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Yes, the fancy stats suggest that he is not nearly as good as he is assumed to be. Here is the problem that I have though:
6.5% of NHL players polled by the NHLPA still believe that he is the best in the league, the fourth most of anybody.
Why is he STILL held in such high regard by his peers (the players that play against him)? The analytics crowd has done a ton of work to try and capture everything that goes into being a good player and how to compare players. And yet, they still - according to this - are grossly detached from what the actual players think in certain cases. Bad players can have good underlying stats (Runblad sticks out like a sore thumb). The analytics crowd can say all they want that their numbers account for everything, but they obviously do not (or at least it is not reflected in the opinions of the actual players). This is NOT to discount the role that these numbers can and should have, but I think (as I always have) that these numbers should be used in context with all other inputs available.
I think we all need to go back to viewing analytics as they should be: A good supplement to evaluation and not the main determinant. - Chunk
To be fair they included a companion article that went over video breakdown analysis so it was pretty comprehensive.
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powerenforcer
Chicago Blackhawks |
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Location: Wheeling, IL Joined: 09.24.2009
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The internet is a place where you can find anything to support your (frank)ed up views.
Just ask PE. - Elbows15
That's not true. Have I ever posted a link to a website to back up my views? Observation and reason is what I use, not someone's fancy stats or social platform.
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Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks |
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Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL Joined: 11.06.2015
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To be fair they included a companion article that went over video breakdown analysis so it was pretty comprehensive. - fattybeef
Sure, but from the article itself:
What do these stats tell us? Doughty is still a very strong breakout passer who doesn’t turn the puck over and prevents opponents from entering the zone at a strong rate. That’s it.
That's it? What would the Hawks pay for a guy that could consistently do these things? Worth $11M on its own? Nope, but still very key defensive play.
The real question is: what the hell happened? In his companion piece to this article, hockey tactician and former Toronto Marlies assistant coach Jack Han addresses that question by breaking down game tape. His eye-test analysis suggests that Doughty is playing disengaged, lazy hockey, picking his moments to really try but otherwise not giving it anywhere near his all. In other words, Doughty is grumpy that his team isn’t good anymore, and he’s apparently determined to be part of the problem.
Doughty has publicly said that he does not want to deal with rebuilding and wants to win. This apparently has a huge impact on his play. For $11M per year, should it? Absolutely not, but it certainly suggests that Doughty has the ability to play up to his contract.
The point I'm making is that analytics almost completely remove the human element from performance. It's part of why I think Keith will have a notable resurgence in EDM being closer to his son. It's also a part of my theory on why Strome struggled so much last year, and why I'm quite bullish on Jones (because everyone hates playing for Torts eventually). |
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paulr
Chicago Blackhawks |
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Location: YYZ Joined: 06.26.2011
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That's not true. Have I ever posted a link to a website to back up my views? Observation and reason is what I use, not someone's fancy stats or social platform. - powerenforcer
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Angotti
Season Ticket Holder Chicago Blackhawks |
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Location: IL Joined: 07.03.2019
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Sure, but from the article itself:
What do these stats tell us? Doughty is still a very strong breakout passer who doesn’t turn the puck over and prevents opponents from entering the zone at a strong rate. That’s it.
That's it? What would the Hawks pay for a guy that could consistently do these things? Worth $11M on its own? Nope, but still very key defensive play.
The real question is: what the hell happened? In his companion piece to this article, hockey tactician and former Toronto Marlies assistant coach Jack Han addresses that question by breaking down game tape. His eye-test analysis suggests that Doughty is playing disengaged, lazy hockey, picking his moments to really try but otherwise not giving it anywhere near his all. In other words, Doughty is grumpy that his team isn’t good anymore, and he’s apparently determined to be part of the problem.
Doughty has publicly said that he does not want to deal with rebuilding and wants to win. This apparently has a huge impact on his play. For $11M per year, should it? Absolutely not, but it certainly suggests that Doughty has the ability to play up to his contract.
The point I'm making is that analytics almost completely remove the human element from performance. It's part of why I think Keith will have a notable resurgence in EDM being closer to his son. It's also a part of my theory on why Strome struggled so much last year, and why I'm quite bullish on Jones (because everyone hates playing for Torts eventually). - Chunk
Why are you bringing the human element into the equation? These guys are robots. Like you, I’ll go by my eye test first, and use analytical stats as a supplement, especially in hockey. |
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paulr
Chicago Blackhawks |
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Location: YYZ Joined: 06.26.2011
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Why are you bringing the human element into the equation? These guys are robots. Like you, I’ll go by my eye test first, and use analytical stats as a supplement, especially in hockey. - Angotti
Analytics are important to GMs, scouts and coaches but the average hockey fan would rather watch a hockey game then dissect a spreadsheet. Analytics don’t factor in so many things that would change the data, courage of a player, the hunger of a player to win, coaching, teammates, injuries, sicknesses etc. It’s for these reasons I’m willing to give Jones time to prove his stats wrong. I still don’t like the trade or his contract because of the potential it will do to the Hawks long term. |
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powerenforcer
Chicago Blackhawks |
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Location: Wheeling, IL Joined: 09.24.2009
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Angotti
Season Ticket Holder Chicago Blackhawks |
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Location: IL Joined: 07.03.2019
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Analytics are important to GMs, scouts and coaches but the average hockey fan would rather watch a hockey game then dissect a spreadsheet. Analytics don’t factor in so many things that would change the data, courage of a player, the hunger of a player to win, coaching, teammates, injuries, sicknesses etc. It’s for these reasons I’m willing to give Jones time to prove his stats wrong. I still don’t like the trade or his contract because of the potential it will do to the Hawks long term. - paulr
Exactly. If analytics are so important to GM’s, why did Stan trade for Seth Jones? And I know that statement will get hammered here, but in all reality Stan is not dumb. I like you also believe that the contract is for too much money and term, we are in agreement there. Stan gave up a good young defenseman with questionable health and a #1 for arguably(it’s been argued on this board for two weeks) a #1 Dman. The swap of #1’s could also be argued, as there was limited visibility to these players this past year due to Covid. In my opinion Seth Jones is the best defenseman that the Hawks have had in four to five years, and you have to give to receive. If the Hawks go south they still have an opportunity at a top pick, as the #1 they gave up is lottery protected. I’m willing to wait and see how this turns out. JMHO |
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paulr
Chicago Blackhawks |
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Location: YYZ Joined: 06.26.2011
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Try it sometime! - powerenforcer
I’ll try to do that. |
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gazza53
Chicago Blackhawks |
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Location: IL Joined: 09.15.2017
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Exactly. If analytics are so important to GM’s, why did Stan trade for Seth Jones? And I know that statement will get hammered here, but in all reality Stan is not dumb. I like you also believe that the contract is for too much money and term, we are in agreement there. Stan gave up a good young defenseman with questionable health and a #1 for arguably(it’s been argued on this board for two weeks) a #1 Dman. The swap of #1’s could also be argued, as there was limited visibility to these players this past year due to Covid. In my opinion Seth Jones is the best defenseman that the Hawks have had in four to five years, and you have to give to receive. If the Hawks go south they still have an opportunity at a top pick, as the #1 they gave up is lottery protected. I’m willing to wait and see how this turns out. JMHO - Angotti
It's only lottery protected for top two picks, so if Hawks suck this year and come in 27th we're dang outta of luck.
Seth Jones being the best D-man on the Hawks in like 4-5 years isn't that high a bar. |
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Ogilthorpe2
Season Ticket Holder Chicago Blackhawks |
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Location: 37,000 FT Joined: 07.09.2009
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https://twitter.com/Dave_Stubbs/status/1425869544720064519?s=01
Nice story - BetweenTheDots
The increasingly rare good Twitter post |
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Sadly the majority of these deaths happen in the same neighborhoods where thugs takeout other thugs and goes under the radar until a child or some unintended victim dies by accident. Or god forbid someone is killed in a questionable manner by the police then it’s front page news. Until local and state government takes the illegal drugs and conterband and basically forces change nothing will change. People aren’t getting the vaccine just because they want to say no one will force them. The reality is I still percentage of side effects is so small there’s is real reason not too. AS more and more companies force there employees to take it or quit and insurance companies as I’ve read start charging people for the full hospital stays for those who choose not to take the shots will be screwed. Those here who think it’s an outrage to be forced to carry a card as proof really? I think it’s no difference then a drivers license or a passport.
I look forward to going to a hawks game here soon and hopefully in Vegas when they travel there. I believe they will be better this year. BUt it might not enough to make the playoffs - Abadseed
Your quote: “the side effects of the vaccine is so small there’s no reason not too.”
If you are getting your information from your local TV news about the COVID shot you have been neutralized. I think it would be best to go on the internet and see what your top world medical experts in viruses have to say about the safety of the COVID vaccine.
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Excerpt from an article in the Athletic......
The NHLPA is strongly encouraging its players to get vaccinated ahead of the upcoming season, reports The Athletic's Michael Russo and Katie Strang.
The union warned the players over a lengthy call last week that unvaccinated individuals may face stiff penalties if they contract COVID-19 during the 2021-22 campaign, cautioning that teams could have the power to withhold paychecks while an unvaccinated player is out due to the virus, or if he can't play because of local regulations.
Another issue discussed during the call was whether unvaccinated players would be allowed to enter Canada for games. The NHLPA said it's unlikely they'd receive an exemption to enter the country and would need to stay at home with their salaries withheld.
NHL deputy commissioner Billy Daly said that over 85% of players in the league are fully vaccinated. In comparison, 99% of WNBA players are vaccinated, while the NFL and NBA are at 90%.
The NHL sent a memo to all teams on Friday stating that anyone who works for a club and personally interacts with players must be fully vaccinated. |
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Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks |
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Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL Joined: 11.06.2015
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Excerpt from an article in the Athletic......
The NHLPA is strongly encouraging its players to get vaccinated ahead of the upcoming season, reports The Athletic's Michael Russo and Katie Strang.
The union warned the players over a lengthy call last week that unvaccinated individuals may face stiff penalties if they contract COVID-19 during the 2021-22 campaign, cautioning that teams could have the power to withhold paychecks while an unvaccinated player is out due to the virus, or if he can't play because of local regulations.
Another issue discussed during the call was whether unvaccinated players would be allowed to enter Canada for games. The NHLPA said it's unlikely they'd receive an exemption to enter the country and would need to stay at home with their salaries withheld.
NHL deputy commissioner Billy Daly said that over 85% of players in the league are fully vaccinated. In comparison, 99% of WNBA players are vaccinated, while the NFL and NBA are at 90%.
The NHL sent a memo to all teams on Friday stating that anyone who works for a club and personally interacts with players must be fully vaccinated. - boilermaker100
What happens if a vaccinated player contracts the virus? |
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What happens if a vaccinated player contracts the virus? - Chunk
Probably the same thing the Yankees did, out for 7 days, i think |
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tvetter
Chicago Blackhawks |
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Location: Burkesville, KY Joined: 12.16.2015
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What happens if a vaccinated player contracts the virus? - Chunk
Most likely, he's paid to stay home for 2 weeks.
I'm pro-COVID vaccine. I've been fully vaccinated since early February, and have given or supervised close to 1000 shots. That said, I am not in favor of making it mandatory. I believe that mandatory masks and vaccine requirements may do more harm than good. At least in the US, it seems that there are a lot of people who won't do something only because they are told they must comply. |
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Most likely, he's paid to stay home for 2 weeks.
I'm pro-COVID vaccine. I've been fully vaccinated since early February, and have given or supervised close to 1000 shots. That said, I am not in favor of making it mandatory. I believe that mandatory masks and vaccine requirements may do more harm than good. At least in the US, it seems that there are a lot of people who won't do something only because they are told they must comply. - tvetter
Rizzo is out for 10 days, so i imagine it'll be the same for hockey |
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Angotti
Season Ticket Holder Chicago Blackhawks |
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Location: IL Joined: 07.03.2019
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It's only lottery protected for top two picks, so if Hawks suck this year and come in 27th we're dang outta of luck.
Seth Jones being the best D-man on the Hawks in like 4-5 years isn't that high a bar. - gazza53
Can’t disagree with the bolded. Looking at the Hawks on paper, I don’t believe that they will be a bottom ten team, so basically Boqvist and that #1 for arguably a #1 defenseman. If indeed Jones is a #1, I’d do that trade any day of the week, time will tell. |
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Most likely, he's paid to stay home for 2 weeks.
I'm pro-COVID vaccine. I've been fully vaccinated since early February, and have given or supervised close to 1000 shots. That said, I am not in favor of making it mandatory. I believe that mandatory masks and vaccine requirements may do more harm than good. At least in the US, it seems that there are a lot of people who won't do something only because they are told they must comply. - tvetter
Maybe a lot of people won’t take the shot because they believe it is their constitutional right to decide if an experimental drug that has not gone through rigorous testing for years and not approved by the FDA is safe to take. Not everybody is sheep! |
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Maybe “they” can just put the vaccine into the next batch of chemtrails “they” spray on us all, and be done with it. - Ogilthorpe2
Just admit it Ogi. You pilots have an on/off switch for "chemtrails" on your instrument panel. |
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Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks |
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Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL Joined: 08.04.2013
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Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks |
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Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL Joined: 08.04.2013
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I love Vapor Trails. First concert I got to go to. - I Am The Breadman
Wait...Are you a Hip fan? |
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Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks |
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Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL Joined: 08.04.2013
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Exactly. If analytics are so important to GM’s, why did Stan trade for Seth Jones? And I know that statement will get hammered here, but in all reality Stan is not dumb. I like you also believe that the contract is for too much money and term, we are in agreement there. Stan gave up a good young defenseman with questionable health and a #1 for arguably(it’s been argued on this board for two weeks) a #1 Dman. The swap of #1’s could also be argued, as there was limited visibility to these players this past year due to Covid. In my opinion Seth Jones is the best defenseman that the Hawks have had in four to five years, and you have to give to receive. If the Hawks go south they still have an opportunity at a top pick, as the #1 they gave up is lottery protected. I’m willing to wait and see how this turns out. JMHO - Angotti
I mean, he traded for Rundblad and the corpse of Kimmo. Signed Manning. Traded Kempny and Ruutta. Signed or traded for Cody Franson. I can't recall and have tried to block him from memory.
So, there is some evidence that Bowman and his pro scouts may not be the best judge of D-men. |
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Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks |
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Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL Joined: 08.04.2013
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Maybe a lot of people won’t take the shot because they believe it is their constitutional right to decide if an experimental drug that has not gone through rigorous testing for years and not approved by the FDA is safe to take. Not everybody is sheep! - spanky
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