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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Draft Weekend Notes, Quotes, and Transcripts
Author Message
black_francis
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bumfuck, NJ
Joined: 01.10.2015

Jul 25 @ 12:24 PM ET
Show me where I stated Risto is aging. I'll wait.
- MJL


Yes, really first round and 2nd round picks have more potential to drive this team to being a contender than the moves he made recently. Here you go again, devaluing draft picks in order to justify the moves. Which I will remind you of the next time you criticize a team for doing the same.

What could possibly elevate this team to a Cup team would be if Hart rapidly escalates to becoming a top NHL goaltender. Or if a player like Frost or York turns out to be more than projected. Otherwise the most likely outcome is a team that is not good enough and now has aging players signed to high contracts that have declined such as Hayes, Ellis, Ristolainen and Atkinson.
- MJL
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 25 @ 12:27 PM ET
What will happen is the same thing that happened this year, Fletcher will make deals and open up space to sign the younger players. I mean no one thought Jake could be traded without giving up picks and prospects, but he was. No one thought Ghost could be traded unless we gave up a 1st round pick, but he was. I don't know about you, but I am getting older. It would be nice to see the Flyers actually win something before I fall off a cliff someday.

What many fail to see here is this all fallout from Hextall missing on his draft picks. If Hextall had drafted Makar like he was supposed to, it would be the Flyers who were signing him for 8 years instead of Colorado. But instead, its the Flyers trading top picks and players to fix their bad defense with good players. So it all comes back to one thing, you MUST hit on your draft picks, especially the higher ones if you want to contend for many years.

- jd250


So we'll continue to give up draft picks to move out bad contracts? Good solid long term plan. What people said about trading Voracek was that you weren't going to be able to trade him without taking salary back. They also had to take on more term to move him. For a player who while still a good player seems to be in decline. Which could change of course.
Your statement that if Hextall had drafted Makar like he was supposed is silly. Hextall drafted the player who was a consensus at the top of the draft.
How do you hit on draft picks if you keep trading them away to move out bad contracts?
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jul 25 @ 12:28 PM ET
Here you go again getting personal. His family is none of your business.
- MJL

I wouldn't give PT21 the satisfaction of a response when he asks classless questions like this. His question just demonstrates that he has once again lost one of his ridiculous vanity-metric laced arguments.
Peter Richards
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.24.2019

Jul 25 @ 12:29 PM ET
I wouldn’t call that getting destroyed.
- bird_dog_pa


Neither did I. I do t believe. Said I’m sure there’s videos of him being destroyed. But doesn’t really matter I guess
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 25 @ 12:30 PM ET
Yes, really first round and 2nd round picks have more potential to drive this team to being a contender than the moves he made recently. Here you go again, devaluing draft picks in order to justify the moves. Which I will remind you of the next time you criticize a team for doing the same.

What could possibly elevate this team to a Cup team would be if Hart rapidly escalates to becoming a top NHL goaltender. Or if a player like Frost or York turns out to be more than projected. Otherwise the most likely outcome is a team that is not good enough and now has aging players signed to high contracts that have declined such as Hayes, Ellis

Ristolainen and Atkinson.
- MJL

- black_francis


I would amend that and not put Ristolainen in the aging category currently as he is only 26. I'll also further clarify that the post is looking towards the future and the likelihood that Ristolainen has contract leverage over the Flyers and it is likely he will be signed to a future deal taking him into his 30's at a high cap hit putting him in the aging category at that point down the road. That is the context of the post.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 25 @ 12:31 PM ET
I wouldn't give PT21 the satisfaction of a response when he asks classless questions like this. His question just demonstrates that he has once again lost one of his ridiculous vanity-metric laced arguments.
- jd250


Word of advice, don't share personal or family information with PT21. He's already tried to use the death of my Father against me in a personal attack.
black_francis
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bumfuck, NJ
Joined: 01.10.2015

Jul 25 @ 12:31 PM ET
I would amend that and not put Ristolainen in the aging category currently as he is only 26. I'll also further clarify that the post is looking towards the future and the likelihood that Ristolainen has contract leverage over the Flyers and it is likely he will be signed to a future deal taking him into his 30's at a high cap hit putting him in the aging category at that point down the road. That is the context of the post.
- MJL


We would have 6 of our 7 defensemen drafted from the 1st round. You talk about potential and draft picks - well this is what it would look like.
hfc355
Joined: 06.17.2013

Jul 25 @ 12:32 PM ET
Hart is a 22 year old kid that was under siege from the opening bell, and Hayes was hurt with an abdominal injury that required off season surgery. Yet in your mind these were the two worst players in the Flyers last year? Not a healthy Patrick with a -31 +/-? Or Myers who was completely lost for the entire season and scratched multiple times? Or Hagg who was healthy scratched by the worst defensive team in the league? Or Ghost who literally looked like a turn style on his own blue line night after night? Really?
- jd250

Based on expected performance those 2 were by far the 2 worst players on the team. Hart was absolutely abysmal last year the worst starting goalie in the NHL.....Hayes was just awful. The injury he had was minor and if I remember correctly missed 1 game , a healthy scratch , and maybe a practice or 2. Dont you think if his injury was impairing his play he would have been sat the last 10 games when they were playing for nothing?? Myers..Hagg..Ghost were not the Flyers main underperformers last year. Hayes..Hart..TK..Sanheim..Provorov to name a few performed much worse to expectations.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 25 @ 12:33 PM ET
I wouldn't give PT21 the satisfaction of a response when he asks classless questions like this. His question just demonstrates that he has once again lost one of his ridiculous vanity-metric laced arguments.
- jd250


I did not realize that the elicitation from you of the word RELATIVE (aunt, uncle, cousin), as a humorous segue to me pointing out that I have repeatedly used RELATIVE possession stats, and not the absolute possession ones we both agree are affected by team and which you keep pointing out, is classless.

I am grateful we can both avoid this exercise. And I will merely note you are an absolute winner, JD250. You and MJL are true intellectual kin fellows, and you will forever walk together.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jul 25 @ 12:33 PM ET
So we'll continue to give up draft picks to move out bad contracts? Good solid long term plan. What people said about trading Voracek was that you weren't going to be able to trade him without taking salary back. They also had to take on more term to move him. For a player who while still a good player seems to be in decline. Which could change of course.
Your statement that if Hextall had drafted Makar like he was supposed is silly. Hextall drafted the player who was a consensus at the top of the draft.
How do you hit on draft picks if you keep trading them away to move out bad contracts?

- MJL

Very true, what Fletcher was forced to do this off season is not sustainable and cannot happen every season. The Patriots were actually is a similar situation this off season. They pushed Brady out without a viable replacement, and draft poorly the last 4 or 5 drafts, so they fielded a very bad team last year. This forced ownership to spend $250M+ on free agents this offseason to try to get back into contention. This is not a sustainable way to field a contending team season after season, I agree. Again, this is why its important to hit on your draft picks! What I bolded in your response is important, because the Flyers did not trade all their picks, they traded a one first round pick in a weak draft, 2 future 2nd round picks and a 7th round pick. They still made 6 picks this year, and will be making picks in the future, so they have plenty of opportunity to hit on their picks.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 25 @ 12:36 PM ET


I am grateful we can both avoid this exercise. And I will merely note you are an absolute winner, JD250. You and MJL are true intellectual kin fellows, and you will forever walk together.

- PT21


Can't help but get personal. For someone who claims to be intellectually superior, it's amazing that you constantly have to resort to that.


PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 25 @ 12:36 PM ET
Yes, really first round and 2nd round picks have more potential to drive this team to being a contender than the moves he made recently. Here you go again, devaluing draft picks in order to justify the moves. Which I will remind you of the next time you criticize a team for doing the same.

What could possibly elevate this team to a Cup team would be if Hart rapidly escalates to becoming a top NHL goaltender. Or if a player like Frost or York turns out to be more than projected. Otherwise the most likely outcome is a team that is not good enough and now has aging players signed to high contracts that have declined such as Hayes, Ellis, Ristolainen and Atkinson.
- MJL

- black_francis


In the guy's defense though, he is clearly referring to a state that could happen in the future. We could get to a state where we are stuck with a then aging Risto, Hayes and so on.

jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jul 25 @ 12:38 PM ET
Based on expected performance those 2 were by far the 2 worst players on the team. Hart was absolutely abysmal last year the worst starting goalie in the NHL.....Hayes was just awful. The injury he had was minor and if I remember correctly missed 1 game , a healthy scratch , and maybe a practice or 2. Dont you think if his injury was impairing his play he would have been sat the last 10 games when they were playing for nothing?? Myers..Hagg..Ghost were not the Flyers main underperformers last year. Hayes..Hart..TK..Sanheim..Provorov to name a few performed much worse to expectations.
- hfc355

For what its worth, and this is just my speculation, I think Hayes was hurt a lot more than he lead on. I mean his injury required surgery in the offseason, so that implies a certain level of seriousness.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 25 @ 12:38 PM ET
Very true, what Fletcher was forced to do this off season is not sustainable and cannot happen every season. The Patriots were actually is a similar situation this off season. They pushed Brady out without a viable replacement, and draft poorly the last 4 or 5 drafts, so they fielded a very bad team last year. This forced ownership to spend $250M+ on free agents this offseason to try to get back into contention. This is not a sustainable way to field a contending team season after season, I agree. Again, this is why its important to hit on your draft picks! What I bolded in your response is important, because the Flyers did not trade all their picks, they traded a one first round pick in a weak draft, 2 future 2nd round picks and a 7th round pick. They still made 6 picks this year, and will be making picks in the future, so they have plenty of opportunity to hit on their picks.
- jd250



You're contradicting yourself. They'll have less opportunities to hit when they as you suggested, can make deals to get out of bad contracts. The best way to stay out of bad contracts is to not make them.
black_francis
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bumfuck, NJ
Joined: 01.10.2015

Jul 25 @ 12:41 PM ET
In the guy's defense though, he is clearly referring to a state that could happen in the future. We could get to a state where we are stuck with a then aging Risto, Hayes and so on.


- PT21


My argument is that his stance all along has been don’t give up draft picks, potential, etc. provy, ellis, sanheim, risto, York, Morin all first round picks. Braun in the second round. what he wants to put together with these draft picks is something we have in front of us right now - a stacked d core. Except that instead of potential, these are mostly fully realized defensemen. an incredible group of first round picks that mostly panned out minus York and Morin and they might end up being great this year in their roles. What we have on the team is as good as you could hope for from drafting well.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jul 25 @ 12:42 PM ET
I did not realize that the elicitation from you of the word RELATIVE (aunt, uncle, cousin), as a humorous segue to me pointing out that I have repeatedly used RELATIVE possession stats, and not the absolute possession ones we both agree are affected by team and which you keep pointing out, is classless.

I am grateful we can both avoid this exercise. And I will merely note you are an absolute winner, JD250. You and MJL are true intellectual kin fellows, and you will forever walk together.

- PT21

Listen, this will all be settled in a few months. Unlike you, I will judge this trade based on the results it yields, not speculate on how bad RR will play based on his "relative" metrics accumulated while playing for the worst team in the league for several years. I for one am excited that the Flyers got RR and I am looking forward to seeing how he does here. Make no mistake, if he Sucks, you will see me posting it. But to try to poo-poo what has been an outstanding week for CF and for anyone that loves this team is just not needed at the moment. Can't we just be happy and celebrate for a day or two? I for one think the RR will do much better on the Flyers. I have been wrong one or twice before, so let's see what happens first.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 25 @ 12:43 PM ET
My argument is that his stance all along has been don’t give up draft picks, potential, etc. provy, ellis, sanheim, risto, York, Morin all first round picks. Braun in the second round. what he wants to put together with these draft picks is something we have in front of us right now - a stacked d core. Except that instead of potential, these are mostly fully realized defensemen. an incredible group of first round picks that mostly panned out minus York and he might end up being great. What we have on the team is as good as you could hope for from drafting well.
- black_francis


I would not label this defense as a stacked defense core and disagree that the current defense is as good as you could hope for from drafting well. If you think that is the case then I would suggest that opinion is very misguided. In my opinion.
bradster
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.18.2009

Jul 25 @ 12:43 PM ET
Yeah this argument is ridiculous. Always draft and develop and god forbid you use one of those complete unknowns for known talent. But then again in his eyes we will never be close enough to a cup to ever make a move.
- black_francis


wish we wouldbe traded the patrick pick, rubstov pick, leberge and ginning picks

i think we are getting close, should be a playoff team, and then evaluate what changes we need to make, and hopefully 1 or 2 years right in the thick of it. Too tampa a while, and they were making tweaks along the way. Same with Washington
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 25 @ 12:45 PM ET
My argument is that his stance all along has been don’t give up draft picks, potential, etc. provy, ellis, sanheim, risto, York, Morin all first round picks. Braun in the second round. what he wants to put together with these draft picks is something we have in front of us right now - a stacked d core. Except that instead of potential, these are mostly fully realized defensemen. an incredible group of first round picks that mostly panned out minus York and he might end up being great. What we have on the team is as good as you could hope for from drafting well.
- black_francis


I was just making a narrow point of order, not getting into the argument.

When you thought he was referring to an aging Risto, it seems like from what you quoted, he was referring to a future situation where we could be stuck with an aging Risto. He was not saying that Risto is aging now.

jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jul 25 @ 12:46 PM ET
You're contradicting yourself. They'll have less opportunities to hit when they as you suggested, can make deals to get out of bad contracts. The best way to stay out of bad contracts is to not make them.
- MJL

Very true, but don't you have to go for it once and a while? I mean, what if Seth Jones gets hurt (God forbid) this coming season and misses significant time. Then comes back but never plays to the level he played before the injury. Was that a bad contract? Did Chicago make a bad mistake in trading for and signing Jones?

Fletcher signed Hayes which I thought at the time was a bad contract. Hextall signed JVR which at the time I thought was a bad contract. But circumstances at the time dictated some of these moves, so yes you want to avoid them, but sometimes you just can't.
black_francis
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bumfuck, NJ
Joined: 01.10.2015

Jul 25 @ 12:47 PM ET
I would not label this defense as a stacked defense core and disagree that the current defense is as good as you could hope for from drafting well. If you think that is the case then I would suggest that opinion is very misguided. In my opinion.
- MJL


In your eyes how does our defense stack up against Nashville or Tampa Bay? On paper I think we look great. But we won’t know until they start playing games. But if draft picks and potential are what look good “on paper” I’d say this group looks good “on paper”
THE BLACK HAND
Joined: 06.09.2021

Jul 25 @ 12:47 PM ET
I read many places he is rumored to be the next GM. I dunno.

Btw, he has hired a woman, who was a Ph.D in Neuroscience from UCSF (A top university for anything medical related).

https://www.si.com/hockey...m-neuroscience-to-the-nhl

- PT21


last semester I had a data science class, running python, that was put together by a team at UC Berkeley. There was a lot of very interesting situations to apply the data but the code writing was horrendous
GeorgeBailey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CT
Joined: 08.16.2006

Jul 25 @ 12:47 PM ET
Analytics can be used as a tool and analytics can be used by a tool.

All kidding aside, I suppose we'll have to see how it plays out. While we may have overpaid, other teams saw something they liked and were willing to pay a somewhat similar price.

Take away next year's cap and assuming Eichel is 100% healthy, would you trade Couturier to get 4 years younger with a $2m cap hit (assuming Couturier gets around $8M/yr)?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 25 @ 12:48 PM ET
Listen, this will all be settled in a few months. Unlike you, I will judge this trade based on the results it yields, not speculate on how bad RR will play based on his "relative" metrics accumulated while playing for the worst team in the league for several years. I for one am excited that the Flyers got RR and I am looking forward to seeing how he does here. Make no mistake, if he Sucks, you will see me posting it. But to try to poo-poo what has been an outstanding week for CF and for anyone that loves this team is just not needed at the moment. Can't we just be happy and celebrate for a day or two? I for one think the RR will do much better on the Flyers. I have been wrong one or twice before, so let's see what happens first.
- jd250


Okay, so now we're actually down to the point. What is the standard you will apply to judge the results? I've said repeatedly that those wanting the Flyers to get better and to be a more entertaining team to watch have most likely gotten their wish. The team should be improved based on the moves made and internal growth. So what are you going to be satisfied with. I watched the team wheel and deal for over a decade with Clarke and then Holmgren as GM's. They always went for it. They came close one season! Then they had to pay a price and move out players for cap reasons, depleted the prospect base and were capped out. It happens quickly. Are now not back in that operating philosophy? Which led to a point where Hextall had to take over and spend 4-5 years recovering from it and still hadn't gotten there? It's a viscious cycle.
black_francis
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bumfuck, NJ
Joined: 01.10.2015

Jul 25 @ 12:49 PM ET
I was just making a narrow point of order, not getting into the argument.

When you thought he was referring to an aging Risto, it seems like from what you quoted, he was referring to a future situation where we could be stuck with an aging Risto. He was not saying that Risto is aging now.

- PT21


If he were to sign a deal with us at his age for 6 years - for a defenseman - is 32 really aging? C’mon
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