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Forums :: Blog World :: Kevin Francis: Brady Tkachuk/Logan Brown and the Sens rookie game
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Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Sep 22 @ 8:57 AM ET
So Petterson, Q. Hughes and Brady are training together awaiting completion of their negotiations. Could this get ugly? Are player agents trying to establish a contract base for elite players coming off their entry level deals?

Owners should have no problem with the standard set by the McDavid contract. Eichel is not unreasonable given the numbers he has produced. The Leafs' deal with Matthews seems highly problematic for many owners. The Marner contract is a nightmare.

Minnesota put themselves into cap hell by signing Kaprisov at $45m. (5 years @ $9m). No bonus money. Not an unrealistic bench mark for what is happening. Further evidence that salaries for players age 28-29 (and above) must continue to come down in direct proportion to the increases being paid on these post entry level deals. So, there is a better than even money chance that Kaprisov will have to settle for less money after the 5 year deal he signed yesterday.

Remember.

Stanley Cup winners tend to be veteran teams. A smart GM might want to think about making some strategic moves. Cap will be staying down for at least another 3 years. Maybe you need to choose the short term deal, continue to conserve cap space and get ready to sign some veteran talent when most of the teams have fully exhausted their cap runway.

- spatso


I wonder how Brady trains with these guys. Do any of his intangibles come into play and if not how does he match up skill wise? It would be really interesting to watch them training together.

It might put into perspective just where Brady will fit on this Sens team two years from now.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Sep 22 @ 8:57 AM ET
Zibanejad had the same problem in Ottawa until they traded him. All he needed was a change of scenery.
- granpa


The Zibanejad trade was criminally bad on the part of the Sens.

But you misrepresent the facts. Zibanejad's production actually fell off in the first year after he was traded to the Rangers. After that first year, his production tracked upwards and was consistent with his age and overall development.

Not sure there is any possible model that would have you using Zibanejad as a benchmark in measuring or projecting Logan Brown's value.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Sep 22 @ 9:04 AM ET
I wonder how Brady trains with these guys. Do any of his intangibles come into play and if not how does he match up skill wise? It would be really interesting to watch them training together.
- Whatisavailable


Other than for general fitness, these guys don't match up very well with Brady for training purposes. There will be no banging and hacking with this group until they have contracts.

Convinced Sens are much better off doing a 2 or 3 year deal. Even a 1 year deal works for me.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Sep 22 @ 9:16 AM ET
Elliott Friedman

5. "So what are we looking at? This is what I can piece together. In Ottawa, they’ve talked long-term with Tkachuk and we’ll see if short-term is necessary to get it done. I’m not sure they are far apart in actual dollars, but structure, with the Senators not being a team that gives much in bonuses. I’m also wondering if another skirmish is over no-trade or no-move protection at the end of a long-term deal."

Melnyk will never get tied into a situation again where a player controls the trade market as what happened with Dany Heatley. Probably the Sens won that trade but Melnyk was convinced that Heatley ripped him off for the up front bonus money.

I think the Sens (and, all teams) want to keep a window where they can trade a player at the end of year 3 (or one year before they become a UFA).
Octavarium
New York Islanders
Joined: 01.03.2007

Sep 22 @ 9:18 AM ET
if that's the case it's gonna cost him more money.
No NMC or NT or bonus structure for 8 years?

Fine says agent....that'll be 9 million then instead of 8.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Sep 22 @ 9:38 AM ET
if that's the case it's gonna cost him more money.
No NMC or NT or bonus structure for 8 years?

Fine says agent....that'll be 9 million then instead of 8.

- Octavarium


I think you are right and it is a two sided risk (for both player and team).

3 years makes so much more sense to me than any other option.

After three years you do a new deal or trade the player to a place willing to give him a long term deal.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Sep 22 @ 9:50 AM ET
On the Logan Brown situation, I believe we are going to have a conclusion to this soap opera. Let's for a moment, assume that Logan Brown fails to make the team out of training camp. So, he is put on waivers with a very good chance he goes unclaimed.
Where does he go from there? We will know there is no future for him with the Ottawa Senators.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Sep 22 @ 10:14 AM ET
Zibanejad had the same problem in Ottawa until they traded him. All he needed was a change of scenery.
- granpa

No he didn't. Zibanejad had 250GP, 50G, and 150Pts by the time he was 23. Brown hasn't even won a roster spot in training camp. The team doubted Zibanejad's high-end potential, not his basic work ethic or NHL viability.
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Sep 22 @ 10:18 AM ET
Right, but nobody is actually questioning whether Brown has excellent offensive vision, or that he has very soft hands when it comes to puck distribution. Those are among his biggest strengths. But this isn't video game hockey, and in reality you need other skills beyond that to be successful and rewarded with opportunity. And it's not at all clear that Brown has established that he has NHL-level competency in those areas. So the ball is 100% in his court to go out there in training camp, show that he's developed beyond the basic skills that got him drafted in the first round 5 years ago, and prove that he's ready to be a regular NHL player.
- khawk

1000% agree with this post. Couldn't have said it better myself.

Logan Brown's passing vision are great but what has he done otherwise? He has 0 even strength NHL goals since being drafted 5 years ago
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Sep 22 @ 1:06 PM ET
Rasmus Dahlin signs with Buffalo for $6.0M AAV x 3yr.
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/rasmus-dahlin

- $5.0M-$5.8M-$7.2M salary escalation
- $2.0M signing bonus in first year, rest is all salary

This is a pretty strong comparable deal for Tkachuk, if it winds up being a 3yr bridge deal. That said, if the Tkachuk camp is really pushing for a ~33% signing bonus structure like Matthew's deal, it could potentially wind up looking something like:

Signing Bonus: $4.0M-$2.0M-$0.0M
Regular Salary: $1.0M-$3.8M-$7.2M
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Sep 22 @ 1:23 PM ET
Also, the Senators' formal training camp roster has been announced...
https://pbs.twimg.com/med...i?format=jpg&name=900x900

Brady Tkachuk isn't on the list, so it's pretty clear that he's being traded (E3)
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Sep 22 @ 2:50 PM ET
Rasmus Dahlin signs with Buffalo for $6.0M AAV x 3yr.
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/rasmus-dahlin

- $5.0M-$5.8M-$7.2M salary escalation
- $2.0M signing bonus in first year, rest is all salary

This is a pretty strong comparable deal for Tkachuk, if it winds up being a 3yr bridge deal. That said, if the Tkachuk camp is really pushing for a ~33% signing bonus structure like Matthew's deal, it could potentially wind up looking something like:

Signing Bonus: $4.0M-$2.0M-$0.0M
Regular Salary: $1.0M-$3.8M-$7.2M

- khawk


The signing bonus yet again is the issue, it wont happen sadly!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Sep 22 @ 2:51 PM ET
New blog up!
PavohnDatsvares
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.03.2016

Sep 22 @ 4:44 PM ET
Zibanejad had the same problem in Ottawa until they traded him. All he needed was a change of scenery.
- granpa


Mika’s back to back 20 goal seasons before leaving Ottawa aren’t in any way shape or form comparable to Logan Brown’s situation. Once again, you are completely talking out of your butt, and blatantly avoiding facts.

Logan Brown has proven literally nothing in his FIVE years since being drafted. Zibanejad was a fairly accomplished NHLer at the time of his trade.
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