Hey buddy.
How are you doing?

Was it a direct result of getting the 2nd shot?
- Fakepartofme

Yep. Triggered body wide muscle spasms that caused a minor stroke. Was very fun. Thankfully they expect I won't have any lasting issues.

They are rumoured to be willing to retain. In fact they want to retain so they can stay at the cap floor.

I'd imagine they want to wait until FA to make sure they can get a replacement for him.

I really do think that move is coming.
- Santo_44

Kerfoot for Kuemper seems like a good move, but then we have a hole at 3C..

If someone like Coleman gets $5M per season, how are we going to find a cheap(ish) 3C?

Kerfoot for Kuemper seems like a good move, but then we have a hole at 3C..

If someone like Coleman gets $5M per season, how are we going to find a cheap(ish) 3C?
- PatC80

Bonino, Stastny are two great short term options.

There are trade routes they can go.

it sucks the Florida fired Tallon and got smart.
Another team in the Div to contend with

Very Blue Jays with NYY/BOS/TBR to overcome

Yep. Triggered body wide muscle spasms that caused a minor stroke. Was very fun. Thankfully they expect I won't have any lasting issues.
- AdamFrench

Other than the ones you already have.

It's the second dumbest rule in hockey. It's unfortunate that it happened. I'm not holding that one against Marner. We were all disappointed at his level of engagement in the playoffs. For the record, I'd still consider trading him for the right return, but given how much top-2 defensemen are now being paid, I'm not sure we'd get the cap savings out of trading Marner that we need.
- Monkeypunk

If he did it once most would just forget about it.

But didn't he do that multiple times during the one series?

It's the second dumbest rule in hockey. It's unfortunate that it happened. I'm not holding that one against Marner. We were all disappointed at his level of engagement in the playoffs. For the record, I'd still consider trading him for the right return, but given how much top-2 defensemen are now being paid, I'm not sure we'd get the cap savings out of trading Marner that we need.
- Monkeypunk

Yeah, I don't like the rule either but it is what it is.

I'm hoping he will turn it around in the playoffs at some point in time.

Kerfoot for Kuemper seems like a good move, but then we have a hole at 3C..

If someone like Coleman gets $5M per season, how are we going to find a cheap(ish) 3C?
- PatC80

Engvall with a couple 1/2 decent wingers

He bumped Kerfoot down at times during the year.

Bonino, Stastny are two great short term options.

There are trade routes they can go.
- Santo_44

Are they signing for less than 3.5? I doubt statsny does.

They are rumoured to be willing to retain. In fact they want to retain so they can stay at the cap floor.

I'd imagine they want to wait until FA to make sure they can get a replacement for him.

I really do think that move is coming.
- Santo_44

Dream on.

David Hains
@DavidHains

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Check out the sixth comment.

Toooooooo funny.

Are they signing for less than 3.5? I doubt statsny does.
- Aaron_85

Yes.

Can not see how either gets 3.5....

Kerfoot for Kuemper seems like a good move, but then we have a hole at 3C..

If someone like Coleman gets $5M per season, how are we going to find a cheap(ish) 3C?
- PatC80

It's almost like we have a massive contract on this team that is making things super difficult.

Kuemper will be a Leaf I think.

Mrazek is an option in FA but will be plenty of situations for him.
- Santo_44

Because spreadsheet nerds are going to make spreadsheets and be nerds . . . I took all the goalies from the past year (technically it was the past 10 years, but that's irrelevant) and then I compared their respective save percentage rates by type (High, Medium, Low) compared to the distribution of how the Leafs gave up chances in 2020 to see how different goalies would fare.

It's a math exercise, not a scouting exercise, but the idea is to give an idea of the style of a goalie separated from their system. Bear in mind that this can never really accommodate how defensive styles affect the true chances of an HD shot (ie, my favourite example is how Hellebuyck drops down, covers the net and the defense swarm down low, so the puck may hit Hellebuyck 4 or 5 times in tight - at least 1 or 2 HD chances - but nothing really has a chance of getting in the net).

Disclaimer aside: Kuemper basically is the same as Andersen. There's a lot of guys that we do like that may not fare well in a more open system; the following goalies based on their 2020 save rates would fared worse than Andersen in Toronto's 2020 system: Price, Raanta, Markstrom, Jarry, Samsonov, Blackwood, Bobrovsky, Gibson, Ullmark, Reimer, Korpisalo . . . guys who fared better that we like: Mrazek (way better - top 5), Fleury, Nedelkovic, Hellebuyck, Vasilevskiy, Lehner, Driedger, Grubauer and Bernier.

Note that Campbell was 5th in the above exercise, but he had such a stellar run that's not what I'd consider an expected norm.

Bonino, Stastny are two great short term options.

There are trade routes they can go.
- Santo_44

will be $$ to sign
Bonino would be that option

Yes.

Can not see how either gets 3.5....
- Santo_44

Um, no.

It's almost like we have a massive contract on this team that is making things super difficult.
- mjones242

Yes, almost like that... If we could only move out (#16) one of them to improve the rest of the roster.. Moving one big contract (#16) would be a big help.. The question is (#16) which contract do they move?

will be $$ to sign
Bonino would be that option
- dmnted

If we move Kerf I’d guess we promote within , maybe do a team effort with Spezza/Engvall competing and taking turns at 3c/4c

It's almost like we have a massive contract on this team that is making things super difficult.
- mjones242

It's not like the top-heavy distribution isn't a known problem - but $5m for a 3C feels like a poor use of capspace. I mean, the guy is going to play 12 - 15 minutes / game. I'd love Danault, but he's also looking in that range. Bonino? Nash?

Yes, almost like that... If we could only move out (#16) one of them to improve the rest of the roster.. Moving one big contract (#16) would be a big help.. The question is (#16) which contract do they move?
- PatC80

Engvall and his greedy 1.25

So, let's recap:

Jaro Halak, Nik Bonino, and a couple of 1M plugs to skate around and stuff.

Executive of the year stuff, that.

So, let's recap:

Jaro Halak, Nik Bonino, and a couple of 1M plugs to skate around and stuff.

Executive of the year stuff, that.
- fifty__missions

Yes, Bonino is the piece to put us over the top.

Engvall and his greedy 1.25
- Aaron_85

that's way too much money to pay someone on our 3rd line.. Maybe trade Engvall and sign Joe Thornton to a 1 yr deal again

I was going to say that I don't know if I consider Marner an elite penalty killer per se - just based on how he goes about it (he's not tight to the man, he doesn't check tight, and he doesn't cause turnovers once a player has controlled the puck; he's not a pressure PK guy).

I looked at the numbers, and to me results matter, but results are often based on the goaltending behind you.

How well do you suppress chances against and how well do you suppress high danger chances against?

Ignoring the opportunities created (which Marner is great at), Marner is the 6th best forward (minimum 50 minutes on PK) at allowing HD Chances against. To me that's notable because above you have Killorn, Gourde and Cirelli from Tampa, Atkinson and Kuraly. If you look you see a couple more Columbus players in the top-15 and a couple more Boston players in the top-20 -- but the next Leaf after Marner is Kerfoot at 28. Marner leads the Leafs in every meaningful PK category - shot suppression, dangerous shot suppression, expected goals against and 2nd in actual goals against. (edited to add a clarification: To me this indicates that the others are a byproduct of being good within a good system; Marner stands out well above the deployed system in Toronto).

So in other words: Don't mind me. Carry on. *I'll* allow him to be called an elite penalty killer.
- Monkeypunk

Quoted for truth to Marner Victims

Because spreadsheet nerds are going to make spreadsheets and be nerds . . . I took all the goalies from the past year (technically it was the past 10 years, but that's irrelevant) and then I compared their respective save percentage rates by type (High, Medium, Low) compared to the distribution of how the Leafs gave up chances in 2020 to see how different goalies would fare.

It's a math exercise, not a scouting exercise, but the idea is to give an idea of the style of a goalie separated from their system. Bear in mind that this can never really accommodate how defensive styles affect the true chances of an HD shot (ie, my favourite example is how Hellebuyck drops down, covers the net and the defense swarm down low, so the puck may hit Hellebuyck 4 or 5 times in tight - at least 1 or 2 HD chances - but nothing really has a chance of getting in the net).

Disclaimer aside: Kuemper basically is the same as Andersen. There's a lot of guys that we do like that may not fare well in a more open system; the following goalies based on their 2020 save rates would fared worse than Andersen in Toronto's 2020 system: Price, Raanta, Markstrom, Jarry, Samsonov, Blackwood, Bobrovsky, Gibson, Ullmark, Reimer, Korpisalo . . . guys who fared better that we like: Mrazek (way better - top 5), Fleury, Nedelkovic, Hellebuyck, Vasilevskiy, Lehner, Driedger, Grubauer and Bernier.

Note that Campbell was 5th in the above exercise, but he had such a stellar run that's not what I'd consider an expected norm.
- Monkeypunk

Yeah I mean there is much more that goes into getting a goalie than just signing a guy that looked good on another team.

I really don't like too many available options. The FA market is crap aside from Mrazek.