He’s 17.4 years old lol
- Assman22

yes, tis true

but, seems that none of the scouts had him anywhere close to the first round, including our own Wiz

Maybe this will be the diamond-in-the-rough I was hoping for earlier

One final Isak Rosen Diddy.
I saw him look chicken crap when I watched the middle of the day Swedish games, but the kid looked like different play in the worlds.

The Alaun Daigle Award

1. Isak Rosen - We admit he's got fabulous hands, top 20 overall type skills. At the first sign of any resistance by opponents, he's done.
Soft second line scorer for a lower tier team.
High end skill set...yet no bite not going to win puck battles b/c he won't be in them. Disapperas in crucial stages.

The only way that can be accurate is when prognosing when someone’s age comes into play and when they’re skills diminish because of that age. Other than that it’s a guessing game. All I know is that I’m excited that Seth is gonna be part of the hawks D, he’s got talent!!
- rwilliams88

You summed up exactly what that chart is doing lol.

It's going off about 40 years worth of player data to create a model on traditional age curves of players. It weighs more recent players higher for comparisons (because obvs the game changes) and then it'll be broken down by position. There will always be outliers but it's creating a standardization from which to apply to other projections.

Age curves and projections aren't a new concept or anything. We wouldn't have qualifiers like prime or peak if that was the case. It's not even particularly new to add value to those curves/trends/projections. It's not a guess because there's sufficient information on which it's based.

Again, Jones could be an outlier but it's still an overall very accurate model.

They're introducing them (both brothers) on an architecture boat cruise tomorrow

And, no, I'm not kidding
- pdx2ord

I guess n mediocre is rebuild for the hawks and no playoffs. Be long decade ahead for hawks fans.

More on Noel Allen:

Perplexing defender with elite talent growing up, but seems to just be spinning his wheels now. Reads opponents' passes well , regularly stepping up on soft or misplaced passes and intercepts them. Will jump up as the 4th man. Shoots the puck lowland gets them through. Process the attack well finding multiple options. Good balance and 4 way movement. fast but not elusive. Willing PK shot blocker.
Since conin g up to the WHL, he has been as active and it may be getting back his confidence. Seemed to have trouble with the faster paced WHL. That is a concern.pressured and he make poor passing decisions...

Forced to watch Olympic ceremony with other Japanese families and I missed out on the internet blowing up over the Jones trade. What the-

9.5M over 8? That's nuts!!! That's the worst part of the trade. Now we're handcuffed down the road. Jones will start an even further decline at 30... Didn't Stan learn anything from the Seabrook deal? Seabrook was a winner!

Imagine if Dach/Kubalik have big years next year and Murphy has a decent year? It's not pretty.

You summed up exactly what that chart is doing lol.

It's going off about 40 years worth of player data to create a model on traditional age curves of players. It weighs more recent players higher for comparisons (because obvs the game changes) and then it'll be broken down by position. There will always be outliers but it's creating a standardization from which to apply to other projections.

Age curves and projections aren't a new concept or anything. We wouldn't have qualifiers like prime or peak if that was the case. It's not even particularly new to add value to those curves/trends/projections. It's not a guess because there's sufficient information on which it's based.

Again, Jones could be an outlier but it's still an overall very accurate model.
- L_B_R

You can’t believe that a chart is gonna be accurate in telling me what a 26 year old elite defenseman is gonna do in the prime of his years and that he’s gonna get worse in his prime. Really? This is what you’re telling me? You gotta be fist(frank)ing me!!

They're introducing them (both brothers) on an architecture boat cruise tomorrow

And, no, I'm not kidding
- pdx2ord

Interesting setting.

You can’t believe that a chart is gonna be accurate in telling me what a 26 year old elite defenseman is gonna do in the prime of his years and that he’s gonna get worse in his prime. Really? This is what you’re telling me? You gotta be fist(frank)ing me!!
- rwilliams88

Settle down. You're conversing with a woman.

Settle down. You're conversing with a woman.
- boilermaker100

In that case, I apologize for my language...honestly didn’t know. Forgive me, I just can’t wrap my head around that, that’s all.

@BenPopeCST

Bowman says Nolan Allan impressed the Blackhawks with Canada during the U18 WCs.

"Nolan was fantastic during that tournament. I got to go watch him in person... He was a really big workhorse for that Canadian team that won the Gold Medal. He caught my eye watching that game."

I feel like we've heard this at least the past three years - Stan sees the guy play a few times at some tournament and decides that's his guy. Wonder if Kelley concurred with this pick or if he was recommending someone else.
- pdx2ord

That's how the Bulls got Marcus Fizer.

God, I hate ESPN.

You summed up exactly what that chart is doing lol.

It's going off about 40 years worth of player data to create a model on traditional age curves of players. It weighs more recent players higher for comparisons (because obvs the game changes) and then it'll be broken down by position. There will always be outliers but it's creating a standardization from which to apply to other projections.

Age curves and projections aren't a new concept or anything. We wouldn't have qualifiers like prime or peak if that was the case. It's not even particularly new to add value to those curves/trends/projections. It's not a guess because there's sufficient information on which it's based.

Again, Jones could be an outlier but it's still an overall very accurate model.
- L_B_R

Can’t we just wait to make 10 years worth of projections based on league-wide averages after Jones plays lets say a full season in Chicago? When he adjusts to playing in a new team, new city, with different role, pressure, expectations, likely with his brother on one team…

It is not only about being a possible outlier, the trajectory might be the same, but one good season can pull the whole vector considerably up on that WAR scale. Just like one really bad season, at least by the numbers, can pull it down.

@BenPopeCST

Bowman says Nolan Allan impressed the Blackhawks with Canada during the U18 WCs.

"Nolan was fantastic during that tournament. I got to go watch him in person... He was a really big workhorse for that Canadian team that won the Gold Medal. He caught my eye watching that game."

I feel like we've heard this at least the past three years - Stan sees the guy play a few times at some tournament and decides that's his guy. Wonder if Kelley concurred with this pick or if he was recommending someone else.
- pdx2ord

Allen played with Kaiden Guhle in the W in the previous season. Guhle was someone the Hawks were interested in taking last draft but the Habs snagged him right before the Hawks pick. So, they have scouted him for more than just that tourney.


Also, FWW, Mason McTavish shot to the top of the draft based on his play in the same tourney. Tho, McTavish was initially a mid 1st round projection.

That's how the Bulls got Marcus Fizer.
- rpeters01

Kenny Williams when GM of the Sox drafted some outfielder who excelled in back flips. He wasn't much of a baseball player though.

You summed up exactly what that chart is doing lol.

It's going off about 40 years worth of player data to create a model on traditional age curves of players. It weighs more recent players higher for comparisons (because obvs the game changes) and then it'll be broken down by position. There will always be outliers but it's creating a standardization from which to apply to other projections.

Age curves and projections aren't a new concept or anything. We wouldn't have qualifiers like prime or peak if that was the case. It's not even particularly new to add value to those curves/trends/projections. It's not a guess because there's sufficient information on which it's based.

Again, Jones could be an outlier but it's still an overall very accurate model.
- L_B_R

I think you can stop. He referred to Jones as elite. Jones has never been elite. Wanna know who has been elite. Werenski. LOL

In that case, I apologize for my language...honestly didn’t know. Forgive me, I just can’t wrap my head around that, that’s all.
- rwilliams88

And this is why LBR does not frequent this site as often, and that’s our loss.

I think you can stop. He referred to Jones as elite. Jones has never been elite. Wanna know who has been elite. Werenski. LOL
- Gramps28

That’s exactly what he is!!

Also how many times have a team signed a d-man to over $7m and it been worth it? Hedman and Josi are the only two for sure imo.

The others are guys like Karlsson, Doughty, OEL, Carlson, Letang, Subban, Vlasic, Burns. Some are still fine but for many the value of their contracts sunk quick or likely will in the next 1-2 years. Jury is still out on Pietrangelo.
- L_B_R

Not even for D-man. Kane is the only player I can think of that signed for 8 years who has been worth that term. And even he started to show some chinks toward the end of this season.

That’s exactly what he is!!
- rwilliams88

Yeah, screams elite.

Elite!

The much hated Conor Murphy.

Yeah, screams elite.
- Gramps28

Here we go again with this chart. How delusional can someone be thinking a chart telling me a 26 year old that’s going into his prime and has shown he’s a #1 defenseman and being ELITE is gonna have a decline in play in that regard heading into his prime years, seriously, that’s what you hang your hat on? Just insanity, I’m sorry!!!!

You can’t believe that a chart is gonna be accurate in telling me what a 26 year old elite defenseman is gonna do in the prime of his years and that he’s gonna get worse in his prime. Really? This is what you’re telling me? You gotta be fist(frank)ing me!!
- rwilliams88

First, calm down bro, it's just a chart.

Second, why can't I take it seriously when it's been accurate across a huge number of simulations? Again, it's based on historical data so it's not random. It's even compares based on TOI to adjust for how top-pair guys tend to be more effective longer than.

Age decline at 27 is common, it's just a minor decline until age 30-31 when it becomes more distinct. It's still prime years but there's also a slope down for most d-men. Which is exactly what that chart is saying too. I mean, it's a -0.1 change from 27-32 actually which is super minor. The issue is that Jones' decline the last two seasons was so sharp, the starting point is lower.

The model also even compensates to acknowledge Jones isn't as bad as his numbers this past season (why it has a +0.4 jump in 2021-22) but it's rare for a drop past age 25 to reverse completely based on history. Again, Jones could be the outlier there but the model is based on actual trends over a huge sample of players and is very accurate as a whole.

The much hated Conor Murphy.


- Gramps28

This I get. Murphy is another legit defenseman that plays the game right. Not flashy but a good solid defenseman.