Yup.

And then how about next season? Rielly UFA. Campbell presumably plays himself into a hefty raise. Sandin will want a raise.

Not good.

The dam will have to break and the core will have to be broken up. Just wish we didn't have to wait a year for that to happen.

Also, why isn't Dubas - who is supposed to be an analytics genius - finding us some players who are under the radar but just waiting to be given a chance to shine? Ugh. Is Gally all he can muster?
- mjones242

Maybe Dubas isn't really good at analytics or GMing?

I don't think this is a particularly good draft. I wouldn't be trading for picks in this year's draft - unless you have a prospect who doesn't want to sign, or you can't fit in your depth pool sufficiently and you want to shuffle some of these guys along for a 4th-7rd pick just to give you some late round pot shots in the draft . . .

I still think with Kerfoot the idea is that his value is more than a 7th and Hallander - who, if things work out well, may one day turn out to be a 3rd line centre who still probably doesn't have the upside that Kerfoot does. Again that's a crapshoot, so who knows. But the bottom line is that if you were running the Leafs you wouldn't trade a guy just to get rid of him if you didn't have a replacement or a plan for replacement in mind.

Free Agency will likely be the deciding factor on where Kerfoot lands. The assets were spent because the 3C role was worth more than we spent to insure it. Now if we can improve upon that position through FA or through a trade, then I think it happens. We don't have a lot of centre depth, so I doubt that at camp Brooks or someone of that ilk comes in and he's so good that we're inclined to trade Kerfoot then - but really that's the only time that I'd move him. Otherwise I'd imagine that we insured the position and he stays.
- Monkeypunk

Dubas' comments yesterday during his press conference led me to believe they will look for a goalie to compliment Campbell and someone who can come in at LW.. Seems like Sandin, Liljegren, Anderson and Robertson will be given a lot of chances to make the jump permanently..
I expect a wait and see approach from Dubas

I think Holl gets you more post-expansion than he would pre because team's would have to protect their new asset.
- mjones242

Yeah I agree.

I dont think Dubas is likely to move him though.

Yup. With his galaxy analytics brain shouldn't he be finding the gems among these teams being run by moron GMs?
- mjones242

the thing is, I dont see Dubas as an analytics GM...at least he doesnt go after the guys commonly seen by public stats as good analytics.

simmonds, Bogo, Foligno all not great adds..by statsy folks standards

Nonis was 400x worse and that might be underslling it.

Burke was worse, but not as bad..he accomplished nothing
- senstroll

Nonis was worse than Burke, but at least it was short lived.

But Burke through his arrogance stopped the team from rebuilding at a time when they should been rebuilding. Trying to retool when you have no tools is sort of stupid.

Realistically, though - if we had started our rebuild then, we'd have been competing with Edmonton for the same crappy prospects. After 2009, in Burke's first year, there weren't alot of franchise guys (Hall/Seguin; RNH/Landeskog; Yakupov/Rielly/Lindholm/Forsberg; . . . MacKinnon in 2013) to be had.

Dubas' comments yesterday during his press conference led me to believe they will look for a goalie to compliment Campbell and someone who can come in at LW.. Seems like Sandin, Liljegren, Anderson and Robertson will be given a lot of chances to make the jump permanently..
I expect a wait and see approach from Dubas
- PatC80

I expect most work done in free agency for Dubas and then the trade deadline.

Marner for Eichel

IR Eichel until the playoffs

Sign Hamilton

Sign Schwartz

GO MF LEAFS GO
- Garnie

Fu3king finally

Nonis was worse than Burke, but at least it was short lived.

But Burke through his arrogance stopped the team from rebuilding at a time when they should been rebuilding. Trying to retool when you have no tools is sort of stupid.

Realistically, though - if we had started our rebuild then, we'd have been competing with Edmonton for the same crappy prospects. After 2009, in Burke's first year, there weren't alot of franchise guys (Hall/Seguin; RNH/Landeskog; Yakupov/Rielly/Lindholm/Forsberg; . . . MacKinnon in 2013) to be had.
- Monkeypunk

thats what I meant..but worded it poorly

I’m still processing this Risto trade and just thanking my lucky stars that the team I root for didn’t do it. Holy poop

Dubas' comments yesterday during his press conference led me to believe they will look for a goalie to compliment Campbell and someone who can come in at LW.. Seems like Sandin, Liljegren, Anderson and Robertson will be given a lot of chances to make the jump permanently..
I expect a wait and see approach from Dubas
- PatC80

I think it's one of those dynamics that is dependent upon opportunity and opportunity cost. They don't even get to kick the tires on UFAs until after the draft is completed, so they don't know who is interested and who isn't interested or what the price tag will be. Let's say they want Schwartz or Hoffman but the price is too high. Do you compensate by moving out Kerfoot and signing someone cheaper to fill the 3C role? If they come in cheap enough, but a nice 3C option wants to play here, then you probably look at it and move Kerfoot or he's a top-6 W option.

I don't think anyone goes into Free Agency with a concrete plan - you know what you want and who you are going to shoot for, but then you adjust as you need to.

I think Sandin and Liljegren deserve a shot. I'd like to see one of them come in and move Holl back to the third pairing. I'd like to see Robertson come in and show that he's ready to take on an offensive role in the top-9. I'd like to see something from Joey Anderson that makes us think that the move to not trade Johnsson + Dermott for Weegar was actually a good one. I'd like to see something from that Alex Steeves guy that shows he's more than just some dude with two first names. There are people like Madonna who only have one name and it's not even a first name!

But I digress. Bottom line: I think they like Kerfoot, but they don't love him. He's easy enough to upgrade from in the 3C position for cheaper, and if the cap needs are evident and the opportunity is there, I think they take it.

Maybe Dubas isn't really good at analytics or GMing?
- underhill14

So many theories

I’m still processing this Risto trade and just thanking my lucky stars that the team I root for didn’t do it. Holy poop
- RickJames77

so bad

I like Ellis, and that was a good add (short term)..and that may take the sting off the add of risto

but all the moves together..are cringy

the thing is, I dont see Dubas as an analytics GM...at least he doesnt go after the guys commonly seen by public stats as good analytics.

simmonds, Bogo, Foligno all not great adds..by statsy folks standards
- senstroll

His analytics takes werent working so those guys were a more physical/skill add, a switch from what he was doing.
Which seemed to be working until they got injured. Simmonds was great before the injury and Foligno looked decent before his.

I think it's one of those dynamics that is dependent upon opportunity and opportunity cost. They don't even get to kick the tires on UFAs until after the draft is completed, so they don't know who is interested and who isn't interested or what the price tag will be. Let's say they want Schwartz or Hoffman but the price is too high. Do you compensate by moving out Kerfoot and signing someone cheaper to fill the 3C role? If they come in cheap enough, but a nice 3C option wants to play here, then you probably look at it and move Kerfoot or he's a top-6 W option.

I don't think anyone goes into Free Agency with a concrete plan - you know what you want and who you are going to shoot for, but then you adjust as you need to.

I think Sandin and Liljegren deserve a shot. I'd like to see one of them come in and move Holl back to the third pairing. I'd like to see Robertson come in and show that he's ready to take on an offensive role in the top-9. I'd like to see something from Joey Anderson that makes us think that the move to not trade Johnsson + Dermott for Weegar was actually a good one. I'd like to see something from that Alex Steeves guy that shows he's more than just some dude with two first names. There are people like Madonna who only have one name and it's not even a first name!

But I digress. Bottom line: I think they like Kerfoot, but they don't love him. He's easy enough to upgrade from in the 3C position for cheaper, and if the cap needs are evident and the opportunity is there, I think they take it.
- Monkeypunk

I guess they like Kerfoot enough to protect him, albeit, at the low cost of a b-level prospect and a 7th rd pick in 2023.

Where I struggle is with Dubas' assertion that he'll bet everything on this group.. It just doesn't sound like someone who will be making any major changes. We have the core 4 and will just trim the edges until something works(hopefully).

In all honesty, it sounds like he is willing to go down with the ship... It is admirable, but these past two seasons proved the Leafs are not even close. So, unless he changes course, what we see is what we'll get.

Maybe Dubas isn't really good at analytics or GMing?
- underhill14

Well we know he isnt good a negotiating contracts.

Wow that was a haul for Risto.
- RickJames77

Buffalo thread is happy.

Flyers thread is...less than happy.

I think it's one of those dynamics that is dependent upon opportunity and opportunity cost. They don't even get to kick the tires on UFAs until after the draft is completed, so they don't know who is interested and who isn't interested or what the price tag will be. Let's say they want Schwartz or Hoffman but the price is too high. Do you compensate by moving out Kerfoot and signing someone cheaper to fill the 3C role? If they come in cheap enough, but a nice 3C option wants to play here, then you probably look at it and move Kerfoot or he's a top-6 W option.

I don't think anyone goes into Free Agency with a concrete plan - you know what you want and who you are going to shoot for, but then you adjust as you need to.

I think Sandin and Liljegren deserve a shot. I'd like to see one of them come in and move Holl back to the third pairing. I'd like to see Robertson come in and show that he's ready to take on an offensive role in the top-9. I'd like to see something from Joey Anderson that makes us think that the move to not trade Johnsson + Dermott for Weegar was actually a good one. I'd like to see something from that Alex Steeves guy that shows he's more than just some dude with two first names. There are people like Madonna who only have one name and it's not even a first name!

But I digress. Bottom line: I think they like Kerfoot, but they don't love him. He's easy enough to upgrade from in the 3C position for cheaper, and if the cap needs are evident and the opportunity is there, I think they take it.
- Monkeypunk

I think the cap crunch necessitates this.

I'd like to see something from that Alex Steeves guy that shows he's more than just some dude with two first names. There are people like Madonna who only have one name and it's not even a first name!

- Monkeypunk

There are no hyphenated names in the HHOF.

This should be a huge red flag for the Leafs when making trades and especially when drafting.

But I digress.

you just hate him because he's young
- TheMussel

He’s older than I am..

Buffalo thread is happy.

Flyers thread is...less than happy.
- Atomic Wedgie

Pair Risto with Ellis?

Maybe Dubas isn't really good at analytics or GMing?
- underhill14

Well, the lack of playoff success isn't exactly a resounding endorsement for his GMing up to this point.

I don't think he's awful. I don't think he's great. And there's been a lot of crazy, stupid poop that has happened in the playoffs (Kadri suspended x2, Snake getting snakebitten, Muzzin injured x2, etc.) but damn, man -- it's not a great resume thusfar.

I’m still processing this Risto trade and just thanking my lucky stars that the team I root for didn’t do it. Holy poop
- RickJames77

https://theathletic.com/n...-robert-hagg/utqLml6tmOJC

Did the Flyers pay too much?
Charlie O'Connor, Flyers beat writer: In short — yes, they did.

Ignore Hägg's inclusion in the trade — he's a throw-in included to clear cap space who would have been redundant with Ristolainen anyway. But giving up prime assets for a defenseman in Ristolainen who has struggled mightily in top-pair usage his entire career is a major, major risk on the part of Chuck Fletcher and the Flyers.

To be blunt, he's been an advanced metrics disaster. It's certainly possible that given a lesser role, Ristolainen can succeed. But to pay first- and second-round picks to take that risk? That's a massive cost, especially given Ristolainen's not insignificant cap hit ($5.4 million) and the fact that he's signed through only the 2021-22 season.

By the way, this article is free for those who don't have an Athletic subscription.

Yeah I agree.

I dont think Dubas is likely to move him though.
- Aaron_85

Agreed. He may be more valuable to the Leafs given their cap situation than other teams.

Which is really annoying but this is the world we leaf in.

the thing is, I dont see Dubas as an analytics GM...at least he doesnt go after the guys commonly seen by public stats as good analytics.

simmonds, Bogo, Foligno all not great adds..by statsy folks standards
- senstroll

Those were all acquisitions he made this past season, presumably, to offset his purely analytics driven moves.

But yeah, it could be that we're overrating his analytics brain because he wears glasses (I kid!) and that was the narrative that was sold when he was brought in as Asst. GM.

I think the cap crunch necessitates this.
- Atomic Wedgie

Every team moves players up when they’re ready regardless of the cap. I think Sandin is ready. I don’t think Dubas protected Holl to give the spot to Lilljegren. My guess is they sign a Bogo replacement and if Holl falters one of them takes his place.