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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Free Agency Day 1: Flyers recap and analysis
Author Message
Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jul 29 @ 1:52 PM ET
Whos saying that he isnt experiencing them all the time? Migraines vary in terms of severity and symptoms. When he missed time they could have just been a lot more severe than usual. Maybe something aggravated his condition
- xShoot4WarAmpsx

Nopa himself said he didn’t have migraine issue.

Bill stated there was no reports of concerns involving migraines leading up to draft for hexy to take into consideration
mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jul 29 @ 1:53 PM ET
Flyers at 45 contracts. Leaves a spot open for another depth forward and an AHL goalie by my count.
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 29 @ 1:55 PM ET
Flyers at 45 contracts. Leaves a spot open for another depth forward and an AHL goalie by my count.
- mochoson

another cagey vet, this time for defense.
mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jul 29 @ 2:01 PM ET
another cagey vet, this time for defense.
- hello it's me 2050


Unless Flyers plan on keeping 8D men and want to sign someone to be ready over Morin, I think the D is set.

Provorov-Ellis
Sanheim-Ristolainen
Yandle-Braun
-Morin

York-Clendening
Seeler-Zamula
Hogberg-Wylie
-Millman, Zech
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 29 @ 2:06 PM ET
Unless Flyers plan on keeping 8D men and want to sign someone to be ready over Morin, I think the D is set.

Provorov-Ellis
Sanheim-Ristolainen
Yandle-Braun
-Morin

York-Clendening
Seeler-Zamula
Hogberg-Wylie
-Millman, Zech

- mochoson


My own belief is they want Morin in the AHL playing. Unless he has a great camp.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 29 @ 2:07 PM ET
Ristolainen is far from a perfect player. But he isn't garbage, either, and (analytics aside) he was a better player at ages 21-24 than Myers has been over of the same time period.
- bmeltzer


Hey Bill, when you say "analytics aside", it suggests that you either 1. Thinking that analytics is a subjective pov rather than data from zillions of actual hockey plays or 2. Thinking that the analytics are not that bad and stem from 'playing on a putrid team' affect.

In general, the good player effect almost always swamps out both the bad-teammates/hard matchup effects when you look at RELATIVE #s. I tried explaining the logic last time and found few takers. So lets look at the evidence.

Look at this data set of all defenders who have played 1600+ minutes in the past 3 years, arranged by relative Corsi.. What jumps out at you?

1. First, there is a very strong correlation between quality of defender and + relative corsi. Even though big names are facing tough match-ups, they are still improving the team average, even when stranded in an island of mediocrity or worse. Ekblad plays without anyone his level in Florida, gets very hard matchups, still + (compare especially to his frequent partner, Stralman). Ditto with Seth Jones, PK Subban, Eric Karlsson, Doughty, Quinn Hughes etc. etc.

Especially note how high Rasmus Dahlin is on the list, playing as a kid, in the same situation that Risto found himself in. Hedman is only 59 on the list, but is ofc still + (even though in his case the quality of other defenders is very high and he draws the hardest matchups. It is because while the others are good, he is even better and that last part swamps the tough-matchups effect.)

2. Look who finished 163 out of 179 and look at the company he keeps.

I tried explaining the logic behind this a few days ago, with very limited success. Maybe the outlier actual data will be more convincing.
backfire
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Lancaster, PA
Joined: 08.07.2018

Jul 29 @ 2:07 PM ET
Good point. But again, what makes you think he’s NHL ready? I thought he played alright in the 3(!) games Ive seen him. If he impresses in camp then I’m sure they will give him a shot.

And that’s kind of the rub here. Most of you are putting the cart before the horse saying he’s not going to get a “shot”. Playing in games is a chance for exposure but a ton more goes into that decision than just, well he’s a first rounder so we have to start him.

- AngryJoe


He does have a body of work to look at outside of 3 NHL games at the end of the year, most notably he captained the USA team that won the World Juniors championship last year. I wonder how many of his talented teammates and opponents won't be forced to prove it in the AHL.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 29 @ 2:08 PM ET
At lower levels if you are athletic you could not have certain skills that will be exposed. Once the level of competition goes up those flaws/ decision making will be.
- Peter Richards


That's often true, but in Myers case, he was undersized going into his junior draft and Rouyn took a chance on him based on his, get this, hockey sense.

Once he stopped growing and got some bodily coordination, he instantly blew up. Would have easily been a 1st-round pick going back into the draft.

No questions whatsoever about his hockey sense until a few months ago.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 29 @ 2:11 PM ET


Look at this data set of all defenders who have played 1600+ minutes in the past 3 years, arranged by relative Corsi.. What jumps out at you?


- PT21



Peeps clicking on that link will need to arrange the data by CF%, 9th column. Just click on header.
mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jul 29 @ 2:16 PM ET
My own belief is they want Morin in the AHL playing. Unless he has a great camp.
- hello it's me 2050


Doesn't really change much. If he doesn't make the team than Seeler probably does.




Richieattack18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Girouxsalem
Joined: 07.13.2010

Jul 29 @ 2:22 PM ET
That’s a dumb take. I agree his medical history is an issue. But in his time when he was healthy, you could see glimpses of his elite vision and his ability to be heavy on the puck. He may never pan out because of his medical stuff, but saying he doesn’t have skill is just plain silly. I’m guessing you love to look at fancy stats and watch games 1 time every few weeks.
- AngryJoe

Do you not watch the games??? He is the worst player in the league
bradster
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.18.2009

Jul 29 @ 2:23 PM ET
He does have a body of work to look at outside of 3 NHL games at the end of the year, most notably he captained the USA team that won the World Juniors championship last year. I wonder how many of his talented teammates and opponents won't be forced to prove it in the AHL.
- backfire


you think jr's is the same as the pros? Plenty of guys were stellar in that tournament that didnt even have more than a blip in the NHL
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jul 29 @ 2:23 PM ET
How does he not have a legit shot? He will come to camp and he will compete for a spot. If he turns heads, the Flyers will easily sit Yandle for him. They are simply not rushing him. Chances are even if he does make the team his play will drop over the course of the season.
- xShoot4WarAmpsx



agree but if it is even or even if York is slightly ahead, Yandle will get the nod
arichardson22
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 06.10.2013

Jul 29 @ 2:25 PM ET
Blues got Saad for a pretty friendly price.
AngryJoe
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.13.2021

Jul 29 @ 2:26 PM ET
Hey Bill, when you say "analytics aside", it suggests that you either 1. Thinking that analytics is a subjective pov rather than data from zillions of actual hockey plays or 2. Thinking that the analytics are not that bad and stem from 'playing on a putrid team' affect.

In general, the good player effect almost always swamps out both the bad-teammates/hard matchup effects when you look at RELATIVE #s. I tried explaining the logic last time and found few takers. So lets look at the evidence.

Look at this data set of all defenders who have played 1600+ minutes in the past 3 years, arranged by relative Corsi.. What jumps out at you?

1. First, there is a very strong correlation between quality of defender and + relative corsi. Even though big names are facing tough match-ups, they are still improving the team average, even when stranded in an island of mediocrity or worse. Ekblad plays without anyone his level in Florida, gets very hard matchups, still + (compare especially to his frequent partner, Stralman). Ditto with Seth Jones, PK Subban, Eric Karlsson, Doughty, Quinn Hughes etc. etc.

Especially note how high Rasmus Dahlin is on the list, playing as a kid, in the same situation that Risto found himself in. Hedman is only 59 on the list, but is ofc still + (even though in his case the quality of other defenders is very high and he draws the hardest matchups. It is because while the others are good, he is even better and that last part swamps the tough-matchups effect.)

2. Look who finished 163 out of 179 and look at the company he keeps.

I tried explaining the logic behind this a few days ago, with very limited success. Maybe the outlier actual data will be more convincing.

- PT21


Groan
AngryJoe
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.13.2021

Jul 29 @ 2:26 PM ET
He does have a body of work to look at outside of 3 NHL games at the end of the year, most notably he captained the USA team that won the World Juniors championship last year. I wonder how many of his talented teammates and opponents won't be forced to prove it in the AHL.
- backfire


Dude he’s going to be playing against MEN now not U20s
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 29 @ 2:27 PM ET
Doesn't really change much. If he doesn't make the team than Seeler probably does.
- mochoson

Maybe. may want a better legit nhl dman in the pressbox.
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 29 @ 2:28 PM ET
Blues got Saad for a pretty friendly price.
- arichardson22

agree nice deal
bradster
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.18.2009

Jul 29 @ 2:34 PM ET
Dude he’s going to be playing against MEN now not U20s
- AngryJoe


Zegras was by far the best in the world jr tourney and he has more more than double AHL games than York
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jul 29 @ 2:41 PM ET
How many good seasons has patrick had?
- bradster

You know what? I’ve seen this a dozen times on this board.

“Trade Brayden Schenn, he’s an Anchor 5 on 5”. He looked pretty good at even strength to me when he won a Cup with the Blues.

“I hate Mark Recchi, he was mean to Bill Barber when he coached us”. How did Barber’s coaching career go because I’ve seen Recchi win more cups after he left than Barber was able to accept NHL head coaching jobs.

“Jeff Carter shoots wide and bangs too many girls. He needs to focus on hockey!” Also goes on to win 2 cups.

Patrick was picked up by a team in three seasons in Existence who took players most of us have never heard of or average players and made their group a contender ever season. They probably make the final this season if Price wasn’t playing like his family’s lives depended on it. Nolan Patrick’s career is currently in his own hands with a fresh start. He could find himself in Europe in a couple seasons or a Stanley Cup Champion because he definitely landed in a better situation currently than in Philly.
bradster
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.18.2009

Jul 29 @ 2:44 PM ET
You know what? I’ve seen this a dozen times on this board.

“Trade Brayden Schenn, he’s an Anchor 5 on 5”. He looked pretty good at even strength to me when he won a Cup with the Blues.

“I hate Mark Recchi, he was mean to Bill Barber when he coached us”. How did Barber’s coaching career go because I’ve seen Recchi win more cups after he left than Barber was able to accept NHL head coaching jobs.

“Jeff Carter shoots wide and bangs too many girls. He needs to focus on hockey!” Also goes on to win 2 cups.

Patrick was picked up by a team in three seasons in Existence who took players most of us have never heard of or average players and made their group a contender ever season. They probably make the final this season if Price wasn’t playing like his family’s lives depended on it. Nolan Patrick’s career is currently in his own hands with a fresh start. He could find himself in Europe in a couple seasons or a Stanley Cup Champion because he definitely landed in a better situation currently than in Philly.

- SuperSchennBros


ummmm,, thanks for answering the question lol
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jul 29 @ 2:46 PM ET
Do you watch games or just the highlights and look at the fancy stats also?
- AngryJoe

Everyone here has played 10 plus seasons in the NHL and have run at least one team as general manager. Trust me, if you can’t play well in Philly, you’ll never be good anywhere else.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jul 29 @ 2:47 PM ET
ummmm,, thanks for answering the question lol
- bradster

30 points isn’t a good season for a rookie?
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 29 @ 2:48 PM ET
Everyone here has played 10 plus seasons in the NHL and have run at least one team as general manager. Trust me, if you can’t play well in Philly, you’ll never be good anywhere else.
- SuperSchennBros

quit your bellyaching.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jul 29 @ 2:48 PM ET
Do you not watch the games??? He is the worst player in the league
- Richieattack18

Yes, so terrible Vegas wanted him. News flash, Nolan Patrick is a more wanted Commodity than Morgan Frost at the moment.
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