It would've only been 15.4% chance at 4th overall. I don't think it's that big of a deal, really. We lost way more games from being unlucky than we won by getting lucky this season. We shouldn't be this low in the standings in the first place.
- Pomegrant

Yup, this big time. We shouldnt even be in the top 10 let alone having top 5 odds. Being in the 4 slot only grants you a 15.4% shot at actually staying there, so its whatever. And its only 1% high chance at actually winning a top 2 pick. In this draft, 1 draft spot difference isnt going to make a big deal.

But now knowing unless we win the lottery, we are guaranteed 5 or later im 100% trying to trade the pick. Easiest decision of my life. If Wright and Cooley are off the board(which they will be) then ship it out. Hopefully Fitz feels the same way.

So now that the season is over, this is the perfect time for this and people have already been all over the math. Here is the breakdown of the Devils biggest "problem areas" this season:

-Based on goalies being so incredibly below breakeven at -61 GSAx, the goaltending has cost the Devils ~11 wins this season.

-Based on comparing the PP G+/- differential(+19) to the league average(+43), the power play has cost the Devils ~4.5 wins.

-The Devils had below expected finishing this season(slightly above 8 goals scored below xGs on the season), the slight lack of finishing has cost the Devils ~1.5 wins.

So in total our biggest weaknesses have cost this team a combined ~17 wins(~34 points) this season. And this isnt taking into account all the injuries and sicknesses that this team had this season. So we finished with 63 points on the season, but that becomes ~83 points if this team just had league average/expected goaltending. That number then becomes ~92 points with both expected goaltending and an average power play. That number then becomes ~96 points if we get league average/expected numbers from all three of the problem areas listed above. Thats just from getting the bare minimum of being league average or expected, so its not even accounting for if we get above average or dare i say good output in those areas.

So again, even if you give or take a few points here and there, or even just go conservative on those point totals, this team shouldve been much much closer to being one of the first teams out of the wild card spot if they had any type of non-dogpoop goaltending and PP. Which is exactly where most people expected this team to be prior to the season. Hopefully the team can stay healthy on top of improving those areas for next season.

Going to be a very interesting offseason here for Fitz. The problems that need to be addressed are very clear

It would've only been 15.4% chance at 4th overall. I don't think it's that big of a deal, really. We lost way more games from being unlucky than we won by getting lucky this season. We shouldn't be this low in the standings in the first place.
- Pomegrant

My point was that i don’t care about the lottery.. that’s why I said id take 4th overall with 0% chance at winning the lottery rather than 5th overall with 25% lottery odds. Just wanna pick 4 instead of 5.

So barring any kind of horrible lottery luck, if we keep the pick we have an 86.1% chance of staying in the top 6. Unless Tom is off his rocker come draft night we'll end up with one of Wright, Cooley, Jiricek, Slafkovsky, Nemec, or Savoie. Theres a decent chance multiple of them will still be on the board when we pick with how this draft will likely play out too.

Along with Bahl, Foote, Holtz, Zetterlund, Okhotiuk, and Walsh, Chase Stillman is heading with them to Utica now that his OHL season is over.

So barring any kind of horrible lottery luck, if we keep the pick we have an 86.1% chance of staying in the top 6. Unless Tom is off his rocker come draft night we'll end up with one of Wright, Cooley, Jiricek, Slafkovsky, Nemec, or Savoie. Theres a decent chance multiple of them will still be on the board when we pick with how this draft will likely play out too.
- vlongo4419

Can you go through those 6 for us? perhaps the top 10? (This is me trusting your accumulated knowledge over me spending time googling different sites).

So barring any kind of horrible lottery luck, if we keep the pick we have an 86.1% chance of staying in the top 6. Unless Tom is off his rocker come draft night we'll end up with one of Wright, Cooley, Jiricek, Slafkovsky, Nemec, or Savoie. Theres a decent chance multiple of them will still be on the board when we pick with how this draft will likely play out too.
- vlongo4419

Wasn't Savoie once supposed to be top 3 but was dropping during the season where some were saying top 12

Which do you think would fit the devil's style the most? Who could help the most

Wasn't Savoie once supposed to be top 3 but was dropping during the season where some were saying top 12

Which do you think would fit the devil's style the most? Who could help the most
- dmarsden2988

Preseason I think Savoie was #2 behind Wright. Consensus now seems to be Cooley at 2 with Savoie anywhere from 4-10 ish.

We are going to pick 1,2, 5, 6 or 7. A guess would be Wright, Cooley, Slafkovsky and Nemec will be gone if we stay at 5.

Jiricek is the next highest rated D, Kemell, Lambert and Savoie would be the highest rated forwards left. I don’t know that there’s a bad pick in there assuming they keep the pick.

I wouldn’t mind trading back a bit and taking Denton Mateychuk, he looks like what Ty Smith was supposed to be.

Can you go through those 6 for us? perhaps the top 10? (This is me trusting your accumulated knowledge over me spending time googling different sites).
- MartysBetter88

Haha yeah so those are my top 6, but honestly in this draft outside of Wright at #1 its really all over the place.

Wright - Started off super slow this season but not completely unexpected because he didnt play at all last season due to the OHL being shut down because of covid. Which is where a lot of the slack on him has come from, but he really has finished the season strong. Solid skater and very good two-way game. Projects to be a potential good #1 C or a very elite #2 C. He is essentially a better Hischier imo. They play almost the same exact game, but the difference between the two to where id say Wright is better(comparing him to when Nico was a prospect in his draft year) is that Wright has a much better shot. Should be in the NHL next season.

Cooley - Should be the locked and loaded #2 pick imo. I think theres a drop off after the top 2. Elite explosive skater and even though he's 5'10 is very aggressive/pesky forechecker and can be hard to knock off the puck at times. Good on the cycle because of that as well. Exceptional hands/stickhandling. Not as good as Wright defensively but he has a good enough two-way game that his defense wont be an issue for a young player. and is used on the PK at times by his team. Also is prone is very high danger-high risk passes. Likely is one and done in college at Minnesota.

Jiricek - Imo he is the best defenseman in this draft. I think this is almost like the Drysdale/Sanderson discussion from a few years ago. Not as offensively gifted as Nemec but his skills are the more translatable to the NHL level. Sound defensively, brings a physical presence, has very good gap control, and challenges the blueline when attackers are trying to enter the zone a lot of time due to his good gap control. Has some offensive upside with a bomb of a slap shot, good at walking the line in the offensive zone. Makes a good first pass on breakouts and in transition. Solid skater and very good edgework for a "bigger" defenseman. Probably needs another year in the Europe pro league then some time in the AHL due to a lot of missed time from injury. But hes not far off from making the jump to the NHL.

Slafkovsky - Okay in terms of our team outlook, Slafkovsky would be a very good add because he has a ton of what our forward group doesnt have. He is a big body and he uses it well. He is very good at puck possession and protection, as well as having strong board play. He provides heavy pressure on the forecheck. His shot is elite. He needs to work on his skating and neutral zone play in general. But lets not kid ourselves, if he hits he would compliment Jack VERY well. His weaknesses are easily covered up by Jack. The negatives on him are pretty much production(he has one of the worst draft-year Liiga production of pretty much any 1st round Finnish player in the last 20 or so years). But we saw at the Olympics that he can thrive when playing with good players. As i said, i think there is a drop off after the top 2 in the class and while i really do like Slafkovsky, there is certainly bust potential here but if he hits he can develop into a very solid power forward.

Nemec - Having a historic season in the Slovak pro league production-wise by a defenseman and theres no denying the offensive abilities. Strong skater and very mobile. Very good passer and making things happen in transition. Loves to join the rush any chance he gets and is huge risk taker both offensively and defensively. Doesnt have the best shot and he isnt shoot-happy, but he chooses when to shoot very wisely. He needs to get stronger because he tends to get bumped off the puck more than one would like and he loses battles defensively at times because he just gets out-muscled if he doesnt evade them with his shiftiness. The issue with him is that his offensive production so far this year isnt exactly fully translatable to the NHL, from what ive seen. A lot of secondary points or lucky bounces that just happen to end up in the back of the net. Dont get me wrong, hes a very good prospect and is a clear cut top 2 D in this class, i just prefer Jiricek to him. Hes multiple years away from making the jump.

Savoie - This kid is really freaking good and has a ton of upside. Top tier playmaking and vision. Very very good skater and edgework. Underrated shot that i think is actually pretty good. Isnt afraid to get into the dirty areas at all. Needs work defensively and he is a very pass happy player where he passes up on a shooting opportunity to pass the puck. He has 2 issues going against him this year, and 1 isnt even in his control. He's 5'9. Which shouldnt be a big deal, but to some people it is. Also, the first half or slightly more of the season he had a ton of difficulties producing at 5v5. A ton of his production was on the power play, which is not something that you want to see out of somebody in a junior league in their draft year. Theres certainly some risk here that his size holds him back from being an effective NHL player but the upside is there to where he can be a prolific player in somebody's top 6. Reminds me of a little mix of Barzal and Gaudreau. Hes multiple years away from making the jump.


We should be able to get one of them unless we get insanely unlucky and drop two spots to #7 and all 6 of these guys are the picks before us lol. Outside of those guys you're looking at Kemell(hard pass), Lambert(can probably trade back and pick up an extra pick and still get him), Nazar(would be fine), Gauthier(too high for me), or Geekie(absolutely not at this pick. Zacha all over again if we take him in this range). I dont think anybody else should even be remotely close to our draft board picking in the top 5-7.

Also, we better take Gleb Trikozov with our 2nd or 3rd round pick!!! He *should* be a 1st round pick, but he is being massively underrated by the industry scouts plus the Russian situation might cause him to drop. Could be the biggest steak of the draft.

I'm very interested to see Bob McKenzie's updated rankings whenever they come out, hopefully within the next month or so.

Dougie in his exit interview saying he played with a broken toe for most of the season. Seems odd that they were letting him play with that and not just get it healed up. At least a reason to why his skated seemed off after coming back from injury. The questions about his play can be attributed to these injuries and I'd expect a very nice rebound next season.

Ruff and Co. better be gone this week.

Devils players who are going to Worlds(as of now, will update if more are added):

-Nico and Siegs for Switzerland
-Sevo and Mercer for Canada
-Tatar for Slovakia
-Gillies for USA(lol)

Hughes has declined to go for USA.

Quick hit rumor. This is all unconfirmed and may turn to be false but there's rumors out there that both Recchi and Nas are expected to be relieved of their duties, and Ruff is expected to be "promoted" to a front office position in either an advisory role or a player development role. Also there is some talk that Sergei Brylin could be promoted from the AHL and be an assistant coach with the Devils next season.

Unfortunately it seems to be a common theme out there that everybody is getting mixed signals on a coaching change, and it really actually is up in the air and a 50/50 chance. Ruff in his exit interview would not say hes definitively coming back, "we're all being evaluated." So let's hope this rumor is true. *fingers crossed*

Lindy's exit interview makes it seem like he's been told that his job is in danger.

Lindy's exit interview makes it seem like he's been told that his job is in danger.
- Pomegrant

I'd be ok with whatever happens with Ruff

If he moves onto a more consulting role and player development which may be good, he seemed to get alot out of Hughes and Bratt and some others

If he stays as head coach but hopefully we can get adequate goaltending as I think that was a huge downfall as it was hard to gauge just how well he was coaching when the other team is given 2 goals just for bad goaltending

Or if he is relieved of his duties but we would then need to replace him with a new head coach and who would be a good candidate?

Hopefully at least recci is gone and maybe all the assistants

Would be great if we could find a goalie like shesterkin

Would be great if we could find a goalie like shesterkin
- dmarsden2988

Id take DeSmith at this point

Id take DeSmith at this point
- devils2929

I’d take back Domingue at this point… 🤦‍♂️

The Devils have announced that the team will not renew the contract of Alain Nasreddine/they have agreed to mutually part ways, and also that Mark Recchi has been relieved of his duties.

The Devils have announced that the team will not renew the contract of Alain Nasreddine/they have agreed to mutually part ways, and also that Mark Recchi has been relieved of his duties.
- vlongo4419

This seems like Lindy is being "promoted" and they will get a new head coach. Nas had a fine season but a new head coach is going to bring their assistants with them so no point in renewing his contract.

Curious if Ruff ends up staying or if it’s a new head coach with new assistants. Hughes and Bratt were pretty big on Ruff.

The Devils have announced that the team will not renew the contract of Alain Nasreddine/they have agreed to mutually part ways, and also that Mark Recchi has been relieved of his duties.
- vlongo4419

Weeeeeeeee

Tom Fitzgerald is having his media availability tomorrow morning. I assume we'll get clarity on Ruff one way or another, I'd be shocked if we didnt.

Would be great if we could find a goalie like shesterkin
- dmarsden2988

BUST!

The Devils have announced that the team will not renew the contract of Alain Nasreddine/they have agreed to mutually part ways, and also that Mark Recchi has been relieved of his duties.
- vlongo4419

These might be the best move they make all offseason.