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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Free Agency Day 1: Flyers recap and analysis
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jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jul 29 @ 6:01 PM ET
I don't buy your explanation for one second. There's a difference between struggles of inexperience and being labeled as having poor hockey IQ. A poor hockey IQ is not situational. It's something you either have or don't have.
As far as the questions you posed, I agree. Can Ellis hold up. How long will be be a good player. Another question to ask is why did Nashville make the deal? It wasn't because of a cap crunch.

- MJL

Nashville needs to still resign Ekholm and Saros, so that should take a little more than 1/2 their available cap space. Then looking at their team forward group, they need some serious help there, so its possible they will make a few more trades, or reserve cap for next year. Not sure if Ellis will hold up, I certainly hope so for the Flyers sake.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 29 @ 6:03 PM ET
I really hate these types of charts because they never tell the entire story, no matter how many numbers they have on it. Here is the bottom line, Martin Jones actually had a good year last year, and a much better year than ether Carter Hart or Brian Elliott. Here is a comparison of the 3 of them:

5v5 Save% PK Save % PP Save %
Hart .889 .777 .913
Elliott .892 .865 .889
Jones .904 .833 .935

This clearly shows that both Flyers and Sharks were bad PK teams last year, in fact Jones had his worst PK save % since 2014 with the Kings. But if you look at 5 on 5, Jones was better than Elliott and Hart. So this once again demonstrates that overall team defense has the most impact on a goalie's metrics. I conclude that the Flyers will be top 10 in team defense next season, and thus both Hart and Jones will have outstanding numbers!

- jd250


There is nothing impressive or good about a 5v5 SV% of .904. It's mediocre. That being said, I'm not upset about the signing.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 29 @ 6:06 PM ET
Nashville needs to still resign Ekholm and Saros, so that should take a little more than 1/2 their available cap space. Then looking at their team forward group, they need some serious help there, so its possible they will make a few more trades, or reserve cap for next year. Not sure if Ellis will hold up, I certainly hope so for the Flyers sake.
- jd250


You're mixing things. Saros needs to be re-signed for this season along with Fabbro. They have 20M in cap space. Ekholm is for next year in which they also have plenty of cap space. I don't think it had anything to do with available cap space. It most likely has to do with a determination of a combination of decline and injury issues.
Peter Richards
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.24.2019

Jul 29 @ 6:26 PM ET
As MJL has said a million times, nobody questioned his IQ in LHV or his first 100 games here. Quite the opposite actually... his ability to anticipate and break up plays was lauded. His intelligence in choosing when to jump into the play was lauded. The GM gushed about his poise w/ the puck. And all of that was clearly on display in his underlying numbers, which continued to be strong over the course of his short career, even this past season.

Yes, he made some gaffes this season. His development clearly got subsumed by everything going on around him. Flyers chose to go for the known quantity in Ellis. It is what it is.

- Tomahawk


I never remember them gushing about his hockey sense. But about his athleticism. How he used it and his long reach to recover quickly. The possible offensive upside he brought and his skating ability. They used to talk about his physical game. But again all that was a a lesser level is all I’m saying. What I saw this year was completely different. Whole team yes. Some more than others.

I would think you would have loved the trade as well. Since you think Patrick is a waste. Ellis is by far the better d man. Don’t think Myers will ever be on his level. And I had hoped for him this year as well.

Just searched as well. Didn’t find any articles praising his iq. Found one Kjell Samuelson said he needs to work on his defending and board work but was jumping in the play offensively. Another after paired with sanhiem that Gordon said it took a little time but he was getting better positionally on defense. Only read 5 articles. All spoke about his athleticism.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 29 @ 6:33 PM ET
This clearly shows that both Flyers and Sharks were bad PK teams last year, in fact Jones had his worst PK save % since 2014 with the Kings. But if you look at 5 on 5, Jones was better than Elliott and Hart. So this once again demonstrates that overall team defense has the most impact on a goalie's metrics. I conclude that the Flyers will be top 10 in team defense next season, and thus both Hart and Jones will have outstanding numbers!
- jd250


PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 29 @ 6:55 PM ET
I really hate these types of charts because they never tell the entire story, no matter how many numbers they have on it. Here is the bottom line, Martin Jones actually had a good year last year, and a much better year than ether Carter Hart or Brian Elliott. Here is a comparison of the 3 of them:

5v5 Save% PK Save % PP Save %
Hart .889 .777 .913
Elliott .892 .865 .889
Jones .904 .833 .935

This clearly shows that both Flyers and Sharks were bad PK teams last year, in fact Jones had his worst PK save % since 2014 with the Kings. But if you look at 5 on 5, Jones was better than Elliott and Hart. So this once again demonstrates that overall team defense has the most impact on a goalie's metrics. I conclude that the Flyers will be top 10 in team defense next season, and thus both Hart and Jones will have outstanding numbers!

- jd250


Non sequitur of the day?
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jul 29 @ 6:59 PM ET
I never remember them gushing about his hockey sense. But about his athleticism. How he used it and his long reach to recover quickly. The possible offensive upside he brought and his skating ability. They used to talk about his physical game. But again all that was a a lesser level is all I’m saying. What I saw this year was completely different. Whole team yes. Some more than others.

I would think you would have loved the trade as well. Since you think Patrick is a waste. Ellis is by far the better d man. Don’t think Myers will ever be on his level. And I had hoped for him this year as well.

Just searched as well. Didn’t find any articles praising his iq. Found one Kjell Samuelson said he needs to work on his defending and board work but was jumping in the play offensively. Another after paired with sanhiem that Gordon said it took a little time but he was getting better positionally on defense. Only read 5 articles. All spoke about his athleticism.

- Peter Richards

I always remember it as ‘this guy has all the tools’ not he has great anticipation or hockey sense.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 29 @ 7:03 PM ET
I never remember them gushing about his hockey sense. But about his athleticism. How he used it and his long reach to recover quickly. The possible offensive upside he brought and his skating ability. They used to talk about his physical game. But again all that was a a lesser level is all I’m saying. What I saw this year was completely different. Whole team yes. Some more than others.

I would think you would have loved the trade as well. Since you think Patrick is a waste. Ellis is by far the better d man. Don’t think Myers will ever be on his level. And I had hoped for him this year as well.

Just searched as well. Didn’t find any articles praising his iq. Found one Kjell Samuelson said he needs to work on his defending and board work but was jumping in the play offensively. Another after paired with sanhiem that Gordon said it took a little time but he was getting better positionally on defense. Only read 5 articles. All spoke about his athleticism.

- Peter Richards


Colin McDonald, his captain in LHV:
"We see glimpses of him dominating a game. It’s the way he sees the ice and can skate and move the puck. He’s a pain to play against in practice and I can understand why he’s so effective in games.”

AV:
"He was effective for us, he showed poise with the puck. Not just in the offensive zone but in our end in pressure situations. He is a young player that is just scratching the surface."

Fletch:
"We're bullish on Philippe Myers' upside... Myers in my opinion will become [an] elite shutdown defensem[a]n in this league."

Hexy:“He’s got good poise with the puck. He’s not afraid to lug the puck. He’s built on some of the stuff that we saw last year when we signed him. He’s done a good job.”


That's just from a quick 5min google search. And doesn't include opinions of people who don't matter, like analysts, reporters, broadcasters etc who have heaped praise on Myers with no reservations about his IQ.
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jul 29 @ 7:06 PM ET
Bill,

If the isles were in on tarasenko would the flyers get in to his up the price, I guess no because they could get stuck

But any insight on the behind the scenes or are hockey folk just that nice
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jul 29 @ 7:12 PM ET
Bill,

If the isles were in on tarasenko would the flyers get in to his up the price, I guess no because they could get stuck

But any insight on the behind the scenes or are hockey folk just that nice

- wcorvette



I can see that whole thing exploding in their face the first time Tarasenko takes a hard hit on that shoulder and IT explodes.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 29 @ 7:13 PM ET


Just searched as well. Didn’t find any articles praising his iq. Found one Kjell Samuelson said he needs to work on his defending and board work but was jumping in the play offensively. Another after paired with sanhiem that Gordon said it took a little time but he was getting better positionally on defense. Only read 5 articles. All spoke about his athleticism.

- Peter Richards


You didn't find any articles written before last season criticizing his hockey IQ either?
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 29 @ 7:13 PM ET
Great response, you beat me to it, I was about to respond the same way
- jd250


1. Re zone starts: they have a negligible impact on possession stats. I posted this fact just two days ago. I even posted a link. If you don't believe me, just search.

2. Dahlin started his stint with BUF on 3rd/2nd line, moving up to 1st this year. Risto played 1st line, moving down to 2nd this year. The team they played in was largely similar. Dahlin played easier minutes, but he was also much younger, and had weaker partners on average. Of course they are comparable in wondering why their relative stats should be so dissimilar. Then of course there are the 175 other players I posted.

Anyway, I have posted 10 times more than is necessary to convince all but the deranged.
THE EVIL WITHIN
Location: NJ
Joined: 11.20.2017

Jul 29 @ 7:14 PM ET
@JFreshHockey
Martin Jones, signed 1x$2M by PHI, has struggled quite a bit since 2018 and tends to have catastrophic games. He was better than both of the Flyers' goalies last season, amusingly. #FlyorDie



- Tomahawk

OMG! A classic cat in the sack!
THE EVIL WITHIN
Location: NJ
Joined: 11.20.2017

Jul 29 @ 7:19 PM ET
Bill,

If the isles were in on tarasenko would the flyers get in to his up the price, I guess no because they could get stuck

But any insight on the behind the scenes or are hockey folk just that nice

- wcorvette

Tarasenko has 34 games 7 goals last 2 seasons. That's like a healthy Patrick!!!
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 29 @ 7:19 PM ET
I never remember them gushing about his hockey sense. But about his athleticism. How he used it and his long reach to recover quickly. The possible offensive upside he brought and his skating ability. They used to talk about his physical game. But again all that was a a lesser level is all I’m saying. What I saw this year was completely different. Whole team yes. Some more than others.

I would think you would have loved the trade as well. Since you think Patrick is a waste. Ellis is by far the better d man. Don’t think Myers will ever be on his level. And I had hoped for him this year as well.

Just searched as well. Didn’t find any articles praising his iq. Found one Kjell Samuelson said he needs to work on his defending and board work but was jumping in the play offensively. Another after paired with sanhiem that Gordon said it took a little time but he was getting better positionally on defense. Only read 5 articles. All spoke about his athleticism.

- Peter Richards


What I don't understand is, if positional strength/hockey IQ was the desired attribute, why choose as the replacement the league poster child for their absence?

As for physicality, being hard to play against hardly means going out of your way to initiate contact anymore. In and of itself, it rarely does anything. Weber and company tried to turn the tide by hitting Point and Kucherov. Did it work? We tried it against the Caps in 2016. Did it work?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 29 @ 7:22 PM ET
1. Re zone starts: they have a negligible impact on possession stats. I posted this fact just two days ago. I even posted a link. If you don't believe me, just search.

2. Dahlin started his stint with BUF on 3rd/2nd line, moving up to 1st this year. Risto played 1st line, moving down to 2nd this year. The team they played in was largely similar. Dahlin played easier minutes, but he was also much younger, and had weaker partners on average. Of course they are comparable in wondering why their relative stats should be so dissimilar. Then of course there are the 175 other players I posted.

Anyway, I have posted 10 times more than is necessary to convince all but the deranged.

- PT21



Defensive zone starts and player deployment absolutely has an effect on a players possession stats. That really doesn't matter. What it really points out is that your statement that Ristolainen and Dahlin play in the same situations is completely untrue. It also further illustrates a continued lack of understanding that you can't just look at one stat and make a credible analysis. It all has to be taken into consideration and even then you might be able to use the numbers to account for maybe 25% of data that goes into accurately analyzing a player.
You're doing to exact thing that even chief proponents of analytics despise. Cherry picking one stat.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 29 @ 7:22 PM ET
OMG! A classic cat in the sack!
- THE EVIL WITHIN


You mean: die katze im sack kaufen?
Peter Richards
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.24.2019

Jul 29 @ 7:26 PM ET
Colin McDonald, his captain in LHV:
"We see glimpses of him dominating a game. It’s the way he sees the ice and can skate and move the puck. He’s a pain to play against in practice and I can understand why he’s so effective in games.”

AV:
"He was effective for us, he showed poise with the puck. Not just in the offensive zone but in our end in pressure situations. He is a young player that is just scratching the surface."

Fletch:
"We're bullish on Philippe Myers' upside... Myers in my opinion will become

- Tomahawk[an] elite shutdown defensem[a]n in this league."

Hexy:“He’s got good poise with the puck. He’s not afraid to lug the puck. He’s built on some of the stuff that we saw last year when we signed him. He’s done a good job.”


That's just from a quick 5min google search. And doesn't include opinions of people who don't matter, like analysts, reporters, broadcasters etc who have heaped praise on Myers with no reservations about his IQ.


Poise with the puck. Lesser competition. Athletic. …… why bring up people that don’t matter. The two I quoted were coaches assessment. Yes you have av in there. But the gm quotes are cliche. Chucks was when they asked him about signing Myers and if he planned on starting him him with provie. Or something. Context.

Nothing about defending his ability to read defensive plays. The comments I posted were from his coaches as well. Again never said he wasn’t or would t be an nhl defender. Nothing again praises his hockey iq. Poise with the puck is just not panicking under pressure.

MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 29 @ 7:33 PM ET
Poise with the puck. Lesser competition. Athletic. …… why bring up people that don’t matter. The two I quoted were coaches assessment. Yes you have av in there. But the gm quotes are cliche. Chucks was when they asked him about signing Myers and if he planned on starting him him with provie. Or something. Context.

Nothing about defending his ability to read defensive plays. The comments I posted were from his coaches as well. Again never said he wasn’t or would t be an nhl defender. Nothing again praises his hockey iq. Poise with the puck is just not panicking under pressure.

- Peter Richards



You didn't post a single comment. You paraphrased in your own words. Now you're dismissing what doesn't fit your narrative as cliche or from people who don't matter. The point is that through Myers development to the NHL, before last season, you won't find criticism of his hockey sense
Peter Richards
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.24.2019

Jul 29 @ 7:41 PM ET
You didn't post a single comment. You paraphrased in your own words. Now you're dismissing what doesn't fit your narrative as cliche or from people who don't matter. The point is that through Myers development to the NHL, before last season, you won't find criticism of his hockey sense
- MJL


Didn’t dismiss was just pointing it out. But yes. Gm comments are 99 percent of the time cliche. Paraphrase yes look up I said what they said didn’t change the context. Next time I’ll do the direct quote. One was from nbc sports so go for it. Nothing praises his hockey sense either.

Look up what he worked on or the criticisms. Wasnt moving the puck or his athletic ability. It was d reads and consistency.
hfc355
Joined: 06.17.2013

Jul 29 @ 7:42 PM ET
Patrick was by far the worst skater on the team last year. Not sure how that isn't clear to everyone that watched.
- bradster

Patrick was awful last year but little was expected of him. Not so for Hayes..he was awful and lots was expected
Peter Richards
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.24.2019

Jul 29 @ 7:43 PM ET
You didn't find any articles written before last season criticizing his hockey IQ either?
- MJL


With what was post earlier I disagree.

If he has all the athletic tools and this great hockey sense then I guess why wasn’t he better. In the NHl sooner. Not drafted. Not signed by Calgary. Just curious.

Myers quote on not being drafted “I have to go back and work harder.” Why. On what.
bradster
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.18.2009

Jul 29 @ 8:45 PM ET
Patrick was awful last year but little was expected of him. Not so for Hayes..he was awful and lots was expected
- hfc355


we werent comparing the two, you said hayes was the worst skater, i said patrick was the worst.....simple

But Hayes wasnt very good either, he looked awful, hopefully it was injury, i think he had surgery after the season
bradster
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.18.2009

Jul 29 @ 8:49 PM ET
For the Meyers defenders, and worried about Ellis' injury history. Meyers hasnt been a book of health either in his 2 short seasons hes played, he has missed plenty of time, wouldnt be surprised if it was more than ellis missed through the same amount of games.

Not sure if the bashing on ellis is because you dont want a vet, or you really think meyers will be pronger or maybe both. But for the next couple years ellis wil be the better player, and maybe for the next 5 years if Meyers cant turn it around. But we still have a lot of prosepects on this team, so the giving away our future is total BS. We are better now,and till have our prospects.
Peter Richards
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.24.2019

Jul 29 @ 9:06 PM ET
For the Meyers defenders, and worried about Ellis' injury history. Meyers hasnt been a book of health either in his 2 short seasons hes played, he has missed plenty of time, wouldnt be surprised if it was more than ellis missed through the same amount of games.

Not sure if the bashing on ellis is because you dont want a vet, or you really think meyers will be pronger or maybe both. But for the next couple years ellis wil be the better player, and maybe for the next 5 years if Meyers cant turn it around. But we still have a lot of prosepects on this team, so the giving away our future is total BS. We are better now,and till have our prospects.

- bradster


Agree
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