the off-season, trade Matt Murray and Egor Sokolov to ANA for John Gibson and a 2023 2nd. We get the quality goalie we need in their prime years and they get the future cap relief for draft capital.

-Go big in UFA, sign Claude Giroux (x3 years).

-Draft J Kemmell or C Gauthier in the 1st round this year, use the rest of our picks to round out the d corp prospect depth.

Come into next season looking like this:

Tkachuk (8.2)-Norris (7.3)-Batherson (5.0) - Steady and familiar chemistry
Giroux (6.8)-Stutzle (0.9)-Arvidsson (4.3) - What a line that will be!
Joseph (2.3)-Pinto (0.9)-Formenton (2.9) - What a line THAT will be!
Crouse (2.9)-Gambrell/Ostapchuk/Kastellic (0.9)-Watson(1.5)
ex: Kelly, Greig, depth UFA signings (e.g. Ennis)

Chabot (8.0)-Chychrun (4.6) - wow!
Sanderson (0.9)-Zub (2.5) - WOW!
Brannstrom (1.9)-Hamonic (3.0) - Better than most 3rd pairings in the league
ex: Holden, Thompson

Forsberg (2.8)
Gibson (6.4)

Total Cap Hit: $77.2M including salaries of extra players

Tons of room for new Pinto, Sanderson and Stutzle contracts, plus w/e depth adds are needed to keep really, really competitive over the compete window.

That's not just a playoff team, thats a scary freaking roster against any NHL team with the exception of COL and TBL right now, and they will grow into that echelon in 2-3 years.

Do it, PD! Do, it now!!!

- Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuub


Incredible post! So much time and effort went into this! Now, get PD on Line 1 and let him know you have what it takes to make this team a contender!!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 6 @ 9:51 PM ET
One of the AZ beat reporters had this tweet. Can you say they will be tanking for Bedard?!

Arizona starts the season with 20 of 24 on the road including a 14-game road trip? Fun.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 6 @ 9:57 PM ET
You're not wrong... it's incredibly rare to not play a top-6 quality C at their natural position when they enter the NHL, let alone when it's one of the centrepiece forwards of an entire team rebuild. If they were legitimately worried about how Stutzle would handle the transition to the North American game, he should have been playing C in the AHL... not W in the NHL. The decision to play him at C was 100% forced upon them, which also explains why he struggles with so many of the fundamentals of the position, like faceoffs and defensive coverage.

It's true, though, that there are several high-end C who rely heavily on their wingers for things like faceoff support, with MacKinnon and Pettersson being among the most obvious. This is where having a forward like Giroux or Trocheck would be very useful additions, as they're both very strong faceoff veterans, who also provide quality offensive support. Paul was inadvertently playing this role when they had him as the #2C, but he has nowhere near the skill set required to play that effectively on a playoff-quality team.

- khawk


Great post by both of you! Great teams make adjustments and put their players in a position to succeed. DJ likes to force players to do things against what they ask....Brannstrom is a prime example. It would be a like an OC in the NFL coming to a new team and telling the players they will play his system regardless of the skill set of his players....then the OC wonders why his offense isn't flourishing. Which is why in any pro sport, common sense should prevail and you play to your players strengths!
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jul 6 @ 10:19 PM ET
Incredible post! So much time and effort went into this! Now, get PD on Line 1 and let him know you have what it takes to make this team a contender!!
- Kevin Francis

Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 6 @ 10:58 PM ET
What universe are you watching hockey in? Smith hates playing the young players and we've all seen that and commented on it for some time now. The only time he plays them is when he has no other choice. If they make a mistake he benches them while allowing the veterans he loves so much to screw the pooch all night long game after game.

That's why everybody wants Dorion to get rid of Zaitsev because if he doesn't Smith will be playing Zaitsev on the top pairing all year. Then with Hamonic and Holden and even Brannstrom guys like Thomson and probably even Sanderson and certainly JBD will all be down in Belleville all year while armchair GMs come up with grand strategies for trading them away for a top 4D.

What a brilliant idea! Draft and develop players and then when they're ready to play for the big team trade them all away for guys other teams want to get rid of.

Smith was forced to play Stutzle at C because everybody was injured. Happily it turns out that that Stutzle flourished at C because his game is more suited to that position so you don't need to go chasing after another C anymore; especially when you've got Pinto and Greig coming along nicely and ready to join the club this year. If Pinto and Greig work out the way I think they will you're going to have to move Norris to the wing eventually which is probably where he belongs anyway. Why on earth would you trade away any of those guys to chase after a trouble maker like Dubois?

Then there are the people who want to trade away the young guys and top picks for Chychrun because he's good and has three more years on a great contract. If he was a right shot I'd love it but he's not. Square pegs and round holes. End of story.

Play Thomson with Chabot who says he likes playing with Thomson. That won't happen because Smith will play Zaitsev with Chabot, or Hamonic, anybody but Thomson.

Play Zub with Sanderson. Smith will even play Zaitsev or Hamonic with Sanderson for a couple of games so he can justify sending Sanderson down to Belleville. Smith will even play Brannstrom ahead of Sanderson.

- Whatisavailable


Some great points, you know I am with you on DJ and all you said here with regards to DJ!!! Great post.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 6 @ 11:00 PM ET
Just read this in Garrioch's column that he posted tonight.

Dorion was asked in French if he’d consider making a deal with the Habs to allow them to get the No. 7 pick? There’s talk the Habs have offered winger Josh Anderson in exchange for the pick.

“I have a lot of respect for Kent Hughes and (president of hockey operations) Jeff Gorton. If the trade allows both teams to improve we’ll consider it,” Dorion said. “If the trade allows both teams to improve, we will consider it seriously.”
Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Jul 7 @ 5:49 AM ET
Just read this in Garrioch's column that he posted tonight.

Dorion was asked in French if he’d consider making a deal with the Habs to allow them to get the No. 7 pick? There’s talk the Habs have offered winger Josh Anderson in exchange for the pick.

“I have a lot of respect for Kent Hughes and (president of hockey operations) Jeff Gorton. If the trade allows both teams to improve we’ll consider it,” Dorion said. “If the trade allows both teams to improve, we will consider it seriously.”

- Kevin Francis


Hughes knows dorion is a moron and he might get 7th for a overrated 3rd liner
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 7 @ 6:59 AM ET
Hughes knows dorion is a moron and he might get 7th for a overrated 3rd liner
- Mithos


We will not be pleased if that is the deal. I do like Anderson. But, Sens would need more coming back.

My list for adding a big physical forward who can skate starts with Matthew Tkachuk followed by Pierre Luc Dubois and Evander Kane. Anderson is not in the same class as these guys. But, he is the kind of player that would create time and space for Stutzle.

david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Jul 7 @ 8:14 AM ET
We will not be pleased if that is the deal. I do like Anderson. But, Sens would need more coming back.

My list for adding a big physical forward who can skate starts with Matthew Tkachuk followed by Pierre Luc Dubois and Evander Kane. Anderson is not in the same class as these guys. But, he is the kind of player that would create time and space for Stutzle.

- spatso


7th Overall

for

Anderson and 26th overall.


Dorion is going to "reach" with the pick either way, so in the end it doesn't matter...
Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Jul 7 @ 8:50 AM ET
7th Overall

for

Anderson and 26th overall.


Dorion is going to "reach" with the pick either way, so in the end it doesn't matter...

- david22


That would be so bad Andersen is not worth a first round pick.bu himself and does not bridge the gap between 7th and 26th
Bartacus
Ottawa Senators
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 01.08.2019

Jul 7 @ 8:51 AM ET
7th Overall

for

Anderson and 26th overall.


Dorion is going to "reach" with the pick either way, so in the end it doesn't matter...

- david22


This is interesting. I still think it's an overpay for JA, but 1st round draft capital coming back balances it... somewhat. If we offload Zaitsev I have little doubt JA quickly becomes a new albatross as he's given no indication in his
career to date that there's another level to his game. Dorion did arch-nemesis Leafs a favour taking NZ, now he's purportedly gonna do it with the other local rival. I'm biting my nails until 8pm this eve.
Cup 06
Ottawa Senators
Location: Tkachuk Town, ON
Joined: 03.01.2006

Jul 7 @ 9:54 AM ET
Sens are prepping for Giroux. They are willing to go up to 4 years. They think the signing will really excite the fanbase. Other targets are Ryan Strome,Rakell, and Marchment.

Like Garrioch mentioned this week. They are hoping to close the chapter on Zaitsev before the draft. They don't have the leverage there.

The Sens do NOT know if Formentum or Batherson are deeply involved in the HC case. Any speculation otherwise would be wholly irresponsible.

Formentum is being used as a trade piece. He has good value to retuen a more "finished"player. DJ has frustrations with him but understands he's young with really great potential. He doesn't dislike him.

Debrincat option is not closed but Chicago has to play ball. Their expectations are pretty unrealistic. Teams will have an issue with the 9m qualifying offer, not just Ottawa.


Sens are attaching Murray to the 7th pick if teams really want to get it.

- Cup 06



Lebrun: Still lots to play out over the next 6-7 days obviously, but I do believe the Ottawa Senators will emerge has a legitimate option, among other teams, for Claude Giroux when the market opens next Wednesday. I think the Sens will put their best foot forward in trying to sign him.

Like I said a couple days ago, the Sens will get their guy if he goes to market. Likely 4 years at at least 6mil per. He’s their most realistic top target.
Cup 06
Ottawa Senators
Location: Tkachuk Town, ON
Joined: 03.01.2006

Jul 7 @ 9:55 AM ET
I can’t see Anderson coming in unless Conner Brown is moved elsewhere.
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jul 7 @ 10:13 AM ET
Hughes knows dorion is a moron and he might get 7th for a overrated 3rd liner
- Mithos

Every GM in the league knows that if they make a deal with Dorion and it isn't lopsided in their favour then that would be an embarrassing disgrace that they will never live down and a black mark on their careers and resume.

What I particularly dislike is all these sports talking heads going on and on about how it's now or never. Dorion absolutely has to move the 7OA plus a lot of the Sens best assets and even future top picks to move the team forward. It's like they can't wait to roll around on the floor laughing hysterically at whatever dumb Dorion moves they have helped make happen. Plus if Dorion screws up badly enough often enough they won't have to witness the Sens kicking the butt of whatever team they favour.
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jul 7 @ 10:32 AM ET
I can’t see Anderson coming in unless Conner Brown is moved elsewhere.
- Cup 06

Two wrongs don't make a right.
Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13  Next