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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Shesterkin shuts down Matthews, Leafs; Robertson injured again
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TheMussel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.24.2013

Oct 20 @ 12:01 AM ET
Adin Hill.doing my fantasy team a solid tonight
Dozzer
Referee
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow since I’m way up high
Joined: 09.15.2010

Oct 20 @ 12:15 AM ET
As the proud owner of Hellebyuck in basically all my pools, I can confirm it's because he's been dog poop. 🤦🏻‍♂️
- joel878


I just checked the stats a little closer, the guy still had 38 saves even tho he let 6 goals in (44 shots for the wild in total)

Yikes Winnipeg… better get your poop together
Steven_Seagull
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Mitch Marner sucks
Joined: 03.03.2016

Oct 20 @ 12:25 AM ET
I just checked the stats a little closer, the guy still had 38 saves even tho he let 6 goals in (44 shots for the wild in total)

Yikes Winnipeg… better get your poop together

- Dozzer



Nah, (frank) ‘em
Aaron_85
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 04.22.2014

Oct 20 @ 1:16 AM ET
I just checked the stats a little closer, the guy still had 38 saves even tho he let 6 goals in (44 shots for the wild in total)

Yikes Winnipeg… better get your poop together

- Dozzer


Especially after they went and added new d-men
Dozzer
Referee
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow since I’m way up high
Joined: 09.15.2010

Oct 20 @ 1:49 AM ET
Especially after they went and added new d-men
- Aaron_85


Good point, just looked it up a bit

Nate Schmidt-6 years at $5.95 million a year and Brendon Dillon-4 years at $3.9 million, so damn near 10 million, I can imagine how they hope it was something that would improve their D.

Curious to know if this is just that learning window that new guys sometimes need
fifty__missions
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Burkie's Rented Barn, ON
Joined: 02.12.2013

Oct 20 @ 6:06 AM ET
Just have to figure out next season and then one of Brodie/Muzzin is probably gone the next.
- Santo_44

🤦‍♂️
MynameisJeff
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 06.01.2021

Oct 20 @ 8:32 AM ET
I feel like the answer to that would be either Garret Sparks or Antoine Bibeau. Nothing to write home about happening there...
- joel878



James Reimer. Not a first rounder and before Sparks or Bibeau.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Oct 20 @ 9:02 AM ET
I just checked the stats a little closer, the guy still had 38 saves even tho he let 6 goals in (44 shots for the wild in total)

Yikes Winnipeg… better get your poop together

- Dozzer



I've been saying this for years - Winnipeg has an interesting situation. Everybody was saying they have great youth, and such a great future. But so many of their key players are way up in age. Their window was always going to be short, if they ever had one, because as their youth got to their prime, their core vets would start to decline.

Byfuglien retired.. Many don't seem to realize, Blake Wheeler is pretty old and probably not far off retirement. Bryan Little was a key player, pretty old now. Then they lost Tyler Myers, because he was a malcontent.

They practically have to rebuild again.

Also, Boston is in the same boat. Some good youth, Pastrnak, McAvoy.... But they'll take huge hits as MArchand, and especially Bergeron age. Those guys are both way past their prime. Already lost Chara to age.
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Oct 20 @ 9:49 AM ET
I've been saying this for years - Winnipeg has an interesting situation. Everybody was saying they have great youth, and such a great future. But so many of their key players are way up in age. Their window was always going to be short, if they ever had one, because as their youth got to their prime, their core vets would start to decline.

Byfuglien retired.. Many don't seem to realize, Blake Wheeler is pretty old and probably not far off retirement. Bryan Little was a key player, pretty old now. Then they lost Tyler Myers, because he was a malcontent.

They practically have to rebuild again.

Also, Boston is in the same boat. Some good youth, Pastrnak, McAvoy.... But they'll take huge hits as MArchand, and especially Bergeron age. Those guys are both way past their prime. Already lost Chara to age.

- prock


I like the Jets. Winnipeg's defense fell apart. Trouba demanded a trade, Myers and Chiarot left in Free Agency and Byfuglien decided he preferred living in a unibomber shack in the woods.

They had this pairing in 2018 (47-30-5; .604%):

Trouba - Morrissey
Byfuglien - Chiarot
Myers - Kulikov

They moved from that to this in 2019 (37-28-6; .521%):

Poolman - Morrissey
Kulikov - Pionk
Sbisa - Beaulieu

. . . for the sake of argument, that projects to a prorated 9 point drop in the standings (from 94pts to 85). Not insignificant for a team that was on the bubble to begin with.

And this year they've corrected that to:

Schmidt - Morrissey
Dillon - Pionk
DeMelo - Stanley

No matter how you slice it, the defense is objectively better this year - but the objection to the objectivity is that someone like Schmidt isn't a tough defenseman. Poolman & Kulikov aren't great, but they can be physically difficult to play against - at least more so than Schmidt (Dillon is a tough physical D).

There are 78 games to go and Winnipeg has the talent to be at least competing for a playoff spot - for instance, you'd think with those adjustments in the back-end, they're good for a 5-7pt bump to the positive. I agree that they have a couple older guys in more than just supporting roles up front (Wheeler & Stastny), but Connor, Scheifele and Ehlers are very good players, and Dubois could maybe turn out to be more than just a waste of potential.

That said, they have played for years getting better than expected results by relying on Vezina-calibre goaltending from Hellebuyck, and if they don't get that, they're screwed.
Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Oct 20 @ 9:54 AM ET
Pain for Shane!
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Oct 20 @ 10:00 AM ET
Pain for Shane!
- Scabeh


Six point lead over Buffalo.
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Oct 20 @ 10:01 AM ET
Pain for Shane!
- Scabeh

New phone, who dis?
Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Oct 20 @ 10:01 AM ET
Six point lead over Buffalo.
- The Law


The way we are playing, they don't stand a chance!
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Oct 20 @ 10:02 AM ET
I like the Jets. Winnipeg's defense fell apart. Trouba demanded a trade, Myers and Chiarot left in Free Agency and Byfuglien decided he preferred living in a unibomber shack in the woods.

They had this pairing in 2018 (47-30-5; .604%):

Trouba - Morrissey
Byfuglien - Chiarot
Myers - Kulikov

They moved from that to this in 2019 (37-28-6; .521%):

Poolman - Morrissey
Kulikov - Pionk
Sbisa - Beaulieu

. . . for the sake of argument, that projects to a prorated 9 point drop in the standings (from 94pts to 85). Not insignificant for a team that was on the bubble to begin with.

And this year they've corrected that to:

Schmidt - Morrissey
Dillon - Pionk
DeMelo - Stanley

No matter how you slice it, the defense is objectively better this year - but the objection to the objectivity is that someone like Schmidt isn't a tough defenseman. Poolman & Kulikov aren't great, but they can be physically difficult to play against - at least more so than Schmidt (Dillon is a tough physical D).

There are 78 games to go and Winnipeg has the talent to be at least competing for a playoff spot - for instance, you'd think with those adjustments in the back-end, they're good for a 5-7pt bump to the positive. I agree that they have a couple older guys in more than just supporting roles up front (Wheeler & Stastny), but Connor, Scheifele and Ehlers are very good players, and Dubois could maybe turn out to be more than just a waste of potential.

That said, they have played for years getting better than expected results by relying on Vezina-calibre goaltending from Hellebuyck, and if they don't get that, they're screwed.

- Monkeypunk


yeah, sorry, I meant trouba when I mentioned Malcontent.

Their D was good, and it got decimated.

My point was, they had their top dman and their top forward in their mid 30s a few years ago. That's a huge blow, and basically means you're guaranteed to take a step back. And they have.

Boston had their top dman in his late 30s, top centre mid 30s, and top winger early 30s a few years ago, and that's starting to hit them. It will continue to do so.
Cush29
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Who Owzzzzz da' Chiefs?, ON
Joined: 12.22.2014

Oct 20 @ 10:03 AM ET
Good morning.

2 things:

1. I just had a "toad in a hole" for breakfast and it was fantastic. I had forgotten how good they are and saw one on a TV show last night of all things and couldn't erase it out of my brain all night.

2. Speaking of the Jets, I'm surprised nobody has posted about the Superman punch attempt from the Jets game last night.

https://twitter.com/hayyy.../1450626003924144134?s=20
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: This world is just a veil and the face you wear is not your own., ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Oct 20 @ 10:08 AM ET
Pain for Shane!
- Scabeh


Pain because you like it.

I’m sure there’ll somebody good left when you pick in the #10 spot. Bergevin won’t pick him but somebody good will be there.
TheMussel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.24.2013

Oct 20 @ 10:10 AM ET
Pain because you like it.

I’m sure there’ll somebody good left when you pick in the #10 spot. Bergevin won’t pick him but somebody good will be there.

- Canada Cup


I'm still confident that the Habs can put it together and rally for a 9th place finish in the east
Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Oct 20 @ 10:11 AM ET
I'm still confident that the Habs can put it together and rally for a 9th place finish in the east
- TheMussel



Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: This world is just a veil and the face you wear is not your own., ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Oct 20 @ 10:13 AM ET
Good morning.

2 things:

1. I just had a "toad in a hole" for breakfast and it was fantastic. I had forgotten how good they are and saw one on a TV show last night of all things and couldn't erase it out of my brain all night.

2. Speaking of the Jets, I'm surprised nobody has posted about the Superman punch attempt from the Jets game last night.

https://twitter.com/hayyy.../1450626003924144134?s=20

- Cush29


Are you having kippers tomorrow? Also that was the dumbest looking punch. That’s suspension worthy just for the ridiculousness. Also, also, Penguins just announced their sellout streak has come to an end so it’s not just an SBA issue
Cush29
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Who Owzzzzz da' Chiefs?, ON
Joined: 12.22.2014

Oct 20 @ 10:27 AM ET
Are you having kippers tomorrow? Also that was the dumbest looking punch. That’s suspension worthy just for the ridiculousness. Also, also, Penguins just announced their sellout streak has come to an end so it’s not just an SBA issue
- Canada Cup


Kippers.....

The punch attempt (because he essentially missed) looked incredibly silly agreed. I'm sure Kevin "bobble head" Bieska was smiling ear to ear though and I'd be a dollar it comes up on HNIC this Saturday. I just hope it's in the form of someone making fun of Bieska.

Leafs haven't had a sell out yet but I did read the Sens had only 8k at a game.....interesting times - what's the over/under MLSE would drop ticket prices? Ever?

lol
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Oct 20 @ 10:37 AM ET
yeah, sorry, I meant trouba when I mentioned Malcontent.

Their D was good, and it got decimated.

My point was, they had their top dman and their top forward in their mid 30s a few years ago. That's a huge blow, and basically means you're guaranteed to take a step back. And they have.

Boston had their top dman in his late 30s, top centre mid 30s, and top winger early 30s a few years ago, and that's starting to hit them. It will continue to do so.

- prock


Boston is irritating. Bergeron is 36, Marchand is 33 and even some of their bigger names like Hall and Foligno have crested that 30 plateau - but Marchand and Bergeron aren't hitting the natural post-prime slope in performance. They are propped up by guys still reaching their prime like McAvoy, Carlo and of course Pastrnak.

Bergeron is definitely someone you'd expect to have dropped off, but it's been indiscernible. One stat I'll use as a rough guide to a player's performance is the point share attributed on the hockey-reference site - it's both easily accessible, and it's been meted out to have an accurate "feel" when you look at the numbers and how they stand up to what you see and know. It's also explained in excruciating detail here: https://www.hockey-refere...m/about/point_shares.html, but have a large coffee with you if you want to read that.

Anyway the point of that preamble is that over the past two years Bergeron's prorated PS total has dropped consecutively (marginally) - but he is still adding value equivalent to that of a first line player on a good team. For the record, 37 seems to be magical number for even the best of the best to just drop (even taking the best case I recall seeing - Jagr at 41 & 43 had magical seasons, but when you consider his defensive woes at those ages, he was still probably adding overall value only equivalent to a 2nd line guy).

TheMussel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.24.2013

Oct 20 @ 10:46 AM ET
Kippers.....

The punch attempt (because he essentially missed) looked incredibly silly agreed. I'm sure Kevin "bobble head" Bieska was smiling ear to ear though and I'd be a dollar it comes up on HNIC this Saturday. I just hope it's in the form of someone making fun of Bieska.

Leafs haven't had a sell out yet but I did read the Sens had only 8k at a game.....interesting times - what's the over/under MLSE would drop ticket prices? Ever?

lol

- Cush29


Kippers
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Oct 20 @ 10:48 AM ET
Pain because you like it.

I’m sure there’ll somebody good left when you pick in the #10 spot. Bergevin won’t pick him but somebody good will be there.

- Canada Cup



It might cost too much to get Shane Pinto from Ottawa.. Shouldn't it, he's only 20? I mean Bergy can make a trade but it could cost an important piece..

PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Oct 20 @ 11:00 AM ET
Boston is irritating. Bergeron is 36, Marchand is 33 and even some of their bigger names like Hall and Foligno have crested that 30 plateau - but Marchand and Bergeron aren't hitting the natural post-prime slope in performance. They are propped up by guys still reaching their prime like McAvoy, Carlo and of course Pastrnak.

Bergeron is definitely someone you'd expect to have dropped off, but it's been indiscernible. One stat I'll use as a rough guide to a player's performance is the point share attributed on the hockey-reference site - it's both easily accessible, and it's been meted out to have an accurate "feel" when you look at the numbers and how they stand up to what you see and know. It's also explained in excruciating detail here: https://www.hockey-refere...m/about/point_shares.html, but have a large coffee with you if you want to read that.

Anyway the point of that preamble is that over the past two years Bergeron's prorated PS total has dropped consecutively (marginally) - but he is still adding value equivalent to that of a first line player on a good team. For the record, 37 seems to be magical number for even the best of the best to just drop (even taking the best case I recall seeing - Jagr at 41 & 43 had magical seasons, but when you consider his defensive woes at those ages, he was still probably adding overall value only equivalent to a 2nd line guy).

- Monkeypunk


I agree.. I don't like the Bruins either
TheMussel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.24.2013

Oct 20 @ 11:01 AM ET
It might cost too much to get Shane Pinto from Ottawa.. Shouldn't it, he's only 20? I mean Bergy can make a trade but it could cost an important piece..
- PatC80


Caufield for Pinto
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