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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Flyers Gameday: 12/1/21 @ NYR
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jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Dec 1 @ 3:57 PM ET
Exactly. While JVR and Oskar were positive in process but struggling on the scoresheet, the coaching staff should have done everything to break them out. Now they're both struggling in process too, and it's gonna take a minor miracle for either of them to get their seasons back on track.



- Tomahawk

I still have to ask, Maybe JVR is cooked and Lindblom is not going to return to the player he was before his unfortunate medical condition.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 1 @ 3:58 PM ET
Yes, compared to teams like Tampa who are tops in the league in HDCF% at 57%, the Rangers have a long way to go. Unfortunately, the Flyers have even a longer way to go.
- jd250


Those are indicators of why the Rangers are not a contender yet in my opinion. Which you argued with me on.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Dec 1 @ 3:59 PM ET
How come the stats for JVR in the latter half of last year didn't come into play when you repeatedly stated that the Flyers would have no problem trading JVR this next off season?
- MJL

Because at the time I was only looking at his final results, I didn't dig into how many points he scored in the first half compared to the 2nd half of the season. I agree now that the Flyers may need to buy out his final year because I don't see any team taking on his salary, not even for 1 year. I don't even any value in him unless he somehow gets on a hot streak, which he has done in the past.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Dec 1 @ 4:00 PM ET
I still have to ask, Maybe JVR is cooked and Lindblom is not going to return to the player he was before his unfortunate medical condition.
- jd250


JVR's playmaking and primary assists were a major driver of the team's early goal scoring. He didn't exactly look cooked then.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Dec 1 @ 4:00 PM ET
They will spot Risto and Sanheim next to Provy I wound assume.

Just so “#1 Dman” Provy does not exert himself reaching for any pucks we should be ok..

- Joe Nardone

Ouch! :-)
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 1 @ 4:01 PM ET
I still have to ask, Maybe JVR is cooked and Lindblom is not going to return to the player he was before his unfortunate medical condition.
- jd250


Both JVR and Lindblom showed early in the season that they can generate scoring chances at a high level. Hockey like any sport is mental. It begins to wear on a player. The coaching staff didn't do anything to help either player. It's difficult to get out of a slump when that happens. Normally a player will get deeper in before getting out of it. The coaching staff let this continue to happen without making adjustments. They waited to long. That is part of what is happening now.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Dec 1 @ 4:03 PM ET
Who gets hurt first Hayes or Allison? Someone set the odds
- hello it's me 2050

I hope neither, but I worry about Allison, these high ankle sprains are hard to predict. It will take him time to get his game back and get confidence back. But I sincerely hope they both stay healthy because having them both in this lineup should really help our goal production.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 1 @ 4:03 PM ET
Because at the time I was only looking at his final results, I didn't dig into how many points he scored in the first half compared to the 2nd half of the season. I agree now that the Flyers may need to buy out his final year because I don't see any team taking on his salary, not even for 1 year. I don't even any value in him unless he somehow gets on a hot streak, which he has done in the past.
- jd250



Something else you argued with me about. Even if JVR rebounds and plays well. He will still not be easy to move. Would likely require taking a contract back or retaining salary. A buyout of JVR is not a good idea at all.
Tonybere
New York Rangers
Location: ON
Joined: 02.04.2016

Dec 1 @ 4:06 PM ET
They're definitely trending in the correct direction. A player like Lafrenière is only going to get better. I have my doubts about Kakko but he is still very young. However, they have a ways to go and really I think Drury made some bad moves such as trading Buchnevich and deleting their skill level. As the season goes on, it will get tougher, not easier. Faceoffs have very little to do with overall possession numbers.
- MJL


We are heading in the right direction. The biggest thing has been that Shesterkin kept us afloat while guys tried to figure out how to play under Gallant.
Lafreniere has looked thoroughly meh most nights. In any other market he may have been sent down already. But, he looks to have the tools to get there at some point. Kakko is going to be very good, IMO. He is starting to gain confidence and try to make plays now that he has had a little success. His skating is his biggest problem, but his hands and possession skills are high end.
Buchnevich was a cap sacrifice and was to be "replaced" by Kravtsov until he got sand in his vagina and ran home. We are going to be up against it by next year.
You are absolutely right that faceoffs are somewhat overblown, but we suck SO BAD at them!! I don't remember ever seeing teams regularly lose 75-80% of draws game in, game out. That is a problem.
Anyway, once again hoping we see a good, competitive game tonight!
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 1 @ 4:14 PM ET
We are heading in the right direction. The biggest thing has been that Shesterkin kept us afloat while guys tried to figure out how to play under Gallant.
Lafreniere has looked thoroughly meh most nights. In any other market he may have been sent down already. But, he looks to have the tools to get there at some point. Kakko is going to be very good, IMO. He is starting to gain confidence and try to make plays now that he has had a little success. His skating is his biggest problem, but his hands and possession skills are high end.
Buchnevich was a cap sacrifice and was to be "replaced" by Kravtsov until he got sand in his vagina and ran home. We are going to be up against it by next year.
You are absolutely right that faceoffs are somewhat overblown, but we suck SO BAD at them!! I don't remember ever seeing teams regularly lose 75-80% of draws game in, game out. That is a problem.
Anyway, once again hoping we see a good, competitive game tonight!

- Tonybere



I'm quite sure that you've watched them play far more than I have. I've just seen some reports that said that Lafreniere has played well. I guess that was not accurate.
Minnyhock
Minnesota Wild
Joined: 06.26.2021

Dec 1 @ 4:15 PM ET
[quote=MJL]Both JVR and Lindblom showed early in the season that they can generate scoring chances at a high level. Hockey like any sport is mental.

Yogi Berra said baseball is 90% mental and the other half is physical.


Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Dec 1 @ 4:15 PM ET
Finally bee on top line and oh captain where he belongs. Not on top line. How many points true talent mika put up tonight? Over or under 3. I’ll take the over
hockeylover
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: There's always next year., NT
Joined: 08.03.2006

Dec 1 @ 4:17 PM ET
Wonder what Bigg Buff is up to....or Niskannen...or Dion Phanouf...andy mac.....
- hello it's me 2050



You'll make PLind's head explode.
Tonybere
New York Rangers
Location: ON
Joined: 02.04.2016

Dec 1 @ 4:27 PM ET
I'm quite sure that you've watched them play far more than I have. I've just seen some reports that said that Lafreniere has played well. I guess that was not accurate.
- MJL


He hasn't been a detriment really. But, for the most part not looking like a future superstar either. His shot release is excellent. You'll most likely see what I mean tonight.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Dec 1 @ 4:31 PM ET
Finally bee on top line and oh captain where he belongs. Not on top line. How many points true talent mika put up tonight? Over or under 3. I’ll take the over
- Stayin alive

Finally haha the guy was in a funk for what 13 games. Can’t have a “top line” guy doing that
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Dec 1 @ 4:34 PM ET
That seems like noise to me. A blip.

Sure, they could start regressing to the mean. But overall, Rags are shooting at about 9%, which is 6th relatively, and not that high absolutely. Meaning that when Kreider and company cool down, there is probably scope for a few other guys to pick up the slack.

Their ranks in shooting % are not THAT different from us for any kind of chances. Their ranks in possession and xGF% are also not that different from us either. All of which mean that offense alone (inclusing things like Kreider's sh%) do not explain the difference in results.

The only major difference I found is that Rangers give up about as many high danger chances as they get. We give up 50% more chances than we get.

That's a huge disparity.

- PT21


Rangers have what, 3 more high danger goals than the Flyers do on 419 total shots? That doesn't begin to cover the SH% gap between the teams at 5v5. 419 is also pretty damned low too... Flyers average about 3 shots more per game (maybe that's a function of score effects more than anything, but still).

The major disparities between the teams:
- the Rangers actually have a functioning PP,
- Shesterkin has maintained elite SV% while Hart/Jones have begun to normalize,
- And as mentioned before, they have a guy who's currently on pace for 60-goals on 25% shooting, lol.
bradster
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.18.2009

Dec 1 @ 4:40 PM ET
Those are indicators of why the Rangers are not a contender yet in my opinion. Which you argued with me on.
- MJL


pretty sure he made the comment and you argued with him why he is wrong
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Dec 1 @ 4:40 PM ET
I still have to ask, Maybe JVR is cooked and Lindblom is not going to return to the player he was before his unfortunate medical condition.
- jd250

I think JvR is suggesting to RW
Tonybere
New York Rangers
Location: ON
Joined: 02.04.2016

Dec 1 @ 4:41 PM ET
Rangers have what, 3 more high danger goals than the Flyers do on 419 total shots? That doesn't begin to cover the SH% gap between the teams at 5v5. 419 is also pretty damned low too... Flyers average about 3 shots more per game (maybe that's a function of score effects more than anything, but still).

The major disparities between the teams:
- the Rangers actually have a functioning PP,
- Shesterkin has maintained elite SV% while Hart/Jones have begun to normalize,
- And as mentioned before, they have a guy who's currently on pace for 60-goals on 25% shooting, lol.

- Tomahawk


- lol, Chris Kreider is Chris Kreider. He will normalize to around his annual goal total. I think with this start he will break 30, but certainly nowhere near 60.
- Shesterkin IS elite. I know it's still early, but you can just see it in his game.
- Our PP is a function of the confidence of the 5 players. Travelbanejad said the other day that they actually have no set plays. They just read off each other. That sounds like it will have large hot and cold swings to me.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 1 @ 4:48 PM ET
- lol, Chris Kreider is Chris Kreider. He will normalize to around his annual goal total. I think with this start he will break 30, but certainly nowhere near 60.
- Shesterkin IS elite. I know it's still early, but you can just see it in his game.
- Our PP is a function of the confidence of the 5 players. Travelbanejad said the other day that they actually have no set plays. They just read off each other. That sounds like it will have large hot and cold swings to me.

- Tonybere


Like any PP. The Rangers have a player that is an absolute necessity to win with in the NHL. You need that puck moving, play driving attacking defenseman. So tough to get but Fox picked his team and you guys reap the benefits. Flyers had that when Gostosbehere first came up but he didn't stay at that level.
Hextall271
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ersson-Ville, NB, NB
Joined: 01.18.2007

Dec 1 @ 4:48 PM ET
He hasn't been a detriment really. But, for the most part not looking like a future superstar either. His shot release is excellent. You'll most likely see what I mean tonight.
- Tonybere


Well. He seems to be faring better than our recent number 2 pick who is on IR for another team.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Dec 1 @ 5:18 PM ET
Rangers have what, 3 more high danger goals than the Flyers do on 419 total shots? That doesn't begin to cover the SH% gap between the teams at 5v5. 419 is also pretty damned low too... Flyers average about 3 shots more per game (maybe that's a function of score effects more than anything, but still).

The major disparities between the teams:
- the Rangers actually have a functioning PP,
- Shesterkin has maintained elite SV% while Hart/Jones have begun to normalize,
- And as mentioned before, they have a guy who's currently on pace for 60-goals on 25% shooting, lol.

- Tomahawk


Rags have:
Scored 1 less goal in high danger areas than opponents. For us, it is 4 less. (Difference: Rags +3, as you point out)
Scored 3 more goals in medium danger areas than opponents. For us, it is 1 more.
(Difference: Rags: +2)
Scored same # of goals in low danger areas than opponents, ours is 4 worse
(Difference: Rags +4)


So, altogether, Rangers have scored 9 more goals compared to their opponents than we have scored compared to ours (5-on-5). Of those 9, 4 have been in the low danger areas, 3 in high danger, and 2 in medium danger areas. But, there isn't as much disaprity in possession stats for medium and low danger areas as there is in high danger areas. Which presumably means that either our goalies have let in relatively more softies or its been bad luck or whatever.

Thats why I focused on HD areas. And yes, of course our pp inneptitude is a major factor, but I thought we were looking at the even strength drivers.

You seem obsessed with Kreider's shooting %!

(Btw, the stats I provided earlier for Rags s% was wrong. They are 14.47, we are 12.5.)
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Dec 1 @ 5:21 PM ET
I hope neither, but I worry about Allison, these high ankle sprains are hard to predict. It will take him time to get his game back and get confidence back. But I sincerely hope they both stay healthy because having them both in this lineup should really help our goal production.
- jd250

I hop so too so the excuses can stop then realize this team just isn't very good overall.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 1 @ 5:22 PM ET
Rags have:
Scored 1 less goal in high danger areas than opponents. For us, it is 4 less. (Difference: Rags +3, as you point out)
Scored 3 more goals in medium danger areas than opponents. For us, it is 1 more.
(Difference: Rags: +2)
Scored same # of goals in low danger areas than opponents, ours is 4 worse
(Difference: Rags +4)


So, altogether, Rangers have scored 9 more goals compared to their opponents than we have scored compared to ours (5-on-5). Of those 9, 4 have been in the low danger areas, 3 in high danger, and 2 in medium danger areas. But, there isn't as much disaprity in possession stats for medium and low danger areas as there is in high danger areas. Which presumably means that either our goalies have let in relatively more softies or its been bad luck or whatever.

Thats why I focused on HD areas. And yes, of course our pp inneptitude is a major factor, but I thought we were looking at the even strength drivers.

You seem obsessed with Kreider's shooting %!

(Btw, the stats I provided earlier for Rags s% was wrong. They are 14.47, we are 12.5.)

- PT21



Where are you getting the high, medium and low danger stats from?
Tonybere
New York Rangers
Location: ON
Joined: 02.04.2016

Dec 1 @ 5:24 PM ET
Like any PP. The Rangers have a player that is an absolute necessity to win with in the NHL. You need that puck moving, play driving attacking defenseman. So tough to get but Fox picked his team and you guys reap the benefits. Flyers had that when Gostosbehere first came up but he didn't stay at that level.
- MJL


Still shocked about that. Ghost looked like a HOFer as a rookie.
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