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Forums :: Blog World :: Theo Fox: Murphy's Law
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Q-stache
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 11.20.2015

Sep 1 @ 2:55 PM ET
Imagine responding to the same post three times to pat yourself on the back. I can't. I'm too busy living my wonderful life!

I like the signing. Murphy is obviously well liked by teammates, coaches and the FO. This team has had (and continues to have) so much turnover on the blue line that it's hard to believe things could be set for the foreseeable future. Having vets like Jones, McCabe and Murphy lock down will hopefully allow the likes of Mitchell and Kalynuk to make bigger strides.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Sep 1 @ 2:59 PM ET
All your answers couldda been "depends on this season" what a great job to follow through with their strengths and what needsta be done for them to stay insteada the lazy ass "not likely rerained" and being a conmercial for adult diapers. Lazy writing is so (frank)ing annoying. Why sign up for the work then
- VonDouche

If you have time, I encourage you to read other blogs I've written. But if not, you do what you will with your free time.

I also write for HockeyBuzz because for my passion for the team and engaging in conversation with fellow fans. Even if I wasn't the Blackhawks writer, I'd still be on the message boards everyday to talk hockey.

Like most writers on HockeyBuzz, I have a day job that's not in hockey or even in sports. Yet, I support all sports writers on other sites and for news sources who do journalism as a career, especially young writers who are starting out and finding their footing.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Sep 1 @ 3:05 PM ET
Of the 17 contracts coming due that you mentioned in the blog, you show only 3 that would be “likely resigned”. I know that’s not all of the prospects on the roster, and not all of the 17 are strictly speaking really prospects any more, but this doesn’t say much for the drafting and development program, does it?

You also asked the question “who are the vets paving the way for” - at 28, 28, and 27, and each signed for at least the next four years, they aren’t pavers - the are the future.

And, as Powers pointed out in The Athletic, at $17.9 million for the next four seasons (less for the coming season), even with Jones $9 million, this is a reasonably priced trio, compared with other teams - a quick CapFriendly perusal shows them to be probably at about the 1/3 level of cap hits for top-3 blue liners.

If they’re the right guys….

- StLBravesFan

Good points and perspectives. The Hawks are quite forunate that their veteran leaders are still younger than 30 so they too are the future while also leading the way for the younger set.

I also like the angle you brought up about their low cost relative to other teams' top 3 defensemen. Doesn't take away the sting of Jones' contract but when you zoom out, it's not all that bad when #2 and #3 together make less than him.

But like you said, all 3 of Jones, Murphy, and McCabe need to prove that they are worthy of the Big 3 moniker.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Sep 1 @ 3:07 PM ET
Also Theo dcat extension coming soon and if Dach has a breakout season which imo he will i don't see how hawks can fit kubalik long term. Also do believe strome will be traded before training camp starts just don't see a fit with him on this team. Ottawa Columbus montreal and buffalo make the most sense for him to traded to.
- Scott1977

For this blog, I was only focusing on players and prospects coming into the final year of their current contracts, particularly Kubalik. I didn't want to look at every single contract. Perhaps another blog for another day.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Sep 1 @ 3:13 PM ET
how about Connely and Strome for Drouin? he announced he is coming back. Strome is 3 AAV Connelly is 3.5 , Drouin is 5.5 @ years) so basically a push if connely is buried in the AHL. if Teows is healthy and strome is here we have 12 guys that will make the opening day because they would have to pass thru waivers. that does not inlcude carpenter or connely (who would not get claimed or dont care) also that would not include kurashev, reichel, hardman,

Drouin also is more of a natural wing. Strome is more of a natural center.

- kmw4631

I may be in the minority with this but I wouldn't be so quick to see Connolly as washed up. He's 29, not 35.

Sure, he will never be a top 6 forward but he still has a very good shot and is capable of being a secondary scorer in the 10-15 range (15+ if he's in the groove) while providing size on the forecheck and not being a slouch defensively.

He could be a valuable asset on the 4th line and able to play 3rd line if things go right for him and surrounded by complementary linemates.

That isn't to say that I wouldn't trade him if the right deal came along. But he's not someone I would bury in Rockford either.
35Tony0
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Springfield, IL
Joined: 05.10.2015

Sep 1 @ 3:14 PM ET
Good points and perspectives. The Hawks are quite forunate that their veteran leaders are still younger than 30 so they too are the future while also leading the way for the younger set.

I also like the angle you brought up about their low cost relative to other teams' top 3 defensemen. Doesn't take away the sting of Jones' contract but when you zoom out, it's not all that bad when #2 and #3 together make less than him.

But like you said, all 3 of Jones, Murphy, and McCabe need to prove that they are worthy of the Big 3 moniker.

- Theo Fox

Responding just to repost Theo's response!
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Sep 1 @ 3:31 PM ET
For this blog, I was only focusing on players and prospects coming into the final year of their current contracts, particularly Kubalik. I didn't want to look at every single contract. Perhaps another blog for another day.
- Theo Fox

Just looking forward and whether or not hawks can or cannot afford Kubalik. I hope he stays but if he has another 25 30 goal season and say 50 points season have to think he be asking for 6 to 7 million per year and at least 4 years in term. Time will tell but imo opinion i think hawks won't be able to retain him.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Sep 1 @ 3:32 PM ET
Might want to look at CapFriendly for next season. Hawks only have 22M to sign 11 players which includes 2 goalies. Gonna be tough to keep Kubalik. Return to cap hell and without any success to mitigate it.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Sep 1 @ 3:35 PM ET
I may be in the minority with this but I wouldn't be so quick to see Connolly as washed up. He's 29, not 35.

Sure, he will never be a top 6 forward but he still has a very good shot and is capable of being a secondary scorer in the 10-15 range (15+ if he's in the groove) while providing size on the forecheck and not being a slouch defensively.

He could be a valuable asset on the 4th line and able to play 3rd line if things go right for him and surrounded by complementary linemates.

That isn't to say that I wouldn't trade him if the right deal came along. But he's not someone I would bury in Rockford either.

- Theo Fox

He has size but he is too slow to get in on the forecheck. He also isn't going to get much PP time, if any. He won't sniff anything close to 15 goals. Plus, they need his cap space going into the next season. The sooner he is gone, the better.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Sep 1 @ 3:37 PM ET
Drouin is not being traded for garbage. Drouin has shown ability, just not enought in results. I realize some young guys need a wake up call learned the hard way. Drouin knows he can put up points but his overall game has to be good enough. His attitude has been questioned in the past, but I say he is especially hungry to prove his ware is as a point producing, exciting player. When does Drouin, A TOP CHOICE, become a player to be in the right position to "ripen." Actually the Kotkeiniemi situation ought to "play" to his favor no matter where these two enters skate next season

Meanwhile, Strome probably cannot stick as #2 center for anyone. Connelly is a veteran maybe not fading but earns too much coin and nowadays he is pedestrian average skater. In essence both.represent garbage for a player whom remains a top skill point producing able just a bit of an enigma to get results out of Drouin

As fir the salary cap money angle, I prefer to find a way to play (keep) Drouin

- jhawk59

Droouin has no value as of rn. Plus, who wants a guy who can't handle pressure anyway.
Abadseed
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Arlington hts, IL
Joined: 01.20.2014

Sep 1 @ 3:38 PM ET
Drouin is not being traded for garbage. Drouin has shown ability, just not enought in results. I realize some young guys need a wake up call learned the hard way. Drouin knows he can put up points but his overall game has to be good enough. His attitude has been questioned in the past, but I say he is especially hungry to prove his ware is as a point producing, exciting player. When does Drouin, A TOP CHOICE, become a player to be in the right position to "ripen." QAActually the Kotkeiniemi situation ought to "play" to his favor no matter where these two enters skate next season

Meanwhile, Strome probably cannot stick as #2 center for anyone. Connelly is a veteran maybe not fading but earns too much coin and nowadays he is pedestrian average skater. In essence both.represent garbage for a player whom remains a top skill point producing able just a bit of an enigma to get results out of Drouin

As fir the salary cap money angle, I prefer to find a way to play (keep) Drouin

- jhawk59


Strome was picked third overall so there’s that

Your TOP CHOICE has 232 point scored in 393 games while Strome has 124 points in 204

Ogilthorpe2
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 37,000 FT
Joined: 07.09.2009

Sep 1 @ 3:39 PM ET
Droouin has no value as of rn. Plus, who wants a guy who can't handle pressure anyway.
- Elbows15

Toronto?
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Sep 1 @ 3:40 PM ET
Toronto?
- Ogilthorpe2

That’s a whole bunch of guys
powerenforcer
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wheeling, IL
Joined: 09.24.2009

Sep 1 @ 3:42 PM ET
Might want to look at CapFriendly for next season. Hawks only have 22M to sign 11 players which includes 2 goalies. Gonna be tough to keep Kubalik. Return to cap hell and without any success to mitigate it.
- Elbows15



Won't the new TV deal hit then? Cap will go way up!
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Sep 1 @ 3:44 PM ET
Won't the new TV deal hit then? Cap will go way up!
- powerenforcer

No, it won't be going way up for a few years. Players have to pay back escrow before it goes up dramatically. At most, it might go up 1M next season.
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Sep 1 @ 3:44 PM ET
Might want to look at CapFriendly for next season. Hawks only have 22M to sign 11 players which includes 2 goalies. Gonna be tough to keep Kubalik. Return to cap hell and without any success to mitigate it.
- Elbows15


Kubalik 5M

One of Beaudin/Mitchell to replace deHaan 1M

Reichel, Hardman, Entwistle 1M each

Two goalies total of 6M tops assuming Fleury moves on. Maybe 4M for Lankinen and 2M for a cheap vet or 1M for the young Swede.

Don't think Dach will break the bank maybe a 3M bridge.

That leaves 3 players and 4M.

Edit 5M available if the cap goes up 1M which I read.
Ogilthorpe2
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 37,000 FT
Joined: 07.09.2009

Sep 1 @ 3:45 PM ET
Strome was picked third overall so there’s that

Your TOP CHOICE has 232 point scored in 393 games while Strome has 124 points in 204

- Abadseed

Both @ .6 ppg

Neither one proving worthy of his draft position.

Pass on both.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Sep 1 @ 3:52 PM ET
Kubalik 5M

One of Beaudin/Mitchell to replace deHaan 1M

Reichel, Hardman, Entwistle 1M each

Two goalies total of 6M tops assuming Fleury moves on. Maybe 4M for Lankinen and 2M for a cheap vet or 1M for the young Swede.

Don't think Dach will break the bank maybe a 3M bridge.

That leaves 3 players and 4M.

Edit 5M available if the cap goes up 1M which I read.

- boilermaker100


You just letting Gaudette, Nylander and Kalynuk walk? Maybe they suck and you do but what if all 3 have good seasons? What then?

mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Sep 1 @ 3:54 PM ET
Might want to look at CapFriendly for next season. Hawks only have 22M to sign 11 players which includes 2 goalies. Gonna be tough to keep Kubalik. Return to cap hell and without any success to mitigate it.
- Elbows15


Well, that's not the whole story. Strome and de Haan will come off the books. They total $7.5M, and will likely be replaced by kids. So we can add $5M to the pile. The rest are RFA's who aren't in line for big money. Manageable.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Sep 1 @ 4:07 PM ET
Well, that's not the whole story. Strome and de Haan will come off the books. They total $7.5M, and will likely be replaced by kids. So we can add $5M to the pile. The rest are RFA's who aren't in line for big money. Manageable.
- mohel

Yes. it is the whole story. There is no coming off the books when you look at CF. The numbers are right there and you can save the mental gymnastics.

The Hawks are at 58M+ in committed salary for next season. Which leaves them ~23M to add 12 players for a 23 man rosters.


Kubalik and Dach are 2 of the RFA. Kalynuk is another.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Sep 1 @ 4:10 PM ET
Well, that's not the whole story. Strome and de Haan will come off the books. They total $7.5M, and will likely be replaced by kids. So we can add $5M to the pile. The rest are RFA's who aren't in line for big money. Manageable.
- mohel

He was only looking at the 12 players already signed for 2022-23 - at about $59 million, leaving 11 players to be signed with about $22 million in available cap space.

I agree.

In my post about the 3 defensemen...I was only looking at those 3 contracts, not the rest of the team. Jones, McCabe, and Murphy as a trio are a reasonable financial package, I think.

What makes the situation tough is they have $32 million tied up in four forwards (Kane, Toews, Adb, and Johnson) plus having to sign Kubalik and (perhaps to a big contract) Dach.
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Sep 1 @ 4:18 PM ET
You just letting Gaudette, Nylander and Kalynuk walk? Maybe they suck and you do but what if all 3 have good seasons? What then?
- Elbows15


Yeah they would be in the mix too along with Kurashev. Kalynuk a keeper IMO. If Gaudette and Nylander have break out years, yes the decision would be to retain both of them or Kubalik. Hard to predict who's staying or going until we see how these guys play this season.
Q-stache
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 11.20.2015

Sep 1 @ 4:26 PM ET
Parayko signs 8x6.5m with Blues. Last year aside, this is a GREAT deal.
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Sep 1 @ 4:28 PM ET
Kubalik 5M

One of Beaudin/Mitchell to replace deHaan 1M

Reichel, Hardman, Entwistle 1M each

Two goalies total of 6M tops assuming Fleury moves on. Maybe 4M for Lankinen and 2M for a cheap vet or 1M for the young Swede.

Don't think Dach will break the bank maybe a 3M bridge.

That leaves 3 players and 4M.

Edit 5M available if the cap goes up 1M which I read.

- boilermaker100

I doubt Lankinen sees $4M after playing behind MAF this next year.

Something would need to change in the calculus of the personnel no way we suit up basically 6 rookie types.
glennjpawlak22
Joined: 11.26.2013

Sep 1 @ 4:30 PM ET
https://www.nhl.com/news/...training-camp/c-326059940

Toews 'looks great' ahead of Blackhawks training camp
Center skating with teammates, didn't play last season after medical leave of absence
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