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Forums :: Blog World :: Theo Fox: Ruse de Guerre
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Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

May 26 @ 12:17 PM ET
At what point do you start to wonder if Turcotte will start slipping into the "bust" category. His first 3 years after being drafted have been tough. He has had injuries and you have had 2 Covid years. Does he become a D. Strome, who took a few years to arrive, and had struggled off and on, but has shown he can be an effective player in the right situation..or..does he become Alex Nylander, who has shown flashes of skill but has never been able to maintain it at the NHL level. Is he Kakko, maybe carrying too much expectations because of his high draft slot.
- TheTrob

Good question about Turcotte's future and trajectory. Many would argue the same thing with Dach.

Personally, I wouldn't mind taking a gamble on Turcotte as long as the assets given up aren't high-end. Yet, there are other prospects (on other teams, not just the Kings) who I covet more than Turcotte so could easily pass on him, too.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

May 26 @ 12:28 PM ET
Who did they trade away that are difference makers? I think Ottawa getting rid of Karlsson (which was forced upon them) ended up being a great trade for Ottawa. I don't remember NJ having any difference makers that they trade, I wouldn't call Palmeiri a difference maker. Coleman is a nice player on the third line, which is what he was for Tampa, but I am sure NJ was glad to get a first for him. Look at the Hawks with the load they got for Hagel. He is a nice piece, but no difference maker.
- LAHawk


I definitely don't want it to become a Mark Stone trade. That's all I'm saying, better than the Bagel deal with the Bolts.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

May 26 @ 12:54 PM ET
Great post....and again to the credit of Paul, the missing of that window to trade some of these past greats to replenish the pipeline was a huge miss..Similar to the Cubs not pivoting away from their core after seeing it not win from 2016-2021

I saw you didn't bring up Reichel and Dach...and again, nothing personal to either but we are quickly being reminded what happens when you decide that THIS kid should be chosen at 3rd overall and doesn't hit as quickly as you need, or possibly at all.....and yes, I am still hopeful Dach hits......but imagine if they had Caufield or Zegreras.....How easy it would be then to move on from a DeBrincat and still possibly get a massive return?

The more I sit here and think about it, and the more I watch these last 7 teams play...the Hawks are years away from playing at that level.....and IMO I don't think davidson could have walked in to a bigger $hit storm if we sat here and debated it for months.

He has 2 marque players who could fetch a big return...12/88

He has an overpaid top defensemen in Jones, who the more I see the likes of Fox and Makar play, the more I realize this is likely the new prototype top NHL defender...offensively gifted and needing a shutdown player to cover his @ss not only as a partner but his fs...see McKinnon cover him last night when we wandering deep?

He has the captain who is a shell of himself and has verbally given signs he doesn't know if he can personally handle a rebuild and what his role is.....

That's before we go looking down the roster further, and in the prospect pool.

I mean I can't think of many worse scenarios for Davidson to navigate than what he has on some white board at 1901 w madison and likely just shakes his head......

Oh and Sopel is the latest to come out and bash the hell out Bowman...maybe it's time to remove the ole red font from the #StanFail(s)

- SteveRain


Can we please let these kids actually develop into players? If the Hawks had Caufield or Zegras, they would still be dog poop and they would be in the exact same position. They need a ton of help. Trading ADB creates another huge hole. That is why you don't trade him unless someone comes in with a huge overpay (multiple firsts and prospects). They have a dearth of quality forwards overall.

As much as we dog on them both, McCabe and Murphy would draw more than we probably imagine. Teams want and need stay at home d-men, and getting them away from the disaster that is the current Blackhawks would likely do wonders for their on-ice performance.

There are several means for KD to acquire talent. Take on a bad contract for a year or two with a major prospect, EU FA, draft, trade, UFA whatever.

Strap in. It's going to take a long time.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

May 26 @ 1:08 PM ET
Can we please let these kids actually develop into players? If the Hawks had Caufield or Zegras, they would still be dog poop and they would be in the exact same position. They need a ton of help. Trading ADB creates another huge hole. That is why you don't trade him unless someone comes in with a huge overpay (multiple firsts and prospects). They have a dearth of quality forwards overall.

As much as we dog on them both, McCabe and Murphy would draw more than we probably imagine. Teams want and need stay at home d-men, and getting them away from the disaster that is the current Blackhawks would likely do wonders for their on-ice performance.

There are several means for KD to acquire talent. Take on a bad contract for a year or two with a major prospect, EU FA, draft, trade, UFA whatever.

Strap in. It's going to take a long time.

- Chunk


yeah I have bumped out my window to compete again until at least year 4, likely year 5...assuming KD hits on 90% of his moves. Tall ask but given what he has currently, he doesnt' have a ton of margin of error.

Oh team would still be crap...not doubting that...my point was the sooner you start to feel you have something in a prospect the easier it is to move on from a player like DeBrincat IF you choose to do so. That was point.....When you still have largely unknowns, it makes it tougher because if said unknowns don't hit....you have to replace them as well.....

I think most of us get it but watching this team navigate these up-and-coming rougher years trying to sell this team...will be fascinating to watch. Especially to the casual fan who doesn't LOVE hockey......
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

May 26 @ 1:55 PM ET
I definitely don't want it to become a Mark Stone trade. That's all I'm saying, better than the Bagel deal with the Bolts.
- BetweenTheDots

Has Mark Stone been worth the contract he signed with Vegas? Very good player, but overpaid IMO. 4 more years at $9.5 mil. Yeesh
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

May 26 @ 1:58 PM ET
Has Mark Stone been worth the contract he signed with Vegas? Very good player, but overpaid IMO. 4 more years at $9.5 mil. Yeesh
- LAHawk


Stone is a very very very good hockey player, traded for serious question marks, is Ottawa a better team with Stone on it instead of the players they traded for, absolutely
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

May 26 @ 2:02 PM ET
yeah I have bumped out my window to compete again until at least year 4, likely year 5...assuming KD hits on 90% of his moves. Tall ask but given what he has currently, he doesnt' have a ton of margin of error.

Oh team would still be crap...not doubting that...my point was the sooner you start to feel you have something in a prospect the easier it is to move on from a player like DeBrincat IF you choose to do so. That was point.....When you still have largely unknowns, it makes it tougher because if said unknowns don't hit....you have to replace them as well.....

I think most of us get it but watching this team navigate these up-and-coming rougher years trying to sell this team...will be fascinating to watch. Especially to the casual fan who doesn't LOVE hockey......

- SteveRain


I guess my concern is I don't think you want to move on from a player like ADB. He's young, extremely good, and dedicated to continual improvement. I don't think you move a player just because he gives you the best return.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

May 26 @ 2:09 PM ET
Stone is a very very very good hockey player, traded for serious question marks, is Ottawa a better team with Stone on it instead of the players they traded for, absolutely
- BetweenTheDots


But if your goal is to rebuild, you want a worse team in the interim to get higher draft picks to be better in the long term eg. the Rangers. What is the purpose of the Hawks going into next year with the same team? Same result, drafting 6-7 with dreck as prospects.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

May 26 @ 2:11 PM ET
Great post....and again to the credit of Paul, the missing of that window to trade some of these past greats to replenish the pipeline was a huge miss..Similar to the Cubs not pivoting away from their core after seeing it not win from 2016-2021

I saw you didn't bring up Reichel and Dach...and again, nothing personal to either but we are quickly being reminded what happens when you decide that THIS kid should be chosen at 3rd overall and doesn't hit as quickly as you need, or possibly at all.....and yes, I am still hopeful Dach hits......but imagine if they had Caufield or Zegreras.....How easy it would be then to move on from a DeBrincat and still possibly get a massive return?

The more I sit here and think about it, and the more I watch these last 7 teams play...the Hawks are years away from playing at that level.....and IMO I don't think davidson could have walked in to a bigger $hit storm if we sat here and debated it for months.

He has 2 marque players who could fetch a big return...12/88

He has an overpaid top defensemen in Jones, who the more I see the likes of Fox and Makar play, the more I realize this is likely the new prototype top NHL defender...offensively gifted and needing a shutdown player to cover his @ss not only as a partner but his fs...see McKinnon cover him last night when we wandering deep?

He has the captain who is a shell of himself and has verbally given signs he doesn't know if he can personally handle a rebuild and what his role is.....

That's before we go looking down the roster further, and in the prospect pool.

I mean I can't think of many worse scenarios for Davidson to navigate than what he has on some white board at 1901 w madison and likely just shakes his head......

Oh and Sopel is the latest to come out and bash the hell out Bowman...maybe it's time to remove the ole red font from the #StanFail(s)

- SteveRain


Its tough to say what Reichel is. He's dominated in Rockford and looked good in international play but hasn't been given much of a chance to establish himself in the NHL.

Maybe he's a productive two way secondary player like a Teräväinen at the high end. Then again maybe he's a Tomas Jurco. There isn't enough to say one way or another what the player is or isn't.

My opinion on Dach is that they went with the player who had "an NHL build" and could contribute immediately. They did not want to gamble on another smaller guy like Zegras or Caulfield or Turcotte and they became obsessed with size. This has been an issue with the org recently - in terms of a lack of identity and drafting or picking up players any which way the wind blows.

Dach about matched his totals from his rookie year this year. The wrist injury was certainly impactful. I don't think you'll know what he is or isn't until the end of next year. Ideally around the trade deadline you'll see a light go off. He's not a mean player and hasn't proven to be a player that is strong on the puck which are two things I find concerning for a player of his stature regardless of his developmental stage. Even with the wrist injury he should have come back with more lead in his ass.

Either way, with both of those two players, they may be good complimentary players but not guys you build around and not ones you abandon at this stage. The potential to add more chances at talent is there by taking salary and flipping a player that could be seen as a high risk move.

If you're confident that the two pick this year has a reasonably good chance of hitting on a very good player and that having 10 or 12 shots in the first two rounds the two years after to round things out (assuming they're being compensated in that manner for taking salary) - it starts to get interesting just from a numbers perspective.

Something like that could make a guy like Kane want to stay around, do his thing, get his money, break his records and help usher in the next era of Hawks hockey which could have a pretty solid foundation based on the numbers game alone and would be even more exciting if this group has a decent plan in place and solid identity to move forward with.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

May 26 @ 2:21 PM ET
So Ottawa and NJ trading away all their talent for picks and prospects, now because they are ready to compete they have to trade back for experienced players they couldn't draft or develop? Just let that soak in
- BetweenTheDots


They have the players they have drafted and developed playing now and doing fairly well. Adding to a decent core is necessary. The Hawks did it and supplemented their talent with Hossa, Ladd, Campbell, Madden. Ruutu was moved for Ladd and Sharp was brought in moving Ellison and a third.

Not everyone is going to be drafted.

The top two centers for Jersey are very good hockey players. They also have a very good one\two punch on the blue line.

They have an opportunity now to add experience to their roster and fill in some gaps and you need to give to get.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

May 26 @ 2:32 PM ET
I guess my concern is I don't think you want to move on from a player like ADB. He's young, extremely good, and dedicated to continual improvement. I don't think you move a player just because he gives you the best return.
- Chunk


well the question is how good will DeBrincat be when they are good again? Assuming he wants to extend for a rebuild in his prime years. Same questions you can ask about Toews/Kane but they won cups already. DeBrincat has been to the playoffs 1 time thanks to covid.

Think we are all underestimating that the toughest guy to sell on this rebuild likely is DeBrincat who may want a shorter term contact so he can hit UFA quicker if the rebuild isn't going as quickly as he would like.

I see it from both sides. I get the value of him. I do. I like 12 a lot. Stood up for him 2-3 years ago when he wasn't scoring and getting chances and 98% of this board wanted to jettison him to moon.

Just saying if you as a fan are committed to rebuilding, than you have to be open to making moves that help bring back as many assets as possible to this team. There arent' many, likely 1, who would sniff the return 12 gets you on the open market. Hell, he likely gets the biggest return even more so than Kane given age, and upcoming RFA status.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

May 26 @ 2:35 PM ET
But if your goal is to rebuild, you want a worse team in the interim to get higher draft picks to be better in the long term eg. the Rangers. What is the purpose of the Hawks going into next year with the same team? Same result, drafting 6-7 with dreck as prospects.
- LAHawk


I get what you are saying, but Stone would be a valuable player on the Sens now, he would be an excellent role model for the young players, kind of like Doughty and Kopitar

Since 2017 Sens haven't drafted higher than #3, tank mode

Kings #2

NJ two #1s and both are okay players

Rangers got lucky they got #1 and a #2 they didn't tank the lotto ball fell the right way both years for them, some may say it was fixed?

If they want to lose all they have to do is not pay a goalie, I'd rather go that route and hold on to my young top 6 players, because of they do draft well and if Bowman was right about 3 of our dmen he recently drafted this thing can turn around sooner than later.


BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

May 26 @ 2:41 PM ET
They have the players they have drafted and developed playing now and doing fairly well. Adding to a decent core is necessary. The Hawks did it and supplemented their talent with Hossa, Ladd, Campbell, Madden. Ruutu was moved for Ladd and Sharp was brought in moving Ellison and a third.

Not everyone is going to be drafted.

The top two centers for Jersey are very good hockey players. They also have a very good one\two punch on the blue line.

They have an opportunity now to add experience to their roster and fill in some gaps and you need to give to get.

- fattybeef


Yea I'm thinking a team that had less points than the Blackhawks over the past year isn't going to be giving away any 1st round draft picks just yet.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

May 26 @ 2:45 PM ET
Its tough to say what Reichel is. He's dominated in Rockford and looked good in international play but hasn't been given much of a chance to establish himself in the NHL.

Maybe he's a productive two way secondary player like a Teräväinen at the high end. Then again maybe he's a Tomas Jurco. There isn't enough to say one way or another what the player is or isn't.

My opinion on Dach is that they went with the player who had "an NHL build" and could contribute immediately. They did not want to gamble on another smaller guy like Zegras or Caulfield or Turcotte and they became obsessed with size. This has been an issue with the org recently - in terms of a lack of identity and drafting or picking up players any which way the wind blows.

Dach about matched his totals from his rookie year this year. The wrist injury was certainly impactful. I don't think you'll know what he is or isn't until the end of next year. Ideally around the trade deadline you'll see a light go off. He's not a mean player and hasn't proven to be a player that is strong on the puck which are two things I find concerning for a player of his stature regardless of his developmental stage. Even with the wrist injury he should have come back with more lead in his ass.

Either way, with both of those two players, they may be good complimentary players but not guys you build around and not ones you abandon at this stage. The potential to add more chances at talent is there by taking salary and flipping a player that could be seen as a high risk move.

If you're confident that the two pick this year has a reasonably good chance of hitting on a very good player and that having 10 or 12 shots in the first two rounds the two years after to round things out (assuming they're being compensated in that manner for taking salary) - it starts to get interesting just from a numbers perspective.

Something like that could make a guy like Kane want to stay around, do his thing, get his money, break his records and help usher in the next era of Hawks hockey which could have a pretty solid foundation based on the numbers game alone and would be even more exciting if this group has a decent plan in place and solid identity to move forward with.

- fattybeef



I like the plan you lay out here.

To me, I see more flashes from Reichel and maybe once he pots his first one in the show he takes off confidence wise. Just seems to have more skill and awareness and has succeeded everywhere but the NHL.....so far.

Dach...You see the goals where he gets moving, drives the net and shows quick hands for a big guy....flash....and then he disappears for long stretches and it's aggravating. I agree on your timeline.....would Ottawa take Murphy/Dach for 7 this year and 2nd round in 2023? Then you move DeBrincat to NJ and get 2....You then have 2, 1s this year, and you are an Edmonton win away from a 3rd 2nd this year. You get 1 of the 2 players worth a crap this year overall, and now you are rolling.

Tank next year...Sign Delia, start him, and be in contention for 1st overall next year, along with Tampa's 1st and 3 2nds in a deep draft.

That to me gets me excited. that's before you even factor in what you could get for Toews and/or Kane if 1 and/or both ask to be dealt.

I'll defer to Wiz on the prospects this year....but that Canadian kid or Slafkovsky is there at 2.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

May 26 @ 2:59 PM ET
Yea I'm thinking a team that had less points than the Blackhawks over the past year isn't going to be giving away any 1st round draft picks just yet.
- BetweenTheDots


New Jersey GM just said they will be open to trade their 2nd overall pick for an impactful player......so there's that.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

May 26 @ 3:08 PM ET
New Jersey GM just said they will be open to trade their 2nd overall pick for an impactful player......so there's that.
- SteveRain


Yea, which to me is buyer beware, 2 teams that rely heavily on the draft willing to trade out of the top 10, to me if i understand Wiz correctly you let those teams eat those picks.

It's not like they are offering their 2023 1st round pick, are they?
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

May 26 @ 3:13 PM ET
Yea, which to me is buyer beware, 2 teams that rely heavily on the draft willing to trade out of the top 10, to me if i understand Wiz correctly you let those teams eat those picks.

It's not like they are offering their 2023 1st round pick, are they?

- BetweenTheDots


Not that I have seen but if it's DeBrincat he likely could get multiple 1sts

I don't know....I read the top 2 picks in this draft are solid....after that it gets a little sketchy.

Just hard to sit here and read people saying that they are fine doing a rebuild but you can't trade DeBrincat, Toews, Kane, etc......as you can certainly go that route but the time to get back in contention pushes a LOT further out given what picks, prospects they have TODAY
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

May 26 @ 3:35 PM ET
Not that I have seen but if it's DeBrincat he likely could get multiple 1sts

I don't know....I read the top 2 picks in this draft are solid....after that it gets a little sketchy.

Just hard to sit here and read people saying that they are fine doing a rebuild but you can't trade DeBrincat, Toews, Kane, etc......as you can certainly go that route but the time to get back in contention pushes a LOT further out given what picks, prospects they have TODAY

- SteveRain


Kane, Toews i understand 24 year old not so much

LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

May 26 @ 4:02 PM ET
Interesting that the 2022 draft class is ranked stronger than the 2021 class was, and the BOD is crying because #12 pick Cole Silinger played the entire year in Columbus. There are still very good prospects in the draft, and as fatty said the more kicks at the can you can get, the odds are that one or more will exceed expectations.
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

May 26 @ 4:31 PM ET
Good question about Turcotte's future and trajectory. Many would argue the same thing with Dach.

Personally, I wouldn't mind taking a gamble on Turcotte as long as the assets given up aren't high-end. Yet, there are other prospects (on other teams, not just the Kings) who I covet more than Turcotte so could easily pass on him, too.

- Theo Fox

What prospects to covet on other teams do tell? Just curious
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

May 26 @ 4:34 PM ET
Honest question....do you think this is a smear campaign against him at this point? Between Foley as the season ended bringing it up a few times unprovoked and even the Sopel interview yesterday....seems some talking points are out there.

I wouldn't put it past the Wirtz's to bash a fall guy after letting THE guy they should be bashing the living hell out of, McDonough, get off scott free.....Funny how that works, eh? Not one whisper of him or ripping him by anyone in the organization especially after the way Talon left the team.........

- SteveRain


Biggest injustice in the aftermath of the of the past regime is how McD skates.
Especially how he mostly escaped the Beach aftermath.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

May 26 @ 4:35 PM ET
So B Byram one bad hit away from a concussion which would end his career? He does have the history of concussions. But it would be remiss to say, it was wrong to draft him #4 overall or wish you had someone else now. You draft talented players and you do not predispose whether they will (continue) a concussed career.

Yesterday vs the Blues I can say it was the Avalanche who suffered a lesson of experiencing the Blues

Byram contribution:
18:53 TOI
2 assists
4 shots
3 hits

Ouch
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

May 26 @ 4:37 PM ET
I guess my concern is I don't think you want to move on from a player like ADB. He's young, extremely good, and dedicated to continual improvement. I don't think you move a player just because he gives you the best return.
- Chunk


You have to admit, he's one of the few young players who has actually improved and gotten better under the Hawks. Most don't, most if they get better do it after they've left the Hawks organization.
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

May 26 @ 4:38 PM ET
I guess my concern is I don't think you want to move on from a player like ADB. He's young, extremely good, and dedicated to continual improvement. I don't think you move a player just because he gives you the best return.
- Chunk

The big question regarding Debrincat is does he want to stay through a 3 to 5 year rebuild during his prime years. Keep him he part if the solution and future captain imo. Trade him and most likely get bug haul back. I think if a team for example like jersey is willing to give the hawks the 2nd overall pick on this upcoming draft and other assets have to think Davidson would have to consider it. Similar to the Hagel trade.
Angotti
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2019

May 26 @ 4:41 PM ET
I like the plan you lay out here.

To me, I see more flashes from Reichel and maybe once he pots his first one in the show he takes off confidence wise. Just seems to have more skill and awareness and has succeeded everywhere but the NHL.....so far.

Dach...You see the goals where he gets moving, drives the net and shows quick hands for a big guy....flash....and then he disappears for long stretches and it's aggravating. I agree on your timeline.....would Ottawa take Murphy/Dach for 7 this year and 2nd round in 2023? Then you move DeBrincat to NJ and get 2....You then have 2, 1s this year, and you are an Edmonton win away from a 3rd 2nd this year. You get 1 of the 2 players worth a crap this year overall, and now you are rolling.

Tank next year...Sign Delia, start him, and be in contention for 1st overall next year, along with Tampa's 1st and 3 2nds in a deep draft.

That to me gets me excited. that's before you even factor in what you could get for Toews and/or Kane if 1 and/or both ask to be dealt.

I'll defer to Wiz on the prospects this year....but that Canadian kid or Slafkovsky is there at 2.

- SteveRain

So if you do the bolded, then what? Trade the players from these drafts in a couple of years for more picks? I’m sorry but I don’t agree with your strategy. You are rebuilding, you don’t trade young assets while rebuilding unless you get blown away, and I doubt what you are proposing above will blow KD away. I could understand if you trade Kane for picks and young assets, he’s heading into his mid thirties and you are rebuilding, I’d hate to see that happen but I would be aligned. Remember, for every McDavid there are ten’s of Yakupov’s….
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