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Forums :: Blog World :: Kevin Francis: Ottawa wins in OT over Winnipeg in pre-season opener!
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Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Sep 27 @ 11:13 PM ET
Signing bonuses are not subject to escrow. Same for performance bonuses. Signing bonuses are also safe from buyouts. It is guaranteed money.

Also, when a player receives a signing bonus it will be subject to tax in the country where the player is resident for tax purposes. ... A professional athlete who receives a signing bonus generally pays tax in the country where the player is a resident for tax purposes at the time they receive the bonus. It would provide an extra 10-15% to Brady in after tax dollars.

- SensFan25


Yes, great point! Well said.
SensFan25
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 08.24.2006

Sep 28 @ 12:00 AM ET
But, I think the signing bonus is limited to a maximum of 10% of the AAV.
- spatso

Maybe that's the case for entry level deals.

Take a look at this...
https://www.google.com/se...&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Players 2020-21 Bonus Bonus as % of pay
Matthews, Auston $15,200,000 95.6%
Marner, Mitch $14,300,000 95.3%
Tavares, John $11,090,000 92.4%
Nylander, William $3,500,000 58.3%
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Sep 28 @ 8:10 AM ET
Maybe that's the case for entry level deals.

Take a look at this...
https://www.google.com/se...&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Players 2020-21 Bonus Bonus as % of pay
Matthews, Auston $15,200,000 95.6%
Marner, Mitch $14,300,000 95.3%
Tavares, John $11,090,000 92.4%
Nylander, William $3,500,000 58.3%

- SensFan25


Lots of ambiguity on how the signing bonus works. This is the explanation that I have used for my understanding of how it works. But, no guarantee they have it right. From SB Nation, Pension Plan Puppets

For the last couple of offseasons, an easy story heading into July 1 was to goggle at how much the Leafs were going to pay out in signing bonuses. The Leafs flexed their rich-team muscles by signing John Tavares, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander to contracts with huge signing bonuses and very low base salaries in every year of the deal. Those deals were all front-loaded as well, so that the player would have a high percentage of the total contract value spent on Gucci beanies before the contract ever ran out. That was the best way for a player to gain an advantage from a team when all those deals were signed, and it was a good way for teams to negotiate away from even bigger AAVs on those deals by giving that monetary advantage to the player.

Those days are over.

The 2019-2020 salary was paid out in full with a final last paycheque issued during the pandemic pause in July. That final paycheque went right into the escrow account in full, and the new CBA Memo of Understanding (MOU) that was signed in early July had the entire escrow account paid out in full to the owners immediately. The expectation is that when the final accounting is done on this season, the players will owe even more than the 20% of their salaries already paid in because the NHL revenues were so low.

For 2020-2021, the escrow is set in the MOU at 20% again. In addition, the players are deferring another 10% of salary to the owners. That 10% is supposed to be paid back over three years. But it still erodes the value of front-loaded, signing-bonus laden contracts in the short term.

Salary lost to escrow and deferral
Player 2019-2020 2020-2021
Auston Matthews $3,180,000 $4,770,000
John Tavares $3,180,000 $3,600,000
Mitch Marner $3,200,000 $4,500,000
William Nylander $1,800,000 $1,800,000
Escrow and the salary deferral in the 2020-2021 season are both calculated on Total Salary, not the Base Salary after bonuses are paid.

The escrow amount for the 2020-2021 season is not expected, by any but the sunniest optimist, to ever be paid back, so most of the monies lost for this coming season will never be recouped. The pain continues in 2021-2022 with a 14-18% escrow rate, and it drops to 10% in 2022-2023.

spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Sep 28 @ 8:49 AM ET
Forbes Magazine with a focus on financial and business interests also comments on the issue of NHL escrow and how it impacts the Matthews contract.

"The NHL’s top-earning player for the 2020-21 season is Auston Matthews. The Toronto Maple Leafs center was scheduled to make $15.9 million in playing salary and bonus but will instead earn $13 million net of escrow and including deferrals (a bulk of the escrow payment will be deducted from his July 2021 bonus)."

spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Sep 28 @ 10:03 AM ET
I think the discussion on bonus money for Brady is total nonsense.

You only need to look at what is happening in the market. Dougie Hamilton, Kaprisov, Svechnikov, Coleman and Grubauer have all signed multiple year deals without any bonus payment attached to their deals.

Hyman signed with Edmonton including $6.25m in signing bonuses. But $5.25m is paid out in the last few years of the deal as a modified form of buyout protection.

Makar signed his monster deal with no bonus provisions except for a $1m bonus paid in the last year of his 6 year deal.

The mere fact that nobody is asking for front bonus money tells you that the option is simply not appealing to players or their agents. I do not believe bonus money is an issue in these negations except for journalists speculating on a subject where they do not have a clue.

Imagine the insanity of the idea that Brady is going to sign a front end loaded contract and then immediately pay upwards of 20% of the bonus directly into escrow.
HoweHatrick
Joined: 01.02.2014

Sep 28 @ 10:31 AM ET
Johnson: I expect a Tkachuk deal to be done in a week

https://www.tsn.ca/radio/...-done-in-a-week-1.1699328

Skip to 8:28 for the BT discussion.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Sep 28 @ 12:20 PM ET
I don't see it that clearly. A negotiable asset has value. It does not matter if the deal is a 3 or 4 year deal, Tkachuk cannot ask for no trade restrictions or conditions of any type. And nothing stops the Sens from dealing him after he signs a deal. My belief is he is a far more negotiable asset on a 3 year deal at $6m than he is on an 8 year deal at $8m.
- spatso

This is a very simplistic interpretation. Yes, of course you can trade Tkachuk while he's under either a 3yr/4yr contract, but a team facing UFA status is at a significant disadvantage in trade negotiations. That means you'll get less trade value for Tkachuk than you should, because other GM know you're on the clock with an expiring asset. Not to mention the PR risk of losing Tkachuk for absolutely nothing in the 4yr year, when you're trying to make a playoff run. And while a contract extension would still be possible at that point, if you think it's hard to negotiate with the Tkachuk's as an RFA, just wait until you hand them the leverage of walking out as a UFA. In practice, a 4yr deal means Tkachuk won't be with the Senators past 2023/24, and likely wouldn't even get full value in trade.

That's precisely why a 3yr bridge deal would be so much better for the Senators than being forced into matching a 4yr RFA offer sheet. The extra year of RFA status gives the team a lot more control in terms of options (including any team that might trade for him, if it goes that route), including a chance to negotiate exclusively with him long-term where you could use the years >30 as a way to moderate the AAV (i.e. the Tampa Bay model). Plus, in Tkachuk's case, a 3yr bridge deal buys time to prove that the team is serious about trying to win, and willing to put it's money where its mouth is... far more so than they're doing in 2021/22.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Sep 28 @ 1:40 PM ET
This is a very simplistic interpretation. Yes, of course you can trade Tkachuk while he's under either a 3yr/4yr contract, but a team facing UFA status is at a significant disadvantage in trade negotiations. That means you'll get less trade value for Tkachuk than you should, because other GM know you're on the clock with an expiring asset. Not to mention the PR risk of losing Tkachuk for absolutely nothing in the 4yr year, when you're trying to make a playoff run. And while a contract extension would still be possible at that point, if you think it's hard to negotiate with the Tkachuk's as an RFA, just wait until you hand them the leverage of walking out as a UFA. In practice, a 4yr deal means Tkachuk won't be with the Senators past 2023/24, and likely wouldn't even get full value in trade.

That's precisely why a 3yr bridge deal would be so much better for the Senators than being forced into matching a 4yr RFA offer sheet. The extra year of RFA status gives the team a lot more control in terms of options (including any team that might trade for him, if it goes that route), including a chance to negotiate exclusively with him long-term where you could use the years >30 as a way to moderate the AAV (i.e. the Tampa Bay model). Plus, in Tkachuk's case, a 3yr bridge deal buys time to prove that the team is serious about trying to win, and willing to put it's money where its mouth is... far more so than they're doing in 2021/22.

- khawk


I agree that 3 year is a far superior option to a 4 year deal. But a four year deal is workable. The landscape is changing. Big contracts are going to RFAs. There's less money for UFAs and all teams need to adapt. Teams need to become ruthless in managing their assets. Moving Tkachuk after 2 or 3 years would bring a full return.

It does not matter about the reason. If Tkachuk is not going to be part of the Sens long term future, Sens need to cash in and deal him for the best return possible.

Columbus absolutely hosed Chicago on the Jones trade. Blue Jackets simply acted in their own best interest and took all the emotion out of the discussion. Sens need to do the same. Brady may be popular with fans. I would be open to the idea of dealing him in a 3 way with the Rangers and Sabres.
SensFan25
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 08.24.2006

Sep 28 @ 2:06 PM ET
Forbes Magazine with a focus on financial and business interests also comments on the issue of NHL escrow and how it impacts the Matthews contract.

"The NHL’s top-earning player for the 2020-21 season is Auston Matthews. The Toronto Maple Leafs center was scheduled to make $15.9 million in playing salary and bonus but will instead earn $13 million net of escrow and including deferrals (a bulk of the escrow payment will be deducted from his July 2021 bonus)."

- spatso

Interesting. Thanks.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Sep 28 @ 3:48 PM ET
It does not matter about the reason. If Tkachuk is not going to be part of the Sens long term future, Sens need to cash in and deal him for the best return possible.
- spatso

That I agree with, and it extends to literally any player. The other thing I was kind of pondering was at what point does the Tkachuk's behavior amount to some kind of formal tampering? Keith Tkachuk is the Director of Player Recruitment for another NHL hockey team, and Matthew just went out of his way in the media to talk about how much of a family affair their contract negotiations were. If the Blues were to attempt an RFA offer sheet to Brady, I don't think it would be too hard to substantiate a formal accusation.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Sep 28 @ 4:21 PM ET
Just finishing work, great discussion guys!

The Johnson comment saying a Brady within a week, I spoke with a long time scout last night out on the west coast and he said, what I said in my piece a few days ago about getting Brady into camp by the 1st. He said former and current players will all tell you, that more than ever the way the league is, you need 2 weeks to feel ready for the season. Even then he said, some players need more. We are Sept. 28th today, Brady should be here by Friday if they want the start they want in my eyes. Take advantage of the Habs having no Weber, Hoffman or Price, etc....some teams will get out of the gates slow. Bank points early in the season!!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Sep 28 @ 7:26 PM ET
That I agree with, and it extends to literally any player. The other thing I was kind of pondering was at what point does the Tkachuk's behavior amount to some kind of formal tampering? Keith Tkachuk is the Director of Player Recruitment for another NHL hockey team, and Matthew just went out of his way in the media to talk about how much of a family affair their contract negotiations were. If the Blues were to attempt an RFA offer sheet to Brady, I don't think it would be too hard to substantiate a formal accusation.
- khawk


Very true!!!
HoweHatrick
Joined: 01.02.2014

Sep 28 @ 7:50 PM ET
If the Sens sign Ennis they will be at the cap floor. If BT isn't signed by the start of the season I expect Ennis to get a contract just to hit the floor.
SENS-sational
Ottawa Senators
Location: vancouver, BC
Joined: 02.27.2011

Sep 28 @ 8:32 PM ET
If sens needed to trade BT I would only trade with NYR. Definitely try to trade for lafreniere and strome. What package would u like to see with nyr?
Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Sep 28 @ 8:46 PM ET
If sens needed to trade BT I would only trade with NYR. Definitely try to trade for lafreniere and strome. What package would u like to see with nyr?
- SENS-sational


OTT does not need a mediocre 3C they would not want Strome, and being 28, he is too old for OTTs window
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Sep 28 @ 9:10 PM ET
If sens needed to trade BT I would only trade with NYR. Definitely try to trade for lafreniere and strome. What package would u like to see with nyr?
- SENS-sational

I'd take Lafreniere and Chytil. Might have to add something like a bottom six guy or a B prospect.

Tkachuk would take the Rangers to the next level immediately. Lafreniere and Chytil would not have the same impact on Ottawa for a few years if ever.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Sep 28 @ 9:47 PM ET
I will have a quick game day blog up later tonight and a post game blog up after the game, just like the first pre-season game. I will do that all season long!
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